SpaceX vs. the Last 5 Biggest IPOs in History. How Did Those Stocks Perform a Year Later?

Two notable trends continue to bolster the capital markets landscape.

Of course, investor appetite for businesses in artificial intelligence (AI) remains robust. The view is that this is a groundbreaking technology that will have a meaningful impact on the economy.

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Additionally, the market is captivated by anything Elon Musk is working on. His grand visions drive excitement.

These factors created the perfect backdrop for the most anticipated initial public offering (IPO) ever. On June 12, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public. It raised $86 billion, after underwriters exercised their greenshoe option. The company currently sports a massive $2 trillion market capitalization. And the stock has traded 13% up from its opening price (as of July 9).

The hype is hard to overstate. But how will SpaceX's shares perform over the 12-month period following its IPO? Investors can try to glean insights by looking at the five largest previous deals.

A wide range of industries

The five largest IPOs prior to SpaceX are ranked by the amount of capital raised. The list includes Saudi Arabian Oil ($26 billion raised in 2019), Alibaba Group ($22 billion in 2014), SoftBank Corp. (not the investment holding company) ($21 billion in 2018), NTT DoCoMo ($18 billion in 1998), and Visa ($18 billion in 2008). Investors will notice that these deals come from different industries. Whether it's energy, technology, communication services, or financial services, no single sector dominates.

Their subsequent 12-month performances are a mixed bag. Saudi Aramco shares were down by a single-digit percentage. Alibaba's stock price tanked 30%. SoftBank's shares were up about 10%. NTT Mobile soared 68%. And Visa's stock was essentially flat one year later.

These figures are all over the place. It's telling that these companies were able to raise such massive amounts of capital. However, the timing of their IPOs, as well as their competitive positions, management teams, and financial performance, all weighed on their respective stocks' performances.

Based on these volatile numbers, investors can't come to a definitive conclusion about where SpaceX shares will be trading 12 months after its IPO. It's really a toss-up at this point.