SpaceX Falcon 9 Almost Only Rocket for AST Space Mobile, Amazon LEO and Space Force

Blue Origin New Glenn is likely grounded for 4 months to investigate the upper stage failure on the weekend. ULA Vulcan is grounded because of two Grumman solid rocket booster failures. The satellite launchers Amazon, Space Force and AST Space Mobile have to rely on SpaceX Falcon 9. Amazon LEO needs 10-15 Falcon 9 launches per year from SpaceX. AST Spacemobile needs 10-20 launches per year from SpaceX. US defense space force is moving 70 backlogged launches not launched. by ULA to SpaceX. ULA launched 4 times total in 2-3 years. About $3-4 billion per year in launches need to go to spaceX. SpaceX already has 150-160 launches committed. 130 to Starlink and 20-30 for NASA and others. Can SpaceX surge an added 30 launches in the final half of the year?

Amazon LEO- 24 month extension to get 1618 satellites for half of plan. What is actually launching in 2026 (confirmed as of April 21):April 27/28: Two launches this week --

*⁠ ⁠ULA Atlas V (LA-06) → 29 satellites (SLC-41, Cape Canaveral).

*⁠ ⁠Arianespace Ariane 64 (LE-02) → 32 satellites (Kourou, French Guiana). Lucky get one per month of Atlas 5 or Ariane. they need about 30 Falcon 9 launches

Rest of 2026 outlook cannot realistically see Amazon ramping to 4 launches per month. They have the remaining Atlas V rockets.

Ariane 6 (18 total contracted. pace is ~1 every 1-2 months initially).

Increasing Falcon 9 usage (24-27 per flight. Amazon is adding more missions to bridge gaps).

Amazon has launched about 240 of the 3200 planned Amazon LEO satellites, compete against the 10,300 satellites Starlink has in orbit and adding 3000 satellites this year. They are buying Globalstar for 11.7 billiion for DTC (direct to cellphone) spectrum. Starlink already has 650 DTC satellites and those are already in orbit and servicing millions of T-mobile and other global customers. ULA Vulcan rockets using Blue Origin BE4 engines cannot fly for now. Failed solid rocket boosters. Blue Origin second stage failed to AST Spacemobile satellite into right orbit. FAA mishap probe grounds new glenn. Analysts and space community consensus point to a similar or longer delay (2-4+ months) because this is an upper-stage engine issue. Next launch is NASA payload. Could be no commercial launch til late in 2026 or early 2027.

Amazon new direct to satellite service is mostly after they get 3000 internet service satellites up. halfway maybe in 2028. Don't see many until 2030 without massive SpaceX launch reliance

SpaceX will have the capacity, but bezos must swallow pride and order primarily spacex. And get satellite production sped up.