A Polymarket trader made $300,000 betting on Biden's pardons, a new analysis shows

In the final hours of President Biden's term, a Polymarket trader made around $300,000 correctly betting on Biden's last-minute pardons, according to new data provided to NPR by an analytics firm that examines cryptocurrency transactions.

As Biden issued a wave of pardons just hours before leaving the White House, the Polymarket trader bet big on four names, with the odds of those pardons occurring rapidly dropping to near zero on the prediction market site.

The trader, whose identity is not publicly known, placed around $64,000 worth of bets that Biden would issue pre-emptive pardons for Jim Biden, the former president's brother, former Rep Liz Cheney, Sen. Adam Schiff, former Rep. Adam Kinzinger -- all prominent critics of President Trump. While none were ever charged with crimes, all four were given pardons to shield them against possible prosecution in Trump's second term.

A month earlier, the same bettor placed a well-timed wager on Polymarket that Biden's son, Hunter, would receive a pardon over gun and tax charges.

Together, those five bets netted the trader $316,346 in profits, according to an analysis by the Paris-based analytics company Bubblemaps, which shared its findings exclusively with NPR.