
The most valuable asset in the SpaceX IPO isn't likely to be the stock.
It certainly won't be the valuation.
In fact, the financial metrics Wall Street will obsess over in the first few weeks of trading are a distraction!
We will look back on the SpaceX IPO as the "tipping point of visibility" for the space industry and recognize it as one of the most important investment events of the decade.
Only Wall Street will care to remember its price to sales ratio, but that's what you're going to hear about right now.
If it goes public at an expected valuation of $1.75 trillion its price to sales ratio will be a nerve-racking 93.
For context, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are currently trading at price-to-sales ratios of about 3 and 5, respectively.
Here's where SPCX will fall relative to today's hot stocks, ordered by market cap...
The size of the IPO measured in market cap is historic, but the valuation is not, and remember the company is almost 25 years old.
In 1995 a long-forgotten company was formed and when public all in the span of less than a year.
This company changed my life and it changed your life too.
At the time of its IPO, this little known company had only $16 million in sales, it had losses of $4 million and yet the market rewarded investors with a valuation of $3 billion.
At that valuation its price to sales was a staggering 187 - double what SPCX is expected to price at.
This piece of history is analogous to what's about to happen with the SPCX IPO and it is a gift to investors to see what's coming before history repeats.
Summary: Markets remain in a broadly bullish risk-on environment, with the DOW making new highs, volatility falling to its lowest levels since January, and leadership from semiconductors, retail, and growth stocks supporting continued upside momentum across both domestic and international equities. However, mixed internals, weak breadth divergences, rising rate volatility, and lagging crypto and communication sectors suggest underlying participation remains uneven and could lead to short-term consolidation despite the strong headline indexes.
The market remains in a constructive risk-on environment, so the primary strategy is to stay net long while becoming more selective and tactical as momentum stretches on the weekly timeframe and internals remain mixed. Focus on buying pullbacks rather than chasing extended names, particularly in leading areas such as Semiconductors, Retail, Growth, and selective international exposure, while maintaining tighter risk controls given weakening breadth and elevated rates volatility.
Raise trailing stops modestly tighter than normal due to: