Analysis-How the math works on a $1.75 trillion SpaceX valuation

By Medha Singh, Echo Wang and Noel Randewich

April 8 (Reuters) - Elon Musk's SpaceX is seeking a $1.75 trillion valuation in its forthcoming initial public offering. How far into the stratosphere is that?

Going by common Wall Street metrics, the answer is, way out there. SpaceX would immediately become the sixth most-valuable publicly listed U.S. firm, worth more than the likes of Meta Platforms, which has been publicly listed for more than a decade, and Berkshire Hathaway, a company older than SpaceX founder Elon Musk.

And yet, there is no sign that investors will think twice about hitting the buy button once it goes public in an IPO that could raise $75 billion or more, which would be a record. The frenzy has grown so intense that some are pouring money into opaque secondary markets, accepting complex arrangements and murky ownership just for a shot at owning the shares.

"It has almost no comparable listed peer to benchmark a valuation off of and would likely come at a significant premium to anything else that is listed in the space tech sector, given its size and market leadership," said Samuel Kerr, global head of equity capital markets at Mergermarket.

SpaceX's valuation is grounded in its profitable, fast-growing Starlink satellite network, which has over 10 million subscribers, and a launch business that analysts and investors say has transformed access to orbit. The Falcon 9, which in December 2015 became the first large rocket to make a controlled recovery after delivering a payload into orbit, completed 165 launches in 2025, a new annual record.

But analysts and portfolio managers are also pricing in considerably more. Musk's track record of building successful, industry-disrupting companies gives analysts and portfolio managers confidence that the unproven bets - Starship, xAI, and an ambitious push into data-center satellites - ⁠will eventually pay off too.

"This is a set of proven juggernaut, mega-cap businesses," said Daniel Hanson, portfolio manager at Neuberger's Quality Equity Fund, an existing SpaceX investor with close to 10% of its $2.6 billion in assets allocated to the company. "The launch business and the Starlink business are proven, here and now. xAI is about optionality," he said, referring to businesses that could add ⁠value over time as they benefit from long-term shifts toward AI, data and global connectivity.

Here's a quick look at the pros and cons ahead of the IPO.

LEADING THE SPACE RACE

SpaceX has a commanding lead in deploying the low-Earth orbit satellites that deliver internet and communications for its Starlink service from space. Starlink is profitable and accounts for roughly 50% to 80% of SpaceX's revenue.