Trio of Polymarket Accounts Made $600,000 Betting on Iran Cease-Fire

Three accounts on Polymarket earned more than $600,000 by correctly betting on a U.S.-Iran cease-fire, weeks after they made an earlier round of profitable wagers on the U.S. attacking Iran, according to blockchain research firm Bubblemaps.

The accounts started buying cease-fire contracts in late March and early April, during a stretch when traders assessed the chances of a truce at less than 35%. One of them was placing cease-fire bets on the crypto-based prediction market until the last hours before President Trump announced the cease-fire on Tuesday evening.

Not all their bets paid off. The three accounts lost money on wagers that the U.S. and Iran would reach a cease-fire by March 31. But they more than made up for those losses by buying contracts that would pay off if a truce was reached by April 7 or 15.

"Their track record of correctly calling surprise attacks on Iran suggests they may have access to better information than most," Bubblemaps wrote in a post on X.

The accounts are called ElonfaX89678, Skoobidoobnj and djijaij83jdo4jdlwjflsg after recently being renamed.

Earlier, Bubblemaps identified the accounts as part of a cluster of Polymarket accounts that had collectively earned $1.2 million by bets on the U.S. attacking Iran by Feb. 28. Skoobidoobnj had previously made accurate bets on Israel attacking Iran in June 2025, Polymarket data shows.

Blockchain data indicates the accounts are connected, including through the use of the same address on crypto exchange Binance, according to Bubblemaps.

Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal.