News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
How Low Can SpaceX Stock Go?
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) went public on June 12. Its stock promptly soared to a peak of $225, giving the company a whopping $2.9 trillion market capitalization, but it has since plummeted by 35% to close at $145 on Friday, July 10. SpaceX has a unique business that spans space transportation, satellite internet connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, and its revenue is forecast to grow rapidly over the next couple of years. However, its stock remains extremely expensive even after its recent decline, which could open the door to more losses for investors. How low can SpaceX stock go? SpaceX has a significant opportunity ahead Before we dive into SpaceX's hefty valuation and the math behind a potential decline in its stock, let's examine the company's business, which does have significant growth potential. It's divided into three core segments: SpaceX already accounts for over 80% of the world's mass to orbit, so it's launching more commercial payloads than any other company or organization on the planet. Its market share will only grow once its Starship rocket enters regular service, because its 100-ton payload capacity is four times that of the Falcon 9 rocket, which completes most trips today. The connectivity business is also set to receive a massive boost, as SpaceX will start launching its V3 satellites later this year, which offer a whopping 10 times the bandwidth of the current V2 satellites. Moreover, Starship will launch 60 V3 satellites into orbit per trip, whereas Falcon 9 is only capable of sending 27 at a time. Moving on to the AI segment, most of its revenue comes from Grok subscriptions and renting data center capacity to other companies. When SpaceX bought xAI, it took ownership of data centers like Colossus and Colossus II, which are fitted with hundreds of thousands of specialized AI chips from suppliers like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices. SpaceX eventually wants to send AI computing clusters into space, where they will run on solar power and won't need complex cooling systems. This infrastructure would send data back to Earth via Starlink satellites, giving SpaceX a huge advantage over any potential competitors entering this industry. Although Elon Musk founded SpaceX to focus on space exploration and transportation, the company values its opportunity in this segment at just $370 billion. That pales in comparison to the potential $1.6 trillion addressable market in the connectivity business, and the staggering $26.5 trillion opportunity in the AI infrastructure business. SpaceX stock is trading at a sky-high premium to the broader market SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in total revenue during 2025, which was up 33% from the prior year. This was the composition: Data source: SpaceX. While connectivity was the largest and fastest-growing segment last year, that looks set to change. SpaceX recently agreed to rent up to $1.25 billion in AI computing capacity per month to Anthropic, in addition to another $920 million per month to Alphabet, and $150 million per month to Reflection AI. These deals could amount to tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue over the next few years. In fact, Wall Street's average forecast (provided by Yahoo! Finance) suggests SpaceX could more than double its revenue to $38.8 billion in 2026 and then generate $72.4 billion in revenue in 2027. That brings me to its valuation. Based on SpaceX's trailing 12-month revenue and its $1.91 trillion market capitalization, its stock is trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 98.9, making it 15 times as expensive as the Nasdaq-100 index, which has a P/S ratio of just 6.4. In other words, SpaceX is wildly overvalued relative to its big-tech peers. Even if we value SpaceX stock using Wall Street's 2027 revenue forecast, its forward P/S ratio is still a hefty 26.3. I'm not predicting this will happen, but the stock would have to plummet by 76% over the next 18 months just to trade in line with the current P/S ratio of the Nasdaq-100 index. In my opinion, the math suggests SpaceX stock will have a tough time generating upside for the foreseeable future, and I won't be surprised to see a decline of 50% (or more), particularly if the company fails to meet Wall Street's revenue expectations.
History Says It's Time to Buy SpaceX Stock Before It's Too Late
After an incredible post-IPO performance, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) stock has gradually returned to earth. SpaceX officially priced its June 12 IPO at $135 per share and opened at $150 per share. Shares reached their all-time high of $225.64 three days later. After a steep correction, the stock is now hovering around $145. The space stock is now priced just 7% above its original IPO price, and under the price at which it began trading. Newly published historical data, however, suggest there is more upside to come. History says SpaceX stock is a buy at $145 per share Jay Ritter of the Warrington College of Business at the University of Florida has been tracking the performance of IPO stocks for years. On July 7, Ritter released a new report with fully updated statistics. Diving into the data paints an optimistic picture for SpaceX stock today. From 1980 to 2024, Ritter documented 9,253 IPOs. Over that time, the average IPO stock returned 19.1% over a three-year period. The data is already looking good for SpaceX stock. While history doesn't suggest huge returns for the stock over the next three years, the returns are nonetheless expected to be positive. Breaking down the data even further improves SpaceX's prospects. When including only IPO stocks with trailing annual sales of at least $500 million -- a refinement that narrows the universe down to just 1,500 stocks -- the average three-year return improves to 31.8%. When including only IPO stocks with trailing sales of at least $1 billion, the prospects improve even further. These stocks -- which total 866 in all -- average 32.4% returns over their first three years of trading. To be clear, there's no telling exactly where SpaceX stock will head from here. Even if shares have plenty of upside at today's prices relative to historical IPO performances, there is a wide range of outcomes for any one stock. And there are plenty of reasons to believe SpaceX stock is overvalued, even following the correction. Before the June 12 IPO, analysts at the research firm Morningstar valued SpaceX at $63, representing a 53% discount to its IPO price. "Only the most optimistic Moonshot scenario, which requires a rapidly reusable Starship and commercially competitive orbital data centers, approaches the IPO price. The IPO price implies the Moonshot scenario is highly likely, but we think the outlook is very uncertain." I mostly agree with Morningstar's caution. But SpaceX is a unique business with difficult-to-quantify opportunities ahead. Ark Invest, for example, sees SpaceX generating $300 billion in annual revenue by 2030 through the monetization of orbital data centers. If that happens, SpaceX could easily be valued well above $2 trillion. At the end of the day, investors must acquaint themselves with SpaceX's business prospects and current valuation, and form their own opinion of the company's risk-and-reward dynamic.
This Vanguard ETF Would Have Quadrupled Your Money Over the Last Decade. History Says Now Is a Smart Time to Invest. (It's Likely to Outperform SpaceX, Too.)
We're all looking for solid investments for our portfolios, right? It's easy to focus on big-name high-flying stocks, such as Nvidia or Micron Technology. But there's also some risk there, as many highfliers end up overvalued and poised to fall extra-hard in a market pullback. (And a market pullback is far from unlikely these days.) So permit me to suggest a terrific investment that you might not have taken seriously enough: a simple, low-fee S&P 500 index fund. A splendid example is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO +0.46%). It's an exchange-traded fund (ETF) -- a fund that trades like a stock. Meet the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Like any good S&P 500 index fund, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF features low fees. While some actively managed mutual funds might charge you 1% or more of your assets each year, this fund charges 0.03% -- or just $3 annually for every $10,000 you have invested in it. It tracks the S&P 500, of course -- an index of roughly 500 of the biggest stocks in America. Together, they make up about 80% of the value of the entire U.S. stock market, which is why the S&P 500 is often used as a proxy for the total U.S. stock market. Together, the index's recent top 10 components make up about 38% of the index's value by weight. Here they are as of July 9: Data source: Slickcharts.com, as of July 9, 2026. Like many indexes, the S&P 500 is market-cap-weighted, with bigger companies wielding more influence than smaller ones. The fund has a solid record. Check out its average annual return over the last three, five, and 10 years (as reported by Morningstar on July 9): * Last three years: 21.26% * Last five years: 13.11% * Last 10 years: 15.36% Over the last decade, these compounded annual returns would have quadrupled your money. Why invest in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF? Here are several reasons to invest: * It's a good time to do so (there's rarely a bad time, if you're a long-term investor). * It makes investing easy, plopping you into roughly 80% of the U.S. stock market with one "buy" order. * It offers diversification -- when one company or industry falls, the others can offset that to some degree. For greater diversification, check out the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP +0.38%), which weights each of the 500 companies in the index equally. * It's likely to outperform many growth stocks, especially overvalued ones -- including, arguably, Space Exploration Technologies, also known as SpaceX. Consider, for example, that the S&P 500's price-to-sales ratio was recently 3.7, while SpaceX's was 74.7. The S&P 500 has a solid track record, averaging annual gains of close to 10% over many decades, but many growth stocks are far less proven. * The index is designed to perform well, as lagging components are regularly removed to make way for up-and-coming companies. Take a closer look at this ETF to see if it's a good fit for your needs.
J.P. Morgan Called a Potential Elon Musk SpaceX-Tesla Merger "Strategically Coherent"
Now that Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) trades publicly, Wall Street has started hunting for the next best thing: stocks that can ride its coattails. The most eye-catching call came from J.P. Morgan, whose analysts described a possible combination of SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA +0.22%) as "strategically coherent on paper." That single phrase has revived a long-running fantasy among investors, and it's worth understanding what the analyst company actually means before treating any of these names as a back door into SpaceX. Why J.P. Morgan sees logic in a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up J.P. Morgan's argument is that Musk's companies already share engineering talent, an artificial intelligence ambition, and a common leader, so uniting them could let him run one integrated vision across cars, robots, energy, and space. The analysts also noted that SpaceX's blockbuster public debut gives Musk valuable stock to make a deal, and that his growing voting control at Tesla makes him better positioned to push one through. J.P. Morgan was careful, though, and so am I. It flagged real obstacles: securing regulatory approvals across many countries, especially China, where Tesla builds cars; the awkward gap between Musk's near-total control of SpaceX and his smaller stake in Tesla; and the likelihood that any deal would look like SpaceX swallowing Tesla rather than a merger of equals. "Coherent on paper" is a long way from "likely to happen." The other SpaceX-by-association plays Tesla isn't the only name catching the halo. Deutsche Bank started coverage of EchoStar (ECHO 2.00%) with a buy rating, framing it as a cheaper way to own SpaceX. EchoStar holds roughly $11 billion of SpaceX shares it received for handing over wireless spectrum, so the bank argues you're effectively buying SpaceX at a discount and getting EchoStar's other assets thrown in. The catch is serious: EchoStar's pay-TV subsidiary recently filed for bankruptcy, and the stock has tumbled. Then there's Charter Communications (CHTR 2.69%), which, according to Bloomberg, has held talks with SpaceX about a consumer mobile phone service that would route some traffic through Charter's network. It's a genuine strategic fit, but it's only talk for now. Here's my honest read. Buying a stock because it's linked to a hot company is a strategy built on hope, not fundamentals, and all three of these names are down this year for reasons of their own. A merger that's merely "coherent on paper," a spectrum stake wrapped around a bankruptcy, and a rumored partnership are not the same as durable businesses. If you like Tesla, EchoStar, or Charter, buy them for what they do today, and treat any SpaceX connection as a bonus rather than the thesis.
Prediction: SpaceX Shares Can Reach $220 by End of 2026
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) has become one of the market's most closely watched stocks after its rapid entry into the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7. Shares are trading close to $149 (as of July 10), still above its $135 IPO price, but nearly 34% below its post-IPO high of $225.60. This share price pullback has not ended investor interest in SpaceX, but it has changed the debate. Investors are now weighing the company's artificial intelligence (AI) compute opportunity, Starlink satellite internet network's room to expand in satellite communications, and progress on the next-generation reusable rocket system, Starship, as they assess where the stock could trade by the end of 2026. SpaceX has growth drivers for its revenue SpaceX is already demonstrating impressive financial momentum. Revenue rose 33% year over year to $18.7 billion in 2025. But the company still reported a net loss of $4.9 billion after merging with money-losing xAI. Starlink remains the key growth engine, supported by roughly 10.3 million users and 9,600 satellites. But AI infrastructure is also becoming the next major catalyst. Alphabet has agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs and related computing resources. Anthropic has also signed a major compute-access deal with SpaceX, securing use of SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center. Reuters reported that SpaceX's two deals are worth about $26 billion annually if fully realized. Although not all the AI revenue from these deals is expected to materialize in 2026, it still gives investors a reason to value SpaceX based on future revenue potential rather than solely on 2025 sales. SpaceX's valuation will fall, but remain expensive At the end of 2026, investors will likely be looking toward SpaceX's expected 2027 revenue, since the stock's valuation depends on how quickly Starlink, AI compute, and Starship can expand the company's sales base. SpaceX's market capitalization is close to $2 trillion. Analysts' 2026 revenue estimates range from $34.3 billion on the low end to $43.2 billion on the high end, with a base case estimate of about $38.9 billion. Hence, SpaceX is already trading at roughly 51.4 times base case 2026 sales. By the end of 2026, that multiple will most likely compress, as post-IPO excitement usually cools and investors demand evidence of execution. But it also does not need to collapse if SpaceX continues to show progress in Starlink, AI infrastructure, and Starship. A reasonable base-case assumption is that SpaceX's sales multiple compresses by about 20% to 25% from today's 51.4x 2026 sales multiple. That gives a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple range of roughly 38.5 to 41 times expected 2027 sales. Analysts expect SpaceX's 2027 revenue to range from $54.8 billion to $85 billion, with an average estimate of $72.4 billion. Applying a forward sales multiple of 38.5 to 41 times to the 2027 base case revenue estimate yields an implied market capitalization of about $2.79 trillion to $2.97 trillion. Using roughly 13.1 billion shares outstanding, that points to a share price in the range of $213 to $227 at the end of 2026. Hence, $220 is a reasonable base case estimate. It assumes that while SpaceX's valuation multiple compresses, revenue growth offsets the pressure enough to lift the share price.
Elon Musk's SpaceX Just Joined the Nasdaq-100. Now What?
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) entered the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7, and investors will hope it provides additional support for an already successful initial public offering (IPO). But what does the index inclusion really mean, and what can SpaceX investors expect in the future? Where next for SpaceX? The Nasdaq-100 index inclusion does matter. It triggers forced passive buying of the stock by funds (including exchange-traded funds, or ETFs) that track the Nasdaq-100 index. In addition, many actively managed funds may invest only in stocks listed in the Nasdaq-100 index, and others may require holdings in SpaceX stock to meet their fund's weighting requirements. All of this is likely to provide some support for the share price. While this will occur, investors also need to be mindful of periodic bouts of selling as SpaceX's lock-up expiry dates approach. Digging into the company's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings makes it clear that the potential for periodic supply hitting the market is real. For reference, around 639 million shares were sold at IPO, and SpaceX has 13.17 billion shares outstanding. Data source: Space Exploration Technologies SEC filings. As you can see, significantly more shares could come to market than were sold at IPO, and that could prove more impactful than the Nasdaq-100 listing.
SpaceX Was Just Flooded With Buy Reports Across Wall Street. Do Analysts Know Something Retail Investors Don't?
This week, a wave of equity research reports from sell-side analysts was released on Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.38%). The big takeaway is that Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish on SpaceX stock. With so many banks publishing their first formal reports on SpaceX and coming to the same optimistic outlook, it begs the question: Does Wall Street know something retail investors don't? Why were so many reports for SpaceX stock published on the same day? When a company completes its initial public offering (IPO) and its shares begin trading, a quiet period begins. This window typically lasts between 25 and 40 days after the newly public company begins trading. During the quiet period, the investment banks that underwrote the IPO are prohibited from issuing forward-looking statements, promotional material, or equity research analysis. The rule exists to prevent the same institutions that helped price and sell the IPO stock in question from immediately hyping the deal or leaking material information that could influence market sentiment. Analysts working for the lead underwriters must remain silent because any positive research they publish too close to the offering could be viewed as an extension of the marketing effort rather than independent analysis. Once the quiet period ends, these banks are free to initiate coverage. In the case of SpaceX, this is exactly what just happened: A cluster of reports appeared on the same day because the calendar restriction had been lifted. What does Wall Street think of SpaceX stock? The table below summarizes the ratings and stock price targets analysts recently issued for SpaceX. Data Source: Yahoo! Finance Among the firms in the table, all gave Buy or Buy-equivalent ratings on SpaceX stock, except one. Unsurprisingly, longtime Tesla supporter and former Wedbush analyst Dan Ives is bullish on SpaceX. The price targets primarily range between $190 and $300, with notable outliers at Raymond James and MoffettNathanson. SpaceX's bullish thesis converges on three interlocking growth drivers. First, Starlink is shifting from primarily consumer broadband toward enterprise and telecommunications customers. This could unlock higher-margin contracts with government agencies, airlines, maritime operators, and large corporations that require reliable global connectivity. Second, SpaceX is positioned to support the acceleration of AI infrastructure buildouts by delivering additional capacity to hyperscalers. So far, SpaceX has signed $82 billion in infrastructure deals with Anthropic, Google Cloud, and Reflection AI. Third, operational improvements in rocket reusability and launch cadence in the Starship program stand to dramatically lower costs to orbit. These efficiencies can help expand SpaceX's addressable market for both satellite deployment and crewed missions. Taken together, these variables paint a picture of a company transitioning from a high-burn, capital-intensive launch and satellite operator into a diversified technology enabler with multidecade tailwinds. Understanding the limits of analyst price targets Wall Street analysts tend to have meaningful access to the C-Suite at large companies. By contrast, retail investors usually have a tough time getting past the Investor Relations department. With this in mind, many Wall Street analysts have access to information that most investors do not. However, they are strictly prohibited from issuing reports based solely on that information. This is all to say that even if Wall Street does know certain things that most investors do not, the price targets above are still just opinions -- not guarantees. These price targets rest heavily on modeling assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, and discount rates that can shift quickly. Blindly chasing the most optimistic targets or treating the consensus opinion as a certainty ignores the fact that the stock market tends to price in best-case scenarios before they actually materialize. Investors who rely solely on these reports risk overlooking valuation discipline, balance-sheet risk, and the possibility that even accurate long-term narratives can produce stomach-churning short-term drawdowns. While the end of the quiet period gives investors a clearer picture of professional sentiment around SpaceX stock, these views are just one data point among many.
Investors Who Get In on SpaceX Now Could See Their Money Multiply for 1 Reason
When SpaceX (SPCX 6.72%) was preparing for its IPO, Morningstar analysts warned investors that the best buying opportunity may not occur immediately. "We value SpaceX at $63 per share, a 53% discount to the upcoming IPO price," the firm stressed. "Our valuation is the result of mathematics more than skepticism, reflecting a wide range of possible outcomes for the company's financial future." Ultimately, Morningstar suggested that investors pass on buying into the IPO. "We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO," the firm concluded. While SpaceX stock hasn't quite fallen to its initial IPO price of $135 per share, a steep correction has given investors an opportunity to buy in at a hefty discount to the company's post-IPO highs. Investing now could be a wise decision long term for one key reason. Here's why SpaceX stock is attractive after the correction If you're looking to bet on AI, few stocks are as uniquely positioned as SpaceX. Many believe the company to be a rocket maker. And it is. The company's Falcon Heavy rocket has successfully launched more than 600 times, bringing an unprecedented number of payloads to space quickly and relatively cheaply. But rockets are simply a means to an end for SpaceX. The company, after all, used its rockets to launch its Starlink internet service -- a segment that';s posting positive gross margins and impressive revenue growth rates. The most lucrative use of SpaceX's rockets long term, however, will be for launching data centers into space -- so-called orbital data centers. Experts are split on whether orbital data centers are even possible from an economics and physics standpoint. But SpaceX is perhaps the only company on Earth today positioned to make them a reality. The idea here is simple: AI could become one of the largest markets in human history. That will only be possible if there are enough data centers to run the computing capacity required for a globally scaled AI economy. Thus, more data centers need to be built. The problem is that data centers are resource intensive, using massive amounts of land, water, and energy. Putting them into space, at least on paper, has the potential to alleviate most of those terrestrial challenges. With a Starlink connectivity network already in place, SpaceX can easily connect these orbital data centers to ground-based relay centers. Ark Invest, a major SpaceX shareholder, believes SpaceX could generate $300 billion in annual revenue by the end of this decade by renting computing power from orbital data centers. If that comes to pass, suddenly SpaceX's $2 trillion market cap becomes much more palatable. It remains to be seen whether SpaceX can actually pull off this major growth opportunity. But the potential is clearly there. And investors looking to go all in on AI stocks should put SpaceX at the top of their watch list.
SpaceX Borrowed $25 Billion and Is Buying Up AI Companies. Here's What That Means for Every Tech Stock in Your Portfolio.
The June 12 initial public offering of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 6.72%), better known as SpaceX, shattered the record for the largest Wall Street IPO in history. That was only the beginning of a whirlwind of events for Elon Musk's business. Just days later, on June 16, SpaceX announced its acquisition of artificial intelligence start-up Cursor for a whopping $60 billion. Then on June 22, the company issued its first bonds, selling $25 billion worth of debt. These activities illustrate the broader trends occurring across the technology sector. Get ready for a wild ride ahead as tech companies maneuver for dominance in the rapidly evolving artificial intelligence landscape. SpaceX demonstrates the mounting price for AI The race is on for leadership positions in the artificial intelligence era. Achieving one will be no small task, as SpaceX's recent moves indicate. Its acquisition of Cursor demonstrates that it recognizes the importance of creating a robust AI platform -- but it also shows the high costs involved. Cursor is a software development solution built on artificial intelligence that allows users to significantly accelerate programming tasks. It's proven popular, producing over $1 billion in annualized sales last year. SpaceX is far from alone here. Others in the tech space are rushing to snatch up AI businesses. On June 15, customer relationship management titan Salesforce announced it was spending $3.6 billion to acquire Fin, which provides an AI agent to answer customer inquiries. Along with acquisitions, AI brings other expenses, particularly related to infrastructure. SpaceX's inaugural bond offering is part of the company's financial maneuverings to position it for the capital commitments to come. Building and powering the vast server farms required to create and support increasingly sophisticated AI systems requires enormous levels of capital expenditures. The tech industry's costly AI pursuit Several businesses in the tech sector are facing the stark reality that AI infrastructure is expensive. Oracle, which provides cloud infrastructure for AI, warned, "We must incur significant capital and operating expenditures to increase our existing data center capacity." To fund its AI infrastructure build-out, Google parent Alphabet recently announced a massive $84.75 billion equity capital raise. Tech giant Meta Platforms increased its 2026 capital expenditure projection to a range between $125 billion and $145 billion. Last year, its capex to boost its AI capabilities was $72 billion. Wall Street was taken aback by this year's prodigious spending plan, and sold off Meta shares in response. The stock was down by nearly 20% over the past 12 months through July 2. Accelerating AI costs are hitting many tech companies, even those that aren't directly investing in infrastructure. This year, Uber blew through its annual AI budget in four months, and management is questioning whether the outcomes are worth the expense. Uber's sentiment extended to Wall Street, where concerns over rapidly rising AI costs led to a tech sector sell-off in June. SpaceX shares, which soared to $225.64 post-IPO, crashed to $147.11 on June 23. Until clarity emerges on whether all the AI spending is worth it, volatility is likely to persist across the technology sector. While it does, remember that the smart strategy is to keep a cool head and focus on the long-term performance of the tech companies in your portfolio, not their short-term stock oscillations.
SpaceX Is Joining the Nasdaq-100 This Week. What This Means for Invesco QQQ Investors.
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.97%), otherwise known as SpaceX, is joining the Nasdaq-100 index today. This means that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the index, including the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ +1.43%), will soon own the stock indirectly. J.P. Morgan, part of JPMorgan Chase, expects this index inclusion to trigger about $4.3 billion in passive buying from index-tracking funds. Although this will serve as a clear near-term demand catalyst for SpaceX, Invesco QQQ Trust investors are also getting exposure to a founder-controlled company with a limited number of publicly traded shares (float) and an unprofitable business. Why SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 entry matters for QQQ investors Invesco QQQ Trust tracks the Nasdaq-100, which includes the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq. SpaceX's quick entry became possible because the Nasdaq-100 changed its inclusion rules in 2026. Starting May 1, large newly public companies like SpaceX can be added after just 15 trading days if they rank among the top 40 eligible Nasdaq-listed companies. However, if only a limited number of shares are publicly traded, Nasdaq can limit how much weight the stock gets in the index. The change reflects today's market, where some very large companies stay private for longer and list with only a limited number of shares available for public investors. SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion will give Invesco QQQ Trust investors exposure to the space, satellite broadband, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company before S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.72%) index fund investors get it automatically. Reuters reported that SpaceX would need at least 12 months of public trading history, generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) profitability, and a public float of at least 10% before it can be considered for inclusion in the S&P 500. However, according to Reuters' estimates, SpaceX's public float is only 3% to 4%. The company also posted a $4.94 billion net loss in 2025. Since only a small portion of SpaceX shares is available for public trading, buying by funds that track the Nasdaq-100 can have a bigger effect on the stock price. But once that buying is complete, the same limited supply of tradable shares can also make the stock move more sharply if investors start selling. So, Invesco QQQ Trust investors should ask whether SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion has already lifted the stock enough to limit its near-term gains. Starlink is the key business to watch The best reason for Invesco QQQ Trust investors to take SpaceX seriously is its Starlink satellite internet business. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, with the Starlink-powered connectivity business accounting for about 60% of total sales. The business had about 10.3 million users across roughly 9,600 satellites at the end of the first quarter. Starlink is SpaceX's clearest profit engine and is helping offset losses from the company's other growth initiatives. In the first quarter, the connectivity segment generated $1.2 billion of operating profit. But SpaceX still reported a total operating loss of $1.9 billion on $4.7 billion of revenue. SpaceX's reusable Falcon 9 rocket has helped make the company a leading launch provider for NASA, the Pentagon, and commercial customers. According to Reuters, SpaceX has gone from one launch in 2006 to more than two launches per week, giving it a much faster launch pace than its rivals. The Federal Communications Commission has approved SpaceX to deploy another 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, bringing the approved Gen2 satellite count to 15,000. More satellites should give Starlink more network capacity, which can support faster broadband and mobile connectivity service, as well as growth in aviation, maritime, enterprise, and government markets. Additionally, if the next-generation reusable rocket system, Starship, works at commercial scale, it could lower launch costs and help SpaceX deploy larger, higher-capacity satellites faster. Investors are getting growth, but also uncertainty The biggest risk is that Invesco QQQ Trust is being required to buy an expensive story. SpaceX currently trades at nearly 81 times trailing-12-month sales, even though it is a money-losing business. SpaceX's AI business could become a major long-term growth engine, especially after Anthropic agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion per month through May 2029 for compute capacity. But investors should not treat that as guaranteed revenue. Reuters reported that either company can terminate the agreement with 90 days' notice, and that fees are lower during the ramp-up period. The company is also spending heavily on an AI infrastructure business that is not yet profitable. In the first quarter, the AI segment reported an operating loss of nearly $2.5 billion on $818 million of revenue. Additionally, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk accounts for 82.3% of SpaceX's voting power. Hence, although public investors may own the stock, they will have little control over major company decisions. So, Invesco QQQ Trust investors are getting automatic exposure to a company where major decisions will remain heavily shaped by Musk, not by public shareholders. NASA's inspector general said SpaceX's Artemis III Starship work has faced delays, while refueling the vehicle in space remains one of the biggest technical challenges. With Starship being crucial to SpaceX's plan to launch more satellites at lower cost and support NASA's moon missions, it also adds to the company's execution risk. Invesco QQQ Trust investors should not panic over one index addition. SpaceX will likely be a modest initial QQQ position because of its limited float. But investors should recognize that QQQ is becoming a slightly more aggressive fund, with higher valuation risk, more execution risk, and more Musk-specific governance risk. While SpaceX's addition is not a reason to abandon the ETF, it should also remind investors that the Invesco QQQ Trust is not a broad-market fund. Investors should watch Starlink profits, AI losses, Starship progress, and future earnings reports before assuming this index addition is automatically good news.
Here's Who Owns the Most SpaceX Stock
The question of who owns the most stock means more when you're asking about Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.99%) than when you're asking about a typical public company. The June 2026 IPO floated a thin slice of the business -- nearly 4.3% of the equity -- which means the people and firms who held shares before the debut own the rest. The ownership structure that developed across two private decades when SpaceX was a private company is the one that governs it now that it's public, and it puts a small number of names in charge of a $2 trillion enterprise. Elon Musk owns the most SpaceX stock There is no contest at the top. Elon Musk holds close to 42% of the equity, a stake worth more than $1 trillion at the IPO valuation. Musk's block sits under a lockup that lasts until June 2027, with no early release provision, so the largest holder is a seller of nothing for the first year on the market. The outside investors who own the most SpaceX stock Behind Musk, the biggest holder is a name many investors miss. Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (GOOGL +1.87%), the parent of Google, owns close to 7% of SpaceX, a position that can be traced to a $1 billion investment it made alongside Fidelity in January 2015 (Alphabet invested $900 million, with Fidelity contributing the remaining $100 million). That single check turned Google into the largest outside shareholder in the company, a bet on rockets from a search and advertising business. The early venture backers hold the most striking returns rather than the largest slices. Founders Fund, a firm co-founded by Peter Thiel, wrote a $20 million check in SpaceX's 2008 Series C round, and that stake is now worth $50 billion. Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and Valor Equity Partners each hold positions of around 2% or below. The February 2026 merger with xAI added new faces to the list, including Nvidia and the Qatar Investment Authority, a sovereign wealth fund. The employees and the public shareholders One large block hides in plain sight. SpaceX pays its workforce with restricted stock units and options, so employees hold a collective stake that the company does not break out in its filings. That group has waited years for the tender offers, and the staggered lockup schedule that lets them sell, and the size of their holdings is one of the least visible parts of the ownership story. You don't have much power if you buy SpaceX Beyond them sit everyone who bought at the IPO or after. Public shareholders own the small float, and more shares will reach the market as insider lockups expire throughout late 2026. The ownership map delivers one clear message: Buying SpaceX stock makes you an owner of the economics, but it doesn't give you a voice in the company's direction. SpaceX uses a dual-class structure: Musk's Class B shares carry 10 votes each, giving him 82.4% of the voting power. A public shareholder who buys Class A stock gains economic exposure to the rocket and satellite business without a real say in how it is run. Put plainly, the float exists so the public can fund the vision while the people who already own it decide what that vision costs and who profits from it. You get a ticker, a price that moves, and the privilege of watching Musk run a $2 trillion company on your money. If the board ever faces a hard call between what serves Class A holders and what serves the man holding 82.4% of the votes, the math has been settled since before you showed up. You are along for the ride, not steering it, and the ride is being priced at a valuation that assumes almost everything goes right. Whether that's a risk you want to take is up to you.
A More Than 80% Chance of a Tesla and SpaceX Merger? It Could Be a Game Changer.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has put the likelihood of a merger between Tesla (TSLA 7.35%) and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%) at more than 80% over the next year, as the potential deal fits Elon Musk's broader artificial intelligence (AI) and data strategy. Tesla invested $2 billion in SpaceX earlier in 2026, and that investment has given Tesla nearly 19 million SpaceX shares, representing less than 1% of SpaceX's outstanding shares. Now, the bigger question for Tesla investors is whether a full merger would create a stronger AI, energy, connectivity, and robotics platform or dilute Tesla shareholder value by adding SpaceX's losses, heavy spending needs, and governance risks. Increasing credibility of the merger case SpaceX's June 2026 IPO has given the company a public stock price for the first time, which makes a possible stock-based merger of the two Elon Musk companies easier to value and structure. SpaceX would bring a growth engine that Tesla does not have. In 2025, SpaceX revenue rose to $18.7 billion, with the Starlink-powered connectivity unit accounting for about $11.4 billion of sales. Starlink's satellite internet user base had reached nearly 10.3 million by the end of the first quarter of 2026. If Tesla and SpaceX merge, Starlink would add a recurring-revenue business tied to satellites, consumer connectivity, and future mobile services. Tesla is already spending heavily on AI, robotics, custom chips, and manufacturing capacity. The company raised its 2026 capital spending plan to more than $25 billion, up from its earlier $20 billion forecast. Tesla also expects negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026, despite generating $1.44 billion in free cash flow in the first quarter. A merger with SpaceX could position Tesla as a broader platform company and create a more vertically integrated platform spanning AI, energy, mobility, and connectivity. Tesla would bring vehicles, robotaxis, Optimus robots, energy storage, and software-led services that generate customer demand. SpaceX would bring satellites, launch capacity, mobile connectivity, AI infrastructure, and xAI-related software needed to connect, power, and scale that platform. Potential synergies Reuters reported that SpaceX and xAI bought about $650 million in goods and services from Tesla in 2025, including $506 million in Tesla Megapack batteries and $131 million in Cybertrucks. With Tesla already supplying energy storage and vehicles to other Musk-controlled businesses, a merger could build on existing business relationships rather than relying solely on promised future synergies. Tesla's energy storage business could generate an estimated $18.3 billion of revenue in 2026, with gross profit of about $5.3 billion and gross margin near 29%. Since SpaceX and its xAI need large-scale power storage for AI and communications infrastructure, Tesla's Megapack business could become a more strategic internal supplier. Reuters has also reported that SpaceX, xAI -- which it acquired -- and Tesla plan to build two advanced chip factories at the Terafab facility in Austin, Texas, including one for Tesla vehicles and Optimus robots and another for future AI data centers in space. Tesla and SpaceX are also working on Macrohard , an early-stage AI platform designed to automate digital workflows and improve how people work with computers. These projects make the case for a merger more concrete by showing that Tesla and SpaceX may already be developing shared technology, not just operating under the same CEO. The Federal Communications Commission has approved 7,500 additional Gen2 Starlink satellites, bringing SpaceX's permitted Gen2 capacity to 15,000 satellites. SpaceX is also pushing deeper into direct-to-cell and U.S. mobile services. Over time, that could help Tesla's vehicles, robotaxis, charging sites, and energy assets stay connected. However, this is more of a future opportunity than something likely to add meaningful revenue right away. SpaceX's next-generation Starship reusable rocket system is designed to carry more than 100 metric tons to orbit. If it works reliably, SpaceX could deploy larger satellite networks and future space-based infrastructure at lower cost, strengthening a combined company's infrastructure story. But investors should also treat this as a major execution risk, not a guaranteed advantage. Tesla investors face risks The biggest challenge for a merger deal would be SpaceX's rich valuation. As I write this, the company trades at 77 times trailing-12-month sales, despite posting a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025. The company's AI business also had a $6.4 billion operating loss in 2025 and accounted for $12.7 billion of the company's capital expenditures that year. A merger could move those losses, capital needs, and AI-infrastructure risks closer to Tesla shareholders. Tesla also has major execution risks of its own. Reuters found that its robotaxi service in Texas still faced long wait times, limited availability, navigation problems, and safety challenges in some vehicles. If Tesla is still proving vehicle autonomy and SpaceX is still proving AI infrastructure, a merger would combine two long-term bets rather than clearly reducing risk. CEO Elon Musk reportedly controlled 42.5% of SpaceX's equity and 83.8% of its voting power before the IPO. After the offering, Musk was expected to retain about 82.4% of SpaceX's voting power. He also owns around 19.9% stake in Tesla's common stock. Musk's level of influence could make a Tesla-SpaceX deal easier to pursue, but it also makes fairness more important. Tesla shareholders would need confidence that the deal price properly reflects SpaceX's losses, Tesla's own growth potential, and the companies' existing business ties. So, the real question for shareholders is whether the deal would create more value than Tesla and SpaceX could create separately. Until investors see terms, valuation, board process, and a clearer path from synergy to cash flow, a potential merger should be treated as a serious possibility rather than a proven value creator.
Anthropic Could Be a $1 Trillion IPO This Fall. These 2 Stocks Already Own a Piece.
The next giant public offering is already in motion. Anthropic, the artificial intelligence (AI) company behind the Claude models, confidentially filed to go public on June 1, on the heels of a funding round that raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation. Its reported annualized revenue is approaching $50 billion, and a listing reportedly could come as early as this fall. The trajectory behind those numbers has few precedents. Anthropic's reported revenue run rate was about $4 billion as recently as last July, and expectations reportedly call for $10.9 billion of revenue in the second quarter alone. Only a handful of companies listed on U.S. exchanges carry a market value above Anthropic's last private mark. Individual investors, of course, can't buy shares yet. But two of the market's most familiar names bought in years ago, and their stakes have quietly become staggeringly large paper windfalls: Amazon (AMZN +0.55%) and Alphabet (GOOG 0.48%)(GOOGL 0.23%). Which stock gives investors the better claim on the debut? Run the stakes. 1. Amazon: the bigger, quieter stake Amazon invested $8 billion in Anthropic convertible notes from Q3 2023 to Q4 2025, with portions later converted to nonvoting preferred stock. The company has never disclosed an ownership percentage. But estimates built from its filings put the stake in the mid-to-high teens, worth perhaps $135 billion to $160 billion at Anthropic's current valuation -- and Amazon has committed to invest up to $20 billion more. By April, the position -- $42.2 billion of convertible notes plus $32 billion of nonvoting preferred -- was already carried at more than $74 billion on paper, before the latest round could mark it higher. The mark-ups are already flowing through Amazon's results. In the first quarter, it recognized $16.8 billion of pre-tax gains included in non-operating income from its Anthropic investments -- more than 40% of its pre-tax income for the period. Set the stake against Amazon's own size, and the leverage shows. At a market value of about $2.6 trillion, a $150 billion position amounts to nearly 6% of the company. A $1 trillion IPO price would push it higher still. 2. Alphabet: the capped stake with a complication Alphabet's position is more precisely known. Court documents put it at roughly 14% of Anthropic in straight equity, contractually capped at 15% -- worth about $135 billion at the last private valuation. And in April, the company reportedly committed up to $40 billion more, with $10 billion arriving immediately and the rest tied to milestones. Alphabet's books already show a similar private-investment effect, too. Its first quarter included about $28.7 billion in net income from equity securities gains -- nearly half of a record $62.6 billion quarterly profit. But the stake lands differently at Alphabet's scale. Against a market value of about $4.4 trillion, $135 billion works out to about 3% of the company. And there's a strategic issue Amazon doesn't carry to the same degree: Alphabet competes directly with the company it part-owns, selling its Gemini models against Anthropic's Claude. Which stock gives you the better claim? A public listing changes two things for these holders. It prints a market price on stakes both companies currently value by accounting estimate, and it opens a path -- eventually -- to converting paper gains into cash. For Anthropic exposure per dollar invested, Amazon wins the math. Its estimated stake is as large as Alphabet's or larger, inside a company about 40% smaller -- so every move in Anthropic's value means roughly twice as much to Amazon shareholders as it does to Alphabet's. But there are some caveats. These are paper values, and an IPO would finally test them in a public market that can be far less generous than a private funding round. Much of both positions also sits in instruments -- convertible notes, capped equity -- whose economics differ from common stock, which is exactly why the eventual filing details matter. Still, the conclusion holds. If the reason to own one of these two stocks is Anthropic, I'd buy Amazon: the exposure is meaningfully larger relative to the company's size, and it comes without the awkwardness of funding a direct competitor. Alphabet shareholders get a fine consolation prize -- a capped-but-enormous stake, already padding reported profits. But if Anthropic prices at $1 trillion or more this fall, Amazon is the stock whose windfall is large enough to move the whole investment case.
If You'd Invested $10,000 in the SpaceX IPO, Here's How Much You Would Have Now
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.83%) drew a lot of attention in the weeks leading up to its initial public offering, for many reasons -- from the sheer size of the operation, with SpaceX's goal to become a trillion-dollar company, to the focus on offering shares to retail investors. SpaceX earmarked more than 20% of shares for them, when generally in IPOs, only 5% to 10% go to non-professional investors. Some investors were also eager to get in on SpaceX for its range of growth businesses -- and to gain exposure to a company led by the ambitious Elon Musk. So, if you happened to be one of the investors who was able to buy shares at the IPO price of $135, and if you had invested $10,000, how much would that be worth now? Let's find out. Why SpaceX has drawn attention First, though, let's talk quickly about SpaceX -- to fully understand why so many sets of eyes were turned toward the company on and before its June 12 market debut. As mentioned, the SpaceX operation promised to be big, pushing the company to a trillion-dollar market cap right out of the gate. The world's other trillion-dollar companies, such as Nvidia and Amazon, for example, had to wait years and even decades to reach such a level. And by the time they did, they already were highly profitable, well-established players. SpaceX, however, is still in earlier growth stages, developing technology and investing to reach its goals. The company's business units of space, connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI) brought in $18 billion in revenue last year, but capital spending meant the company wasn't able to turn revenue into a profit. Instead, SpaceX reported a loss of $4.9 billion. While SpaceX has scored accomplishments like rocket launches with reusable boosters and growth in satellite-based internet service subscriptions, the company still must invest heavily to reach its biggest goals. And this may weigh on its ability to reach profitability. It also involves risk because a technology setback could call into question a certain revenue opportunity. Elon Musk's big dreams Still, some investors flocked to the company for this focus on innovation, driven by chief Elon Musk, who is known for big dreams -- as head of Tesla, he's deploying robotaxis, and at SpaceX, his most significant goal may be to colonize Mars. This combination of elements put the spotlight on SpaceX when it announced its IPO. And the operation went on to raise $75 billion for the biggest market launch on record -- the company raised a total of more than $85 billion after the exercise of an overallotment option a few days later. Now, let's consider how much you would have today, about three weeks after this massive operation, if you had gotten in on SpaceX for the $135 offer price. The stock has advanced about 18% from that level to early trading at about $160 on July 2. This means your investment would be worth $11,800. You would have gained, but this isn't an enormous increase, particularly considering all of the excitement surrounding the IPO. Look for long-term performance So, if you are in this situation, what should you do next? The way to benefit most from investing isn't to hope for a quick overnight win but instead for gains over a period of years. If you invested in SpaceX during the IPO, you likely believe in the company's growth story -- this means you should give the tech and industrial giant the chance to deliver. It's important to closely follow the upcoming earnings reports to monitor capital spending levels as well as revenue growth and any progress toward goals. But if you haven't yet invested in SpaceX, I wouldn't rush to do so. The company, as mentioned above, comes with considerable risk -- and in this case, it's a good idea to consider a few quarters of financial information to see how the situation evolves. So, even though SpaceX has delivered a moderate win so far, for most investors, it still may be too early to jump in.
SpaceX Is Set to Join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. Here's Where History Says the Stock Could Trade 1 Year From Now.
On July 7, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%) is scheduled to begin trading as a member of the Nasdaq-100 index. The Nasdaq-100 comprises the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq, weighted by market capitalization. For SpaceX, inclusion in the index represents a significant step toward mainstream recognition beyond technology investors. With that said, history shows that inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 rarely serves as an independent driver of sustained outperformance. Watch out for momentum traders The anticipation of inclusion in a major index tends to amplify trading volume and expand valuation multiples as momentum traders and growth funds pile in ahead of the official rebalancing date. Let's take a look at what happened with the share prices of some companies that joined the Nasdaq-100 in recent years. * Peloton Interactive was added to the Nasdaq-100 in December 2020. Leading up to its inclusion in the index, Peloton saw its shares surge nearly 400% as the COVID-19 pandemic supercharged demand for at-home fitness equipment. Shortly after joining the index, Peloton reached an all-time price of $167. But within about 13 months, Peloton had been removed from the Nasdaq-100 and the stock had fallen roughly 83% from its peak as pandemic tailwinds faded. * Also in 2020, Okta experienced meaningful appreciation in its share price as demand for cloud-based identity and access management solutions surged amid the rapid shift to remote work. By early 2021, Okta stock had climbed to an all-time high shortly after its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100. In a post-pandemic world, however, Okta's growth rates have normalized substantially. As a result, the stock has been stuck in a prolonged period of sideways trading for years now. * In December 2024, Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, joined the Nasdaq-100. During this calendar year, the stock gained 358%, driven primarily by the company's high-profile Bitcoin treasury strategy. After peaking near the time of its late-2024 addition to the index, Strategy stock declined 68% by the end of 2025 amid shifting sentiment toward crypto proxies and Bitcoin's volatile price action. * Palantir Technologies also joined the Nasdaq-100 in December 2024. During that year, the artificial intelligence (AI) analytics darling posted a 340% return. Palantir stock continued to rally through much of 2025, supported by its strong business fundamentals. However, by mid-2026, shares have pulled back sharply from their late 2025 highs -- illustrating how even fundamentally sound companies will experience volatility once an initial wave of buying subsides. * Axon Enterprise also posted robust gains throughout 2024 as law enforcement and public safety agencies adopted its AI-enhanced hardware platform. After joining the index in December 2024, Axon -- like Palantir -- maintained upward share price momentum during 2025, yet has experienced notable pullbacks from its peaks this year. The common thread across these examples is that temporary inflows provide a one-time lift rather than a permanent valuation floor. A company's subsequent performance hinges on whether the underlying business consistently delivers impressive execution and guidance once the spotlight of index membership moves elsewhere. What will happen to SpaceX stock after joining the Nasdaq-100? Just like the companies explored above, SpaceX enters the Nasdaq-100 riding pre-inclusion momentum. This is driven by a combination of enthusiasm among retail investors and mechanical buying by exchange-traded funds. I would not be surprised to see SpaceX stock exhibit some near-term support -- possibly pushing it back toward its highs. Smart investors understand that this excitement does not alter the need for the company to prove durable progress over the coming quarters, though. Starlink subscriber growth, launch cadence, and an emerging AI infrastructure business must converge to demonstrate a path to sustained profitability. These factors will ultimately determine whether SpaceX's current valuation can be maintained or expanded. Should SpaceX's quarterly updates fall short of the market's already elevated expectations, the stock could easily face profit-taking and trade at a materially lower price one year from now. This is consistent with the pattern observed in several Nasdaq-100 additions in recent history. While index membership supports liquidity and credibility, it should be seen as a reflection of past achievements rather than a guarantee of strong future results. Investors evaluating SpaceX stock would be wise to focus on the company's operational milestones and cash-flow trajectory rather than the temporary tailwind of index-driven capital inflows. All told, a stock's record after inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 is quite mixed and frequently disappointing for investors expecting continued multibagger gains.
OpenAI Is Now Considering a 2027 IPO With a $1 Trillion Valuation. Should Investors Expect the Same Volatility as the SpaceX IPO?
OpenAI is reportedly considering delaying its IPO until sometime next year. The company has already filed the preliminary paperwork to go public, so the potential delay is a bit of a disappointment to investors who are waiting to invest in the AI juggernaut. The New York Times reported that advisors to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman are telling him that the recent volatility in Space Exploration Technologies' (SPCX +2.69%) IPO indicates that now is not a good time for AI companies to go public. SpaceX stock, after opening at $150 per share on its IPO debut and rising as high as $225 a few days later, is now back down to around $156, as of this writing. Cerebras, another recent IPO by an AI company, also experienced a huge spike on its IPO day, only to see its shares remain volatile in the following weeks. Investors are indeed concerned that AI companies are spending too much on infrastructure, with hopes of future profits too far down the road. But OpenAI may be missing the bigger picture: IPOs tend to be highly volatile regardless of the market environment. OpenAI is trying to avoid SpaceX's volatility OpenAI and SpaceX may seem like very different companies, but there's actually a fair amount of overlap between the two. SpaceX owns the Grok AI chatbot and recently made a major $60 billion purchase of Cursor, giving it AI software for programming to better compete with ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude. SpaceX is also building extensive AI infrastructure for its neocloud business, renting out high-powered processors to AI companies such as Anthropic, Alphabet's Google, and others. Why does this matter in the context of an OpenAI IPO? Both SpaceX and OpenAI are burning through piles of cash to expand their AI services at a time when investors are starting to doubt companies will see a return on their spending. SpaceX's 2025 capital expenditures totaled $20.7 billion and are likely to be higher this year, given that Q1 2026 spending was already $10 billion. The company also reported a net loss of nearly $5 billion last year and doesn't expect to be profitable for at least several years. OpenAI's detailed financial information isn't publicly available yet, since the company's S-1 filing hasn't been filed, but investors can get a good idea of the company's spending from estimates -- and there's a lot of it. OpenAI had an operating loss of nearly $21 billion last year and spent about $34 billion. The company has just over $13 billion in revenue for 2025, and says it has an annual revenue run rate of $20 billion. The point here is that, like SpaceX, OpenAI is spending oodles of dollars to build out its AI empire, and profits aren't close. The company reportedly aims to reach a $1 trillion valuation when it goes public and to avoid the volatility SpaceX stock has seen thus far. But that's easier said than done, even if SpaceX waits until next year to go public. The one thing OpenAI advisors are missing IPOs are inherently volatile, and larger ones can be especially so. Research from Jefferies analysts shows that companies worth $10 billion or more that went public over the past 26 years averaged 26.5% returns in their first week. Pretty good, right? Except that one year later, they were up by an average of just 3.5%. Ouch. The lesson here is that expecting a mega IPO to perform exceptionally well over the next year, even with all of the AI hype that's currently underway, is statistically unlikely, which means that whenever investors can get their hands on some OpenAI shares, they should be prepared for a roller-coaster ride. That doesn't mean OpenAI shares won't be a good long-term investment, or that SpaceX can't be, for that matter, either. But if you're interested in either stock, it's best to wait about a year before buying. And with investors unlikely to look the other way on the AI spending sprees underway, I expect much more share price volatility in this space ahead.
Could SpaceX Become the First $10 Trillion Company? Here's What Would Need to Happen.
The historic initial public offering (IPO) of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +2.69%), more commonly known as SpaceX, represented a watershed moment in capital markets. The IPO price of $135 per share valued the company at approximately $1.75 trillion. However, SpaceX stock opened on Nasdaq near $150 -- achieving a $2 trillion market cap on its first day of trading. At its debut, SpaceX was instantly among the world's most valuable public companies. SpaceX's swift entry into the trillion-dollar club underscores enthusiasm for its blend of launch capabilities, expanding satellite network, and bold forays into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. While the IPO was monumental, a bigger question now centers on whether this momentum can scale the company to an unprecedented market capitalization over the coming decade. Let's dig into SpaceX's growth prospects and assess if the stock can feasibly reach a $10 trillion valuation in the years ahead. What does SpaceX's revenue trajectory look like? SpaceX's revenue profile is supported by three interconnected pillars that evolve at different rates. SpaceX's launch business should continue to benefit from its reusable rocket technology, combined with rising global demand for satellite deployment and crewed missions. Starship's maturation is expected to bring further cost reductions to orbital operations, potentially unlocking a higher launch cadence and new commercial and government contracts. I think it's reasonable to expect this segment to generate steady, not explosive, growth as competition in the space exploration industry intensifies. Starlink represents the company's nearest growth engine. The constellation has already brought broadband connectivity to remote regions and is expanding aggressively across maritime, aviation, and enterprise markets. Given this success, Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan cites Starlink's potential to disrupt traditional telecoms through direct-to-cell capabilities, positioning the network as a global connectivity layer that could capture market share from terrestrial providers. The most transformative upside, however, lies in AI infrastructure. Over the last month, SpaceX has secured $82 billion worth of partnerships with Google Cloud, Anthropic, and Reflection AI. Meanwhile, the company is exploring cross-synergies with xAI for model training and Cursor for developer tooling. What would it take for SpaceX to reach a $10 trillion valuation? SpaceX's current trading levels already reflect extraordinary optimism. Based on its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, SpaceX commands a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of roughly 110 -- rich by any historical standard. Furthermore, Wall Street's long-term forecasts diverge sharply on the company's revenue profile. Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX's total revenue to reach $474 billion by 2030, fueled primarily by the AI division, which is expected to surge from roughly $3 billion today to $322 billion. Analysts at Morningstar built a comprehensive discounted cash flow (DCF) model and concluded that SpaceX has a far more conservative growth profile. Morningstar projects that SpaceX will generate only $67 billion in revenue by 2030 and could scale to roughly $500 billion by 2045. The disparity in Goldman and Morningstar's timelines to reach roughly the same revenue profile is striking. Oppenheimer was less granular on absolute dollars but emphasized a total addressable market approaching $10 trillion by 2035 between satellite communications and AI infrastructure. Blending these perspectives, I think a plausible 10-year revenue estimate for SpaceX could fall in the $200 billion range by the mid-2030s. This would assume continued Starlink subscriber momentum in enterprise markets, successful Starship commercialization, and scaling AI infrastructure contracts converting into a sustained, high-margin revenue stream. Against this backdrop, reaching a $10 trillion market capitalization at this revenue level would require a forward P/S multiple of 50x. While that's lower than today's multiple, such a valuation still embeds substantial growth expectations and a durable competitive moat. Smart investors need to be realistic when it comes to SpaceX It's important to note that the math exercise above is inherently speculative and should serve only to illustrate the scale of SpaceX's ambitions. A $10 trillion SpaceX would require near-perfect execution across multiple frontiers simultaneously. History shows that even the most revolutionary technology platforms rarely sustain the valuation profile and growth rates needed to reach such historic levels without periodic corrections. While SpaceX possesses unique technological momentum and a visionary founder and CEO in Elon Musk, translating these ambitions into consistent, profitable revenue streams at scale remains both a demanding challenge and highly uncertain. The numbers explored above highlight both the breathtaking upside and the hurdles that SpaceX must clear to justify maintaining a premium valuation. In the end, whether SpaceX becomes the first $10 trillion stock will depend less on today's enthusiasm and more on the consistent execution of management's most ambitious promises throughout the AI infrastructure era.
SpaceX Stock Is Down 22% From Its Peak. History Says This Is How Low It Will Go -- and What Comes Next.
A heavily hyped initial public offering (IPO). An impressive post-IPO pop. A subsequent pullback. Investors have seen this story play out before. And they're seeing it again with Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 7.82%). SpaceX delivered the biggest IPO in history. Its shares soared over the next few days following the IPO. Now, though, the stock is down roughly 22% below its peak. How long can SpaceX go? What comes next for the highly followed space technology company's shares? Here's what history suggests. The IPO stock playbook University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter analyzed thousands of U.S. IPOs since 1980. He found that the average IPO stock jumped 19% on its first day of trading. Guess how big SpaceX's day one gain was? Pat yourself on the back if you answered 19%. Whether or not an IPO stock soars initially, though, early pullbacks are also commonplace. That's especially the case for stocks that receive extensive media attention. For example, Tesla's (TSLA +1.20%) share price fell by more than 30% following its 2011 IPO. Meta Platforms (META +8.88%), then known as Facebook, lost more than half of its market cap in the first four months of trading. Among the 15 largest U.S. IPOs since 2006, the average stock plunged around 50% below its IPO price at some point during the 12 months following the public listing. The average first-year returns for these stocks were roughly 33% losses. But were long-term investors richly rewarded for being patient and waiting? Sometimes. Holding onto Tesla and Meta paid off tremendously for early investors. However, nine of the 15 largest U.S. IPO stocks have been losers for those who bought on the first day of trading. Rivian (RIVN 0.98%) is an especially instructive example, with its shares plunging more than 80% since the IPO. What comes next for SpaceX? Judging by the history of other major IPOs, the worst might not be over for SpaceX. Granted, the current rebound could continue for a while. However, SpaceX could decline by nearly 30% if it moves similarly to previous big IPO stocks. One key tailwind for SpaceX, though, could be its upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index after the market close on July 6, 2026. All exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds that track an index must own the index's underlying stocks. On the other hand, SpaceX could also have a ticking time bomb on its hands. Following the company's second-quarter earnings report (likely in mid-August), 20% of eligible insider shares can be sold. This number will increase by 10% if the stock trades at least 30% higher than its IPO price during five of 10 consecutive trading days leading up to the Q2 update. SpaceX also has other time-based IPO lockup period expirations. Insiders can sell up to 7% of shares at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days following the IPO. After the Q3 earnings update, up to 28% more shares can be sold. Insider selling at high volumes would almost certainly create significant downward pressure on SpaceX's share price. Math is more important than history. Mark Twain is often credited as saying, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." It's possible this adage could play out with SpaceX, with the stock plummeting as other high-profile IPO stocks have during their first year of trading. However, SpaceX's market cap remains above $2.2 trillion. That's an astronomical valuation for a company that generated $18.7 billion in revenue last year. Sure, SpaceX is growing. But its growth isn't enough to justify the premium pricing at this point. I think math is more important to SpaceX than history. Unfortunately, neither looks encouraging for investors considering buying the stock on the dip.
Should You Buy SpaceX Before It Joins the Nasdaq-100 On July 7?
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 7.82%) will join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, after Nasdaq adjusted its rules to provide a "Fast Entry" option for eligible companies. Funds that track the Nasdaq-100, including the Invesco QQQ Trust, will need to buy SpaceX stock after market close on July 6. JPMorgan estimates that this could drive $4.3 billion in passive inflows into SpaceX. Considering SpaceX has a tiny float -- only about 4% -- that kind of investment may push the price up. Should you buy before then to take advantage? There are a few problems with this strategy. Any boost SpaceX gets will be temporary and unrelated to its long-term value. It could pull back just as quickly, in which case you don't come out ahead unless you take your profits immediately. This is trading, and it's much riskier and far less effective for building wealth than investing. Also, most investors who follow SpaceX know when it's joining the Nasdaq-100. It's a good bet that plenty of people will buy the stock in anticipation of its index inclusion, which could lead to a much smaller bump than expected, or none at all. It only makes sense to buy SpaceX if you think it's a good investment. While this space stock has potential, it's extremely risky and volatile. This is a company worth over $2 trillion as of June 30, despite losing $4.9 billion last year. Numbers like that matter much more than inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, and they're one of the reasons you may be better off waiting to invest in SpaceX.
Here's Why You Might Regret Buying SpaceX Stock Before Aug. 6
The Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.05%) initial public offering (IPO) is behind us. After its market capitalization soared from $1.77 trillion to $2.5 trillion, the company's valuation has finally settled somewhere around $2 trillion. Looking to buy the dip? There is one reason you may want to wait. Aug. 6 could change everything for SpaceX While the exact date is still to be determined, SpaceX is currently expected to report its first earnings as a public company around Aug. 6. The details revealed during this announcement should have a meaningful impact on the stock price. But there's another catalyst arriving that day that could have an equally big impact. When SpaceX went public, less than 5% of its total outstanding shares were made available for sale. This limited float made the stock relatively volatile, given that supply and-demand dynamics could quickly go out of balance. When SpaceX reports quarterly earnings, however, it will unlock between 20% and 30% of its outstanding shares. In a nutshell, this means that 20% to 30% of the company's outstanding shares -- mostly held by employees, management, and early investors -- will be eligible to sell on public markets. For reference, less than 5% of the company's outstanding shares were eligible for sale during the IPO. The rest were considered "locked", with certain "unlocking" period in the weeks and months following the IPO. The impact of unlocking schedules can be difficult to predict. But one thing is clear: SpaceX's publicly traded share count will skyrocket in August, with many longtime investors now eligible to sell and book a potentially hefty profit. If you're nervous about the company's current $2 trillion valuation, you may want to wait to see whether this lockup event will provide a better entry point.
