News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
Polymarket Seeks U.S. License to Offer Margin Trading Legally - FinanceFeeds
Polymarket is seeking regulatory approval to offer margin trading in the United States, a move that would allow users to take larger event-contract positions with less capital upfront and mark another step in the platform's push back into the regulated U.S. market. Bloomberg reported that Polymarket is pursuing a license that would permit margin trading legally in the U.S., potentially giving the prediction-market platform a more sophisticated product set for active traders. Margin trading would allow users to post collateral rather than fully fund every position, increasing capital efficiency but also raising risks around leverage, liquidations and customer protection. The effort comes as Polymarket is trying to rebuild its U.S. business after years of regulatory restrictions. The company paid a $1.4 million penalty to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022 and agreed to wind down non-compliant markets after regulators said it had operated an unregistered event-based binary-options platform. Polymarket later blocked U.S. users from its offshore crypto-based platform. Polymarket's U.S. strategy changed after it acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million in 2025. That deal gave the company a regulated route back into the American market and positioned it to compete more directly with Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction-market exchange that has expanded aggressively into sports, politics and economic-event contracts. Margin Could Transform Event Trading Margin trading would be a significant upgrade for prediction markets because most event contracts are currently funded on a fully collateralized basis. A trader who buys a contract typically posts the full cost of the position, limiting leverage and reducing the risk that the venue is left with unpaid losses when a market resolves. Allowing margin would make the product more attractive to professional traders, market makers and high-volume users. It could increase liquidity, tighten spreads and support more complex strategies across related event contracts. A trader, for example, could hedge positions across elections, macroeconomic releases, sports outcomes or crypto-price thresholds without tying up as much capital. The trade-off is risk. Prediction markets have unusual payoff structures because contracts can settle suddenly at zero or one dollar based on real-world outcomes. That creates sharp jump risk, especially near resolution. Margin systems must therefore account for binary outcomes, event timing, market manipulation risks and the possibility that many correlated contracts resolve at the same time. Those risks are especially important in the U.S. regulatory context. If Polymarket wins approval, regulators will likely scrutinize margin methodology, customer suitability, disclosures, clearing arrangements, collateral treatment and default management. The company would need to show that leveraged event trading can operate safely inside a CFTC-supervised framework. U.S. Comeback Faces Legal Friction Polymarket's margin ambitions arrive during a broader legal fight over prediction markets. Supporters argue that event contracts are federally regulated derivatives that can improve forecasting and risk transfer. State gambling regulators argue that sports and other event contracts can function like betting and should remain subject to local gaming laws. That conflict has intensified as Kalshi, Polymarket and other platforms have expanded sports-related markets. Reuters reported this week that a federal judge rejected Kalshi's attempt to block New York from enforcing gambling laws against the company's sports-event contracts, underscoring the legal uncertainty facing the sector. Polymarket also faces reputational questions tied to its offshore history, crypto-native trading model and controversial markets. Recent reporting has highlighted concerns about U.S. users accessing offshore venues, suspicious trading around sensitive events and the difficulty of policing insider information in markets linked to politics, business and geopolitical outcomes. Still, the commercial opportunity is substantial. Prediction markets have become one of crypto's fastest-growing consumer categories, and U.S. regulatory approval for margin trading could help Polymarket attract deeper liquidity and more advanced traders. It would also give the company a stronger product response to Kalshi's regulated U.S. expansion. For the broader market, Polymarket's application is a test of how far U.S. regulators are willing to let prediction markets evolve. A basic event-contract exchange is one thing. A leveraged prediction-market venue is more complex and more systemically sensitive. If approved, margin trading could accelerate the institutionalization of event markets. If rejected or delayed, Polymarket's U.S. comeback may remain constrained to simpler, fully funded contracts. Either way, the request shows that prediction markets are moving rapidly from retail speculation toward a more sophisticated financial-market structure.
Goldman Sachs Limits, but Doesn't Stop, Employees Using Kalshi and Polymarket | Polymarket News Businesses
Kalshi and Polymarket face growing scrutiny over insider-driven wagers. Goldman Sachs has told employees to confine their prediction market activity to sports and entertainment. The bank hopes to limit compliance risks tied to betting on elections, interest rates, and other market-moving events. The bank issued the policy through an internal memo. It warned that repeated violations could lead to termination, a person familiar with the matter told the Financial Times. Kalshi and Polymarket Face Insider Trading Scrutiny Both platforms have drawn scrutiny over users profiting from advance knowledge of major events. Lookonchain flagged three wallets that netted more than $630,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro's removal hours before his capture. Nobel Peace Prize organizers separately investigated a possible leak after a run of successful wagers on the eventual winner. Kalshi and Polymarket have since rolled out new rules targeting insider trading and market manipulation. The scrutiny comes as Kalshi pursues a $40 billion valuation in a new funding round, underscoring how fast institutional capital is flowing into the sector. Why Wall Street Banks Are Wary of Prediction Bets Banks like Goldman sit close to material non-public information that can move markets. That proximity forces strict limits on what trades employees can make, and prediction platforms complicate those controls. Kalshi and Polymarket let users wager on outcomes ranging from elections to where the S&P 500 will land at a given moment, blurring the line between entertainment and market-sensitive speculation. Both platforms still earn most of their revenue from sports betting. Kalshi, meanwhile, is pushing into financial services with a new block-trading operation, a sign prediction markets want a permanent seat at Wall Street's table.
Goldman Sachs Limits, but Doesn't Stop, Employees Using Kalshi and Polymarket
Kalshi and Polymarket face growing scrutiny over insider-driven wagers. Goldman Sachs has told employees to confine their prediction market activity to sports and entertainment. The bank hopes to limit compliance risks tied to betting on elections, interest rates, and other market-moving events. The bank issued the policy through an internal memo. It warned that repeated violations could lead to termination, a person familiar with the matter told the Financial Times. Kalshi and Polymarket Face Insider Trading Scrutiny Both platforms have drawn scrutiny over users profiting from advance knowledge of major events. Lookonchain flagged three wallets that netted more than $630,000 betting on Nicolás Maduro's removal hours before his capture. Nobel Peace Prize organizers separately investigated a possible leak after a run of successful wagers on the eventual winner. Kalshi and Polymarket have since rolled out new rules targeting insider trading and market manipulation. The scrutiny comes as Kalshi pursues a $40 billion valuation in a new funding round, underscoring how fast institutional capital is flowing into the sector. Why Wall Street Banks Are Wary of Prediction Bets Banks like Goldman sit close to material non-public information that can move markets. That proximity forces strict limits on what trades employees can make, and prediction platforms complicate those controls. Kalshi and Polymarket let users wager on outcomes ranging from elections to where the S&P 500 will land at a given moment, blurring the line between entertainment and market-sensitive speculation. Both platforms still earn most of their revenue from sports betting. Kalshi, meanwhile, is pushing into financial services with a new block-trading operation, a sign prediction markets want a permanent seat at Wall Street's table.
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Polymarket predicts 57% chance of no rate change in September
Prediction market traders are betting the Fed holds steady despite 4.2% inflation, but a 37% chance of a hike keeps things interesting The crowd has spoken, and the crowd thinks the Federal Reserve is going to sit on its hands. Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market, currently prices a 56% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at the September FOMC meeting. Shares representing a "no change" outcome are trading at 57 cents each, with the market generating over $2 million in trading volume since it launched on May 13. That's not trivial engagement for a single policy question months in advance. The rate hike that might not happen While the majority bet is on the Fed doing nothing, a 25 basis point increase sits at 37% probability -- roughly one in three traders thinks the Fed will actually raise rates further. The May Consumer Price Index came in at 4.2% year-over-year, well above the Fed's 2% target. The labor market, meanwhile, continues to show resilience. Broader 2026 Fed policy markets on Polymarket tell a similar story. The probability of any rate hike occurring this year sits in the 51-53% range, making it essentially a coin flip on whether the Fed moves at all. Polymarket's track record Polymarket priced a 25 basis point cut in September 2025 at 91% confidence, and the Fed followed through. The market resolves based on official FOMC statements and Federal Reserve data releases, rounding to the nearest 25 basis points. The platform operates on the Polygon blockchain and accepts USDC or pUSD as collateral. Trading volume of over $2 million for a single FOMC meeting outcome signals that this isn't just retail speculation, with the platform serving as a complement to the CME FedWatch tool that has long dominated rate probability forecasting. What this means for crypto investors Rate decisions are one of the single biggest drivers of risk asset prices, and crypto remains firmly in the risk asset category. A rate hold in September would likely be interpreted as neutral-to-positive for crypto, as no tightening means no additional pressure on liquidity. The 37% chance of a rate hike is the scenario crypto investors should game plan for. Bitcoin and Ethereum have historically shown sensitivity to unexpected hawkish pivots. If subsequent CPI prints come in hotter than 4.2%, that 37% hike probability could climb, and crypto markets would likely start pricing in the pain before the Fed even acts.
Google Chrome to Ban Prediction Market Extensions, Impacting Polymarket and Kalshi - TokenPost
Google is set to block Chrome extensions linked to prediction markets, creating a new distribution challenge for platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi even as the industry records unprecedented trading activity. The company announced the policy update on July 1 through the Chrome for Developers blog, expanding its Regulated Goods and Services policy to explicitly prohibit extensions that facilitate predictive markets. Developers who fail to comply with the new requirements risk having their Chrome extensions removed once the policy takes effect. Beyond prediction markets, Google also introduced stricter privacy standards for all Chrome extensions. Developers may now collect only the data necessary for a clearly disclosed, single-purpose function. They must also provide transparent explanations of their data collection practices and notify users of any future changes. In addition, Google is banning extensions designed to bypass safety protections in AI-powered services, describing the broader policy overhaul as part of its effort to strengthen user trust and privacy. Google stated that users should have complete visibility into how their data is handled while maintaining confidence that the Chrome extension ecosystem operates responsibly. The decision is notable because Google Finance has displayed prediction market data from Polymarket and Kalshi since November 2025. While the company continues to feature market odds on its financial platform, it is now restricting browser extensions that enable direct participation in those markets. The move comes as prediction markets continue to expand rapidly. According to Dune Analytics, combined monthly notional trading volume reached approximately $291.38 billion as of June 22, highlighting growing investor interest despite mounting regulatory pressure. Several jurisdictions have already imposed restrictions. Argentina ordered a nationwide block of Polymarket in March, joining more than 30 countries that have limited access to the platform. The ruling also led Google and Apple to remove Polymarket's mobile apps for users in Argentina. In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) continues to defend prediction markets in court against legal challenges from several states, including Kentucky, New York, and Wisconsin. Despite increasing scrutiny, investor interest remains strong. Kalshi is reportedly pursuing a $40 billion valuation following its $1 billion Series F funding round. Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal analysis found that more than 70% of Polymarket accounts lost money, while just 0.1% of users captured roughly 67% of total profits. Although Chrome extensions may disappear, prediction markets remain accessible through their websites and mobile applications.
Netanyahu warns on Turkey F-35s as Polymarket puts Eizenkot at 40%
predict.info -- Premium Domain For Sale Domain only: USD 200,000. Prediction platform technology priced separately. predict.info Netanyahu Warns Against U.S. F-35 Sale to Turkey as Polymarket Lifts Gadi Eizenkot's Next Israel PM Odds Benjamin Netanyahu sharpened his public criticism of a potential U.S. sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey in comments to CNN, framing Ankara as an unreliable partner and warning of a regional power shift. Polymarket traders nudged higher the odds in the contract "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?", with Gadi Eizenkot leading at 39.95%. Key Takeaways * Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the top pick at 39.95% to be Israel's next prime minister after the next election. * Traders slightly lifted Eizenkot's implied odds by 0.85 percentage points as Netanyahu stayed in the headlines on foreign policy and security issues. * The market is set to resolve by 2026-12-31, and the contract's implied odds are up 2.05 percentage points over the past 24 hours. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CNN he had raised concerns with U.S. President Donald Trump about the possibility of Washington selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, saying such a move could disrupt the balance of power in the Middle East. He argued that Turkey should not be viewed as a "friendly state" to the United States, citing Ankara's ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's support for Hamas, and Turkey's record on imprisoning political opponents and journalists. Netanyahu said Erdogan has threatened NATO allies and has repeatedly threatened Israel, and he described Turkey as having aggressive ambitions, including claims about restoring the Ottoman Empire. He also said the U.S. and Israel remain close allies even when they disagree, and said both leaders aligned on giving Iran a chance to address its nuclear program through negotiations while insisting Israel would not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. In the same interview, Netanyahu condemned Jewish settler violence in the West Bank as a violation of basic norms and said incidents would be investigated, rejecting vigilantism regardless of who carries it out. Polymarket Data: $26.25M Volume as Eizenkot Leads at 39.95% vs Netanyahu at 36.5% (Resolution 2026-12-31) On Polymarket, the multi-outcome market has about $26.25 million in volume, with Gadi Eizenkot leading at 39.95% Yes (60.05% No) versus Benjamin Netanyahu at 36.5% Yes (63.5% No). The next tier is priced much lower, with Naftali Bennett at 12.5% Yes (87.5% No) and Avigdor Lieberman at 3.35% Yes (96.65% No), signaling a two-way race in current positioning. The latest move shows Eizenkot up to 39.95% from 39.1%, while the broader tape indicates a 24-hour change of +2.05 percentage points for the tracked odds series. With resolution set for 2026-12-31, the pricing suggests traders are concentrated in the top two outcomes while assigning long-shot probabilities to the rest of the field. Watch whether Polymarket's spread between Gadi Eizenkot (39.95%) and Benjamin Netanyahu (36.5%) widens or tightens, and whether volume above $26.25 million accelerates into a clearer two-candidate market. Beyond Israel Politics: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching Beyond Israel's leadership odds, Polymarket traders are also keeping a close eye on faster-moving regional risk gauges, including 92.25% "No" on "Israel closes its airspace by July 15?" with $1,062,143 in volume. The contract sits alongside a broader slate of high-turnover geopolitical and macro markets that participants use to hedge headline-driven volatility across the region and beyond. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$26,251,121 Top strike rungs +14 more strikes not shown
Trump Kharg Island remarks hit Hormuz outlook as Polymarket Yes sinks to 4.5%
Trump Cites Kharg Island Attack, Blockade Threat -- Polymarket Shifts to "No" on Strait of Hormuz Normalization by July 3 Comments attributed to Donald Trump about a U.S. attack on Iran's Kharg Island and a possible reinstatement of a blockade of Iranian ports are being reflected in Polymarket pricing on whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31. The contract's odds have shifted sharply toward a "No" outcome as traders weigh renewed disruption risk. Key Takeaways * Polymarket prices a 95.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic does not return to normal by July 31, versus 4.5% for "Yes." * The market repriced after a report citing Trump saying the U.S. attacked Kharg Island and may reinstate a blockade of Iranian ports. * The contract is set to resolve on July 31, 2026, and "Yes" odds are down 37.5 percentage points to 4.5% from 42.0%. A report cited Donald Trump saying the United States attacked Iran's Kharg Island the prior night. The report also said Trump raised the prospect that Washington could reinstate a blockade of Iranian ports. The comments pointed to a possible escalation affecting maritime activity tied to Iranian exports. The report framed the statements as a signal of potential new restrictions on shipping access. The developments come as traders monitor risks to regional sea lanes connected to the Strait of Hormuz. Polymarket Odds and Volume: "No" at 95.5%, "Yes" at 4.5% After 37.5-Point Swing on $13.33M Traded On Polymarket, the "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" contract is trading at 4.5% for Yes and 95.5% for No, making No the clear leading outcome. The market has seen about $13.33 million in volume, with pricing implying traders see normalization by the July 31, 2026 resolution date as a low-probability scenario. The current odds reflect a steep drop in Yes pricing from a previous 42.0%, a 37.5 percentage-point swing toward No. Whether the Yes price can recover from 4.5% will likely hinge on subsequent trade flow signals ahead of the July 31, 2026 resolution date and any further repricing in the implied probabilities. Beyond the Strait of Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching Beyond the immediate shipping-risk trade, Polymarket activity is also clustering around a broader set of Iran-linked geopolitical bets. In "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?", "No" leads at 84.5%, while "Iran leader end of 2026?" shows Mojtaba Khamenei at 83.05%. Traders are also tracking diplomacy timelines, with 36.5% on a "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by...?" resolving on December 31, and 32.0% pointing to August 15 as the leading outcome in "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?". Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? * Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Leading implied prob.: 4.5% * Volume: ~$13,325,314 * Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 4.5% / No 95.5%; No: Yes 4.5% / No 95.5%
Tankers turn back after attacks, Polymarket sees 57.5% Hormuz normal by Dec 31
Strait of Hormuz tanker turnbacks after vessel attacks send Polymarket "traffic returns to normal" odds sliding A report that four oil and gas tankers turned back from the Strait of Hormuz after vessel attacks has coincided with a sharp repricing in Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" contract. The market's implied probability for a return to normal traffic has fallen to 57.5% from 85.5%. Key Takeaways * Polymarket prices a 57.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec. 31, 2026. * Traders marked the contract lower after reports that four oil and gas tankers turned back following vessel attacks. * The market resolves on Dec. 31, 2026; "Yes" is 57.5% and "No" is 42.5% at the latest update. Four oil and gas tankers turned back from the Strait of Hormuz after vessel attacks, according to a report published on July 8, 2026. The incident affected shipping activity linked to energy cargoes moving through the waterway. The report described the vessels as reversing course in response to the attacks. The development highlights the operational risk for commercial traffic in the strait. It also underscores how security incidents can disrupt routing decisions for tankers transiting the area. Polymarket pricing update: Yes drops to 57.5% from 85.5% as matched volume hits $4.55M On Polymarket, the "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" market shows Yes at 57.5% versus No at 42.5%, a 28-point drop from the prior 85.5% reading for Yes. Total matched volume stands at $4,547,172, indicating sustained liquidity even as sentiment shifted. With Yes still leading but only by 15 points, pricing implies traders see a meaningful risk that normal traffic conditions are not restored by the Dec. 31, 2026 resolution date. Traders will watch for further shifts in the Yes/No spread and whether volume accelerates as the market approaches the Dec. 31, 2026 resolution date. Beyond the Strait of Hormuz: other high-volume geopolitical and macro contracts Polymarket traders are watching Beyond the longer-dated Strait question, Polymarket activity is also clustering around adjacent Iran-linked timelines and nearer-term shipping benchmarks. In "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by...?", the leading outcome "December 31" implies 36.0% with $8,484,573 matched, while "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" has "August 15" at 31.0% on $3,223,750. On the shorter horizon, traders are leaning heavily toward disruption persisting, with "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" pricing "No" at 95.5% on $13,251,093 and "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?" at 99.25% for "No" on $8,135,837. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? * Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Leading implied prob.: 57.5% * Volume: ~$4,547,172 * Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 57.5% / No 42.5%; No: Yes 57.5% / No 42.5%
Polymarket Adds Spark for Instant Bitcoin Lightning Deposits | BanklessTimes
Joseph is a content writer and editor who has actively participated in crypto for over 6 years. He enjoys educating others about Web3 and covering its updates, regulatory developments, and exciting stories. Polymarket is making it much faster to move Bitcoin into prediction markets by turning on Lightning Network deposits powered by Spark. The platform now lets users fund their accounts with self-custodial BTC almost instantly, instead of waiting for on-chain confirmations. Users can now select a "Bitcoin via Lightning" option within the deposit flow, according to announcements from Spark and Polymarket. If they do, Spark creates a Lightning invoice, the user pays it from any compatible wallet, and the system credits the funds in under a second. Until this, BTC deposits had to go via regular network confirmations, which may take 10 to 60 minutes depending on fees and congestion. Spark calls its model "zero-conf" because it validates the Bitcoin transaction as soon as it is broadcast, rather than waiting for a block. Before approving a deposit, the protocol checks for double-spend risks, fee levels, and replace-by-fee signals. Then it takes the confirmation risk itself, so Polymarket may report a funded balance nearly immediately. Self-Custodial Design and Supported Wallets At the same time, Polymarket keeps the setup self-custodial, which is important to many crypto-native traders. Each user's wallet still links to their keys on the platform's side, while Spark only handles the Lightning payment route in the background. That design means users do not have to park coins on a centralized exchange just to bet on events. Spark also said the feature is compatible with a long list of popular apps that already enable Lightning withdrawals. These include, but are not limited to, Cash App, Coinbase, Kraken, Binance, OKX, Wallet of Satoshi, Tether Wallet, and Cake Wallet. So now many Bitcoin users can jump directly from their normal wallet into Polymarket with just a tiny Lightning payment. Since Polymarket already converts deposits into its pUSD collateral on Polygon, the new BTC path is primarily about speed and convenience rather than trading mechanics. Now, Bitcoin traders who like to hold Bitcoin can use it as their funding asset without worrying about large delays each time they move money. In fact, this can make it easier to react to fast-moving news as users can deposit and place trades within seconds. As Lightning continues to grow, more platforms are experimenting with instant BTC flows into DeFi and betting apps. Polymarket's move suggests that prediction markets want to tap into that liquidity while keeping users in control of their coins.
Polymarket races to regain trust with US market re-entry after $112M acquisition
The prediction market giant is betting that rock-bottom fees and a CFTC-approved derivatives exchange can make Americans forget it once kicked them off the platform Polymarket, the crypto-native prediction market that became a cultural phenomenon during the 2024 US election cycle, is making its way back to American users. The platform acquired regulated derivatives exchange QCX for $112 million, giving it the legal scaffolding to offer event contracts stateside. Polymarket didn't leave the US market on its own terms. Back in 2022, the platform was forced to block American users after running into regulatory headwinds. Now it's attempting a comeback, armed with federal approval and a fee structure aggressive enough to make both offshore venues and traditional sportsbooks uncomfortable. The regulatory path back The company secured an amended CFTC order in November that allows it to beta test its US exchange with live trades. The QCX acquisition is the centerpiece of this strategy. By purchasing a regulated derivatives venue for $112 million, Polymarket essentially bought itself a compliance moat rather than trying to convince regulators that prediction markets deserve a novel framework. The US-specific app will initially focus on sports contracts. Politics and crypto markets are planned for later. A fee structure designed to hurt competitors Polymarket's US product features 10 basis point taker fees with zero maker fees. Standard sportsbook vigorish typically runs anywhere from 4% to 10% on most bets. A trader placing a $1,000 position on Polymarket pays $1 in fees. The same economic exposure through a sportsbook would cost somewhere between $40 and $100 in embedded margin. The zero maker fee component means liquidity providers can operate for free, bootstrapping deep order books. Why the trust problem is real American users who were active on the platform before 2022 remember being shown the door. Some found workarounds, using VPNs and non-US accounts, which created its own set of problems when questions about market integrity surfaced during the 2024 election. The fact that US participation was technically prohibited while the platform was being used to forecast US elections created an awkward dynamic that regulators noticed. Now Polymarket has to convince American retail users the platform won't pull the rug again if regulatory winds shift, and institutional participants need to see a compliance infrastructure robust enough to satisfy their own legal teams. A $112 million price tag for a regulated venue signals commitment that's hard to fake. What this means for the broader prediction market landscape Kalshi, the other major US prediction market, has been operating with CFTC approval since 2020 and has fought its own regulatory battles to expand into election contracts. Polymarket's entry as a direct competitor with dramatically lower fees could force Kalshi to reconsider its own pricing. Analysts watching this space see Polymarket's return as a potential inflection point for on-chain prediction markets more broadly. If a CFTC-approved platform with institutional-grade compliance can operate at 10 basis point fees, it validates the entire category as a legitimate financial product rather than an unregulated gray area.
U.S. charges in Nijjar killing case lift Polymarket to 72.5% on Hormuz fees
U.S. Charges in Nijjar Assassination Probe Push Polymarket "Iran Charges Hormuz Fees by Dec. 31" Odds to 72.5% U.S. authorities announced a sweeping set of criminal charges tied to the 2023 assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada, a killing that had strained Canada-India relations. On Polymarket, traders pushed up the implied odds in the ladder market "Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?" with the top rung "December 31" priced at 72.5%. Key Takeaways * Polymarket's leading rung is "Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?" at 72.5% Yes (27.5% No). * Pricing firmed as the market moved higher, with the leading implied odds up to 72.5% from 68.0% on the latest update. * The contract resolves by 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC, while the ladder spans deadline rungs from July 15 through December 31. Law enforcement officials from federal, local and international agencies announced charges against the leader of an Indian criminal group in connection with the assassination in Canada of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a killing that previously strained diplomatic ties between Canada and India. U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli said the action was part of a broader operation that charged 37 alleged members of India-based transnational organized crime groups accused of crimes including kidnapping, racketeering, extortion, firearms dealing, drug trafficking and murder. Authorities said the investigation involved agencies across the United States, Canada and Europe, and that officials were still searching for fugitives in multiple regions. The charges name Lawrence Bishnoi, 33, and Satinderjeet Singh as accused organizers of Nijjar's 2023 killing outside a temple where he served as president. Bishnoi is in custody, while Singh has not been apprehended, authorities said. Polymarket Ladder Breakdown: $607,465 Volume as Dec. 31 Rung Leads at 72.5% (Oct. 31 68%, Aug. 31 51.5%) Polymarket shows $607,465 in matched volume on the ladder market, with the longest-dated rung "December 31" at 72.5% Yes versus 27.5% No. Traders assign 68.0% Yes / 32.0% No to "October 31," while "August 31" is near a coin flip at 51.5% Yes / 48.5% No. The market prices much lower odds for earlier deadlines, with "July 31" at 12.0% Yes / 88.0% No and "July 15" at 5.25% Yes / 94.75% No, indicating positioning is concentrated on later-timeline outcomes rather than near-term action. Watch whether trading continues to migrate from the August 31 rung toward later dates, and whether volume expands beyond $607,465 as the 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC resolution approaches. Beyond the Nijjar Case: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching Beyond the headline contract, traders are also clustering into adjacent Iran- and Hormuz-linked markets that have drawn some of the platform's heaviest flow. In "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" the leading view is 86.5% No on $39,661,189 in volume, while "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by...?" has December 31 leading at 42.0% on $7,786,626. Near-term shipping disruption bets remain lopsided, with "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" priced at 95.5% No on $13,022,471, and diplomacy timing is being tested in "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" where August 15 leads at 25.0% on $1,821,438. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Aug 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$607,465 Top strike rungs +1 more strikes not shown
Two traders sue Polymarket over disputed resolution of Strategy bitcoin sale market
We'd love your feedback. Take a 30-second survey to help improve The Block. Two plaintiffs have filed a complaint against Polymarket alleging breach of contract and deceptive practices in the resolution of a prediction market tied to whether Strategy would sell bitcoin by May. The lawsuit, filed by William Wood and Thomas Bush in the New York Supreme Court on July 3, names Polymarket, CEO Shayne Coplan, CMO Matthew Modabber, and other related entities and individuals as the defendants. According to the filing, the plaintiffs held "Yes" shares in a binary market asking whether Strategy would sell any of its bitcoin holdings by May 31. Strategy disclosed in a Form 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it had sold 32 BTC between May 26 and 31. Per the complaint, Polymarket ultimately resolved the market as "No" after adding clarifying language that plaintiffs allege effectively required public confirmation by the May 31 deadline rather than merely a sale by that date. On June 3, the prediction market's final review concluded in a "No" after a UMA vote, which is used to resolve disputed markets on Polymarket. Breach of contract Plaintiffs claim Polymarket altered the market's terms post-resolution, violating the platform's core promise of rules-based, objective outcomes. They also argue that Strategy's 8-K filing constituted clear proof under the market's stated rules, which designated information from Strategy as the primary resolution source. "If defendants can impose a confirmation-by-deadline requirement after the fact in a market this objective, then the advertised promise of pre-defined, rules-based resolution is materially misleading," the filing said. "A prediction market that will not honor a proven, unambiguous event does not seek truth; it controls payout." Plaintiffs assert claims including breach of contract, breach of the implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing, money had and received, unjust enrichment, and violations of New York General Business Law regarding deceptive acts and false advertising. They seek damages to be determined at trial, including the $1.00-per-share redemption value of their winning "Yes" shares, as well as legal fees and costs. No response from Polymarket has been detailed in the initial court filing. The Block has reached out to Polymarket for comment. Meanwhile, the prediction market platform hit its all-time high record for monthly trading volume in June, with its main platform attracting $10.7 billion, while its U.S. platform reported $3.25 billion, according to The Block's data dashboard.
Iran funeral preparations hit Hormuz normalization bet to 59.5% on Polymarket
Tehran Funeral for Iran's Slain Supreme Leader: Strait of Hormuz "Normal Traffic" Odds Slide to 59.5% on Polymarket Tehran is preparing for a major funeral procession after Iran's supreme leader was killed, an escalation that has kept regional security risks in focus. On Polymarket, the contract "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" implies a 59.5% chance of normal traffic by the deadline, down sharply from 85.5%. Key Takeaways * Polymarket prices a 59.5% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by Dec. 31, 2026. * Odds fell from 85.5% as headlines around Iran's leadership and mass funeral events underscored persistent regional risk. * The market resolves on Dec. 31, 2026; the Yes contract is down 26.0 percentage points versus the prior reading. Iran is preparing for a funeral procession in Tehran for its slain supreme leader, with organizers expecting millions to attend. The event is set to take place today in the capital. The anticipated turnout highlights the scale of public mobilization around the leadership's death. The report frames the procession as a central moment in the ongoing Iran war coverage. Attention is focused on Tehran as the ceremony proceeds amid heightened tensions. Polymarket Data: $4.20M Volume as "Yes" Drops 26 Points (85.5% to 59.5%) Ahead of Dec. 31, 2026 Resolution On Polymarket, "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" was last priced at Yes 59.5% and No 40.5%, with about $4.20 million in volume. The move marks a steep repricing from the prior 85.5% level for Yes, a 26.0 percentage-point drop. The current split shows traders still leaning toward normalization by the Dec. 31, 2026 resolution date, but with materially less conviction than earlier pricing. Watch whether the Yes price stabilizes around the high-50s or continues to slide on fresh liquidity, and monitor any follow-through in volume that would confirm the shift in positioning ahead of the Dec. 31, 2026 resolution. Beyond the Strait of Hormuz: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching Elsewhere on Polymarket, traders are spreading risk across adjacent Iran-focused timelines and diplomacy bets that could move broader geopolitical pricing. "Iran leader end of 2026?" is led by Mojtaba Khamenei at 83.3% with about $18.13 million in volume, while shorter-dated shipping contracts remain heavily skewed to disruption, with "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?" at 98.25% No ($7.33 million) and "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" at 90.5% No ($12.32 million). On the negotiation front, "Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?" points to July 31 at 72.0% ($4.94 million), as "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by...?" sits at 45.5% for December 31 with roughly $7.43 million traded. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? * Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Leading implied prob.: 59.5% * Volume: ~$4,201,899 * Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 59.5% / No 40.5%; No: Yes 59.5% / No 40.5%
Polymarket Traders See Only 21% Chance of Bitcoin Reaching $70K This July - Crypto Economy
The probabilities of Bitcoin's price reaching $70,000 before the end of July are 21%, or at least that is how traders on the prediction market platform Polymarket estimate it. Despite the asset currently trading near $61,600, the community's skepticism remains firm within a betting market that already accumulates over $1.16 million in total volume. This marked caution among traders directly contrasts with an institutional landscape showing signs of recovery. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States recently recorded a daily net inflow of $221.7 million, marking their strongest capital inflow since early May and breaking a negative streak of ten consecutive days of massive outflows. The market's next step will depend on macroeconomic and regulatory factors, such as the evolution of capital inflows into ETFs and potential legislative progress in the United States Congress. Source: https://goo.su/UCQmU Disclaimer: Crypto Economy Flash News is prepared from official and public sources verified by our editorial team. Its purpose is to quickly inform about relevant events in the crypto and blockchain ecosystem. This information does not constitute financial advice or investment recommendations. We recommend always verifying the official channels of each project before making related decisions.
Bitter Rivals Kalshi and Polymarket Unite to Battle Minnesota Over Betting Ban
Kalshi and Polymarket, two fierce rivals, have filed a lawsuit to stop Minnesota from enforcing a new statewide law that bans prediction market platforms. The firms claim that the contracts they offer are federally regulated products, while the state argues that the law is vital to address risks tied to gambling. The case could help define the extent of state authority to regulate prediction markets. 4th of July Sale - 70% Off * Unlock powerful investing tools and data-driven insights with TipRanks Premium for more confident investment decisions. * Discover top stock picks and new investment opportunities through TipRanks' Smart Investor Newsletter. Minnesota Enacts First Statewide Prediction Market Ban Minnesota's new law makes it a felony to operate, host, or advertise prediction markets in the state, forcing platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket to shut down or face criminal charges. It is the first U.S. state law to explicitly ban such platforms, covering contracts tied to entertainment, elections, sports, weather, public health crises, and wars. Governor Tim Walz signed the measure into law on May 18, and it is set to take effect on August 1. Supporters, led by Democratic Representative Emma Greenman, say the law is needed to regulate emerging forms of gambling and protect consumers and minors. Kalshi, Polymarket Push Back Against Minnesota Ban Kalshi and Polymarket filed the case in the U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota, asking the court to temporarily block the law before it takes effect. A federal judge in Minneapolis heard the case on July 2 but did not issue an immediate ruling. The firms contend that prediction markets are lawful financial products used for forecasting and managing risk, not gambling. They also say the ban could push users toward offshore or unregulated platforms instead of regulated U.S. markets. In addition, Kalshi and Polymarket argue their event contracts fall under the sole jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), making Minnesota's law incompatible with federal oversight. The CFTC has also filed a separate lawsuit against the state, saying event-based contracts should be regulated at the federal level rather than by individual states. Can I Invest in Kalshi or Polymarket? Kalshi and Polymarket are private companies, meaning they do not yet have publicly traded shares. However, investors seeking exposure to the broader prediction market or event-contract space may consider publicly listed firms such as Robinhood Markets (HOOD), DraftKings (DKNG), and Flutter Entertainment (FLUT). (See Their Stock Forecasts)
Yen steadies on intervention talk as Polymarket sees 67.5% Fed hold
Fed September 2026 Decision: "No Change" Holds Lead at 67.5% as Yen Intervention Risk Cools Hike Bets Polymarket pricing on the Federal Reserve's "Fed Decision in September?" contract leaned toward no change after a report said the Japanese yen steadied as intervention risks rose and market expectations for a Fed hike eased. The leading "No change" outcome last traded at 67.5%, down slightly from 68.0%. Key Takeaways * Polymarket implies a 67.5% chance the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged after its September 2026 meeting. * A softer tone in rate-hike expectations alongside FX-market focus on yen intervention risk coincided with a small dip in "No change" pricing. * The contract resolves on 2026-09-16, with "No change" up 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours. The Japanese yen steadied after traders weighed rising risks of official intervention in currency markets. The report said expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike eased, shifting attention away from a more aggressive U.S. policy path. The foreign-exchange move came as markets assessed relative interest-rate outlooks and potential policy responses. The combination of intervention chatter and softer Fed hike expectations shaped near-term positioning in major currency pairs. Polymarket Odds & Volume: $1.316M Traded as 25 bps Hike Sits at 24.5% and Cut Scenarios Stay Below 4% On Polymarket, the ladder shows "No change" as the dominant outcome at 67.5% Yes versus 32.5% No on $1.316 million in volume. A 25 bps increase is priced at 24.5% Yes and 75.5% No, while a 25 bps decrease sits at 3.9% Yes and 96.1% No. The tails remain lightly priced, with 50+ bps decrease at 2.35% Yes / 97.65% No and 50+ bps increase at 0.95% Yes / 99.05% No, signaling traders are concentrated in a hold-or-hike base case rather than large moves. Watch whether the probability spread between "No change" (67.5%) and "25 bps increase" (24.5%) tightens as liquidity and volume build into the 2026-09-16 resolution date. Beyond the Fed: Other High-Volume Macro and FX Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching Beyond the September call, Polymarket traders are also clustering in adjacent macro and political gauges that can swing rate and dollar narratives. "Fed Decision in July?" shows 90.5% for "No change" on $35,024,821 in volume, while "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" prices "0 (0 bps)" at 77.55% with $40,376,343 traded. In longer-horizon policy bets, "Fed rate hike in 2026?" has "No" at 53.5% on $3,402,573, and the 2026 power balance is in play too with "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" favoring the Republican Party at 56.5% on $3,075,255. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Fed Decision in September? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Sep 16, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$1,315,970 Top strike rungs +1 more strikes not shown
Spot Bitcoin ETFs end outflows as Polymarket prices 99.95% odds above $50K
Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit $221.7M, Lifting Polymarket "Bitcoin Above ___ on July 4?" Odds Toward Higher Strikes U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $221.7 million on Thursday, snapping a 10-day outflow streak, as traders watched whether renewed fund demand could support Bitcoin's rebound. On Polymarket's ladder market "Bitcoin above ___ on July 4?", pricing continues to imply high odds that Bitcoin stays above lower strike levels into the July 4 resolution window. Key Takeaways * Polymarket prices imply a 99.95% chance Bitcoin will be above $50,000 on July 4. * Traders kept the ladder skewed to the upside as ETF flows flipped positive, while higher strikes remain heavily discounted. * The contract resolves at 2026-07-04T16:00:00+00:00, with odds little changed over the past 24 hours. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million of net inflows on Thursday, the biggest one-day intake in two months, ending a 10-day stretch of outflows, according to SoSoValue. Fidelity's FBTC led with $165.96 million of inflows, followed by ARKB with $91.84 million and HODL with $4.35 million. BlackRock's IBIT, the largest bitcoin ETF, was the exception, posting a $40.43 million outflow. The 10-day run of redemptions totaled $2.73 billion, leaving year-to-date net outflows at about $5.4 billion. The report said the inflow rebound helped validate Bitcoin's move back to around $61,700 after it fell below $58,000 earlier in the week, though analysts said sustained inflows would be needed to confirm a lasting recovery. Polymarket Ladder Sees $360,302 Volume as Bitcoin $50K Odds Sit at 99.95% and $62K Is Priced at 40% Polymarket has logged $360,302 in volume on the "Bitcoin above ___ on July 4?" ladder, with pricing clustered at near-certainty for several lower strikes. The market shows $50,000 Yes 99.95% / No 0.05%, and the same 99.95% / 0.05% split at both $52,000 and $54,000, indicating traders see those downside levels as extremely unlikely to be breached by the July 4 close. Confidence drops at mid-range levels, with $60,000 Yes 94.5% / No 5.5% and $62,000 Yes 40% / No 60% implying a more balanced view around that threshold. Upside tails remain priced as long shots, including $64,000 Yes 3.05% / No 96.95% and $70,000 Yes 0.05% / No 99.95%. Watch whether ETF flows remain positive after Thursday's reversal and whether the ladder's inflection point near the $62,000 strike shifts ahead of the 2026-07-04T16:00:00+00:00 resolution. Beyond Bitcoin ETFs: Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching Right Now Beyond the July 4 ladder, traders have been concentrating liquidity in broader, time-boxed crypto range contracts that effectively map near-term and long-dated sentiment. "What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?" has drawn $45,944,904 in volume, while "What price will Bitcoin hit in July?" sits at $1,302,181 and "What price will Bitcoin hit June 29-July 5?" at $917,465. Activity has also spilled into ether, with "What price will Ethereum hit in July?" seeing $682,596 as participants position across correlated moves. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Bitcoin above ___ on July 4? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Jul 04, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$360,302 Top strike rungs +7 more strikes not shown
