SpaceX Starship Success Sparks Rebound Hopes

First post-listing test flight success raises questions on reversing stock's 50% decline since IPO

Amid a halving of SpaceX's stock price since its listing, the U.S. space company's recent successful test flight of its massive Starship spacecraft has drawn attention to the possibility of a stock rebound.

◇First Test Flight Success Post-Listing

According to major foreign media including Reuters on the 26th, SpaceX completed the 13th test flight of Starship on the 24th (local time). Starship was launched from Starbase in Texas, U.S., around 5:50 p.m. local time, and separated 20 Starlink V3 test satellites at an altitude of approximately 200 km. SpaceX then successfully communicated with each satellite and received data, while the upper stage of the Starship rocket completed its flight after about an hour and splashed down in the Indian Ocean.

Elon Musk, SpaceX's CEO, stated via social media X on the same day, "Starship is floating intact in the ocean and transmitting telemetry data." While industry observers noted issues with some engines failing to reignite properly during the booster's descent, leading to a faster-than-planned splashdown, the overall assessment was that the test was "largely successful."

◇Halved Stock Price: Will It Rebound?

This launch, the first test flight since SpaceX's stock market listing, is being closely watched as a potential signal for a stock rebound. SpaceX's stock has recently shown sluggish performance. According to Investing.com on the 26th, SpaceX closed at $115.07 on the 24th, 14.8% below its initial public offering price of $135. After gaining attention as the largest-ever IPO, SpaceX's stock surged 19.22% on its first trading day on the 12th, followed by gains of 19.6% on the 15th and 4.82% on the 16th, reaching a high of $201.8. However, it later reversed course and fell to half its value within a month.

A source from the financial investment industry said, "SpaceX's stock has faced downward pressure due to concerns over massive AI investments funded by debt, and since its performance has not yet been proven, investor sentiment remains weak. The key question is how much this successful launch of a large spacecraft can boost investor expectations."

◇Divergent Stock Forecasts

Global investment banks (IBs) are divided in their forecasts for SpaceX's stock. Morgan Stanley set a 12-month target price of $300, while Morningstar valued SpaceX at $63.

The market is focusing on SpaceX's first earnings announcement scheduled for August 4 and the upcoming "lock-up release" of insider shares, which had been restricted from sale for a period after the listing. The volume to be unlocked in early August is known to be approximately 20% of the protected shares, or 911.6 million shares.

Seo Sang-young, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, "Short-term selling pressure from the sequential unlocking of protected shares, starting after the August 4 earnings announcement, is fueling anxiety and contributing to the decline." However, some argue that the stock could rebound due to positive expectations ahead of the earnings report and the elimination of the lock-up risk.