Insurers pull out as Hormuz Strait chaos deepens, Trump's threats continue

Saying that the Strait of Hormuz is closed is not strictly true. It is open, but only for those willing to run the gauntlet in a dangerous real-life version of the old arcade game Frogger where, even when the passage appears clear, there's a risk of something appearing to wipe you out.

This is why Donald Trump's Truth Social post on Sunday night, which threatened to destroy Iran's bridges and power plants on Tuesday (Wednesday US time), unless the regime unblocks the strait, rang of desperation.

The US President, despite being in control of far-superior combined US and Israeli forces that have destroyed most of Iran's military infrastructure and firepower over recent weeks, and which far outguns the regime's Revolutionary Guard Corps, dropped the f-bomb on social media because he has been unable to prise it open.

The chokepoint is barely 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, Iran sits along its northern banks and the regime has fortified coastal positions, islands and inlets over decades in anticipation that, one day, it would be attacked and feel forced to trigger global havoc.

According to the Australian Naval Institute, the size of Iran's navy ranked somewhere from 18th to 37th globally, such is the secretive nature of some countries, and was comprised mostly of small, fast-attack boats, submarines and auxiliary measures like mines and missiles designed more for deterrence in and around the Persian Gulf than ocean warfare.

There's also not much left of it.

But Iran does not need to win a conventional naval war to close the strait but only be, as it is, disruptive and threatening.

Its first aim was achieved early when maritime insurers yanked coverage for vessels traversing through the waters following the US-Israel attack on February 28.

The next objective was not to stop every ship, but to make the passage uncertain for any ship.

It has successfully done this using its house specialty of asymmetric warfare, which means that in a conflict between two sides with significantly different scales of military resources, the small dog in the fight that cannot win going toe-to-toe uses more unconventional methods, from guerilla tactics to cyberattacks, to try to best the bigger dog.

Iran uses those small and fast vessels to dart in and out in surprise attacks or to surround ships and force them to divert.

It uses sea mines that are either already bobbing in the water or which can be deployed quickly from those vessels.

The regime can also conceal themselves by using commercial vessels to drop mines, a maneuver nearly impossible to stop, and one that adds a further layer of danger to the situation with fear that any commercial vessel can be armed to the gills.

The regime does not even necessarily want or need to disguise or hide the mines given it is labor-intensive work to locate them and, when they are found, the clean-up mission can take hours, if not days.

The simple fact they are being found means insurers will not start to offer cover again.

Those fortified coastal and island positions come into play because the IRGC has stocked them with a spider web of fixed and mobile, truck-mounted ground to ship missiles and other weaponry.

The rugged and cluttered terrain reportedly makes them difficult for the Western forces, even using drones, satellite and radar, to spot and destroy.

They can be fired and moved quickly or, if destroyed, there is apparently a stockpile of replacements stashed about the place.

The Iranians are also using drones to carry explosives and harass ships or using them as decoys to draw enemy attention to allow breathing room for the missiles to perhaps not be intercepted.

Combine these tactics and the Strait becomes too risky for commercial shipping companies, one image in the media of a ship on fire or a near-miss from a drone or mine worth a thousand words.

The US and Israel have so far been unable to remove these risks and they cannot provide an escort for every vessel wanting to move through the Strait.

Because, clearly, given the pressure being poured on the US and Israel by the international community and, particularly President Trump within America over rising fuel and living costs - if they could, they would.

It is why the President late last week told nations wanting shipping to re-open to roll up their sleeves and do it themselves.

But they refused to entertain that idea and so he took to Truth Social to say: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all up wrapped up in one, in Iran".

"There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F***kin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH!," he wrote.

Meanwhile, in Tehran, the Strait is seen as the last of the skin the regime has in the game and, while it likely acknowledges internally that it cannot seal it up indefinitely, long enough is all it needs while waiting for the right deal to come along.