News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
How to Spot a Stock Market Bubble 101: Raymond James Just Placed an $800 Price Target on SpaceX, Valuing Elon Musk's Company at $10.5 Trillion
One month ago, on June 12, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space economy conglomerate, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX 4.75%), rewrote history with its initial public offering (IPO). The $85.7 billion raised, including the underwriters' overallotment, nearly tripled the previous IPO record holder, Saudi Aramco. But in kicking off IPO mania -- large language model developers Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to follow in SpaceX's footsteps -- SpaceX may also be fueling the final stages of an AI bubble that history suggests is waiting to pop. Rarely are stock market bubble warning signs as glaring as Raymond James Financial's price target assigned to SpaceX. Wall Street's high-water price target foresees SpaceX reaching $800 in 2031 Given that 21 underwriters helped bring SpaceX public and received shares for doing so, it should come as no surprise that Wall Street analysts have, as a whole, presented an overwhelmingly positive outlook for the company. But Raymond James Financial analyst Brian Gesuale is a true outlier. His $800 price target by 2031 implies 451% upside, based on where SpaceX's shares ended on July 10, and assumes a valuation of roughly $10.5 trillion. For context, this would be more than double Nvidia's current market cap. Gesuale foresees SpaceX's full-year sales scaling from an estimated $38.5 billion in 2026 to approximately $837 billion by 2031. More importantly, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are projected to catapult from $17.7 billion in 2026 to $696 billion by 2031. While there's no question that AI and the space economy are two of the hottest addressable opportunities on Wall Street, several headwinds suggest Gesuale's pie-in-the-sky price target is pure fiction and the sign of an end-stage bubble that's about to burst. SpaceX spotlights everything wrong with Wall Street Although the stock market is a long-term wealth-creating machine, it's prone to occasional bubble-bursting events. SpaceX's current $1.91 trillion valuation and Raymond James' $800 price target for the company spotlight everything that's wrong with Wall Street over the short term. For starters, SpaceX hasn't demonstrated that its operating model is sustainable. While satellite-based broadband services provider Starlink is profitable, AI start-up xAI -- the segment responsible for the lion's share of SpaceX's $28.5 trillion addressable market -- is burning cash as Musk's company chases AI compute capacity. Elon Musk also has a terrible track record of fulfilling lofty promises and innovative expectations. As CEO of Tesla, Musk proclaimed that 1 million robotaxis would be on public roads by the end of 2020, which never happened. He's also assured investors that Level 5 full self-driving is "one year away" annually for more than a decade. Musk continually overpromises and underdelivers. SpaceX is likely to be haunted by historical precedent, as well. No company at the forefront of a game-changing technology has sustained a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio above 30 for any extended period. SpaceX is trading at roughly 50 times Gesuale's forecast sales for this year. Lastly, every game-changing technology for more than three decades has navigated an early stage bubble-bursting event. These bubbles have formed because investors constantly overestimate the optimization timeline of innovations. It'll likely be years before SpaceX's solutions are optimized, making Raymond James' high-water price target highly unlikely.
How Low Can SpaceX Stock Go?
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) went public on June 12. Its stock promptly soared to a peak of $225, giving the company a whopping $2.9 trillion market capitalization, but it has since plummeted by 35% to close at $145 on Friday, July 10. SpaceX has a unique business that spans space transportation, satellite internet connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, and its revenue is forecast to grow rapidly over the next couple of years. However, its stock remains extremely expensive even after its recent decline, which could open the door to more losses for investors. How low can SpaceX stock go? SpaceX has a significant opportunity ahead Before we dive into SpaceX's hefty valuation and the math behind a potential decline in its stock, let's examine the company's business, which does have significant growth potential. It's divided into three core segments: SpaceX already accounts for over 80% of the world's mass to orbit, so it's launching more commercial payloads than any other company or organization on the planet. Its market share will only grow once its Starship rocket enters regular service, because its 100-ton payload capacity is four times that of the Falcon 9 rocket, which completes most trips today. The connectivity business is also set to receive a massive boost, as SpaceX will start launching its V3 satellites later this year, which offer a whopping 10 times the bandwidth of the current V2 satellites. Moreover, Starship will launch 60 V3 satellites into orbit per trip, whereas Falcon 9 is only capable of sending 27 at a time. Moving on to the AI segment, most of its revenue comes from Grok subscriptions and renting data center capacity to other companies. When SpaceX bought xAI, it took ownership of data centers like Colossus and Colossus II, which are fitted with hundreds of thousands of specialized AI chips from suppliers like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices. SpaceX eventually wants to send AI computing clusters into space, where they will run on solar power and won't need complex cooling systems. This infrastructure would send data back to Earth via Starlink satellites, giving SpaceX a huge advantage over any potential competitors entering this industry. Although Elon Musk founded SpaceX to focus on space exploration and transportation, the company values its opportunity in this segment at just $370 billion. That pales in comparison to the potential $1.6 trillion addressable market in the connectivity business, and the staggering $26.5 trillion opportunity in the AI infrastructure business. SpaceX stock is trading at a sky-high premium to the broader market SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in total revenue during 2025, which was up 33% from the prior year. This was the composition: Data source: SpaceX. While connectivity was the largest and fastest-growing segment last year, that looks set to change. SpaceX recently agreed to rent up to $1.25 billion in AI computing capacity per month to Anthropic, in addition to another $920 million per month to Alphabet, and $150 million per month to Reflection AI. These deals could amount to tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue over the next few years. In fact, Wall Street's average forecast (provided by Yahoo! Finance) suggests SpaceX could more than double its revenue to $38.8 billion in 2026 and then generate $72.4 billion in revenue in 2027. That brings me to its valuation. Based on SpaceX's trailing 12-month revenue and its $1.91 trillion market capitalization, its stock is trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 98.9, making it 15 times as expensive as the Nasdaq-100 index, which has a P/S ratio of just 6.4. In other words, SpaceX is wildly overvalued relative to its big-tech peers. Even if we value SpaceX stock using Wall Street's 2027 revenue forecast, its forward P/S ratio is still a hefty 26.3. I'm not predicting this will happen, but the stock would have to plummet by 76% over the next 18 months just to trade in line with the current P/S ratio of the Nasdaq-100 index. In my opinion, the math suggests SpaceX stock will have a tough time generating upside for the foreseeable future, and I won't be surprised to see a decline of 50% (or more), particularly if the company fails to meet Wall Street's revenue expectations.
Prediction: SpaceX Shares Can Reach $220 by End of 2026
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) has become one of the market's most closely watched stocks after its rapid entry into the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7. Shares are trading close to $149 (as of July 10), still above its $135 IPO price, but nearly 34% below its post-IPO high of $225.60. This share price pullback has not ended investor interest in SpaceX, but it has changed the debate. Investors are now weighing the company's artificial intelligence (AI) compute opportunity, Starlink satellite internet network's room to expand in satellite communications, and progress on the next-generation reusable rocket system, Starship, as they assess where the stock could trade by the end of 2026. SpaceX has growth drivers for its revenue SpaceX is already demonstrating impressive financial momentum. Revenue rose 33% year over year to $18.7 billion in 2025. But the company still reported a net loss of $4.9 billion after merging with money-losing xAI. Starlink remains the key growth engine, supported by roughly 10.3 million users and 9,600 satellites. But AI infrastructure is also becoming the next major catalyst. Alphabet has agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs and related computing resources. Anthropic has also signed a major compute-access deal with SpaceX, securing use of SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center. Reuters reported that SpaceX's two deals are worth about $26 billion annually if fully realized. Although not all the AI revenue from these deals is expected to materialize in 2026, it still gives investors a reason to value SpaceX based on future revenue potential rather than solely on 2025 sales. SpaceX's valuation will fall, but remain expensive At the end of 2026, investors will likely be looking toward SpaceX's expected 2027 revenue, since the stock's valuation depends on how quickly Starlink, AI compute, and Starship can expand the company's sales base. SpaceX's market capitalization is close to $2 trillion. Analysts' 2026 revenue estimates range from $34.3 billion on the low end to $43.2 billion on the high end, with a base case estimate of about $38.9 billion. Hence, SpaceX is already trading at roughly 51.4 times base case 2026 sales. By the end of 2026, that multiple will most likely compress, as post-IPO excitement usually cools and investors demand evidence of execution. But it also does not need to collapse if SpaceX continues to show progress in Starlink, AI infrastructure, and Starship. A reasonable base-case assumption is that SpaceX's sales multiple compresses by about 20% to 25% from today's 51.4x 2026 sales multiple. That gives a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple range of roughly 38.5 to 41 times expected 2027 sales. Analysts expect SpaceX's 2027 revenue to range from $54.8 billion to $85 billion, with an average estimate of $72.4 billion. Applying a forward sales multiple of 38.5 to 41 times to the 2027 base case revenue estimate yields an implied market capitalization of about $2.79 trillion to $2.97 trillion. Using roughly 13.1 billion shares outstanding, that points to a share price in the range of $213 to $227 at the end of 2026. Hence, $220 is a reasonable base case estimate. It assumes that while SpaceX's valuation multiple compresses, revenue growth offsets the pressure enough to lift the share price.
Here's Who Owns the Most SpaceX Stock
The question of who owns the most stock means more when you're asking about Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%) than when you're asking about a typical public company. The June 2026 IPO floated a thin slice of the business -- nearly 4.3% of the equity -- which means the people and firms who held shares before the debut own the rest. The ownership structure that developed across two private decades when SpaceX was a private company is the one that governs it now that it's public, and it puts a small number of names in charge of a $2 trillion enterprise. Elon Musk owns the most SpaceX stock There is no contest at the top. Elon Musk holds close to 42% of the equity, a stake worth more than $1 trillion at the IPO valuation. Musk's block sits under a lockup that lasts until June 2027, with no early release provision, so the largest holder is a seller of nothing for the first year on the market. The outside investors who own the most SpaceX stock Behind Musk, the biggest holder is a name many investors miss. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (GOOGL +1.87%), the parent of Google, owns close to 7% of SpaceX, a position that can be traced to a $1 billion investment it made alongside Fidelity in January 2015 (Alphabet invested $900 million, with Fidelity contributing the remaining $100 million). That single check turned Google into the largest outside shareholder in the company, a bet on rockets from a search and advertising business. The early venture backers hold the most striking returns rather than the largest slices. Founders Fund, a firm co-founded by Peter Thiel, wrote a $20 million check in SpaceX's 2008 Series C round, and that stake is now worth $50 billion. Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and Valor Equity Partners each hold positions of around 2% or below. The February 2026 merger with xAI added new faces to the list, including Nvidia and the Qatar Investment Authority, a sovereign wealth fund. The employees and the public shareholders One large block hides in plain sight. SpaceX pays its workforce with restricted stock units and options, so employees hold a collective stake that the company does not break out in its filings. That group has waited years for the tender offers, and the staggered lockup schedule that lets them sell, and the size of their holdings is one of the least visible parts of the ownership story. You don't have much power if you buy SpaceX Beyond them sit everyone who bought at the IPO or after. Public shareholders own the small float, and more shares will reach the market as insider lockups expire throughout late 2026. The ownership map delivers one clear message: Buying SpaceX stock makes you an owner of the economics, but it doesn't give you a voice in the company's direction. SpaceX uses a dual-class structure: Musk's Class B shares carry 10 votes each, giving him 82.4% of the voting power. A public shareholder who buys Class A stock gains economic exposure to the rocket and satellite business without a real say in how it is run. Put plainly, the float exists so the public can fund the vision while the people who already own it decide what that vision costs and who profits from it. You get a ticker, a price that moves, and the privilege of watching Musk run a $2 trillion company on your money. If the board ever faces a hard call between what serves Class A holders and what serves the man holding 82.4% of the votes, the math has been settled since before you showed up. You are along for the ride, not steering it, and the ride is being priced at a valuation that assumes almost everything goes right. Whether that's a risk you want to take is up to you.
A More Than 80% Chance of a Tesla and SpaceX Merger? It Could Be a Game Changer.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has put the likelihood of a merger between Tesla (TSLA 7.35%) and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%) at more than 80% over the next year, as the potential deal fits Elon Musk's broader artificial intelligence (AI) and data strategy. Tesla invested $2 billion in SpaceX earlier in 2026, and that investment has given Tesla nearly 19 million SpaceX shares, representing less than 1% of SpaceX's outstanding shares. Now, the bigger question for Tesla investors is whether a full merger would create a stronger AI, energy, connectivity, and robotics platform or dilute Tesla shareholder value by adding SpaceX's losses, heavy spending needs, and governance risks. Increasing credibility of the merger case SpaceX's June 2026 IPO has given the company a public stock price for the first time, which makes a possible stock-based merger of the two Elon Musk companies easier to value and structure. SpaceX would bring a growth engine that Tesla does not have. In 2025, SpaceX revenue rose to $18.7 billion, with the Starlink-powered connectivity unit accounting for about $11.4 billion of sales. Starlink's satellite internet user base had reached nearly 10.3 million by the end of the first quarter of 2026. If Tesla and SpaceX merge, Starlink would add a recurring-revenue business tied to satellites, consumer connectivity, and future mobile services. Tesla is already spending heavily on AI, robotics, custom chips, and manufacturing capacity. The company raised its 2026 capital spending plan to more than $25 billion, up from its earlier $20 billion forecast. Tesla also expects negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026, despite generating $1.44 billion in free cash flow in the first quarter. A merger with SpaceX could position Tesla as a broader platform company and create a more vertically integrated platform spanning AI, energy, mobility, and connectivity. Tesla would bring vehicles, robotaxis, Optimus robots, energy storage, and software-led services that generate customer demand. SpaceX would bring satellites, launch capacity, mobile connectivity, AI infrastructure, and xAI-related software needed to connect, power, and scale that platform. Potential synergies Reuters reported that SpaceX and xAI bought about $650 million in goods and services from Tesla in 2025, including $506 million in Tesla Megapack batteries and $131 million in Cybertrucks. With Tesla already supplying energy storage and vehicles to other Musk-controlled businesses, a merger could build on existing business relationships rather than relying solely on promised future synergies. Tesla's energy storage business could generate an estimated $18.3 billion of revenue in 2026, with gross profit of about $5.3 billion and gross margin near 29%. Since SpaceX and its xAI need large-scale power storage for AI and communications infrastructure, Tesla's Megapack business could become a more strategic internal supplier. Reuters has also reported that SpaceX, xAI -- which it acquired -- and Tesla plan to build two advanced chip factories at the Terafab facility in Austin, Texas, including one for Tesla vehicles and Optimus robots and another for future AI data centers in space. Tesla and SpaceX are also working on Macrohard , an early-stage AI platform designed to automate digital workflows and improve how people work with computers. These projects make the case for a merger more concrete by showing that Tesla and SpaceX may already be developing shared technology, not just operating under the same CEO. The Federal Communications Commission has approved 7,500 additional Gen2 Starlink satellites, bringing SpaceX's permitted Gen2 capacity to 15,000 satellites. SpaceX is also pushing deeper into direct-to-cell and U.S. mobile services. Over time, that could help Tesla's vehicles, robotaxis, charging sites, and energy assets stay connected. However, this is more of a future opportunity than something likely to add meaningful revenue right away. SpaceX's next-generation Starship reusable rocket system is designed to carry more than 100 metric tons to orbit. If it works reliably, SpaceX could deploy larger satellite networks and future space-based infrastructure at lower cost, strengthening a combined company's infrastructure story. But investors should also treat this as a major execution risk, not a guaranteed advantage. Tesla investors face risks The biggest challenge for a merger deal would be SpaceX's rich valuation. As I write this, the company trades at 77 times trailing-12-month sales, despite posting a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025. The company's AI business also had a $6.4 billion operating loss in 2025 and accounted for $12.7 billion of the company's capital expenditures that year. A merger could move those losses, capital needs, and AI-infrastructure risks closer to Tesla shareholders. Tesla also has major execution risks of its own. Reuters found that its robotaxi service in Texas still faced long wait times, limited availability, navigation problems, and safety challenges in some vehicles. If Tesla is still proving vehicle autonomy and SpaceX is still proving AI infrastructure, a merger would combine two long-term bets rather than clearly reducing risk. CEO Elon Musk reportedly controlled 42.5% of SpaceX's equity and 83.8% of its voting power before the IPO. After the offering, Musk was expected to retain about 82.4% of SpaceX's voting power. He also owns around 19.9% stake in Tesla's common stock. Musk's level of influence could make a Tesla-SpaceX deal easier to pursue, but it also makes fairness more important. Tesla shareholders would need confidence that the deal price properly reflects SpaceX's losses, Tesla's own growth potential, and the companies' existing business ties. So, the real question for shareholders is whether the deal would create more value than Tesla and SpaceX could create separately. Until investors see terms, valuation, board process, and a clearer path from synergy to cash flow, a potential merger should be treated as a serious possibility rather than a proven value creator.
