Anthropic, OpenAI IPOs May Absorb Liquidity, Intensify AI Capital Competition

Hyperscaler bond surge and U.S. AI listings could divert funds from stocks, contrasting with Samsung, SK Hynix's shareholder returns

U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) companies Anthropic and OpenAI are approaching large-scale initial public offerings (IPOs), with forecasts suggesting they could absorb market liquidity. Notably, as bond issuances by hyperscalers surge, this IPO is analyzed to potentially compete not only with existing stocks but also with AI bonds.

Choi Bo-young, a researcher at Kyobo Securities, stated, "The moment large unlisted companies enter the public market, they create new supply that directly competes with existing listed stocks for the same investment funds." She added, "Just as SpaceX absorbed approximately 75 billion dollars through its June IPO, if Anthropic and OpenAI proceed with their listings, funds in the stock market could become dispersed."

Given the surge in corporate bond issuances by hyperscalers, there is a possibility that higher expected returns on stocks will be demanded. According to Kyobo Securities, the bond issuance scale of major hyperscalers is expected to expand from approximately 250 billion dollars in 2026 to 400 billion dollars in 2027.

Choi explained, "Recently, some AI data center bonds and infrastructure loans have been offering annual returns of 7-9%." She added, "Since they can secure contractual cash flows and priority repayment rights over stocks while being exposed to AI growth, AI stocks must provide sufficiently higher expected returns than these."

In contrast, Korean semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are focusing on shareholder returns based on their strong cash-generating capabilities. He explained, "While U.S. AI companies supply new stocks and debt to the market to expand investments, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are reducing the number of shares circulating in the market through share buybacks and dividends." He added, "This is a capital policy that is the opposite of global AI companies."

He further added, "Under the premise that the fundamentals of the AI industry are maintained, the relative supply-demand appeal of companies that generate cash and return it to shareholders may increase compared to those that absorb funds."

Earlier, SK Hynix announced that it would repurchase and cancel shares worth approximately 40 trillion Korean won last week and return over 50% of its cumulative free cash flow (FCF) from 2025-2027 to shareholders. Samsung Electronics also stated that it has allocated 90-100 trillion Korean won for shareholder returns in 2026 and will implement a cash dividend of approximately 30 trillion Korean won in the third quarter, including regular dividends.