Traders cool on Tesla-SpaceX merger as Polymarket odds slide

Traders on Polymarket have sharply scaled back bets that a Tesla-SpaceX merger will be announced this year, even as Wall Street analysts insist a tie-up is only a matter of time.

The prediction market now puts just an 11% chance on an official announcement by 30 September, down 28 percentage points, while the odds of a deal being unveiled by 31 December have fallen 19 points to 24%.

More than $836,000 has been wagered across the market, which resolves yes if either company announces it is being acquired by or merged with the other, regardless of whether the deal completes.

The retreat contrasts with bullish calls from analysts, with Wedbush's Dan Ives putting the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up at about 80% and arguing the connective tissue between the companies is already forming.

Speculation intensified after SpaceX's $85.7 billion initial public offering, which created a company now valued at around $2.44 trillion with $100.8 billion in cash.

SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell declined to dismiss the idea when asked directly in June, suggesting a tie-up might make Elon Musk's life a little easier.

Musk has exercised 304 million Tesla options, lifting his voting stake to 19.9% as he targets the 25% control he says is needed to advance the carmaker's AI ambitions.

The two companies already share extensive commercial ties, including joint ownership of the Terafab chip facility, and SpaceX bought $697 million of Tesla's Megapack battery systems in 2024 and 2025.

Musk has form for consolidation, having folded social media platform X into xAI in 2025 before SpaceX acquired xAI in an all-stock deal this year.

Musk himself has acknowledged the complexity, telling analysts that any deal would have to make sure Tesla shareholders are served and SpaceX shareholders are served.