Polymarket and Kalshi Are 'Likely' Underestimating Odds of Crypto Bill Passage Due to Insider Trading Restrictions, Says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

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Tom Lee, co-Founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said on Tuesday that the Clarity Act has stronger passage odds than shown in prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Tom Lee 'Bullish' on Clarity Act Passage

Lee drew attention to comments by Sean Farrell, Fundstrat's head of digital asset strategy, who argued that prediction markets are not fully reflecting "informed expectations" about the bill's passage.

Farrell said that "recent restrictions" were preventing Senators from trading on the outcome, and placed "less weight" on the quoted probability.

Lee endorsed Farrell's view, stating that Polymarket and Kalshi markets "likely underestimate" the odds of passage.

"This is bullish," the Wall Street analyst added.

Love this take from @SeanMFarrell on Clarity Act odds of passage:

• his convos with policymakers show higher odds than seen in prediction markets

• "recent restrictions" prevent insiders from trading on this outcome

Hence, @Polymarket and @Kalshi markets likely underestimate... pic.twitter.com/3StlyKnxUk

-- Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com (@fundstrat) July 21, 2026

How Soon Until We Get 'Clarity'?

As of this writing, Polygon-based Polymarket prices the odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 at 47%, while Kalshi gives it a 49% chance.

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Polymarket odds jumped 4 percentage points over the last 24 hours, following reports that the White House agreed to add an ethics provision to the Clarity Act, a key sticking point that has kept the bill tied up amid President Donald Trump's cryptocurrency business interests.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that Congress is at the "1-yard line" on the Clarity Act, urging lawmakers to pass the legislation before the August recess.

Democrats have long demanded stronger guardrails around President Donald Trump's cryptocurrency businesses as a non-negotiable condition for their votes, and since the legislation requires 60 Senate votes to overcome a filibuster, bipartisan agreement is now mathematically required.

Trump's financial disclosures revealed he earned roughly $1.4 billion from cryptocurrency ventures last year, including World Liberty Financial and the Official Trump memecoin.