Three Polymarket Traders Score Big With Well-Timed Bet on US-Iran Ceasefire

Three traders on the blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket secured outsized returns after placing well-timed bets on a United States-Iran ceasefire, according to onchain analytics firm Lookonchain.

The wallets wagered on a "yes" outcome in the platform's US-Iran ceasefire market at probabilities ranging between 2.9% and 10.3%, with all three placing their initial positions within 26 hours of President Donald Trump's conditional two-week ceasefire announcement on April 7.

Trump's announcement came after Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage, de-escalating weeks of military tension that had sent oil prices soaring and rattled global financial markets. The ceasefire, partly mediated through Pakistan, allows for negotiations between a US 15-point plan and Iran's 10-point proposal, covering nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, and regional de-escalation.

The timely trades have reignited debate over possible insider activity on prediction platforms. Polymarket's Iran-related markets have attracted more than $163 million in cumulative trading volume since the conflict began on Feb. 28, 2026, making them among the most actively traded geopolitical contracts in the platform's history.

The platform has faced mounting criticism in recent months after multiple instances of suspiciously well-timed trades tied to US military actions.

The Times of Israel reported in late March that eight newly created accounts wagered nearly $70,000 on a ceasefire before March 31, standing to gain close to $820,000. The accounts appeared shortly after Trump hinted on Truth Social that he was considering winding down strikes.

Ben Yorke, a former research analyst at Cointelegraph Consulting, told The Guardian that fresh wallets with no prior history are a common marker of potential insider trading. "Typically, when you see wallet-splitting and deliberate attempts to obfuscate identity, it's one of two scenarios: either a very large investor trying to shield their position from market impact, or insider trading," said Yorke.

Democratic Senator Chris Murphy introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, which would prohibit platforms like Polymarket from hosting bets on government actions, terrorism, and war.

Polymarket responded by updating its rules to clarify that trading on stolen confidential information or by individuals who could influence an outcome is prohibited.

Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are reportedly investigating whether profitable bets placed on prediction markets violated insider trading and other laws. Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., has invested in Polymarket through his venture capital firm and serves as a strategic adviser for rival platform Kalshi, adding another layer of complexity to the regulatory conversation.

Despite the controversy, prediction markets continue to attract significant capital. The ceasefire announcement sent the April 7 contract to 100% resolution, rewarding early bettors while raising fresh questions about the intersection of geopolitics, crypto, and market integrity.