News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
Winning Polymarket bets on strange temps at Paris airport spark tampering probe: reports
Mystery Polymarket traders raked in huge profits after correctly predicting an unusual temperature spike at a weather station in Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport, prompting French officials to launch an investigation into suspected tampering. Polymarket, a leading prediction market, allows users to place bets on the maximum temperature based on readings at specific locations around the world. On April 15, the temperature in Paris was 18 degrees Celsius and trending downward when it inexplicably spiked to 22 degrees Celsius at 9:30 p.m. - before rapidly plunging again. Just before the spike, Polymarket user "xX25Xx" placed an approximately $120 bet that the day's top temperature in Paris would exceed 18 degrees Celsius - even as 99% of other users predicted it wouldn't, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing data from analytics firm Bubblemaps. The user earned more than $21,000 in profit on the trade. A similar incident reportedly occurred on April 6, when a Polymarket user called "Hoaqin" earned nearly $14,000 after predicting that the temperature in Paris, which had peaked at 18 degrees Celsius late that afternoon, would hit 21 degrees. Météo-France, the country's weather forecasting office, examined its sensors at the airport and ultimately filed a complaint with local police due to concerns that someone had meddled with the system, a spokesperson told the Journal. Tampering with temperature sensors in airports is potentially dangerous because airlines and air traffic controllers rely on accurate data to safely operate flights. Polymarket representatives did not immediately answer a request for comment. Since the wagers, the prediction market has switched to gathering its weather data for Paris at a location in Paris-Le Bourget Airport, according to its website. Polymarket and Kalshi have faced growing scrutiny in recent months due to concerns that users could attempt to rig "prediction" bets in their favor. Recent incidents include a wave of bets on Polymarket that correctly predicted when the US would begin airstrikes on Iran, as well as a surge in trading activity on oil futures on March 23 just minutes before President Trump announced he wouldn't target Iran's power plants. Earlier this month, the White House warned staffers not to use any inside information to place bets.
Polymarket Diving into Perp Futures for Long and Short Assets Trading - Tekedia
Polymarket announced they're launching perpetual futures (perps), letting users go long or short on assets; crypto like BTC, equities like NVDA, commodities like gold with leverage at least 10x mentioned in reports, 24/7, no expiry. We price the future, Now you can lever it. It's a direct expansion beyond binary event contracts. This move and Kalshi racing them on similar perps plans shows smart business: Prediction markets excel at high-conviction, event-driven pricing -- crowd wisdom on discrete outcomes with clear resolution. Perps shine for continuous directional trading, leverage, and scalping without waiting for expiry. Perps are a monster volume driver in crypto; on-chain perps did hundreds of billions monthly. Prediction markets have massive engagement spikes (elections, big events) but can be lumpy. Adding 24/7 levered trading on known markets keeps users sticky and multiplies activity. You can already express nuanced views on Polymarket. Perps let you lever those convictions or hedge them indefinitely. High-frequency traders get micro-edges amplified; conviction holders get size without tying up huge capital in illiquid binaries. Kalshi's crypto push forced their hand. Both are evolving from event betting toward fuller trading platforms. Polymarket's user base, hundreds of thousands MAU + perps could challenge pure perp DEXs like Hyperliquid in certain flows. Perps aren't eating prediction markets. Perps are great for ongoing price exposure but they suck at many things prediction markets handle cleanly: Binary or multi-outcome events (election winner, "will this bill pass", sports results, obscure news). Information aggregation on low-liquidity or narrative-driven stuff where expiry forces resolution. Pure "will this happen?" conviction without constant funding rates or liquidation drama. Perps can approximate some of this like event-linked perps, but the mechanics differ -- funding rates, margin, no natural resolution. Prediction markets are basically event derivatives with built-in oracle resolution. They're complementary: perps for flow and leverage, preds for discovery and truth-seeking on real-world outcomes. Crypto history shows this pattern -- DEXs added perps for volume, but spot, options, and niche products including event contracts still grew. Polymarket isn't pivoting; they're layering a high-margin, high-engagement product on their core strength; pricing the future via crowd bets. Derivatives keep winning because speculation is sticky, leverage amplifies everything, and platforms want to own more of the user's wallet and time. The launch comes amid intense competition with Kalshi another prediction market platform also eyeing perps and crypto trading. Polymarket appears to have beaten Kalshi to the public announcement, escalating a rivalry in both event-based and continuous derivatives. It aligns with Polymarket's broader growth: Explosive volume in 2025-2026, fueled by high-profile events like elections and geopolitical news. Reports of ambitious fundraising: aiming for ~$400M at a potential $15 billion valuation. Regulatory progress, including CFTC-related developments, positioning it for U.S. and global expansion while staying crypto-friendly. But calling it perp over prediction market is like saying options killed spot trading. Both thrive when the underlying; real events, price discovery is interesting. Prediction markets proved they can pull real money and attention on big macro and political calls. Perps will probably boost Polymarket's overall volume and make it a stickier app. Expect more hybrid stuff: levered event exposure, perpetual prediction-like contracts, etc. Bullish for the whole ecosystem -- more tools for expressing views on the future, whether discrete or continuous.
Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets
A hairdryer was allegedly used to rig Polymarket bets on the weather at Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris, . French authorities note that the official temperature readings at the airport spiked twice in the past month, reaching levels much higher than expected. On both occasions, gamblers on Polymarket appear to have walked away with thousands upon thousands of dollars by betting on those temperature fluctuations. The gambling site relies on readings from temperature sensors, and the one at Charles de Gaulle airport is on a public road. This makes it easy to access. The operating theory is that someone snuck in and used a battery-powered hairdryer to bring the recorded temperature up well beyond the actual heat outside. Meanwhile, the Polymarket page indicated less than a one percent chance of the airport exceeding a particular temperature. Successful bets on these fluctuations netted an unknown user around $34,000. "In view of physical findings on one of our instruments and the analysis of sensor data, Météo-France was indeed led to file a complaint for alteration of the operation of an automated data processing system with the Air Transport Gendarmerie Brigade of Roissy," a spokesperson for France's official weather agency said. There is no indication that Polymarket forced anyone to return their winnings, but the temperature sensor has been moved to a new location. The site is on the daily temperature in and around Paris. It sucks that someone potentially tricked a temperature sensor with a hairdryer to scam actual gamblers out of potential winnings. However, this sort of thing should be expected when betting money on real-world scenarios like this. If something can be rigged, and there's money to be made, it'll get rigged. Humans are gonna human. This does, however, shine a light on the types of bets that should be allowed on sites like Polymarket and Kalshi. Polymarket, for instance, hosts numerous bets on the , whether or not countries and , among many other sensitive topics. What happens when someone uses something much more dangerous than a hairdryer to change the outcome of something for financial gain?
Odd Weather Forecast Investigated After Polymarket Spike
French authorities are investigating potential tampering of critical weather sensors at Paris Charles de Gaulle International Airport that could be tied to prediction market trading. Temperature readings spiked on two evenings this month, beating highs recorded from the daytime. According to Bloomberg, the sensors are both critical to aviation operations at the airport and are also relied upon as official data points in prediction markets, where traders can bet money on certain weather trends. On the two days of suspected tampering, money flowed to temperature predictions at the French airport at more than double the usual volume. One account on Polymarket recorded $21,000 in profit betting on temperature at the airport. Meteorologists inspected the sensors, which spiked 39 degrees Fahrenheit one day and 41 degrees Fahrenheit on the other day. After investigating, they filed a report with airport police for tampering with the system, as Bloomberg reports. Hacking weather systems at an airport is especially dangerous, as temperature data is needed for departing and arriving aircraft and is used by air traffic control to plan routes and spacing between airplanes.
Vercel says some customer accounts were compromised prior to its early-April breach, potentially through social engineering, malware, or other methods
@itsmarkmoran: YES, I did bet ~$100 on myself on Kalshi because I wanted to get caught... After discovering potential manipulation on polymarket in the NYC mayoral race (NY Post reported on this) I realized how rife with corruption kalshi is...I mean death markets...come on.... Today, we're releasing notices related to three enforcement investigations. All three cases concern political insider trading and were flagged because of our newly released safeguards to block political candidates from trading on their own elections. Kalshi does not tolerate anyone cheating or skirting the rules. Regulated exchanges must constantly evolve and adapt their systems to address insider threats.
413 million bets with over $100 million at stake: the latest Polymarket insider trading Trump controversy | Fortune
Will President Donald Trump send troops into Iran? Will he rename the Strait of Hormuz after himself? Will he post again praising Allah? No one knows the answers, but online betting companies that allow people to wager on Trump policies and statements are profiting -- including some backed by his oldest son. Prediction markets love the president's unpredictability, his need to keep people guessing about his next move or social media post, leading to more wagers in these betting venues and more fees for them. That includes Polymarket, a company Donald Trump Jr. has a stake in, and Kalshi, a company he advises. These sites have to come up with new betting lines on current events everyday, and Trump Jr.'s famously fickle father has proven to be a rich source of will-he-or-won't-he questions. When a wagering event on Polymarket asked whether Trump was likely to send troops into Iran, nearly 100,000 bets were placed on April 8, leading to the biggest trading day of the year up to then. And Trump's policies and social media comments generate bets beyond the war-related ones: Who will Trump back to run Venezuela? Will his insults of Pope Leo XIV continue? Will he seize Greenland? "Trump is the guy. He makes the market possible," said Kwok Ping Tsang, a Virginia Tech economist who has studied Polymarket. "He's so unpredictable." Sports wagers make up the largest portion of the volume on prediction markets, but politics runs a close second, according to crypto analysis firm Dune. People are also betting "Yes" or "No" on all kinds of other things -- the price of gold, the winner of "Survivor," even the weather. The cost of the wager, in cents per dollar, reflects the number of people making the same bet, with a price of 49 cents for "Yes," for instance, reflecting 49% odds. The betting has drawn bipartisan criticism for inviting insider trading but the president seems to be a big fan, applying a light regulatory touch and helping the industry expand. His family company, the Trump Organization, is even working on opening its own prediction market, called Truth Predict. One of the biggest fee generators lately has been Trump's approach to the Iran war, notably his Truth Social post on April 5 demanding the country "Open the F -- - Strait." Trading on Polymarket soared with "Yes" or "No" wagers on whether an invasion was imminent, according to Dune, only to be surpassed on April 7 by betting on another question -- Will there be a ceasefire? -- when Trump posted ominously that a "whole civilization will die tonight." In total, 413 million bets on the Iran war were made risking more than $100 million from Sunday, April 5, through Wednesday, April 8, the day after Trump announced a ceasefire, according to Dune. In a report after the surge, Dune called Trump an "unpredictability machine" and marveled at how his "governing-by-tweet" style sends trading volumes soaring. Asked whether the president's son should be profiting from a business benefitting from his father's actions, a Trump Jr. spokesman called the question "fact-free Democratic propaganda." "Don does not interface with the federal government as part of his role with any company that he invests in or advises and has no influence or involvement with administration policies relating to prediction markets," said the spokesman, Andrew Surabian. Polymarket didn't respond to a request for comment. The betting venues have jumped in popularity since Trump was reelected in November 2024 in part because they correctly predicted, unlike many pundits, that he would win decisively. Since then the Trump administration has sued states trying to ban prediction markets under no-gambling laws. The head of the industry's chief regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has even promoted the business publicly, calling the online bets in a Wall Street Journal op-ed "exciting products." Benefiting particularly has been Polymarket, which was banned from operating anywhere in the U.S. in 2022 after the Biden administration fined it for running an unregistered exchange. It recently got permission to return, and its value has soared. The company is now worth $9.6 billion, according to research firm PitchBook, a nearly tenfold increase in eight months since a venture capital fund in which Trump Jr. is a partner last invested. Just how much Trump Jr. is benefiting from the increase in value is unclear because Polymarket is private and doesn't release ownership stakes. Kalshi, which took on Trump Jr. as an adviser last year, is also private. As for profiting off turmoil and war, Trump Jr. has other possible ways besides the prediction markets. Through his venture capital fund he also owns pieces of aerospace, defense and technology companies seeking Pentagon contracts and other federal agency dollars. Separately, he and his brother, Eric, just struck a deal giving them stakes in a military drone maker not just selling to the U.S. forces but also pitching to Gulf countries under Iranian attack and beholden to their father for U.S. military protection in a war he started. Asked last month about the drone company potentially profiting off his father's position as president, Eric Trump sent The Associated Press a statement saying, "I am incredibly proud to invest in companies I believe in." Critics in Congress, virtually all Democrats, have decried what they believe is blatant profiting off the presidency, and are waiting for the midterms to do something about it, possibly voting for impeachment. But whether that happens is anyone's guess -- or to be more specific, tens of thousands of guesses. In Polymarket trading, those betting that Trump would get impeached by the end of his term were putting the chances at 13% at the start of the year. But that has changed dramatically after his "civilization wipe out" threat and calls from Democrats to oust him from office. AP reporters Ken Sweet in New York and Christopher Keller in Albuquerque, N.M., contributed to this story.
Polymarket trader bags $37K after sudden Paris temperature spike, probe begins- Moneycontrol.com
Météo-France filed complaint over suspected sensor tampering Unusual temperature spikes at a key weather station in Paris have triggered an investigation after traders on Polymarket made about $37,000 betting on unlikely outcomes. The bets were tied to daily temperature prediction markets based on readings from a Météo-France station at Charles de Gaulle Airport. Data from the station showed sudden and short-lived spikes on April 6 and April 15, which determined the settlement of the contracts. On April 6, temperatures briefly crossed 21°C before quickly dropping, while on April 15, readings jumped to around 22°C after hovering near 18°C for most of the day. According to Bloomberg, these spikes represented the highest recorded temperatures for those days, allowing certain bets to pay out. Market data cited in the reports showed that one trader made over $16,000 from the April 6 contract, while another gained more than $21,000 on April 15 by betting against the expected temperature outcome. Blockchain analytics platform Bubblemaps flagged suspicious trading activity, noting that a trader began placing bets shortly before the spike occurred. Meteorologists and analysts have questioned whether the readings could have been manipulated. Ruben Hallali, a meteorologist and CEO of weather intelligence firm HD Rain, told Bloomberg the sudden temperature changes were "very unlikely" to be natural and pointed to possible on-site interference with the sensor. Following the anomalies, Météo-France said it had inspected the station and filed a complaint with airport police over suspected tampering with an automated data processing system. The readings are not only used for forecasting but are also critical for aviation operations, including takeoff and landing calculations. The incident has also raised broader concerns about the integrity of prediction markets, which have seen a surge in popularity. Critics argue that such platforms are vulnerable to manipulation, insider trading, and regulatory gaps, especially when contracts depend on a single data source. After the incident, Polymarket switched its Paris temperature data source to another airport station, according to its website.
French Weather Agency Alerts Police to Sensor 'Interference' After $35K Polymarket Payouts - Decrypt
Météo France has filed a police complaint alleging interference with its automated data processing systems. Well-timed Polymarket bets on the temperature in Paris saw traders walk away with more than $35,000 -- triggering a police complaint from France's national weather agency. On April 6 and again on April 15, temperature readings from a sensor operated by Météo France, the French government's official weather agency, near the Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport runway spiked by more than three degrees Celsius before snapping back to normal within minutes, French broadcaster BFMTV reported. Multiple accounts appeared to have placed large bets on long-shot outcomes on the markets, according to the Financial Times. Per BFMTV, one trader made $14,000 trading on a market linked to the sensor on April 6, with a stake of "only a few dozen dollars." Blockchain analytics platform Bubblemaps flagged another such trade made on April 15 in a Wednesday post, noting that one account purchased "NO" shares on an 18°C outcome when odds sat below 1%, spent roughly $120, and exited with around $21,000, a 180x return, within 30 minutes of the spike. "While this trader has a long history in weather markets, this bet stands out," Bubblemaps wrote. "His average bet: $6 at 72% odds. This one: $120, 20x larger, at 0.6% odds -- placed minutes before the anomaly." Météo France has since filed a complaint for "interference with the operation of an automated data processing system" with the Roissy Air Transport Gendarmerie Brigade, "in light of physical findings on one of our instruments and the analysis of sensor data," a spokesperson for the weather agency told Decrypt. The incidents expose a structural vulnerability in prediction markets that peg payouts to a single real-world data point. "Basing a contract on the observations of a single weather station probably isn't a good idea," Mark Roulston, a researcher focused on prediction markets at Lancaster University, told Decrypt. "Even in the absence of malicious activity, individual weather stations can develop faults or return anomalous readings," Roulston said. He noted that national weather centres have "procedures for weeding out anomalous readings" when using station data in their models, saying how basing contracts on an average across multiple stations would make them "less easy to manipulate" and "potentially more useful" for forecasting applications such as energy demand. The April 6 account had been created just two days before the winning bet was placed, BFMTV noted, raising questions about whether the platform, already linked to alleged insider trading tied to the Iran war and banned in France, had enabled a malicious actor to manipulate its markets. The episode is the second market-integrity incident to hit Polymarket in as many weeks. Last week, UFC announcer Bruce Buffer misread a fight result live on air at UFC 327 in Miami, briefly sending one fighter's odds to 99.9% before the error was corrected, enabling a trader to turn $500 into more than $252,000. Prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are facing mounting scrutiny. Last month, a bipartisan pair of U.S. senators, Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT), introduced a bill that would ban platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi from offering sports-related wagers altogether. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has thrown its weight behind the platforms, filing lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut, saying the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over the sector, following actions by the states against the platforms. Polymarket is currently in talks to raise $400 million at a roughly $15 billion valuation, following a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange last month.
France Probes Weather Data Tampering After Surge in Polymarket Bets
France's forecasting office flagged suspected tampering with weather sensors at the country's largest airport and referred the case to police, after detecting unusual readings alongside heavy betting on a popular prediction market. Automated temperature readings taken at Meteo France's weather station at Charles de Gaulle International Airport spiked 4C and 5C unexpectedly in the evenings of April 6 and April 15, respectively, reaching the highest temperature recorded at the site on those days, data from the installation show. Readings from the site are important for the safe operation of the airport. They are also used to settle contracts for daily high temperatures on Polymarket, according to information on the website where traders place bets on real-world outcomes. Weather betting has boomed on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi Inc., where individual traders and weather experts have flocked to put money behind their predictions for temperatures, or the amount of rain or snowfall in particular areas on specific dates. Boosters say prediction markets create economic and social value by providing better information about what will happen in the world. Detractors call them glorified gambling vulnerable to manipulation, insider trading and other shenanigans. Concerns have emerged for other contracts on prediction markets, including claims from an Israeli journalist that Polymarket users pressured him to change a story about missile strikes outside Jerusalem. Prediction market traders and independent meteorologists in a French weather discussion forum flagged the data irregularities and questioned the results of the contracts, which attracted roughly $1.4 million in combined bets, according to Polymarket data. Total betting for each was more than double the typical volume for other daily Paris temperature contracts in April. A spokesperson for Meteo France, Laurent Becler, said technicians examined sensor data and inspected the weather station, and the forecasting office subsequently filed a complaint for tampering with the operation of an automated data processing system to airport police. Becler declined to answer additional questions about the possible tampering and data irregularities. Airport police declined to answer questions about the complaint and referred questions to court officials, who declined to answer a request for more information. Charles de Gaulle International Airport declined to comment. Representatives for Polymarket did not respond to questions about the weather contracts. Betting on Paris temperatures switched to using data collected at Paris-Le Bourget Airport instead of Charles de Gaulle on April 19, according to Polymarket's website. Meteorologist Ruben Hallali, chief executive officer and co-founder of Paris-based weather intelligence firm HD Rain, said he was among those who reported the anomalous data to Meteo France, where he previously worked. Hallali said he closely monitors the airport weather station because his firm certifies parametric insurance -- policies that don't require proof of loss and pay out when specific conditions are met -- for clients there. "That's why I was able to spot very quickly the fact that there was a data manipulation," he said. The April 15 data are particularly unusual, Hallali said. On that day, temperatures hit 18.8C in the late afternoon and started to taper off before surging from 16.9C to 21.9C in 12 minutes, data from the weather station show. Humidity levels also plunged abruptly around this time, he said On Polymarket, one trader made more than $21,000 betting that 18C would not be the highest temperature recorded that day, data from the prediction market show. The consequences of tampering with sensors at an airport could be severe, Hallali said. The data give pilots and air traffic controllers critically important readings on temperature, wind, visibility and other conditions. Those data are used for takeoffs and landings, to determine which runways are used and helping air traffic controllers set routes and spacing between aircraft. Weather station data are also used to calibrate altitude and fuel use for other aircraft, Hallali said. "If there is a mistake in this data, it can be dangerous," he said.
Unusual Weather Bets on Polymarket Spur French Investigation
France's national weather service is investigating anomalous temperature spikes at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport, leading to lucrative Polymarket payoffs. Prediction markets have spurred repeated allegations of skulduggery in recent months, ranging from insider trading by politicians to suspected rigging of bets on the Ukraine war. Now, controversy has erupted in one of their more sedate corners: wagers on the weather. France's national weather service is investigating irregularities at a monitoring station at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport after it reported anomalous temperature spikes. The spikes led to lucrative payoffs for some traders on Polymarket, the crypto-based betting platform. The spikes drew the attention of local weather enthusiasts. Suspecting that traders had tampered with the data, they alerted the service, called Météo-France, which in turn notified French police. One mystery trader, with the username "xX25Xx," made more than $21,000 in profit from a bet of just under $120 thanks to one such temperature spike on April 15, according to Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics firm. The trader has since deleted their Polymarket username, meaning they now show up as an unlabeled anonymous account. Every day, Polymarket lists contracts that allow its users to bet on the maximum temperature in dozens of cities worldwide. Its Paris contract is based on the reading at Charles de Gaulle airport, as reported by Weather Underground, an online weather data provider. On April 15, the temperature in Paris had reached 18 degrees Celsius in the afternoon and was cooling down in the evening when the airport gauge showed a brief, unexplained jump, hitting 22 degrees Celsius at 9:30 p.m. local time, Weather Underground data shows. Other nearby weather stations didn't show a similar spike. Just before the anomaly, xX25Xx placed cheap, long-shot bets on Polymarket that the maximum temperature in Paris that day wouldn't be 18 degrees Celsius, when other bettors were more than 99% sure that the day's top temperature would remain at that level. The airport weather station also registered a temperature spike around 7 p.m. on April 6. That day, a Polymarket account with username "Hoaqin" made nearly $14,000 in profit by betting that Paris temperatures would peak at 21 degrees Celsius, Polymarket data shows. Temperatures at Charles de Gaulle had been hovering at around 18 degrees in the late afternoon, according to Weather Underground data. Sébastien Brana was among several weather enthusiasts who noticed the unusual temperature activity and posted about it on an online weather forum run by Infoclimat, a nonprofit where Brana is a board member. "Someone apparently won $14k with a bet," Brana wrote. He later added that his group had alerted contacts at Météo-France -- an alert that he said "was taken very seriously." Brana didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. Météo-France confirmed that the weather service had examined one of its monitoring stations and analyzed weather-sensor data. The service has since filed a complaint with police at Charles de Gaulle airport related to tampering with an automated data system, spokeswoman Elenie Alfera said. A Polymarket spokesperson declined to comment. The traders behind the xX25Xx and Hoaqin accounts couldn't be reached. Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal. The weather trades took place on Polymarket's international platform. While the company recently launched a regulated betting platform for U.S. users, its international platform remains largely unregulated. Traders have periodically alleged attempts to rig the outcome of Polymarket's betting contracts by tampering with the sources used to determine answers to the yes-or-no questions that its users bet on. In November, some Polymarket users were upset by what proved to be a flawed determination that Russia had seized the Ukrainian town of Myrnohrad. Such bets are settled using an online map maintained by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank. Just as Polymarket's betting contract was set to expire, ISW's map erroneously showed Myrnohrad to be under Russian control, even though Russia hadn't actually captured the town. The think tank later apologized and fired an employee over the incident. In March, an Israeli journalist said he had received death threats from Polymarket bettors demanding that he revise his article about an Iranian missile strike on March 10. The details of his article were used to settle bets on whether Iran had carried out a missile, drone or airstrike that day. Soon after the incident, Polymarket explicitly prohibited insider trading and market manipulation on its international platform for the first time. The amended rules state that Polymarket users can't trade contracts where they can influence the outcome of the underlying event. A similar prohibition is in place in regulated prediction markets such as Polymarket's main competitor, Kalshi, as well as at Polymarket's new U.S. platform.
Netanyahu's rhetoric on Christians, Lebanon ops draw Polymarket attention
Netanyahu's rhetoric about protecting Christians and Israel's military operations in Lebanon have drawn attention on Polymarket. "Netanyahu out by June 30" trades at YES, while odds for his departure by April 30 sit at . Market reaction The YES odds for June 30 show traders see some possibility of political upheaval within 68 days but aren't betting heavily on it. The April 30 sub-market has barely moved, with traders skeptical about any near-term change to Netanyahu's tenure. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026 sits at 100% YES, despite aggressive military actions. This disconnect suggests traders are either mispricing risk or expecting diplomatic interventions to produce a ceasefire regardless of current operations. Why it matters Combined USDC volume across both Netanyahu markets is $5,970, a low figure that signals limited trader engagement so far. The June 30 market requires $11,869 to move 5 points, meaning the book is relatively thick and would need real liquidity to shift. The largest recorded move was a 1-point spike, so sentiment has been flat. What to watch Netanyahu's statements have drawn attention, but the tier-3 source reporting them limits their market impact. A YES share in the June 30 market at pays $1 if he leaves office, a return. That payout only makes sense if you expect significant political shifts or international pressure to materialize within weeks. Key catalysts: official statements from the Israeli Knesset or concrete international diplomatic moves. Either could change Netanyahu's political standing or accelerate ceasefire developments. API access
Hair dryer trick behind €25,000 win? France probes Polymarket bet scam
Officials in France have launched an investigation into the potential compromise of national weather sensors after a series of anomalous temperature readings coincided with betting activity on Polymarket. Météo-France has initiated an inquiry to determine whether the meteorological infrastructure managed by them was targeted by individuals seeking to influence prediction markets. This development follows reports of highly unusual temperature spikes that triggered significant financial payouts on the blockchain-based site Polymarket, where users place wagers on real-world events. Investigators are examining if the integrity of the national weather network was breached through physical or digital interference, as the precision of the winning bets suggests the actors involved may have had direct control over the reported data. Online rumors, which remain unverified for the time being, claim the temperature reading was manipulated by someone using a hair dryer to generate a higher temperature. Polymarket reportedly settles Paris temperature bets on a single Météo-France sensor sitting near the Charles de Gaulle airport perimeter. On 6 April, the reading from the sensor abruptly rose 4°C in twelve minutes, crossing the 22°C threshold despite data from other sources showing different figures. A user on Polymarket aggressively bet on readings above 21°C on that specific day, even though the consensus was lower at 18°C, and profited almost €30,000. A second similar anomaly occurred on 19 April leading to suspicions that the sensor was tampered with. Météo-France announced that it has filed a complaint with the Roissy air transport gendarmerie brigade "for [the] alteration of the operation of an automated data processing system," after an analysis of sensor data. Polymarket suspended its reliance on the compromised weather data source for Paris, shifting its resolution metric from the sensor in Charles de Gaulle airport to the one in Paris-Le Bourget airport. However, it did not cancel the contracts or refund the bets, leaving the resolved contracts final, even though on previous occasions it has suspended the resolution of certain bets until further clarification on the rules and circumstances. Decentralised 'oracles' and prediction markets This incident has reignited the debate over the reliability of the "oracles" that feed data to prediction markets in order to settle bets. In decentralised finance, an oracle is the mechanism that feeds external, real-world information into a smart contract to determine a financial outcome. Polymarket relies on these feeds to settle its contracts, often pulling data directly from official government websites. If the primary source of that data is corrupted, the betting market lacks any internal mechanism to verify the truth. Additionally, the decentralised nature of these platforms makes it difficult to freeze assets even if an investigation identifies the individuals behind suspicious trades. This is the latest case that highlights a new frontier of white-collar crime, where the manipulation of the physical world is used to exploit the vulnerabilities of automated prediction markets in order to win bets on real-world events.
Anthropic's valuation has hit $1T on Forge Global, a leading private marketplace exchange, surpassing OpenAI's valuation on the platform of $880B
@itsmarkmoran: YES, I did bet ~$100 on myself on Kalshi because I wanted to get caught... After discovering potential manipulation on polymarket in the NYC mayoral race (NY Post reported on this) I realized how rife with corruption kalshi is...I mean death markets...come on.... Today, we're releasing notices related to three enforcement investigations. All three cases concern political insider trading and were flagged because of our newly released safeguards to block political candidates from trading on their own elections. Kalshi does not tolerate anyone cheating or skirting the rules. Regulated exchanges must constantly evolve and adapt their systems to address insider threats.
Paris Weather Anomalies Lead to $37K Polymarket Windfall Amid Fraud Suspicions - Blockonomi
French meteorological agency files formal complaint over suspected Polymarket-related tampering Prediction market participants on Polymarket walked away with approximately $37,000 following questionable temperature fluctuations recorded in Paris, sparking serious questions about the platform's data verification processes. The controversial payouts stemmed from fleeting temperature measurements at Charles de Gaulle Airport that deviated significantly from surrounding monitoring stations. The incident has intensified scrutiny regarding Polymarket's vulnerability to data manipulation and its dependency on singular information sources. Two separate Polymarket betting markets focused on daily maximum temperatures in Paris during early April relied exclusively on data from the airport weather station. On April 6, temperature sensors momentarily registered readings exceeding 21 degrees Celsius before rapidly declining, establishing the official outcome for market settlement. A single participant claimed over $16,000 from this particular Polymarket contract resolution. The pattern repeated itself nine days later, once again influencing a Polymarket market tied to temperature measurements. Throughout April 15, the monitoring station consistently displayed approximately 18 degrees Celsius until an abrupt surge to 22 degrees Celsius occurred. This fleeting spike determined the final settlement parameters and generated another substantial payout for strategic bettors. French news organization BFMTV reported that both temperature anomalies lasted only brief moments and weren't replicated at other meteorological stations throughout the Paris metropolitan area. These discrepancies cast significant doubt on the accuracy of measurements governing Polymarket contract outcomes. The platform now confronts heightened skepticism regarding its settlement mechanisms. Cryptocurrency analytics platform Bubblemaps uncovered potentially coordinated trading behavior surrounding the April 15 Polymarket weather contract. Analysis revealed that one participant acquired NO positions betting against 18 degrees Celsius immediately preceding the temperature anomaly. This individual subsequently liquidated their Polymarket holdings for profits exceeding $21,000. Furthermore, Bubblemaps investigators confirmed that the temperature surge remained isolated to the single airport station, with no corresponding increases detected at adjacent monitoring facilities. This geographical inconsistency intensified concerns about Polymarket's settlement methodology based on solitary data feeds. The timing of trades relative to the reading sparked speculation about foreknowledge or potential influence. The profitable Polymarket wallet demonstrated extensive participation across diverse prediction categories, spanning cryptocurrency markets and meteorological forecasts. However, temperature-related contracts generated disproportionately large returns compared to other activities. Researchers characterized the trading sequence as anomalous within typical Polymarket user behavior patterns. Climate specialist Ruben Hallali examined the recorded temperature variations and concluded they contradicted standard meteorological patterns. His analysis indicated that such rapid fluctuations occurring within compressed timeframes lack consistency with natural atmospheric dynamics. The findings introduced the concerning possibility of deliberate manipulation affecting Polymarket market resolutions. Météo France, the nation's primary meteorological authority, submitted an official complaint to aviation security personnel. The filing alleged possible interference with automated weather monitoring infrastructure operating at the airport facility. Law enforcement officials subsequently initiated formal inquiries into the authenticity of temperature data utilized for Polymarket contract settlements. The prediction platform has experienced substantial expansion by offering markets on cryptocurrency trends, political outcomes, and tangible real-world events. Nevertheless, architectural dependence on individual data streams creates significant vulnerabilities when irregularities surface. The Paris weather controversy underscores critical weaknesses in Polymarket's verification infrastructure and settlement protocols that require immediate attention.
Weather Sensor Anomaly Raises Doubts About Polymarket
A temperature variation of a few degrees was enough to trigger gains of several tens of thousands of euros. At the origin of this situation, a Météo-France sensor suspected of having been tampered with, at the heart of betting on the Polymarket platform. This case, far from trivial, reveals a major vulnerability: when real-world data become financial instruments, their integrity becomes a critical issue for the entire crypto ecosystem. Suspicions grew after the detection of a sudden temperature variation on a Météo-France sensor located in Roissy. Within a few minutes, the temperature reportedly recorded a rapid increase of several degrees, a phenomenon considered inconsistent with the observed weather conditions. This anomaly is believed to have been exploited on the predictive betting platform Polymarket, allowing some users to generate significant gains, even as some US states already order the halt of these markets. In response to these events, Météo-France officially reacted by confirming an anomaly and citing an external cause. The institution thus declared : "we are filing a complaint for tampering with the operation of a data processing system," while mentioning the hypothesis of an "external intervention." These statements strengthen suspicions of targeted manipulation, directly linked to the exploitation of data used in financial markets. Here are the key facts observed : The hypothesis of a physical manipulation of the sensor quickly gained traction. Some elements suggest that an external device may have been used to alter the readings. This theory is notably based on the speed and magnitude of the variations observed, as well as the accessibility of the sensor concerned. Meanwhile, on Polymarket, the probabilities associated with certain weather scenarios reportedly evolved dramatically, jumping from very low to almost certain levels within moments, triggering immediate reactions from users. This episode reveals a structural vulnerability of predictive markets relying on external on-chain data. The direct link between a physical event and a financial outcome creates a vulnerability point exploitable whenever the data source can be influenced. Following the incident, the reference sensor was reportedly modified, proving that the issue goes beyond a simple anecdote to challenge the credibility of the systems used. Beyond this specific case, the affair raises questions about the robustness of mechanisms linking the real world to crypto infrastructures. It opens a debate about securing data sources, but also about the responsibility of platforms relying on them. While predictive markets gain popularity despite significant losses, their dependence on reliable physical data could become their main point of fragility, with potentially major consequences for user trust and the integrity of these new financial tools.
French weather service alerts police to tampering after suspicious Polymarket bets
France's weather forecasting service has filed a police complaint after detecting anomalies in its temperature gauges at Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport, which coincided with a surge in well-timed bets on prediction market Polymarket. Météo-France filed the complaint alleging interference with its equipment after temperatures measured at the airport spiked by several degrees Celsius in the space of a few minutes on April 6 and 15. Users of weather forums who noticed the sudden movements said they may have been caused by people tampering with the equipment to shape the outcome of wagers on Polymarket. Multiple accounts on the platform, where traders can bet on real-world outcomes, appeared to have placed large bets on unexpected temperature rises in Paris. Polymarket uses Météo-France data recorded at Charles de Gaulle to settle wagers on the highest temperature of the day in the city. Predicting weather patterns has become a popular activity on the platform. On April 6, one wallet made $13,990 in profit on a stake of less than $30 after betting that the temperature in Paris would hit 21C. The account, which was opened this month, bought so-called event contracts when their price suggested the probability of a payout was just 0.2 per cent. On April 15, when the recorded temperature jumped in a few minutes from 18C to 22C before falling back, another wallet made more than $21,000 on a stake of just $119 by betting that the temperature that day would exceed 18C, at a time when the price of the contract suggested a probability of about 0.5 per cent. On both days, trading volume on Polymarket's "Highest temperature in Paris" market exceeded $500,000 -- more than double the typical daily volume for this market. Hunting for unusually confident or well-timed bets has become a flashpoint for prediction market traders on social media, although some warn that lucky or smart bets can be confused with market manipulation. While users can track traders' individual wallets and wagers on Polymarket, the crypto-based platform does not require most accounts on its international site to provide identification documents. This means that the company itself may not know who is behind a given wager. "In light of physical findings on one of our instruments and the analysis of sensor data, Météo-France has indeed been led to file a complaint for interference with the operation of an automated data processing system with the Air Transport Gendarmerie Brigade in Roissy," Météo-France said, declining to comment further. The complaint was first reported by broadcaster BFMTV. Sébastien Brana, who runs online weather forum Infoclimat, whose members track Météo-France data almost in real time, said members had not immediately suspected wrongdoing when the first anomalies occurred on April 6. "We thought it was an issue with the sensors . . . You can have sudden temperature changes at sundown when there is a storm as well. But the weather situation didn't explain what was happening," Brana said. "It became clear there was something else going on when it happened again on April 15." Météo-France has shared readings from its sensors since 2023, Brana said. Prediction markets, which allow customers to bet on binary outcomes of future events, have surged in popularity in recent years. However, the ability of users to make bets on highly specific real-world outcomes has triggered concerns that they are vulnerable to manipulation. The FT reported last month that the US attack on Iran was preceded by a number of unusually large and well-timed bets, and found a similar pattern of bets in a market related to the US government's capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January. Israel in February brought prosecutions against two reservists suspected of using classified information to bet on the country's military operations. Regulations around the use of prediction platforms differ between countries. In the UK, for example, the Gambling Commission considers Polymarket and its rival Kalshi, the biggest regulated platform in the US, to be unlicensed betting operators. Polymarket, Paris police and airport police did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Polymarket and Kalshi Are Both Set to Launch Perp Trading
Polymarket announced early access for perpetual futures trading, while The Information reported that Kalshi is planning a similar product launch. The two largest prediction market platforms by trading volume are both moving into perpetual futures trading, per reports arriving within hours of each other on Tuesday, April 21. Polymarket's move is official. The on-chain prediction marketplace posted on X Tuesday evening: "Perps are coming to Polymarket." The platform is accepting early access sign-ups for the product, which will allow traders to take leveraged long or short positions on assets including BTC, stocks, and gold without a fixed expiration date. Separately, The Information reported on Tuesday morning that Kalshi plans to launch crypto trading, beginning with perpetual futures, citing people familiar with the matter. According to the report, Kalshi will start with crypto perps and may expand to perps tied to other asset classes over time. Perp trading has exploded in popularity over the past year, notably on decentralized platforms, mostly led by Hyperliquid. But centralized platforms, led by Binance, still dominate in terms of volumes and open interest, per CoinGecko data. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig said last month that the agency plans to allow regulated perpetual futures in the United States, to attract trading volume back from offshore platforms. The Information's report notes that Kalshi recently secured a CFTC margin trading license, positioning it to offer the product. The move would put both Polymarket and Kalshi in more direct competition with both centralized and on-chain exchange platforms, several of which, like Coinbase, have begun adding prediction markets. Combined monthly trading volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket last month reached over $23 billion, an all-time high. Since the start of this year, both platforms have consistently seen near or over $2 billion in trades each week, per Token Terminal data. The launches come amid rapid regulatory change for the sector. The CFTC launched a sweeping review of prediction markets in March, after Chair Selig clarified that the agency thinks such platforms should be regulated federally, not by each state. At the same time, both platforms continue to face state-level legal pressure, as gambling is a state-regulated activity in the U.S. and multiple states have alleged that the platforms need gambling regulator licenses to operate in the state.
Phemex Launched Prediction Markets in Partnership with Polymarket | ForkLog
On April 23, crypto exchange Phemex launched prediction markets built on Polymarket infrastructure -- one of the largest platforms in the segment. Users can trade outcomes of real-world events spanning macroeconomics, geopolitics, technology, sports, and culture directly from their exchange account, according to a press release. The integration sits inside the standard exchange environment: no separate wallet is required, and trades execute through a regular account in USDT and USDC. The format feels native to existing exchange users. "We lean on Polymarket's established liquidity: this gives traders deeper markets, tighter spreads, and a steady flow of new events without fragmented pools," Phemex stated. Alongside the launch, Phemex is running a four-week campaign with a prize pool, bonuses and first-trade rebate. Traders will compete in weekly leaderboards ranked by PnL and ROI, with rankings resetting each week. The first 500 users will receive opening trade protection: if the initial position closes at a loss, the exchange will compensate up to $10 USDT. Prediction markets let traders take positions on real-world event outcomes at market-determined prices, which update continuously as new information emerges. The segment is growing rapidly. Since the beginning of 2026, trading volumes across sector leaders Kalshi and Polymarket have already surpassed $60 billion. Bernstein analysts expect the figure to reach $240 billion by December, and $1 trillion by 2030. Sports remains the dominant category, accounting for 61% of all bets. Bernstein sees the sector's long-term potential in contracts tied to crypto assets, macroeconomic indicators, and politics. As of April 21, Kalshi holds 45.1% of the market, while Polymarket accounts for 38.7%. On February 2, US-based exchange Coinbase launched a prediction platform in partnership with Kalshi. In March, Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation -- double its December round.
France Probes Weather Data Tampering After Surge in Polymarket Bets
(Bloomberg) -- France's forecasting office flagged suspected tampering with weather sensors at the country's largest airport and referred the case to police, after detecting unusual readings alongside heavy betting on a popular prediction market. Most Read from Bloomberg Automated temperature readings taken at Meteo France's weather station at Charles de Gaulle International Airport spiked 4C and 5C unexpectedly in the evenings of April 6 and April 15, respectively, reaching the highest temperature recorded at the site on those days, data from the installation show. Readings from the site are important for the safe operation of the airport. They are also used to settle contracts for daily high temperatures on Polymarket, according to information on the website where traders place bets on real-world outcomes. Weather betting has boomed on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi Inc., where individual traders and weather experts have flocked to put money behind their predictions for temperatures, or the amount of rain or snowfall in particular areas on specific dates. Boosters say prediction markets create economic and social value by providing better information about what will happen in the world. Detractors call them glorified gambling vulnerable to manipulation, insider trading and other shenanigans. Concerns have emerged for other contracts on prediction markets, including claims from an Israeli journalist that Polymarket users pressured him to change a story about missile strikes outside Jerusalem. Prediction market traders and independent meteorologists in a French weather discussion forum flagged the data irregularities and questioned the results of the contracts, which attracted roughly $1.4 million in combined bets, according to Polymarket data. Total betting for each was more than double the typical volume for other daily Paris temperature contracts in April. A spokesperson for Meteo France, Laurent Becler, said technicians examined sensor data and inspected the weather station, and the forecasting office subsequently filed a complaint for tampering with the operation of an automated data processing system to airport police. Becler declined to answer additional questions about the possible tampering and data irregularities. Airport police declined to answer questions about the complaint and referred questions to court officials, who declined to answer a request for more information. Charles de Gaulle International Airport declined to comment.
Polymarket traders win $37K after Paris weather data glitch, raising suspicion1h
Ruben Hallali, a meteorologist, told French media outlet BFMTV the temperature glitch was unlikely to be a natural event. Two Polymarket accounts have attracted suspicion after making $37,000 betting correctly on two unusual temperature readings of a weather station located in a major airport in France. The two weather-focused prediction markets focused on the highest temperature in Paris on April 6 and 15, using the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius, according to Polymarket. French media outlet BFMTV reported on Monday that the temperature suddenly climbed to over 21 degrees Celsius on April 6, before dropping again immediately. The market resolved with the winner taking over $16,000. Meanwhile, blockchain analytics tool Bubblemaps reported a similar glitch for the April 15 market. The weather station showed 18 degrees Celsius most of the day, then suddenly spiked to 22 degrees Celsius before dropping back. Some have questioned whether foul play was involved. Prediction markets are already facing growing scrutiny over insider trading and possible violations of gambling laws. "That spike didn't show on nearby stations," Bubblemaps analysts said, adding that "Just before the spike, one trader started buying NO shares on "18°C," before exiting with over $21, 000. Ruben Hallali, a meteorologist, told BFMTV the temperature glitch was unlikely to be a natural event. Related: Charles Schwab, Citadel Securities are eying prediction markets "Such temperature variations seem very unlikely, especially on these two dates, and over such a short period. We can imagine that an individual with a good understanding of how the sensors work intervened, resulting in temperatures rising by two degrees at the right time, to validate a bet," he added. Météo France, the official government weather agency of France, has reportedly made a complaint with the police unit, the Roissy Air Transport Gendarmerie Brigade, for alleged tampering with the operation of its automated data processing systems.
