New Polymarket Accounts Made Big Bets on Ceasefire

One account created on day of announcement made fast $200K profit

A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent, the AP reports. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8pm Eastern deadline.