Polymarket WTI Oil Bets Surge on Iran Conflict and $120

Polymarket traders pushed bets on a $120 WTI price this month higher after a U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle went down over Iran on Friday. The implied odds rose to 77% from 36% two days earlier. Traders tied the repricing to fears that Operation Epic Fury, the five-week U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, could tighten supply through the disrupted Strait of Hormuz.

The move extended a broader bullish turn in oil bets. A poll with more than $4 million in assets showed 69% odds of WTI reaching $120 this month. The same market placed the chance of $130 at 41%.

At the same time, traders expect the war to last longer than Donald Trump projected. In a Wednesday speech, Trump said he expected the war to end within two weeks. However, geopolitical experts see a longer conflict because Iran is not rushing toward a settlement.

Could oil keep climbing if the conflict outlasts Washington's timeline? Polymarket data showed the odds of a this month had fallen to 22%. Iranian officials believe a premature truce could invite another attack within months, a cycle Israel calls mowing the lawn.