Europe has just 6 weeks of jet fuel left, warns IEA - What passengers need to know ahead of summer flight chaos

Europe could be heading toward a serious aviation fuel crunch, with the head of the International Energy Agency warning that the region has "maybe six weeks of jet fuel left" if supply problems continue.

The warning comes as the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important shipping routes for oil and jet fuel, has remained effectively closed by Iran for more than six weeks. Tehran shut the route in response to US and Israeli attacks, sending fuel prices sharply higher and raising fears of shortages across Europe.

Why Europe is worried

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises 32 countries on energy supply and security, said in its latest monthly report that Europe's fuel stocks could reach a breaking point by June.

That could happen if European countries fail to replace at least half of the jet fuel they usually import from the Middle East. Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, told AP that flight cancellations could soon become a real possibility if supplies remain blocked.

Europe depends heavily on Middle East fuel

The IEA said Europe has historically relied on the Middle East for around 75% of its jet fuel imports. The Gulf region is one of the biggest suppliers of aviation fuel to the global market, making the Strait of Hormuz especially important.

The problem does not end there. Refineries in other exporting countries such as South Korea, India and China also depend heavily on crude oil from the Middle East. Because of that, the IEA said the crisis "has thrown a proverbial wrench into the inner workings of the aviation fuel markets".

What could happen next?

If Europe cannot replace more than 50% of its Middle East imports, "physical shortages may emerge at select airports, resulting in flight cancellations, and demand destruction." Even if Europe manages to replace three-quarters of lost supplies, similar problems could still happen by August. The agency said European markets now need to work harder to attract extra cargoes from elsewhere if enough fuel is to be available through the busy summer season.

Many airlines are already struggling with higher fuel costs, which usually make up 20% to 40% of their operating expenses. The benchmark European jet fuel price hit a record high of $1,838 per tonne at the start of April. Before the war began, it stood at $831 per tonne.

Flight cancellations could come soon

Birol warned that if the route stays blocked, cancellations may begin "soon".

European countries are now rushing to find fuel from other sources. Analysts say replacement supplies are mainly coming from the United States and Nigeria. The IEA noted that US jet fuel exports have risen quickly in recent weeks. Still, the agency warned that even if all those US shipments were sent to Europe, they would replace only a little more than half of the lost Gulf supplies.

But even with rising US exports, the IEA said those shipments would replace only a little more than half of the missing Middle Eastern supplies.

Airlines have already started reacting

KLM said it will cancel 160 flights, or 80 return services, across Europe in May because of rising fuel costs linked to Middle East tensions. The airline said this is less than 1% of its European schedule and stressed it is not facing a physical fuel shortage.

Lufthansa is speeding up the retirement of 27 older aircraft from its CityLine regional unit. The carrier said the move is linked to doubled kerosene prices and labour strikes. It is part of a bigger plan that could ground 2.5% to 5% of its fleet if the crisis worsens. Lufthansa said grounding more aircraft "may be unavoidable."

Other airlines, including Ryanair and Scandinavian Airlines, have also cut hundreds of flights in recent weeks. Some regional airlines have added fuel surcharges.

What Europe and the UK are saying

The European Commission said there is "no evidence of fuel shortages" in the EU right now. It added that crude oil supplies to refineries remain stable, but admitted there could be supply problems "in the near future."

Officials said energy coordination groups are meeting every week, with new measures expected next week. The UK government said it is working with suppliers and airlines "to ensure people keep moving and businesses are supported." UK airlines said there is currently no disruption to fuel supply.

What travellers should know now

• Passengers are being advised to keep checking flight status, as schedules may change quickly. So far, cancellations remain limited and are mostly linked to cost rather than a lack of fuel. But that could change in May and June, especially at smaller airports.

• Travellers may also face higher fares and fuel surcharges. EasyJet alone reported £25 million in extra fuel costs for March, despite having fuel prices locked in earlier.

• Major hubs such as Heathrow are expected to be safer because they would likely get fuel first.

• If a flight is cancelled, EU261 and UK261 passenger rules normally apply. However, airlines are trying to have fuel-related cancellations treated as extraordinary circumstances, which could reduce compensation rights.

• Travel insurance that covers disruption may be useful.

Summer holidays could be affected

The IEA and analysts say the pressure may grow just as Europe enters the busiest holiday travel season. Flexible tickets, backup plans, and staying updated through airline apps may help passengers manage any sudden changes.