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What History Tells Us About SpaceX Joining The Nasdaq-100 (NDX) | Seeking Alpha

The average change for a stock added to the NDX is a loss of 3.41% over the first five days. Nasdaq has announced that SpaceX (SPCX) will be added to the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) starting Tuesday, July 7, 2026. This addition, like many over the past few years, has been telegraphed by Nasdaq through a Russell Rhoads is a highly regarded strategist, educator and consultant - among other things he is perhaps best known as the author of "Trading VIX Derivatives," the textbook in the space as well as "The VIX Trader's Handbook." Russell spent a decade at Cboe Global Markets, including a stint as director of education at The Cboe Options Institute. He has a 25-year career, which includes buyside firms such as Balyasny Asset Management, Caldwell & Orkin, and Millennium Management. He is an associate clinical professor of finance at Indiana University's Kelley School of Business. Finally, Russell earned a PhD in 2021 from Oklahoma State University where his dissertation, "The Impact of Firm Reputation and Visibility on Portfolio Manager Decision Making," focused on heuristics and decisions made by professional portfolio managers. Most NDX additions since 2022 have seen average declines of 1.13% on day one and 3.41% over five days, with a majority posting negative returns. History suggests SPCX may experience short-term weakness after joining the NDX, as forced index fund buying often pulls forward demand, leading to a post-inclusion fade. While most stocks weaken, high-profile names like TER and APP have outperformed; SPCX's intense investor interest could result in atypical price action, but the historical trend favors caution.