Meta's rumored Polymarket rival wants you to literally bet on the future

Arena is still under development and may never launch, but the reported project has already attracted criticism from lawmakers concerned about Meta's growing focus on engagement-driven products.

The internet has always loved making predictions. Whether it's guessing who will win an election or which team will lift a trophy, people enjoy putting their confidence behind a forecast and seeing if they're right. Over the past few years, that habit has evolved into a booming business through prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, where collective opinion effectively becomes a real-time indicator of what people think will happen next. And now, Meta reportedly wants in.

According to a report from The New York Times, Mark Zuckerberg has tasked a team with building a new app called "Arena." The project is said to focus on predictions, but with one important distinction: users won't be wagering actual money. Instead, the experience would revolve around video game points, rankings, and competition, turning forecasting into a game rather than a betting platform.

The company has spent years perfecting products that encourage participation. Likes, comments, shares, reactions, stories, followers -- many of Meta's biggest successes are built around giving users a reason to engage repeatedly. A prediction platform fits neatly into that playbook. Give people a question, let them pick a side, track who was right, and suddenly you've created another social activity people want to check every day. Arena could simply give those conversations a scoreboard.

What's interesting is that Zuckerberg isn't exactly exploring unfamiliar territory here. Meta experimented with a similar concept several years ago through an app called Forecast (via TechCrunch), which invited users to predict future events using a points-based system. The project never became a mainstream hit and was eventually shut down, but it appears the company hasn't completely abandoned the idea.

The difference today is that prediction markets are no longer a niche curiosity. They have become one of the internet's fastest-growing categories. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted significant attention by turning public predictions into markets of their own.

The New York Times report quickly drew criticism from Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal, who argued on X that Meta's history should raise concerns about moving into prediction-based products. His reaction is a reminder that any new Meta initiative, especially one designed to keep users engaged, is likely to face scrutiny long before it reaches consumers.