OpenAI and Anthropic face Wall Street's quarterly test

OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX are moving toward public markets at a moment when investor tolerance for merely strong AI growth appears to be narrowing. Their expected listings are not just fundraising events. They are a test of whether the most closely watched AI companies can convert private-market enthusiasm into public-market discipline.

OpenAI has announced plans to go public, following Anthropic's confidential IPO filing last week. SpaceX, which includes Elon Musk's AI company xAI, is set to make its market debut on Friday. Together, the offerings could give investors the clearest view yet of AI's commercial momentum and may generate hundreds of billions of dollars in stock sales.

The bigger change is governance by quarterly results. Companies that built their valuations in private markets will now face investors who expect evidence of rapid growth every reporting period. "Expectations that seem manageable in private markets can become relentless under the glare of public ownership," Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, told CNN.

Why strong numbers may not be enough

The recent reaction to Broadcom shows the risk. The company, which previously struck partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic, reported 48% revenue growth for the second quarter and expected semiconductor growth of 180% compared with last year. Yet its shares fell more than 13% last week, their worst week since September 2024.

That response matters because it suggests Wall Street is already applying a demanding standard to AI-linked companies. Chip stocks also fell late last week, the Nasdaq declined for three consecutive days, the S&P 500 had its worst day since October, and an ETF tracking memory chip stocks dropped 15%.

"People want more," Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said of chip stocks. "They always want more."

The market will ask harder questions

OpenAI and Anthropic have disclosed striking growth signals voluntarily. OpenAI said it raised $122 billion in March, lifting its valuation to $852 billion, and said it was generating $2 billion in monthly revenue, up from $1 billion per quarter previously. ChatGPT also became the fastest app to reach one billion users last month, according to Sensor Tower.

Anthropic said its valuation rose from $380 billion in February to $965 billion in May. It also said it reached $47 billion in run-rate revenue, while Ramp data showed more businesses used Anthropic than OpenAI for the first time in May.

Those figures will become only the opening argument. Public investors will likely press Sam Altman and Dario Amodei on infrastructure spending, model-release delays, future products and how new models become paid offerings. Product pivots, including OpenAI's decision to shutter Sora, may also draw more scrutiny.

"Private investors can back a vision and wait years for results," Green said. "Public markets rarely offer that luxury."