News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
SpaceX vs. Rocket Lab: Which Is the Better Space Stock to Buy Right Now?
Space stocks are on many investors' minds these days, but going all-in on this sector right now comes with considerable risk, as most rocket stocks are volatile. Still, two stocks that are no doubt near the top of many investors' watch lists are Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) and Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB). Here's which one looks like the better buy right now. Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue " Image source: Getty Images. The case for SpaceX What was once just a rocket company has morphed into an expanding technology behemoth with its sights set on both the space and artificial intelligence (AI) markets. SpaceX has highly ambitious goals for both, including colonizing Mars, launching orbital data centers, expanding its Starlink satellite internet business, and building what some analysts are calling a "sovereign AI" platform in which the company controls the AI model, chip designs, processor manufacturing, and everything in between. That's part of the appeal of SpaceX for some investors -- the company is trying big things, like developing its Starship rocket, which it says will reduce the costs of putting payloads into orbit by at least 90%, or deploying a constellation of data center satellites. Morningstar research puts the total addressable market for its Starlink connectivity business at $129 billion. And the company is making headway on some of its goals. It has 12 million Starlink internet subscribers and generated $1.9 billion in operating profit from that business in the most recent quarter. SpaceX is also making progress with its neocloud business, which leases data center capacity (Earth-bound, for now) to tech companies including Alphabet and Anthropic. That business has already signed more than $81 billion in contracts. And then there's the potential for SpaceX to merge with Elon Musk's other large company, Tesla. That could expand SpaceX's opportunities into the autonomous vehicle and humanoid robot markets, the latter of which could be worth $3 trillion by 2050, according to a Morgan Stanley forecast. The case for Rocket Lab There's some overlap between Rocket Lab and SpaceX, though Rocket Lab isn't building AI data centers or planning to merge with a humanoid robotics company (as of now). The company is instead mostly focused on launching rockets for its customers and on expanding its satellite communications network through its recently announced purchase of Iridium Communications. Rocket Lab has agreed to pay $8 billion for Iridium, and is expected to close on the deal next year, giving it 2.5 million satellite-based mobile subscribers. The service is mainly geared toward the private and government sectors, in contrast to Starlink, which caters more to customers who want at-home internet service. Iridium is profitable, with $114 million in net earnings last year, and the deal will help Rocket Lab expand its satellite communications network to better compete with SpaceX. But Rocket Lab's primary business is sending payloads into space, and in the first quarter, the company signed 31 new deals, selling more launches than it did in all of 2025. The company also has some major launch contracts already signed, including with the U.S. government to establish the satellite system for the proposed Golden Dome missile defense system. It also has contracts for missile tracking and military communications. Verdict: Rocket Lab is the better stock to buy right now While Rocket Lab isn't profitable, its loss of $0.07 per share in Q1 was an improvement from its loss of $0.12 per share in the prior-year quarter. Revenue is also growing at a healthy clip, rising 64% to $200 million. In contrast, SpaceX's sales rose just 15% in Q1 to $4.7 billion, and the company's loss of $3.29 per share was dramatically worse than its $0.41 per share loss in the year-ago quarter. SpaceX's massive losses have been fueled by sharp increases in its capital expenditures, which reached $10 billion in Q1 2026 alone, compared to $27 billion for all of 2025. That heavy spending should give investors pause, and so should the lofty valuation of its stock. SpaceX trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 94 compared to Rocket Lab's P/S ratio of 66. While neither stock is cheap, SpaceX's shares trade at a much higher premium even as the company ramps up spending and its losses widen. All of which means that Rocket Lab looks like the better space stock to buy right now. Don't miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you'll want to hear this. On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a "Double Down" stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you're worried you've already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it's too late. And the numbers speak for themselves: * Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you'd have $550,021!* * Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you'd have $60,010!* * Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you'd have $396,542!* Right now, we're issuing "Double Down" alerts for three incredible companies, available when you join Stock Advisor, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon. See the 3 stocks " *Stock Advisor returns as of July 16, 2026. Chris Neiger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Rocket Lab, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
How to Spot a Stock Market Bubble 101: Raymond James Just Placed an $800 Price Target on SpaceX, Valuing Elon Musk's Company at $10.5 Trillion
One month ago, on June 12, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space economy conglomerate, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (NASDAQ: SPCX), rewrote history with its initial public offering (IPO). The $85.7 billion raised, including the underwriters' overallotment, nearly tripled the previous IPO record holder, Saudi Aramco. But in kicking off IPO mania -- large language model developers Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to follow in SpaceX's footsteps -- SpaceX may also be fueling the final stages of an AI bubble that history suggests is waiting to pop. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks " Rarely are stock market bubble warning signs as glaring as Raymond James Financial's price target assigned to SpaceX. Image source: Getty Images. Wall Street's high-water price target foresees SpaceX reaching $800 in 2031 Given that 21 underwriters helped bring SpaceX public and received shares for doing so, it should come as no surprise that Wall Street analysts have, as a whole, presented an overwhelmingly positive outlook for the company. But Raymond James Financial analyst Brian Gesuale is a true outlier. His $800 price target by 2031 implies 451% upside, based on where SpaceX's shares ended on July 10, and assumes a valuation of roughly $10.5 trillion. For context, this would be more than double Nvidia's current market cap. Gesuale foresees SpaceX's full-year sales scaling from an estimated $38.5 billion in 2026 to approximately $837 billion by 2031. More importantly, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are projected to catapult from $17.7 billion in 2026 to $696 billion by 2031. While there's no question that AI and the space economy are two of the hottest addressable opportunities on Wall Street, several headwinds suggest Gesuale's pie-in-the-sky price target is pure fiction and the sign of an end-stage bubble that's about to burst. Image source: Getty Images. SpaceX spotlights everything wrong with Wall Street Although the stock market is a long-term wealth-creating machine, it's prone to occasional bubble-bursting events. SpaceX's current $1.91 trillion valuation and Raymond James' $800 price target for the company spotlight everything that's wrong with Wall Street over the short term. For starters, SpaceX hasn't demonstrated that its operating model is sustainable. While satellite-based broadband services provider Starlink is profitable, AI start-up xAI -- the segment responsible for the lion's share of SpaceX's $28.5 trillion addressable market -- is burning cash as Musk's company chases AI compute capacity. Elon Musk also has a terrible track record of fulfilling lofty promises and innovative expectations. As CEO of Tesla, Musk proclaimed that 1 million robotaxis would be on public roads by the end of 2020, which never happened. He's also assured investors that Level 5 full self-driving is "one year away" annually for more than a decade. Musk continually overpromises and underdelivers. SpaceX is likely to be haunted by historical precedent, as well. No company at the forefront of a game-changing technology has sustained a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio above 30 for any extended period. SpaceX is trading at roughly 50 times Gesuale's forecast sales for this year. Lastly, every game-changing technology for more than three decades has navigated an early stage bubble-bursting event. These bubbles have formed because investors constantly overestimate the optimization timeline of innovations. It'll likely be years before SpaceX's solutions are optimized, making Raymond James' high-water price target highly unlikely. Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now? Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now... and Space Exploration Technologies wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $395,679!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,294,805!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 929% -- a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. See the 10 stocks " *Stock Advisor returns as of July 14, 2026. Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Prediction: SpaceX Shares Can Reach $220 by End of 2026
Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) has become one of the market's most closely watched stocks after its rapid entry into the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7. Shares are trading close to $149 (as of July 10), still above its $135 IPO price, but nearly 34% below its post-IPO high of $225.60. This share price pullback has not ended investor interest in SpaceX, but it has changed the debate. Investors are now weighing the company's artificial intelligence (AI) compute opportunity, Starlink satellite internet network's room to expand in satellite communications, and progress on the next-generation reusable rocket system, Starship, as they assess where the stock could trade by the end of 2026. Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue " Image source: Getty Images. SpaceX has growth drivers for its revenue SpaceX is already demonstrating impressive financial momentum. Revenue rose 33% year over year to $18.7 billion in 2025. But the company still reported a net loss of $4.9 billion after merging with money-losing xAI. Starlink remains the key growth engine, supported by roughly 10.3 million users and 9,600 satellites. But AI infrastructure is also becoming the next major catalyst. Alphabet has agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs and related computing resources. Anthropic has also signed a major compute-access deal with SpaceX, securing use of SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center. Reuters reported that SpaceX's two deals are worth about $26 billion annually if fully realized. Although not all the AI revenue from these deals is expected to materialize in 2026, it still gives investors a reason to value SpaceX based on future revenue potential rather than solely on 2025 sales. SpaceX's valuation will fall, but remain expensive At the end of 2026, investors will likely be looking toward SpaceX's expected 2027 revenue, since the stock's valuation depends on how quickly Starlink, AI compute, and Starship can expand the company's sales base. SpaceX's market capitalization is close to $2 trillion. Analysts' 2026 revenue estimates range from $34.3 billion on the low end to $43.2 billion on the high end, with a base case estimate of about $38.9 billion. Hence, SpaceX is already trading at roughly 51.4 times base case 2026 sales. By the end of 2026, that multiple will most likely compress, as post-IPO excitement usually cools and investors demand evidence of execution. But it also does not need to collapse if SpaceX continues to show progress in Starlink, AI infrastructure, and Starship. A reasonable base-case assumption is that SpaceX's sales multiple compresses by about 20% to 25% from today's 51.4x 2026 sales multiple. That gives a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple range of roughly 38.5 to 41 times expected 2027 sales. Analysts expect SpaceX's 2027 revenue to range from $54.8 billion to $85 billion, with an average estimate of $72.4 billion. Applying a forward sales multiple of 38.5 to 41 times to the 2027 base case revenue estimate yields an implied market capitalization of about $2.79 trillion to $2.97 trillion. Using roughly 13.1 billion shares outstanding, that points to a share price in the range of $213 to $227 at the end of 2026. Hence, $220 is a reasonable base case estimate. It assumes that while SpaceX's valuation multiple compresses, revenue growth offsets the pressure enough to lift the share price. Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now? Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now... and Space Exploration Technologies wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $395,679!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,294,805!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 929% -- a market-crushing outperformance compared to 211% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. See the 10 stocks " *Stock Advisor returns as of July 12, 2026. Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
SpaceX Was Just Flooded With Buy Reports Across Wall Street. Do Analysts Know Something Retail Investors Don't?
This week, a wave of equity research reports from sell-side analysts was released on Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX). The big takeaway is that Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish on SpaceX stock. With so many banks publishing their first formal reports on SpaceX and coming to the same optimistic outlook, it begs the question: Does Wall Street know something retail investors don't? Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks " Why were so many reports for SpaceX stock published on the same day? When a company completes its initial public offering (IPO) and its shares begin trading, a quiet period begins. This window typically lasts between 25 and 40 days after the newly public company begins trading. During the quiet period, the investment banks that underwrote the IPO are prohibited from issuing forward-looking statements, promotional material, or equity research analysis. The rule exists to prevent the same institutions that helped price and sell the IPO stock in question from immediately hyping the deal or leaking material information that could influence market sentiment. Analysts working for the lead underwriters must remain silent because any positive research they publish too close to the offering could be viewed as an extension of the marketing effort rather than independent analysis. Once the quiet period ends, these banks are free to initiate coverage. In the case of SpaceX, this is exactly what just happened: A cluster of reports appeared on the same day because the calendar restriction had been lifted. Image source: Getty Images. What does Wall Street think of SpaceX stock? The table below summarizes the ratings and stock price targets analysts recently issued for SpaceX. Data Source: Yahoo! Finance Among the firms in the table, all gave Buy or Buy-equivalent ratings on SpaceX stock, except one. Unsurprisingly, longtime Tesla supporter and former Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is bullish on SpaceX. The price targets primarily range between $190 and $300, with notable outliers at Raymond James and MoffettNathanson. SpaceX's bullish thesis converges on three interlocking growth drivers. First, Starlink is shifting from primarily consumer broadband toward enterprise and telecommunications customers. This could unlock higher-margin contracts with government agencies, airlines, maritime operators, and large corporations that require reliable global connectivity. Second, SpaceX is positioned to support the acceleration of AI infrastructure buildouts by delivering additional capacity to hyperscalers. So far, SpaceX has signed $82 billion in infrastructure deals with Anthropic, Google Cloud, and Reflection AI. Third, operational improvements in rocket reusability and launch cadence in the Starship program stand to dramatically lower costs to orbit. These efficiencies can help expand SpaceX's addressable market for both satellite deployment and crewed missions. Taken together, these variables paint a picture of a company transitioning from a high-burn, capital-intensive launch and satellite operator into a diversified technology enabler with multidecade tailwinds. Understanding the limits of analyst price targets Wall Street analysts tend to have meaningful access to the C-Suite at large companies. By contrast, retail investors usually have a tough time getting past the Investor Relations department. With this in mind, many Wall Street analysts have access to information that most investors do not. However, they are strictly prohibited from issuing reports based solely on that information. This is all to say that even if Wall Street does know certain things that most investors do not, the price targets above are still just opinions -- not guarantees. These price targets rest heavily on modeling assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, and discount rates that can shift quickly. Blindly chasing the most optimistic targets or treating the consensus opinion as a certainty ignores the fact that the stock market tends to price in best-case scenarios before they actually materialize. Investors who rely solely on these reports risk overlooking valuation discipline, balance-sheet risk, and the possibility that even accurate long-term narratives can produce stomach-churning short-term drawdowns. While the end of the quiet period gives investors a clearer picture of professional sentiment around SpaceX stock, these views are just one data point among many. Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now? Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now... and Space Exploration Technologies wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $407,651!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,252,823!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 922% -- a market-crushing outperformance compared to 208% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. See the 10 stocks " *Stock Advisor returns as of July 9, 2026. Adam Spatacco has positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
SpaceX Officially Joined the Nasdaq-100 and Received a $300 Price Target From Wall Street. Here's Why the Stock Is Falling Anyway.
On July 7, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) joined the Nasdaq-100 -- which is the 100 largest non-financial companies by market cap listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It also received a $300 price target from Morgan Stanley, one of the Wall Street banks that underwrote SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO). Being a part of a major index is more than just name recognition. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) benchmarked to the Nasdaq-100, such as the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ), will begin buying shares of SpaceX. The more indexes a company can be a part of, the more demand is unlocked from ETF inflows -- the crown jewel being the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), because the largest ETFs in the world are linked to it. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks to buy right now, when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks " Here's why SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq-100 so quickly, and why the growth stock is falling anyway. Image source: Getty Images. SpaceX will soon be a top holding in the Nasdaq-100 The Nasdaq's new fast-track rules are meant to expedite the inclusion of megacap companies that recently had IPOs. If a company is at least as valuable as the 40th-largest Nasdaq listing, which is a market cap of around $121 billion, it can now be added to the Nasdaq-100 after its 15th trading day. SpaceX has a market cap of around $2 trillion and is the world's seventh-most valuable company -- so it clears the size hurdle with ease. SpaceX went public on June 12, but markets were closed on Juneteenth (June 19) and July 3. So, it wasn't added to the Nasdaq-100 until over three weeks after its IPO. However, SpaceX's weight in the Nasdaq-100 isn't its market cap. Rather, it is based on a multiple of the float, which is the number of shares available for trading by the public. SpaceX's float is around just 5% of its market cap. But the float could increase rapidly in the coming months. The vast majority of SpaceX stock is held by insiders who bought in when the company was private -- including institutional investors from previous funding rounds, employees, and founders. SpaceX plans to gradually unlock early-release-eligible shares through a tiered system over the next 180 days, with 20% of shares available for trading two days after the release of its earnings for the quarter ended June 30, and up to 30% if SpaceX's stock price is at least $175.50 per share. More key unlocking events will occur throughout the summer and fall. And eventually, 100% of the early-release shares will be available for trading by Dec. 9 -- which is 180 days after the IPO date. Granted, not all insiders will sell their shares and make them available for trading on public markets. Elon Musk and other significant investors have agreed to hold shares for at least 366 days after May 20, the date of SpaceX's Form S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. And many early founders still hold large positions in major tech companies, such as Musk in Tesla or Jeff Bezos in Amazon. Before the recently implemented fast-track process for larger IPOs, the Nasdaq-100 required a free float of at least 10%, meaning at least 10% of the company's shares are publicly tradable. SpaceX should cross that level even if a fraction of early-release-eligible shares are sold and made available on the Nasdaq in the coming months. If I had to guess, I'd expect SpaceX's weighting in the Nasdaq-100 to mirror its market cap by mid-August at the latest. The market is always evolving Once SpaceX is weighted by market cap, it will be a top-10 holding in the Nasdaq-100 and account for around 4% of the index. And as more blockbuster IPOs like Anthropic and OpenAI are fast-tracked into the index and reach the float requirements, they, too, could become key holdings. The rapid restructuring of the Nasdaq-100 has undoubtedly piqued the interest of index and ETF investors, especially those who regularly put their hard-earned savings to work in products benchmarked to the indexes. A common mistake investors will make is assuming that an index is diversified just because it contains hundreds or thousands of stocks. When in reality, the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 have become concentrated in a handful of names. And that concentration could increase as megacap IPOs are added. To stay even-keeled no matter what the market is doing, it's important to heed Peter Lynch's advice about knowing what you own and why you own it. That exercise is straightforward with individual stocks, where an investment thesis can anchor a key holding. But even for ETFs, it's worth recognizing some of the major themes and companies that will drive gains (or losses). By design, the major indexes can undergo drastic transformations as the economy evolves. A couple of decades ago, major oil companies, industrial conglomerates, and consumer goods companies dominated the largest S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) companies. But the tech sector now makes up a staggering 38% of the S&P 500. And Alphabet just replaced Verizon Communications in the Dow -- meaning that seven of the 30 Dow components have changed seats in the last six years. SpaceX will continue making waves on public markets SpaceX's growing share of the indexes and lofty price targets from Wall Street banks have more to do with market dynamics than SpaceX's investment thesis. The recent sell-off in the stock is likely due to fading enthusiasm as investors focus more on SpaceX's fundamentals -- which are shaky given its valuation is in the stratosphere. For the stock to be a good long-term buy for new investors, SpaceX needs to make progress on its bold plans to launch constellations of orbital artificial intelligence compute satellites and build the world's largest chip manufacturing plant in Texas in partnership with Tesla. Until that happens, SpaceX is best kept on a watch list. And investors who want to avoid the stock entirely may want to double-check that the ETFs they hold don't begin buying SpaceX, especially as its float increases in the coming months. Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now? Before you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now... and Space Exploration Technologies wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $409,970!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,200,223!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 916% -- a market-crushing outperformance compared to 210% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. See the 10 stocks " *Stock Advisor returns as of July 8, 2026. Daniel Foelber has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Verizon Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Anthropic Could Be a $1 Trillion IPO This Fall. These 2 Stocks Already Own a Piece.
The next giant public offering is already in motion. Anthropic, the artificial intelligence (AI) company behind the Claude models, confidentially filed to go public on June 1, on the heels of a funding round that raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation. Its reported annualized revenue is approaching $50 billion, and a listing reportedly could come as early as this fall. The trajectory behind those numbers has few precedents. Anthropic's reported revenue run rate was about $4 billion as recently as last July, and expectations reportedly call for $10.9 billion of revenue in the second quarter alone. Only a handful of companies listed on U.S. exchanges carry a market value above Anthropic's last private mark. Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue " Individual investors, of course, can't buy shares yet. But two of the market's most familiar names bought in years ago, and their stakes have quietly become staggeringly large paper windfalls: Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL). Which stock gives investors the better claim on the debut? Run the stakes. Image source: Getty Images. 1. Amazon: the bigger, quieter stake Amazon invested $8 billion in Anthropic convertible notes from Q3 2023 to Q4 2025, with portions later converted to nonvoting preferred stock. The company has never disclosed an ownership percentage. But estimates built from its filings put the stake in the mid-to-high teens, worth perhaps $135 billion to $160 billion at Anthropic's current valuation -- and Amazon has committed to invest up to $20 billion more. By April, the position -- $42.2 billion of convertible notes plus $32 billion of nonvoting preferred -- was already carried at more than $74 billion on paper, before the latest round could mark it higher. The mark-ups are already flowing through Amazon's results. In the first quarter, it recognized $16.8 billion of pre-tax gains included in non-operating income from its Anthropic investments -- more than 40% of its pre-tax income for the period. Set the stake against Amazon's own size, and the leverage shows. At a market value of about $2.6 trillion, a $150 billion position amounts to nearly 6% of the company. A $1 trillion IPO price would push it higher still. 2. Alphabet: the capped stake with a complication Alphabet's position is more precisely known. Court documents put it at roughly 14% of Anthropic in straight equity, contractually capped at 15% -- worth about $135 billion at the last private valuation. And in April, the company reportedly committed up to $40 billion more, with $10 billion arriving immediately and the rest tied to milestones. Alphabet's books already show a similar private-investment effect, too. Its first quarter included about $28.7 billion in net income from equity securities gains -- nearly half of a record $62.6 billion quarterly profit. But the stake lands differently at Alphabet's scale. Against a market value of about $4.4 trillion, $135 billion works out to about 3% of the company. And there's a strategic issue Amazon doesn't carry to the same degree: Alphabet competes directly with the company it part-owns, selling its Gemini models against Anthropic's Claude. Which stock gives you the better claim? A public listing changes two things for these holders. It prints a market price on stakes both companies currently value by accounting estimate, and it opens a path -- eventually -- to converting paper gains into cash. For Anthropic exposure per dollar invested, Amazon wins the math. Its estimated stake is as large as Alphabet's or larger, inside a company about 40% smaller -- so every move in Anthropic's value means roughly twice as much to Amazon shareholders as it does to Alphabet's. But there are some caveats. These are paper values, and an IPO would finally test them in a public market that can be far less generous than a private funding round. Much of both positions also sits in instruments -- convertible notes, capped equity -- whose economics differ from common stock, which is exactly why the eventual filing details matter. Still, the conclusion holds. If the reason to own one of these two stocks is Anthropic, I'd buy Amazon: the exposure is meaningfully larger relative to the company's size, and it comes without the awkwardness of funding a direct competitor. Alphabet shareholders get a fine consolation prize -- a capped-but-enormous stake, already padding reported profits. But if Anthropic prices at $1 trillion or more this fall, Amazon is the stock whose windfall is large enough to move the whole investment case. Should you buy stock in Alphabet right now? Before you buy stock in Alphabet, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now... and Alphabet wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $418,761!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,195,804!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 918% -- a market-crushing outperformance compared to 208% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. See the 10 stocks " *Stock Advisor returns as of July 5, 2026. Daniel Sparks and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet and Amazon. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.