Betting on a missing US pilot? Polymarket apologises for 'DISGUSTING' wager amid Iran war

Should people be allowed to bet on a missing soldier's fate? Polymarket faces backlash after users wagered on a downed US pilot's rescue timeline, prompting outrage from Seth Moulton. Where do we draw the line?

Polymarket, a prediction market that lets users wager on a variety of real-life happenings, has come under fire for allowing people to place bets on the fate of an American F-15 fighter pilot who went MIA during the Iran war. The pilot, who has since been rescued, was shot down over Iran on Good Friday (Apr 3). The wager was eventually removed after a Massachusetts congressman called it out publicly for insensitivity.

The wager was on whether the downed American pilot would be found alive and, if so, when. Polymarket, one of the more prominent prediction market sites, briefly hosted a market asking users to bet on what date the US would confirm the missing F-15 pilot had been located. The airman had been shot down over Iran during an active search and rescue operation. At the time the market was live, 63 per cent of bettors were wagering the pilot wouldn't be found until Saturday.

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It was removed on Friday after Rep. Seth Moulton, a Massachusetts Democrat and combat veteran, called it out publicly. However, the fact that it went up in the first place says something about where the lines are -- or aren't -- on these platforms right now.

The F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet with two pilots aboard was shot down over southern Iran, the first such incident since the start of the war. While the first pilot was rescued by the US forces soon after, the second had remained missing behind the enemy lines as American and Iranian forces raced to locate him. Reports suggested that the second crew member from the downed F-15E has now been recovered after a "heavy firefight".

Moulton, a combat veteran, posted a screenshot on X with a short caption: "This is DISGUSTING." He pointed out that the page had gone up while the search was still ongoing, and the pilot's status was entirely unknown. "They could be your neighbour, a friend, a family member," he wrote. "And people are betting on whether or not they'll be saved."

He also pointed out that President Donald Trump is an investor in the "dystopian death market."

Polymarket pulled the wager and acknowledged it shouldn't have gone live. "It should not have been posted, and we are investigating how this slipped through our internal safeguards," the company said. It did not offer much beyond that.

Moulton wasn't satisfied. "Taking down this particular bet after I called it out can only be the first step," he said, noting that 219 other war-related betting markets remained active on the platform. He called for all of them to be removed.

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Polymarket claims it doesn't profit from geopolitical markets, though that framing has done little to quiet the criticism. The episode is part of a larger, uglier story unfolding around prediction markets and the Iran war. Earlier this month, six suspected insiders were found to have made roughly $1.2 million on contracts tied to strikes on Iran -- including an alleged $550,000 payout connected to the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.