Prediction market prices 78% chance Anthropic will be worth more than Berkshire Hathaway by year end

Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction platform, is pricing in a 78% probability that Anthropic, the maker of the Claude family of artificial intelligence models, will reach a $1.5 trillion valuation by the end of 2026.

That level would put it neck and neck with Meta and value it at roughly $500 billion more than Berkshire Hathaway.

The market, which has attracted nearly $960,000 in trading volume since launching on 19 May, uses pricing data from Nasdaq Private Market to track Anthropic's implied private valuation, which currently sits at roughly $959 billion.

The $1 trillion threshold is already considered a near certainty at 97%, with $1.25 trillion at 90%, suggesting the real debate among traders is whether Anthropic can close the gap on the world's most valuable listed companies before it even reaches the public market.

The confidence reflects a remarkable trajectory over the past year.

Anthropic closed a $30 billion Series G round in February 2026 at a $380 billion post-money valuation, led by GIC and Coatue with participation from Microsoft, Nvidia, Sequoia Capital and others.

Just three months later, the company entered early talks to raise at least another $30 billion at a pre-money valuation exceeding $900 billion.

On secondary platforms such as Forge Global, shares were already trading at implied valuations approaching $1 trillion by late April.

The underlying business momentum is equally striking.

Chief executive Dario Amodei disclosed in early May that annualised revenue had hit $30 billion, representing roughly 80 times growth in the first quarter of 2026 alone, driven by enterprise adoption and the rapid scaling of Claude Code, which reached $2.5 billion in annualised revenue by February.

Anthropic is widely expected to pursue an initial public offering as early as October, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley engaged as underwriters.

Combined with the planned listings of SpaceX and OpenAI, the three companies represent more than $3 trillion in combined valuation, making 2026 the most concentrated AI IPO year on record.

The Polymarket contracts are part of a broader push by the platform into private company milestones, giving retail speculators a way to express a view on companies they cannot yet buy on a public exchange.

At current odds, the market is effectively saying the question is not whether Anthropic joins the trillion-dollar club, but whether it leapfrogs some of the most storied names in American capitalism on its way there.