Huge Aussie winners include CBA as world gears up for record-breaking Anthropic IPO

The investing world collectively lost its mind over the SpaceX IPO, which became the biggest stock market launch of all time, but another debut is gearing up to eclipse it - and there will be a few very big Aussie winners if it all goes according to plan.

Elon Musk's space company went public in June at a value of $1.77 trillion, and raised $85.7 billion in its blockbuster initial public offering, the largest in history.

The market debut of artificial intelligence start-up Anthropic, a chief rival to OpenAI, could break its record.

The maker of the Claude AI models "expects to match or beat the size" of SpaceX's deal, according to Bloomberg.

The company's bankers have told potential investors it could seek to raise "more than $100 billion" in its IPO, which could put the company's value at $2 trillion, The New York Times reported on Friday, citing two unnamed sources with knowledge of the talks.

It is hoping to launch the IPO by the end of the year, and there will no doubt be a frenzy around the world as investors look to cash in on the hype around AI.

CBA sitting on a potential goldmine

One of the biggest winners if everything goes to plan will be Commonwealth Bank (CBA), which made a strategic investment in Anthropic back in March 2025.

The goal was to secure cutting-edge AI tech to boost cybersecurity, combat fraud and launch digital tools for Australian small businesses.

It has been a huge financial win for Australia's biggest bank too.

According to CBA's latest annual report, the carrying value of its Anthropic stake sits at over $1.5 billion -- a colossal leap from just $153 million the year prior.

"The fair value of the group's investment at 30 June 2026 was determined with reference to the price of Anthropic's most recent funding round completed in May 2026, in which the group did not participate," the report said.

"Through our strategic partnership with Anthropic, our teams have been able to work closely together on some important priorities to better serve and protect our customers. We value the access to frontier models, technology and engineering expertise," Group Chief Technology Officer Rodrigo Castillo told news.com.au.

"It's important for CBA, and for other major organisations, to build deep relationships with frontier labs and global technology capability as we respond to an increasingly complex and rapidly changing environment."

MST Marquee analyst Brian Johnson crunched the numbers. He told the AFR that if Anthropic achieves its $2 trillion IPO target, CBA's estimated 0.1 per cent holding would be worth a staggering $2.9 billion.

CBA might not be the only winner, as other Australian companies have exposure to Anthropic.

Superannuation giant AustralianSuper earlier this year revealed it had Anthropic shares, and wealth firm Boman Group took part in Anthropic's earlier fundraising rounds.

AI about living standards, CBA CEO says

Despite a potential windfall coming to CBA, its CEO Matt Comyn said the bank's investment in the technology was about more than just short-term financial wins.

He said the adoption of new technology like AI needs to deliver better living standards for Australians.

In a speech earlier this year in Sydney, he said that while businesses including CBA were racing to find ways to incorporate AI and improve efficiency, there were also bigger questions that needed to be addressed.

"Ultimately, this technology needs to lead to productivity and improvements in living standards, not [corporate] valuations," he said.

More important than the next quarter or next year's financial results was the question of "how do we maximise benefits for Australia?", he said.

Mr Comyn said the introduction of any new technology was usually accompanied by predictions about problems it could cause.

"All technology shifts, early on, look like they could be a real risk, with lots of problems," he said.

These concerns have always faded over time as technology was more widely adopted, but the pace and scale of change created by AI was different, and could potentially create volatility in the economy.

"It's quite a different period to what we have seen in the past decade or more," Mr Comyn said.

He acknowledged not everyone was on board with the AI transition, and that it was causing anxiety about employment and jobs.

He warned that AI would trigger job losses, arguing that big companies such as CBA, which employs 55,000 staff, had a responsibility to face up to workforce disruption and allow employees to prepare for a difficult period of retraining and adjustment ahead.

"I think a lot of leadership has to be about making sure that we are adapting, or empowering and building capability within our people and our organisations and trying to get that balance right - which will not be easy," he said.

With the current oil shock only increasing global volatility and uncertainty, we also need to consider how the economic benefits of AI were shared, "both at a global and national level, but also across different groups within society", Mr Comyn said.

SpaceX record set to be broken

If Anthropic's IPO goes to plan and the company hits a value of $2 trillion, it would more than double the five-year-old company's previous valuation at $965 billion, reached in its last funding round in June.

Only a handful of companies including Apple, Microsoft and chip maker Nvidia have surpassed the $2 trillion mark.

After filing to go public in June, the company could reveal its public offering prospectus in the coming weeks, the Times reported, with shares possibly listed before the end of the year.

Anthropic could then beat OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, to market. That company is hoping to list its shares in 2027.

Founded in 2021 by siblings Dario and Daniela Amodei and other former executives at OpenAI, Anthropic has positioned itself as a safety-focused alternative in the AI race.

Claude Code, its coding assistant for developers, has become one of its most popular products, helping push its projected annual revenue to $47 billion.

Anthropic's commercial success has been accompanied by difficulties in meeting demand for computing power, amid a shortage of chips and servers.

Potential investors could be dissuaded by the company's difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump's administration.

In March, the government broke off its contracts with Anthropic and designated the company a supply chain risk after it refused to grant the military unfettered access to its AI models.

Anthropic called the Defence Department's move unconstitutional retaliation.