Odds On: Prediction markets peg SpaceX IPO as likely by late June
"Odds On" is The Fly's weekly series diving into the most interesting bets on events trading platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood. Subscribers, add $EBET to your Fly portfolios for alerts on news about events trading.
Claim 30% Off TipRanks Premium
-
Unlock hedge fund-level data and powerful investing tools for smarter, sharper decisions
-
Stay ahead of the market with the latest news and analysis and maximize your portfolio's potential
BACKGROUND: The potential initial public offering of SpaceX has been widely discussed, but as of now there has been no official filing. However, the internal preparation for the IPO of SpaceX appears to be underway. Valuation expectations are unusually large. Estimates generally fall in the range of $1.5T-$1.75T, which would immediately place SpaceX among the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The expected capital raise could reach tens of billions of dollars. SpaceX has historically avoided public markets, but it is believed that its current growth phase requires sustained investment. Starlink has become the primary revenue driver, operating as a global broadband network with recurring subscription income. At the same time, continued development of the Starship system and other infrastructure initiatives requires significant funding that may be more efficiently raised through public markets. There are also indications that the structure of the IPO could differ from typical offerings. Reports suggest a relatively larger allocation to retail investors than is standard, along with the possibility of rapid inclusion in major equity indexes. Publicly traded space-related companies have seen increased attention, and there has been a rise in speculative positioning tied to the potential listing. Secondary markets for private shares have also become more active.
THE BET: Polymarket offers "SpaceX IPO by_?" with a total volume of$437,964. The six markets offered with an over 2% probability are April 30, May 31, June 15, June 30, September 30 and December 31.
Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 2% chance of SpaceX public offering by April 30. The "Yes" contract was last trading at 1.7c, while the "No" contract stood at 98.7c.
There is currently a 11% chance of SpaceX public offering by May 31, according to Polymarket. The "Yes" contract was last trading at 12c, while the "No" contract stood at 90c.
Market participants on Polymarket are pricing in a 28% chance of a SpaceX public offering by June 15. The "Yes" contract was last trading at 34c, while the "No" contract stood at 79c.
Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 74% chance of a SpaceX public offering by June 30. The "Yes" contract was last trading at 75c, while the "No" contract stood at 28c.
There is currently a 90% chance of SpaceX public offering by September 30, according to Polymarket. The "Yes" contract was last trading at 90c, while the "No" contract stood at 11c.
Market participants on Polymarket are pricing in a 93% chance of a SpaceX public offering by December 31. The "Yes" contract was last trading at 93c, while the "No" contract stood at 8c.
THE RULES: This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX completes an IPO by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If SpaceX is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."