Tesla-SpaceX Tie-Up Talk Grows as Robotaxi Doubts Cloud Tesla Earnings

Tesla's first-quarter results, due on Wednesday, have brought fresh attention to market talk about a possible tie-up with SpaceX. Analysts at Jefferies said weak progress in robotaxis and rising funding pressure could keep this speculation alive. The discussion has gained traction as Tesla faces closer scrutiny over execution and spending.

is set to draw attention to revenue, margins, and cash flow. Jefferies forecast revenue of $21.2 billion, up 10% from a year earlier but lower than the previous quarter. The bank also expects operating margin to fall below 3% and cash burn to reach about $1.9 billion.

Bloomberg consensus, cited in a separate earnings preview, points to revenue of $22.08 billion, down 9% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share are expected at $0.35, while adjusted EBITDA is seen at $3.217 billion. The difference between forecasts shows how much uncertainty still surrounds Tesla's near-term business.

remain central to the earnings story. Jefferies said Tesla's target to launch robotaxi service across 25% to 50% of potential US markets by year-end may be difficult to reach. The bank pointed to permit issues and continued questions around Tesla's lidar-free Full Self-Driving system.

Tesla recently expanded its robotaxi service to parts of Dallas and Houston. Before that, the company had service in Austin and ride-hailing operations in the San Francisco Bay Area. Tesla also said the Dallas and Houston rollout was "unsupervised," meaning no safety driver was present, though it did not give details on fleet size.