Brit shoppers warned of 10% food price explosion sparked by Middle East chaos

Brits could end up paying more at the supermarket(Image: Tara Moore via Getty Images)

Food prices could rocket by 10 per cent this year, even if the Middle East conflict is swiftly resolved, industry leaders have cautioned. The Food and Drink Federation, a trade body, has ramped up its prediction for the anticipated rise in food and drink prices this year from 3.2% to between 9% and 10%.

This projection hinges on the assumption that the crucial Strait of Hormuz will reopen within three weeks and energy production in the Middle East will return to normal within a year.

The FDF, representing 12,000 food and drink manufacturers, has significantly adjusted its forecasts from those it held in September last year.

This shift has been triggered by the effective shutdown of the Strait and disruption and damage to energy infrastructure in the region since the war between the US, Israel and Iran kicked off at the end of February, reports the Mirror.

The conflict has caused Brent crude oil and natural gas prices to soar to their highest level since 2022.

Disruptions to oil and gas markets are directly and immediately impacting production costs for UK food and drink manufacturers, the FDF said, as it's an industry that heavily relies on energy for the manufacturing process.

Many larger businesses can "hedge" costs by securing energy contracts, but they're bracing for steep price hikes when contracts expire, according to the FDF.

Meanwhile, it noted that smaller producers tend to purchase energy "on the spot" and were already feeling the pinch of higher prices.

Dr Liliana Danila, FDF's chief economist, said: "The food and drink sector is already feeling the force of this geopolitical shock.

"As one of the UK's energy intensive industries, manufacturers are facing mounting energy bills, rising transport and packaging costs and disruption across key supply chains. These pressures are hitting simultaneously, and are a significant challenge for businesses to absorb."

She added: "The current situation is unprecedented and hard to predict, however given the scale and speed of these cost increases, and despite companies' best efforts not to pass price increases on, it's clear that food inflation is going to rise in the months ahead."

Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said: "Forecasts that food inflation will approach double digits is deeply concerning. The war in the Middle East underlines just how quickly our dependence on fossil fuels can cost us.

"Petrol prices have risen sharply, and businesses are already reporting higher costs for energy, transport, fertiliser and other inputs. While oil and gas companies' profits will likely rise, families will foot the bill through higher shopping and energy bills."

"When Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a fossil fuel crisis, it helped drive a sharp rise in food prices. Across 2022 and 2023, households ended up paying around £600 more for food, with climate impacts on food production also adding to those costs. With wages still not having caught up, food remains less affordable for many families than it was before.

"With scientists warning that El Niño could return sooner than expected and intensify the extreme heat that climate change is already driving around the world, food production is in jeopardy. 2026 is shaping up to be another year in which conflict and climate risks become a costly reality."