SPCX shares declined to $136.78 on Monday, barely holding above the $135 IPO level after reaching $225.64 in mid-June
China successfully recovered a Long March rocket booster on July 10, sparking competitive fears in reusable space launch tech
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest acquired $21.3 million of SPCX shares Monday through three ETFs, after buying $52M the prior week
An upcoming lockup expiration -- unlocking 20% of shares post-August earnings -- is creating downward pressure
The company carries a valuation approaching 50x projected 2026 revenue with no expected profitability this year

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) has witnessed a dramatic 40% decline from its June 16 peak of $225.64, settling at $139.14 on Monday -- a downturn that's captured significant market attention despite overwhelmingly positive analyst sentiment.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

The aerospace company debuted at $135 per share on June 11, jumped to $150 within 24 hours, and climbed as high as $225.64 before entering a steep correction. Monday's intraday low of $136.78 brought the stock perilously close to breaching its initial offering price.

Tuesday's premarket session showed SPCX down an additional 0.4% to $138.61.

Yet analyst conviction remains strong: 80% maintain Buy ratings on the stock -- significantly above the typical S&P 500 consensus of 55%-60%. The mean price target hovers around $240, suggesting a potential market capitalization near $3.2 trillion.

Evercore ISI initiated coverage Tuesday with a Buy recommendation and $230 target. The market response was muted.

Chinese Reusable Rocket Breakthrough

On July 10, China demonstrated successful recovery of a Long March booster using a ship-based cable system -- a notable achievement in reusable launch vehicle technology that caught investors' attention. SpaceX has maintained unquestioned leadership in this critical competitive advantage, forming a cornerstone of the investment thesis.

This Chinese demonstration suggests the technological moat may be narrowing, despite SpaceX maintaining superior scale and operational capabilities.

Share Lockup and Premium Valuation

A technical headwind is compounding selling pressure. Following the company's inaugural quarterly earnings release -- anticipated mid-August -- approximately 20% of total outstanding shares will exit lockup restrictions. This substantial supply increase is prompting some shareholders to exit positions preemptively.

Valuation concerns persist as well. With a current market capitalization around $1.8 trillion yet no anticipated profitability through 2026, SpaceX commands roughly 50 times forecasted 2026 sales -- an elevated multiple even accounting for robust growth projections.

ARK Invest Accumulates Shares

Contrarian activity emerged Monday as ARK Invest acquired 130,241 SPCX shares -- approximately $21.3 million -- distributed among ARKK, ARKQ, and ARKW funds. This follows the previous week's $52 million accumulation.

The aggressive buying hasn't reversed the downtrend. Technical analysis shows deteriorating momentum with the MACD indicator turning bearish. Market observers identify $145 as a new resistance zone after previously serving as support. A definitive close beneath $135 would represent a significant technical breakdown below the IPO threshold -- a psychologically important marker for market participants.

As of Tuesday morning, SpaceX was changing hands at $138.61.

SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Plummets 40% as Cathie Wood Continues Buying Amid Market Concerns