Mirae Asset, buoyed by 'SpaceX' effect, battles Korea Investment for No. 1 in net profit

Q1 Net Profit Seen at 890 Bln Won for Mirae Asset, 560 Bln Won for Korea Investment

Some See One-Off Gains; "Korea Investment Has a Stronger Earnings Base"

Attention is focusing on whether Mirae Asset Securities can overtake Korea Investment & Securities to reclaim the top spot in net profit among brokerages. The outlook comes as the firm is expected to post the industry's largest profit on the back of returns from investments in global innovative companies and solid brokerage performance. The last time Mirae Asset Securities ranked No. 1 in net profit was in 2020. Still, Korea Investment remains a formidable rival, suggesting that the earnings race over the remaining nine months of the year will be intense.

According to FnGuide, a financial data provider, on March 30, the market consensus for Mirae Asset Securities' first-quarter net profit stood at 886.2 billion won, up 243.2% from 258.2 billion won a year earlier. That is more than 200 billion won higher than the estimated first-quarter net profit of 560.3 billion won for Korea Financial Holdings, the parent of Korea Investment & Securities. While the figures remain forecasts, if realized, Mirae Asset Securities would reclaim the No. 1 spot in first-quarter net profit for the first time in six years since 2020.

Competition between Mirae Asset Securities and Korea Investment & Securities, often referred to as the brokerage industry's "big two," has been fierce for years. After its merger with Daewoo Securities, Mirae Asset Securities closely trailed Korea Investment & Securities from 2017 to 2019 by margins of just 20 billion won to 30 billion won, before rising to the top of the industry in 2020 with net profit of 834.3 billion won.

However, it surrendered the top spot to Korea Investment & Securities the following year, and then to Meritz Securities in 2023. In particular, in 2023, its net profit fell to 337.9 billion won, dragging it down to seventh place in the industry. In 2024 and 2025, it had to watch Korea Investment & Securities set new records for annual net profit above 1 trillion won in back-to-back years.

This year, however, market expectations suggest a different tone. Current estimates put full-year net profit at 2.2097 trillion won for Mirae Asset Securities and 2.0699 trillion won for Korea Financial Holdings.

The key driver behind the turnaround is investment in global innovative companies. Since 2022, Mirae Asset Securities, together with affiliates Mirae Asset Capital and Mirae Asset Venture Investment, has invested a total of 610 billion won in three Elon Musk-linked companies: SpaceX, X (formerly Twitter), and xAI. The estimated value of the Mirae Asset Group's holdings in SpaceX and related assets stands at around 1.2 trillion won.

SpaceX is targeting a New York stock market listing in June. If its corporate value rises during the initial public offering process, Mirae Asset Securities' valuation gains would also increase. SpaceX was valued at $1.25 trillion, or about 1,880 trillion won, in an assessment tied to its merger with xAI in February. The market expects that figure to rise by more than 40% to as much as $1.75 trillion, or about 2,640 trillion won, after the IPO is completed.

Yoon Yoo-dong, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, said, "In Mirae Asset Securities' case, valuation gains related to the SpaceX-xAI merger are expected to be reflected at around 1.4 trillion won." He added, "As there are no immediate exit plans, the company is expected to recognize valuation gains and losses linked to the stock price after SpaceX goes public."

A booming stock market is also working in Mirae Asset Securities' favor. The firm ranks No. 1 in the industry in brokerage market share based on commission revenue, at 11.8%. Its earnings structure means that as stock trading value increases, related revenue rises as well. From January to March this year, through March 26, the stock market's average daily trading value reached 62.5395 trillion won, far exceeding last year's average of 25.6796 trillion won.

According to NH Investment & Securities, Mirae Asset Securities' estimated commission profit and loss from brokerage and related businesses this year is 1.714 trillion won, up 44.5% from 1.186 trillion won last year. That is the largest figure among the consensus estimates for brokerages including Korea Investment, Kiwoom and Samsung Securities.

Still, Korea Investment & Securities remains a formidable rival. Its affiliate Korea Investment Partners has invested about $35 million in major global unlisted companies including SpaceX, xAI, Anthropic and Lambda, based on estimated won conversions at the time of the Anthropic investment. It also has ample room to grow earnings by identifying high-yield investment assets through IMA issuance.

The brokerage's app monthly active users have also risen to 2.65 million, increasing the potential for brokerage revenue growth. Although its first-quarter net profit is expected to trail Mirae Asset Securities, its second-quarter forecast stands at 550.5 billion won on a holding company basis, close to Mirae Asset Securities' 553.2 billion won.

In the brokerage industry, analysts see two key factors determining who takes the No. 1 spot in net profit: competition in stock trading value and the size of Mirae Asset Securities' valuation gains from SpaceX. While it is true that Mirae Asset Securities appears better positioned thanks to its higher brokerage market share and larger SpaceX investment, some analysts say Korea Investment & Securities has the stronger foundation for recurring earnings, backed by abundant equity capital, competitiveness in investment banking and strong performance from its asset management business.

Ahn Young-jun, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, said, "Korea Financial Holdings (Korea Investment & Securities) has stronger underlying earnings power, but this year Mirae Asset Securities could significantly narrow the net profit gap thanks to its high retail market share and valuation gains from unlisted investment assets such as SpaceX." He added, "However, valuation gains are highly volatile and largely one-off in nature, so the actual ranking will depend on how much of the asset value is reflected."