Rocket Lab (RKLB) vs. SpaceX IPO: Which Space Stock Deserves Your Money? - Blockonomi

Trading at a $49 billion valuation, RKLB carries a price-to-sales multiple of 74, indicating sky-high expectations are already baked into shares.

While Wall Street obsesses over SpaceX's forthcoming public debut, Rocket Lab (RKLB) has been steadily accumulating launch successes. The company deployed eight satellites into orbit for Japan's JAXA on April 22 -- marking its second dedicated JAXA mission in recent months and its eighth orbital launch this year.

Rocket Lab USA, Inc., RKLB

Peter Beck, Rocket Lab's CEO, positioned Electron as "the preferred small launcher for national space agencies." The mission carried diverse payloads: an ocean surveillance satellite, an educational platform, a multispectral imaging demonstration unit, and an innovative origami-inspired antenna capable of expanding to 25 times its stowed dimensions.

The launch proceeded flawlessly. And its timing couldn't be more significant.

SpaceX leadership recently convened with investment bankers to orchestrate a June public offering. The projected valuation sits at $1.75 trillion -- positioning it as the world's eighth-most-valuable enterprise, surpassing both Tesla and Meta. Unusually, retail investors may receive a 30% allocation, dramatically exceeding the standard 5-10% offering.

This elevated retail participation has sparked concern among market observers. Some analysts caution it could transform SpaceX shares into meme-stock territory, where price movements detach from underlying business performance.

According to private market intelligence firm Sacra, SpaceX recorded 18% revenue growth throughout 2025. While respectable in isolation, this figure represents a dramatic slowdown from 51% expansion in 2024 and 89% in 2023. The trend reversal demands attention.

The xAI transaction adds another layer of complexity. SpaceX completed its acquisition of Elon Musk's artificial intelligence venture in February through a $250 billion stock transaction. AI remains fiercely competitive, and the integration has proven expensive. According to reporting by The Information, SpaceX recorded $5 billion in losses during 2025, predominantly attributable to AI-related expenditures.

Anyone purchasing shares at a $1.75 trillion valuation is essentially wagering on substantial future expansion from an enterprise already experiencing growth deceleration and absorbing significant red ink.

Rocket Lab operates with a $49 billion market capitalization and sports a price-to-sales ratio of 74. By conventional standards, this represents expensive territory. Such a demanding multiple leaves minimal margin for error.

The company's forthcoming major milestone involves Neutron, a larger-class rocket engineered to challenge SpaceX's Falcon 9 more directly. Launch is anticipated later in 2026. Any schedule slippage could trigger sharp stock declines.

RKLB shares have oscillated between $20.23 and $99.58 during the trailing 52 weeks, illustrating substantial volatility. The company maintains a gross margin of 31.66%.

Nevertheless, at $49 billion versus $1.75 trillion, Rocket Lab presents considerably more headroom for percentage-based appreciation -- assuming operational excellence continues.

The recent JAXA deployment represented Rocket Lab's second dedicated mission for the Japanese agency within months, following the RAISE-4 launch in December 2025.