Fuel chaos drags on: Plans like odd-even rationing yet to be

Experts point to management failures behind ongoing crisis

Despite official assurances of adequate fuel stocks, underpinned by Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) data, long queues and intermittent supply disruptions continued at filling stations across the country yesterday.

While analysts and experts have proposed measures such as an odd-even rationing system and digital tracking to manage demand and ease pressure on pumps, proposals remain sidelined, leaving motorists to endure hours-long waits and sporadic "no fuel" notices.

In response to the strain, the BPC has announced a 10-20% increase in supply of diesel, petrol and octane, with 13,048 tonnes of diesel, 1,422 tonnes of octane and 1,511 tonnes of petrol being distributed daily through three state-run marketing companies. However, the retail situation has yet to stabilise.

On the ground, the supply boost has not fully translated into availability at pumps. While waiting times have eased slightly in parts of Dhaka and Chattogram, motorists across much of the country continue to face delays and uncertainty.

Imports and stock data show no shortage

According to port and BPC sources, between 28 February and 21 April, 823,170 tonnes of fuel arrived at Chattogram port in 26 shipments.

Of this, 624,452 tonnes came as diesel in 16 vessels, 124,087 tonnes furnace oil in six, 53,364 tonnes octane in two, and 21,266 tonnes jet fuel in two. A Singapore-flagged vessel, Hafnia Cheeta, carrying 32,000 tonnes of diesel from Malaysia, docked yesterday around noon.

Based on an average daily demand of 12,500 tonnes, diesel imports over 53 days could meet around 50 days of demand. With a 12-day opening stock in early March, total availability should have covered about 65 days, indicating no supply shortage.

For octane, the country had an 18-day stock at the start of March. Imports of 53,364 tonnes, against a daily demand of 1,200 tonnes, add 45 days of supply. Local refineries produce around 700 tonnes daily, adding roughly 37,000 tonnes or 30 days' supply. Combined, availability reaches about 93 days.

Despite these figures, retail-level disruptions have continued.

Mismanagement, panic and weak oversight

The strain began between 28 February and 6 March, when over 175,000 tonnes of fuel were sold in just seven days - more than double normal demand - rapidly depleting reserves. In response, authorities introduced rationing measures, after which long queues formed across fuel stations nationwide. Many motorists were forced to wait for hours and often returned without fuel.

According to Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) and port sources, 26 vessels carrying 823,170 tonnes of fuel arrived at Chattogram between 28 February and 21 April. Of this, 624,452 tonnes were diesel, alongside furnace oil, octane and jet fuel shipments. BPC data show that, in theory, the combined stock and imports were sufficient to meet demand for extended periods.

Despite this, retail disruptions persisted, with officials announcing a 10-20% increase in daily fuel distribution to ease shortages. Yet filling stations continued to report uneven supply, shortened operating hours and "no fuel" notices.

Analysts attribute the crisis to distribution failures rather than supply shortages. They cite irregular withdrawals in early March, panic buying triggered by expectations of price hikes, and weak monitoring across depots and stations as key factors. Some fuel was reportedly hoarded, while portions may have been smuggled due to price gaps with neighbouring countries.

Former Eastern Refinery general manager Monjare Khorshed Alam said early excess demand was not contained. "If the excessive fuel supply during the first week had been controlled, the crisis would not have become so severe," he said, adding that expectations of price hikes encouraged stockpiling.

Energy expert Professor M Tamim pointed to gaps in monitoring and the absence of tracking systems, which allowed irregularities in distribution. He also criticised early signals of price increases, saying they intensified hoarding behaviour.

Experts suggest that tools such as app-based fuel tracking and odd-even number plate rationing could have helped stabilise supply and reduce congestion at pumps.