A SpaceX IPO Could Shift Attention Away From Tesla, and Dip Buyers Should Be Ready

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The big SpaceX IPO is coming, and it could probably become the new, more exciting way to bet on Elon Musk's vision of the future. Once the SpaceX-xAI IPO finally does go live on the public markets, it might make a $1.75-2 trillion splash that shifts the mix of portfolios across the globe. For now, time will tell what the right valuation on the mega-IPO will be, if there's enough hype to move the needle on the AI-savvy space behemoth, and what the implications will be for shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA | TSLA Price Prediction), which Musk surely isn't forgetting about.

While I'm sure the many Musk followers won't forget about Tesla, especially as it becomes more like a robotics titan, with Optimus and Cybercab, and less of an electric vehicle (EV) seller, I do think that it's not out of the ordinary to envision some investors ringing the register with Tesla to have enough dry powder ready to punch a ticket to SpaceX, if not for Starlink and the rocket launches, perhaps for xAI and Elon Musk's take on the AI revolution.

The SpaceX-xAI is exciting, but we can't forget about Tesla

Indeed, it would probably be nice to see SpaceX absorb Tesla at some point down the line. There's been quite a bit of speculation over such a mega-merger. But, for now, Tesla stock could stay in a bit of a rough patch alongside many of the Magnificent Seven names. And until the Optimus tailwind takes hold, perhaps 2026 could continue to be more of a "breather" year for the stock, as momentum traders look for something that rides more hyper-growth themes.

As to whether SpaceX deserves Tesla's spot within the Magnificent Seven remains to be seen. Certainly, Tesla stock has been less than magnificent in recent months after a brief spill into bear market territory. Still, as we learn more about Optimus and the ambitious Terafab project, I do think that the stock might be more deserving of a "free pass" of sorts.

Depending on how heated the SpaceX IPO is, I actually think Tesla has what it takes to be just as exciting a growth play, especially once Optimus starts building itself and we enter some sort of recursive production. Production kicks off this summer, and as the robots continue to learn, there's no question that the firm will eventually find itself on the highway to autonomous production.

Of course, it's hard to tell what's more exciting, the rise of humanoid robots or space-based AI data centers. Even as SpaceX steals more of the headlines, I think owning both Tesla and SpaceX makes the most sense for the complete Elon Musk package. Perhaps when Optimus is ready to head to the moon or Mars, it'll be time to combine the two Musk entities into one gigantic titan.

The bottom line

If there's anything the average portfolio lacks, it's probably a profitable space business with a differentiated AI business.

While it will be interesting to see how the two $1-trillion-plus Elon Musk titans stack up over the years as the AI boom starts bringing in serious cash flows, I do think that Tesla investors might wish to fasten their seatbelts in case the SpaceX IPO launch causes some big waves.

Personally, I think any exaggerated swings tied to a rotation out of Tesla and into SpaceX could be more of an opportunity than a red flag to run for the exits. In the earlier days, SpaceX's gains shouldn't take anything away from Tesla. In fact, in a rational market, the two may very well rise together, especially given Tesla's newly converted stake in the space titan and given the synergies to be had.

In short, if Tesla wobbles as SpaceX launches, it might be a chance to buy the former as one waits for the latter to calm.