News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
Polymarket odds tilt to Sept Fed hold at 61.5% after Warsh testimony
Polymarket Reprices the September 2026 Fed Decision After Chair Kevin Warsh's Senate Testimony On Polymarket's "Fed Decision in September?" ladder, "No change" is the leading outcome at 61.5% (up 1.0 pp) on $2.92M matched. Traders are repricing around Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Capitol Hill testimony, with the ladder showing where conviction concentrates across hike/cut paths. Key Takeaways * Polymarket currently prices "No change" after the September 2026 Fed meeting at 61.5% (Yes 61.5% / No 38.5%), ahead of a 25 bps increase at 32.5%. * Warsh's Senate Banking Committee testimony is the near-term catalyst, while the market's small +1.0 pp move suggests traders mostly kept the base case intact rather than flipping to a hike or cut. * The contract resolves off the September 2026 Fed meeting outcome, with a listed resolution date of 2026-09-16; recent tape shows choppy positioning despite only moderate momentum. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testified before the Senate Banking Committee, facing questions on the economy and how different factors could affect interest rates. The appearance follows testimony to the House Financial Services Committee a day earlier, where he reiterated a commitment to fighting inflation but offered few specific signals on the direction of monetary policy. Strike Ladder Snapshot: "No Change" 61.5% on $2.92M Matched vs 25 bps Hike at 32.5% This is a price-ladder market: each row is its own Yes/No contract on a specific September-meeting outcome, not a single "settles at" level. The current ladder centers on policy hold risk: "No change" trades Yes 61.5% / No 38.5%, while "25 bps increase" sits at Yes 32.5% / No 67.5%, and cuts are priced as long shots ("25 bps decrease" Yes 3.9% / No 96.1%; "50+ bps decrease" Yes 2.1% / No 97.9%), with a large hike even smaller ("50+ bps increase" Yes 0.6% / No 99.4%). Despite "No change" ticking up 1.0 pp to 61.5% on $2.92M matched, the historical summary flags moderate volatility with reversal_detected=true and a weakening consensus, consistent with traders fading sharp moves rather than building a one-way view. The same summary shows change_24h = -5.0 pp and change_7d = -5.0 pp even as the broader trend is labeled bullish, a mix that points to a market that is still pricing the hold as the modal outcome but with meaningful disagreement about whether the surprise risk skews toward a hike (32.5%) rather than a cut (combined 6.0%). Watch whether subsequent trading shifts probability mass between "No change" (61.5%) and "25 bps increase" (32.5%) ahead of the 2026-09-16 resolution date, since the recent reversal signal implies the ladder can swing quickly on new Fed communication. What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Linking the Fed Ladder to CPI, Recession, and BTC Rate-Sensitivity Contracts After you've mapped where this September ladder's pricing sits, the next step is scanning adjacent Polymarket boards to see whether traders are expressing the same rates view elsewhere or hedging it in different ways. On "Fed Decision in July?", "No change" leads at 95.05% on $62,766,451 matched, while "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" has "0 (0 bps)" at 80.75% with $42,471,928 in volume -- two high-liquidity reads on how sticky the platform thinks policy will be. For a contrast check on how attention rotates beyond macro, "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" shows Harry Kane leading at 46.85% on $7,411,381 matched. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Fed Decision in September? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Sep 16, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$2,919,232 Top strike rungs +1 more strikes not shown
Polymarket: Trump out by July 31 odds slip to 0.45% after Iran strikes
predict.info -- Premium Domain For Sale Domain only: USD 200,000. Prediction platform technology priced separately. predict.info Polymarket Reprices "Trump Out by July 31?" After Iran-Strikes Headline Hits Political-Risk Odds Polymarket traders sharply marked down the contract "Trump out as President by July 31?", with implied Yes odds falling to 0.45 from 0.85 on $1,035,816 in volume. The repricing followed headlines about the US launching new strikes on Iran, offering a clean read on how fast prediction markets incorporate fresh geopolitical catalysts into political-risk probabilities. Key Takeaways * Polymarket currently implies a 99.55% chance of "No" (Trump not out by July 31) and 0.45% for "Yes." * After the Iran-strikes headline, odds moved down from 0.85 to 0.45, signaling traders reduced the likelihood of an exit scenario before the deadline. * The market resolves at 2026-07-31 23:59 UTC; the contract's payoff depends on whether he is out by that cutoff. A report titled "US launches new strikes on Iran" was published on 2026-07-15. The headline indicates additional US military action against Iran, a geopolitical flashpoint that can spill into domestic political-risk narratives and near-term uncertainty. Odds & Flow: Yes Drops 0.85% → 0.45% on $1,035,816 Volume as No Implies 99.55% This is a binary Polymarket contract: "Yes" pays out only if Trump is out as President by July 31, while "No" pays out otherwise by the 2026-07-31 23:59 UTC cutoff. Pricing is now heavily skewed to "No" at 99.55, after a large step down in the displayed Yes odds from 0.85 to 0.45 alongside $1,035,816 traded -- an aggressive repricing that suggests the market moved away from a near-term exit thesis. The historical summary flags neutral trend, weak momentum, low volatility, and stable consensus, which is consistent with a market that is not currently whipping around day-to-day even after a big level shift. As a real-time barometer, the move shows how a continuously traded prediction market can update quickly on catalysts while still converging toward a single dominant outcome when traders see the resolution condition as unlikely before a fixed deadline. Watch whether the contract's Yes price continues to drift lower or snaps back toward prior levels; any sustained rebound would imply renewed disagreement on the "out by July 31" resolution condition as the deadline approaches. What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Election, Fed-Rate, and Crypto Contracts That React to Geopolitical Risk Shocks Beyond this contract, traders often zoom out to the broader slate of Polymarket boards that reprice on the same kind of headline-driven risk regime. In the long-horizon politics tape, "Presidential Election Winner 2028" has JD Vance leading at 19.85% on $659,821,076 volume, while "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49.0% on $674,410,909. For more event-linked risk, "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?" shows August 31 at 48.5% (on $195,134), and "Venezuela leader end of 2026?" has Nicolás Maduro at 81.05% on $93,688,460 -- useful cross-checks for how traders are mapping political and macro uncertainty into timelines and probabilities. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Trump out as President by July 31? * Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Leading implied prob.: 0.5% * Volume: ~$1,035,816 * Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 0.5% / No 99.5%; No: Yes 0.5% / No 99.5%
Polymarket Taiwan 2026 invasion Yes odds drop to 3.75% on $38.6M volume
predict.info -- Premium Domain For Sale Domain only: USD 200,000. Prediction platform technology priced separately. predict.info Polymarket Reprices "China Invades Taiwan by End‑2026" With No Clear News Catalyst, Signaling Flow‑Driven Odds Polymarket traders are pricing the "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" contract at 3.75% Yes (96.25% No) on about $38.6M matched volume. A loosely related headline in the feed is not about this topic, so the main signal here is the market's own repricing and reversal flags rather than a clear news catalyst. Key Takeaways * Polymarket's leading view is No at 96.25%, with Yes priced at 3.75% for an invasion by end-2026. * Despite no directly relevant linked news item, prices show a sharp swing in the data: Yes moved down to 3.75% from a prior 7.45%. * The contract resolves at 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00; the summary also flags a reversal with +2.0pp over both 24h and 7d. The only related item provided is a sports result headline: "Race Result | 15 Jul 2026 | Happy Valley | Race 1 SILVER GRECIAN HANDICAP | HK Racing." The snippet is empty and it does not supply facts relevant to the Taiwan invasion contract. Odds & Liquidity Snapshot: Yes Drops to 3.75% (from 7.45%) on ~$38.6M Matched Volume as Reversal Flags Persist This is a binary Yes/No market, so the 3.75% Yes price is the platform's implied probability of an invasion occurring by the resolution cutoff, while 96.25% No reflects the market's dominant stance. The tape shows meaningful churn: the current snapshot lists Yes at 3.75% versus a prior 7.45% (a 3.7 percentage-point drop), even as the historical summary reports latest_odds of 7.45 and reversal_detected=true -- signals that pricing has recently swung and may not be fully settled. With about $38.6M matched volume, the market looks heavily skewed toward No, but the "moderate" momentum and low stated volatility suggest incremental repricing rather than constant whipsaws. Absent a relevant news catalyst in the provided feed, the cleaner read is that the contract's recent moves are being driven by internal positioning and trading flow, and the market is still digesting its own reversal rather than reacting to a specific external update. Watch whether Yes stabilizes near 3-4% or mean-reverts toward the recent 5-trade average (avg_last_5 = 4.55), and whether the "reversal_detected" flag persists as volume grows from the current ~$38.6M base into the 2026-12-31 resolution window. What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Cross‑Market Hedges Linking Taiwan Risk Odds to Macro and Crypto Contracts Beyond the Taiwan-risk tape, traders often look for nearby contracts that can act as quick sentiment checks or rough hedges when headlines spill across themes. One to watch is 90.5% "No" on "China x Philippines military clash before 2027?" with about $1,456,455 in volume, a reminder that Polymarket's broader security-and-event slate can reprice independently even when narratives feel linked. Rotating between these adjacent contracts helps traders compare where probability is being paid up, where it's being discounted, and how conviction shows up across the platform. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? * Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Leading implied prob.: 3.8% * Volume: ~$38,559,255 * Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 3.8% / No 96.2%; No: Yes 3.8% / No 96.2%
Polymarket odds: Newsom leads 2028 Dem nominee at 20% as DDHQ outlook hits
Polymarket Reprices 2028 Democratic Nominee Odds After DDHQ House-Blue / Senate 50-50 Forecast Polymarket's "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" market keeps Gavin Newsom as the top-priced outcome at 20.05% implied odds on $1,235,991,473 in volume. The latest catalyst in the broader political backdrop is a DDHQ forecast for a Democratic House and a 50-50 Senate, while traders' pricing shows a moderate-volatility, reversal-flagged tape across the last 24 hours. Key Takeaways * Prediction market leader: Gavin Newsom at 20.05% (Yes 20.05 / No 79.95) in Polymarket's 2028 Democratic nominee market. * Basis for repricing: against a fresh midterm-leaning forecast headline, the market's summary flags a reversal with moderate volatility and a 24h move of +4.35 pp. * Key timing: the contract resolves on 2028-11-07, meaning positions are about the eventual nominee, not near-term election-cycle headlines. A new DDHQ forecast headline projects Democrats winning the House while the Senate sits at a 50-50 split in November. The story frames the outlook as a mixed congressional picture rather than a single-party sweep, offering a near-term political signal that traders may reference when thinking about the next presidential cycle. Market Reaction: $1.235B Volume as Newsom Holds 20.05% vs AOC 14.55% and Ossoff 12.05% (+4.35pp, Reversal Flag) This is a multi-outcome Polymarket contract where each named candidate is a separate "Yes" share that pays out if that person wins the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, and the displayed percentage is the market-implied probability for that outcome. At the top, Gavin Newsom is priced at 20.05% (Yes 20.05 / No 79.95), with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 14.55% (Yes 14.55 / No 85.45) and Jon Ossoff at 12.05% (Yes 12.05 / No 87.95), indicating a fragmented favorite rather than a dominant consensus pick. Despite Newsom leading, the market is not treating the field as settled: the historical summary shows moderate volatility with weak momentum, yet "consensus strengthening," which is consistent with traders clustering more firmly around a short list even as prices swing. The 24-hour and 7-day change are both +4.35 percentage points in the summary while reversal_detected is true, a combination that reads like a recent directional push that has also shown signs of snapping back rather than a smooth trend. Finally, the $1,235,991,473 volume underscores that this is a continuously updated pricing venue; headlines can act as prompts, but the contract ultimately settles on the nomination outcome at the 2028-11-07 resolution date, so short-horizon political forecasts mainly matter insofar as they shift perceptions of who the party will nominate years later. Watch whether the leading outcome remains near ~20% or whether the market broadens again: the reversal flag and moderate volatility make the next meaningful signal a sustained move in the top three (Newsom/AOC/Ossoff) rather than a single headline-driven spike. Cross-Market Readthrough: Which Polymarket Macro and Election Contracts Traders Track Alongside the 2028 Democratic Nomi Zooming out from the 2028 Democratic nomination tape, traders often cross-check similar high-liquidity politics boards to see whether sentiment is firming or wobbling elsewhere on Polymarket. Right now, that includes 31.15% on "Next French Presidential Election" (Marine Le Pen) on $112,743,658 in volume, 60.5% on "Brazil Presidential Election" (Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva) on $112,978,361, and a near-locked 96.0% on "Clacton by-election Winner" (Nigel Farage) on $2,132,671. Watching how these contracts move day-to-day can provide a broader readthrough on risk appetite and how quickly traders are willing to reprice political outcomes across jurisdictions. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Nov 07, 2028 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$1,235,991,473 Top strike rungs +41 more strikes not shown
Polymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation report
Polymarket Discounts Iran Escalation Headlines as "Regime Falls Before 2027" Odds Slip to 9.5% Polymarket traders are pricing a 9.5% chance that the Iranian regime falls before 2027, down 1.0 point from 10.5%, even as a new regional escalation headline hit. With $21,988,241 matched, the contract shows how a fast news shock is being discounted into a long-dated regime-change settlement. Key Takeaways * Prediction: Polymarket implies 9.5% Yes / 90.5% No that the Iranian regime falls before 2027 (No leads). * Basis: Despite the escalation catalyst, odds ticked down 1.0 point, signaling traders still see regime fall as unlikely on this timeframe. * Timing: The market resolves on 2026-12-31, so pricing reflects a long horizon rather than immediate battlefield headlines. A report says Iran launched attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan on Tuesday night and claimed it destroyed the US Fifth Fleet's command centre. The same account says the strikes followed continued US attacks on Iran's coastal cities and that talks had collapsed. Market Reaction: $21,988,241 Matched as Yes Drops 1.0 Point (10.5% → 9.5%) and No Holds 90.5% This is a binary Polymarket contract: a Yes share pays out if the regime falls before 2027, while No pays out if it does not by the resolution date. After the catalyst, pricing moved the opposite way -- Yes slipped to 9.5% from 10.5% (down 1.0 point), keeping No firmly in control at 90.5% even with $21,988,241 in matched volume, which reads as broad skepticism that near-term escalation translates into a defined "regime fall" outcome by the deadline. The historical summary flags low volatility and a neutral trend, with consensus described as weakening; paired with +4.0 points over 24h and 7d, that suggests traders have been willing to push the probability around recently, but not into a stable pro-Yes narrative. A prediction market updates continuously, so this small downtick amid a dramatic headline is itself information: the crowd is treating the news as noisy for a long-horizon settlement, rather than a clear step toward the specific condition required for Yes. Watch whether Yes can reclaim the 10% handle on follow-through headlines, and whether the market's "weakening" consensus tightens into a clearer direction as the 2026-12-31 resolution window approaches. Cross-Market Watchlist: How Traders Hedge Iran Risk Across Polymarket Macro, Oil, and Crypto Volatility Contracts Beyond the flagship regime-change line, traders often hedge the same headline risk across faster-resolving Polymarket contracts that map to shipping, policy, and escalation paths. Right now that includes 81.5% No on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" (with $41,677,165 matched), 98.85% No on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" (with $16,788,321 matched), and 42.0% on "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" led by "August 15" (with $5,751,743 matched). Watching how those odds move together can show whether traders are pricing a short-term disruption, a policy shift, or a broader conflict trajectory -- even when the long-dated contract stays relatively anchored. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? * Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Leading implied prob.: 9.5% * Volume: ~$21,988,241 * Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 9.5% / No 90.5%; No: Yes 9.5% / No 90.5%
Polymarket odds peg Starmer at 98% as next leader out before 2027
predict.info -- Premium Domain For Sale Domain only: USD 200,000. Prediction platform technology priced separately. predict.info Polymarket Holds "Next Leader Out Before 2027" Near a Starmer Lock Despite the Trump CDC Confirmation Headline Polymarket traders are heavily pricing the "Next leader out of power before 2027?" market toward one outcome, with Starmer - UK PM at 98.2% implied odds on $65.34M matched. The latest catalyst in the news cycle centers on reporting that Trump's CDC pick could face an easier confirmation path, but the market's pricing remains overwhelmingly concentrated elsewhere. Key Takeaways * Prediction: Polymarket's leading outcome is Starmer - UK PM at 98.2% (No 1.8%) to be the next listed leader out before 2027. * Basis: Despite the Trump-related headline, the contract stays extremely top-heavy, with Trump - USA President at just 0.15% (No 99.85%) and only a small uptick in the leader's price (+1.15 pp). * Timing: The market resolves by 2026-12-31, after a strong run-up over the past week/24h (both +27.55 pp) that signals tightening consensus into year-end. A report says Donald Trump's pick to lead the CDC could have an easier path than other nominees. The piece frames the nomination as comparatively less contentious than other confirmation fights, potentially reducing near-term political friction around that appointment. Market Reaction: $65.34M Matched as Starmer Hits 98.2% Yes vs Trump 0.15% and "None Before 2027" 0.15% This Polymarket contract is a multi-outcome "who is next" market: each row is its own Yes/No proposition, and only one outcome can win at resolution (or the "None before 2027" option if no listed leader is out). Pricing is extremely skewed -- Starmer - UK PM trades at 98.2% Yes / 1.8% No -- while long-tail outcomes like Trump - USA President sit at 0.15% Yes / 99.85% No, and even other named leaders like Petro - Colombia President are 0.4% Yes / 99.6% No. The latest move is incremental (+1.15 percentage points from 97.05% to 98.2%) on very large cumulative volume ($65.34M), which reads less like a fresh information shock and more like continued compression toward the dominant outcome. The historical summary reinforces that interpretation: odds are up +27.55 pp over both 24h and 7d with "strengthening" consensus and "moderate" volatility, suggesting traders have been steadily marking up the same winner rather than rotating into alternative leaders. Watch whether any rotation shows up in the non-leading outcomes (e.g., Trump at 0.15% Yes or "None before 2027" at 0.15% Yes) versus continued marginal bid into Starmer near the ceiling; with resolution set for 2026-12-31, late-year headline risk typically matters most if it changes the identity of who exits first, not just the intensity of day-to-day political coverage. What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Rotation Signals and Cross-Contract Hedges Across Macro and Crypto Markets Once traders have a read on this contract's balance of risk, the next step on Polymarket is checking where volume and momentum are concentrating elsewhere -- and whether those prices offer cleaner hedges or better asymmetry. Big liquidity is still parked in 49.0% on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" and 19.95% on "Presidential Election Winner 2028," while shorter-dated timing bets like 99.55% "No" in "Trump out as President by July 31?" can act as a sanity check on near-term political-risk pricing. Outside U.S. politics, contracts like "Venezuela leader end of 2026?" (80.8%) and the more event-driven "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?" (49.5% on August 31) are where traders often look for cross-contract signals when headlines shift faster than the long-horizon tape. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$65,336,702 Top strike rungs +20 more strikes not shown
Polymarket prices 18% odds Putin is out by June 2027 on $17M volume
predict.info -- Premium Domain For Sale Domain only: USD 200,000. Prediction platform technology priced separately. predict.info Polymarket Reprices "Putin Out by June 30, 2027" After Fresh US-Russia Sanctions-Bill Catalyst On Polymarket, traders are pricing an 18% chance that Vladimir Putin is out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027, on about $17.44M in volume. The repricing comes alongside fresh headlines about a possible new US Russia sanctions bill, and the market's ladder strikes show where conviction drops off across nearer deadlines. Key Takeaways * Prediction: Polymarket implies 18% that Putin is out by June 30, 2027 (Yes 18% / No 82%). * Basis: Sanctions-bill chatter is a macro catalyst, but the ladder remains heavily skewed to "No" on earlier 2026 cutoffs. * Timing: This is a date-ladder market resolving at June 30, 2027; recent pricing has been weaker, with a -2.0 pp move over both 24h and 7d. A report says US President Donald Trump suggested Congress could soon approve a new sanctions bill targeting Russia and was asked if he might sign it within the next week or two. He framed it as tied to the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, said lawmakers could expand it to include Iran and Hezbollah, and described a revised version that narrows tariffs to top buyers of Russian oil or gas while lowering the maximum tariff and adding waiver authority. Ladder Odds and Liquidity Snapshot: $17.44M Volume With 18% (Jun 2027) vs 9.5% (Dec 2026) and 2-4.35% on Aug/Sep 2026 This Polymarket listing is a price-ladder by date: each strike is its own binary contract, where "Yes" means Putin is out by that cutoff and "No" means he is not by that cutoff. The curve is steep: June 30, 2027 is priced Yes 18% / No 82%, while December 31, 2026 is Yes 9.5% / No 90.5%, and the nearer September 30, 2026 and August 31, 2026 strikes fall to Yes 4.35% / No 95.65% and Yes 2% / No 98%. With $17.44M matched, the ladder shape signals relatively low conviction in a near-term exit scenario even if traders assign a non-trivial tail probability over a longer horizon. The historical summary points to weaker recent pricing (latest odds 8.5 vs an average of 16.6 across the last five observations) alongside a -2.0 pp change over both 24 hours and seven days, consistent with a market leaning "No" rather than building a rapid-out narrative. Watch whether the ladder's nearer 2026 strikes (July/August/September/December 2026) lift together or stay pinned near single digits; a broad, parallel move would indicate traders are updating the timeline, not just adding long-horizon tail risk. Also watch whether the latest odds continues to sit well below the recent average, which would reinforce the current bearish/strong-momentum read into the June 30, 2027 resolution window. What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Timeline-Shift Signals Across 2026 Strikes and Cross-Market Positioning in Macro/ Beyond this timeline-driven contract, Polymarket traders are also triangulating risk across energy chokepoints and macro path-dependence, where moves can rhyme across otherwise separate books. In geopolitics-adjacent flow, "Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?" sits at 72.0% on the December 31 outcome ($1.11M), while "US charges Hormuz fees by...?" is much lower at 9.5% for December 31 ($661K). On the macro side, "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" is anchored at 80.7% for 0 (0 bps) on hefty $42.41M volume, and "Fed Decision in September?" has "No change" at 56.5% ($2.83M) -- useful cross-checks for how traders are positioning around timing risk across the platform. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Putin out as President of Russia by...? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Jun 30, 2027 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$17,438,699 Top strike rungs +1 more strikes not shown
Polymarket: Iran Hormuz fee odds dip to 72% for Dec 31 after ship attacks
Polymarket Reprices "Iran Charges Hormuz Fees" Odds After Shipping-Security Headlines Polymarket traders are pricing a 72% chance that Iran charges Hormuz fees by the December 31 strike, with $1.11M matched, after the latest shipping-security headlines. The move shows how the market is distributing probability across multiple deadline strikes rather than a single yes/no bet. Key Takeaways * Prediction: Polymarket prices 72% Yes / 28% No for "Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?" (leading strike). * Basis: After fresh reporting tied to Iran and commercial-ship attacks, the leading strike slipped from 74.5% to 72% even as volume reached $1.11M. * Timing: The market's resolution date is 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC, with the 24h and 7d change both at +17.5 percentage points in the summary. A top US commander in the Middle East said Iran attacked seven commercial ships in the past week, framing a sharp jump in maritime-security risk around regional shipping lanes. The comments put renewed attention on the kinds of actions that could affect passage conditions and costs for commercial traffic. Strike-Ladder Breakdown: $1.11M Matched as Dec 31 Holds 72% Yes vs Aug 31 at 49.5% This is a price-ladder market: each row is a separate contract about whether fees are in place by a specific deadline, so "December 31" is a strike, not a settlement price. The ladder shows a steep time distribution: July 15 is priced at 1.45% Yes / 98.55% No, July 31 at 10% / 90%, August 31 at 49.5% / 50.5%, October 31 at 61.5% / 38.5%, and December 31 at 72% / 28%. Even with $1,106,307 in matched volume, the front end of the curve stays low while the later strikes carry most of the probability, signaling traders see timing -- not direction -- as the main uncertainty. On pricing dynamics, the latest tick is a 2.5-point pullback (74.5% to 72%) against a +17.5-point gain over both 24 hours and 7 days in the summary, with a neutral trend, moderate momentum, and moderate volatility -- more consistent with consolidation after an upswing than a full reversal. Watch whether probability migrates from the December 31 strike toward August 31 or October 31 (the near-resolution strikes), since that would indicate traders think implementation is accelerating ahead of the 2026-08-31 23:59 UTC resolution date. What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Probability Migration Across Deadlines and Cross-Market Macro/Crypto Hedges Zooming out from the headline contract, traders often rotate into adjacent Polymarket lines to express timing risk, second-order impacts, or broader hedges as new deadlines approach. Right now that includes 100% on "Iran military action against a gulf state on...?" (July 12) with $3,812,683 matched, 43% on "Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?" (August 15) with $5,590,378 matched, 98.25% No on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" with $16,586,181 matched, and 80.5% No on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" with $41,618,170 matched -- contracts that can pull attention and liquidity as traders reprice cross-market narratives. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Aug 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$1,106,307 Top strike rungs +1 more strikes not shown
Polymarket odds put Farage at 94.5% in Clacton by-election market
predict.info -- Premium Domain For Sale Domain only: USD 200,000. Prediction platform technology priced separately. predict.info Polymarket Odds Nudge Higher on Nigel Farage After Unrelated Washington Sanctions Headline Polymarket traders are pricing Nigel Farage as the overwhelming favorite to win the Clacton by-election, with the leading outcome at 94.5% on about $2.02m in volume. The latest nudge higher follows an unrelated news hook, but the contract's recent 24h/7d drift shows how quickly the market can fade confidence even while keeping a clear front-runner. Key Takeaways * Prediction market pricing: Nigel Farage leads the Polymarket Clacton by-election market at 94.5% implied odds (No at 5.5%). * Repricing signal: the top line moved up +1.85pp from 92.65%, after earlier swings that left the 24h change at -2.6pp, reflecting softer conviction despite a dominant leader. * Timing: the market is still active and set to resolve by 2027-06-30T23:59:00+00:00. A report says a Russia sanctions bill could advance in Congress as lawmakers look for a way to honor Graham. The piece frames the sanctions effort as an active legislative push rather than a settled outcome, with attention on the bill's prospects and next procedural steps. Clacton Contract Snapshot: 94.5% Implied Odds, $2.02M Volume, and -2.6pp 24h/7d Drift This is a multi-outcome Polymarket contract, so the headline 94.5% is the market-implied chance that the "Nigel Farage" outcome is the winner at resolution, not a standalone Yes/No event price. Within the outcome row, that corresponds to Yes 94.5% versus No 5.5% for the specific question "Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?", while the listed alternatives are sitting at 50%/50% in the feed, making the market look top-heavy rather than competitively priced across named challengers. Despite today's uptick (+1.85pp from 92.65% to 94.5%), the historical summary shows a -2.6pp move over both 24h and 7d, with "low" volatility and "weakening" consensus -- consistent with traders trimming confidence without changing who they think is most likely to win. With roughly $2.02m matched, the contract reads as a high-conviction favorite that is still sensitive to incremental information, which is the typical advantage of continuous pricing versus slower narrative shifts in traditional coverage. Watch whether the leader's implied probability holds above the low-90s after the next bout of trading activity, and whether the market begins to distribute probability away from a single dominant outcome as the resolution date (2027-06-30) approaches. What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: UK Election Seats vs Macro and Crypto Contracts as Cross-Market Hedges Once traders size up a single-seat race, attention often shifts to the broader Polymarket slate where liquidity and cross-market positioning can matter just as much. On politics, "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028" leads with 19.85% on Gavin Newsom and about $1,234,817,779 in volume, while "Brazil Presidential Election" has Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 60.5% on roughly $112,571,545 and "Next French Presidential Election" prices Marine Le Pen at 30.85% on around $112,245,103. For a more tactical angle tied to the same cycle, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place" shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 83.5% with about $4,122,710 matched, giving traders another way to express view and hedge timing risk across related outcomes. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Clacton by-election Winner * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Jun 30, 2027 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$2,016,550 Top strike rungs +48 more strikes not shown
Polymarket odds for 0 Fed cuts in 2026 dip to 80% on China export view
predict.info -- Premium Domain For Sale Domain only: USD 200,000. Prediction platform technology priced separately. predict.info Polymarket's 2026 "0 Fed Rate Cuts" Odds Dip After China-Export Disinflation Catalyst Polymarket traders are still pricing "0 Fed rate cuts in 2026" as the dominant outcome, even after a small dip to 80.15% implied odds on the ladder. The immediate trigger is a fresh macro take on disinflation pressure from Chinese exports, while the market lens is the per-rung Yes/No pricing and $42.19M in volume. Key Takeaways * Prediction: Polymarket's leading rung is 0 cuts (0 bps) at 80.15% Yes (19.85% No). * Basis: After an inflation-related catalyst, the ladder remains heavily skewed toward "no cuts," with only 13.5% on 1 cut and 4.25% on 2 cuts. * Timing: The contract resolves on 2026-12-31, so these odds reflect a full-year policy-path bet rather than a near-term meeting call. A PIMCO commentator said China's push up the manufacturing value chain could keep exports growing and gaining global share, which may dampen inflation pressure in emerging markets, help local currencies, and ease inflation conditions abroad. Ladder Pricing Snapshot: 0 Cuts at 80.15% (Yes) With $42.19M Volume and 1-2 Cuts at 13.5% / 4.25% This is a Polymarket ladder market, meaning each rung is its own Yes/No contract on a specific count of 2026 cuts, not a single "settlement price" bet. On the current board, 0 cuts trades at 80.15% Yes / 19.85% No, while 1 cut is 13.5% Yes / 86.5% No and 2 cuts is 4.25% Yes / 95.75% No, showing the distribution is concentrated at the low-cut end. The latest move is a modest softening in the leader (down from 82.1% to 80.15%) alongside large cumulative matched volume of $42.19M, which points to active two-sided positioning even as the top outcome stays intact. The historical summary flags moderate volatility with strengthening consensus and a +5.35 pp change over both 24h and 7d, consistent with a market that has recently drifted toward "no cuts," but can still reprice quickly when macro narratives shift. For readers comparing lenses: unlike a periodic forecast update, this ladder continuously translates policy-path disagreement into separate probabilities across cut counts, with extreme tails priced near zero (for example, 4 cuts at 0.55% Yes / 99.45% No and 12+ cuts at 0.5% Yes / 99.5% No). Watch whether the ladder's probability mass migrates from 0 cuts into 1-2 cuts (the most plausible alternative rungs) and whether the leader's pullback extends beyond a couple of percentage points while volume continues to build ahead of the 2026-12-31 resolution. Cross-Contract Watchlist: How the 2026 Rate-Cut Ladder Connects to CPI, Recession, and BTC Polymarket Markets Zooming out from the 2026 cuts ladder, traders often cross-check it against shorter-horizon Fed timing and adjacent policy-path bets that can move first. On Polymarket, "Fed Decision in July?" has "No change" leading at 64.5% on $53,245,199 volume (+7.0 pp), while "Fed Decision in September?" prices a "25 bps increase" at 51.0% on $2,458,405. For a longer-dated directional hedge, "Fed rate hike in 2026?" shows "Yes" at 69.5% on $3,958,597 (+3.0 pp), giving a quick read on whether positioning is shifting from 'no cuts' toward outright tightening across the platform's macro slate. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$42,194,371 Top strike rungs +9 more strikes not shown
Polymarket lifts Putin-out-by-2027 odds to 19.5% after Iran escalation
predict.info -- Premium Domain For Sale Domain only: USD 200,000. Prediction platform technology priced separately. predict.info Polymarket Reprices "Putin Out by June 30, 2027" Ladder After Iran-Strike Headlines Lift Tail-Risk Odds On Polymarket, the "Putin out as President of Russia by...?" ladder is currently pricing a 19.5% chance of being out by June 30, 2027 on $17.26M in volume. The repricing follows fresh headlines about US strikes and a reinstated blockade tied to Iran, which traders may be mapping into broader geopolitical tail-risk via the contract's per-deadline odds. Key Takeaways * Polymarket's leading strike implies 19.5% "Yes" that Putin is out by June 30, 2027 (80.5% "No"). * The Iran-related escalation headline is a plausible catalyst traders translate into higher long-horizon regime-change risk, reflected in the ladder's deadline-by-deadline pricing. * Resolution is June 30, 2027; near-term strikes remain low (e.g., 0.45% by July 31, 2026), while the market shows -2.0pp over 24h and 7d in the summary. The related report says the US conducted a third consecutive night of strikes in Iran and that President Donald Trump warned Iran would be "hit hard" on Monday and Tuesday. It also describes a reinstated naval blockade applying to vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports and notes claims around attacks on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, alongside shipping-security concerns near the Strait of Hormuz. Odds Ladder & Liquidity Check: 19.5% "Yes" on June 30, 2027 With $17.26M Volume, While Near-Term Strikes Stay Sub‑1% This is a ladder (price_ladder) market: each row is a separate binary that pays out on whether Putin is out by that specific deadline, not a single "final date" bet. At the long strike, June 30, 2027 sits at Yes 19.5% / No 80.5%, while earlier deadlines are priced much lower -- December 31, 2026 at Yes 9.5% / No 90.5% and September 30, 2026 at Yes 4.05% / No 95.95% -- showing the market concentrates most probability in the longer horizon rather than the next 12-15 months. The structure matters for interpretation: a trader who thinks the risk is rising soon should look at the nearer strikes (e.g., July 31, 2026 at Yes 0.45% / No 99.55%), which remain close to zero despite the higher 2027 line. Even with $17.26M matched, the historical summary flags a bearish, strong-momentum tape with latest odds at 8.5% versus an average of 17.3 over the last five points, suggesting recent action has leaned toward "No" despite the headline-driven impulse traders may be reacting to. That contrast is exactly what continuously traded prediction markets surface: the same catalyst can lift long-dated tail risk while leaving near-term deadlines largely unchanged. Watch whether buying pressure shows up in the nearer deadlines (July/August/September 2026) rather than only the June 2027 strike; a move there would signal traders are shifting from "long-horizon tail risk" to "near-term transition risk" ahead of the June 30, 2027 resolution window. What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Near-Term 2026 Deadline Contracts and Cross-Market Geopolitical Tail-Risk Hedges Beyond the headline ladder, traders are also cross-checking nearby contracts that express the same tail-risk through shipping, regional escalation, and macro catalysts. In the Strait of Hormuz complex, 97.15% is on "No" for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" ($16.21M), while the longer-dated "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" sits at 56.5% "Yes" ($5.07M), underscoring how timing drives pricing. The calendar-style "Iran military action against a gulf state on...?" is led by July 9 at 81.9% ($651.8K), and macro watchers keep one eye on policy sensitivity via "Fed Decision in July?" at 63.5% for "No change" ($52.83M). Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Putin out as President of Russia by...? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Jun 30, 2027 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$17,260,705 Top strike rungs +1 more strikes not shown
Polymarket lifts Putin exit-by-2027 odds to 20% amid Russia fuel shortages
Polymarket Reprices Putin-Exit Odds After Russia Fuel-Shortage Headlines Hit the Ladder Curve Polymarket's ladder market on whether Vladimir Putin is out as Russia's president by June 30, 2027 is trading at 20% Yes (80% No) on $17.16M volume after a sharp repricing across the earlier date strikes. The move comes as traders digest reports of widening fuel shortages in Russia tied to attacks on refineries, with the ladder showing where timing risk is (and isn't) being priced. Key Takeaways * Polymarket prices a 20% chance that Putin is out as president by June 30, 2027 (80% No). * The repricing follows reports of Russia-wide fuel queues and refinery strikes, but traders still assign very low odds to an exit by mid-2026. * The market resolves on June 30, 2027; the latest summary shows -2.0pp over 24h and -2.0pp over 7d with moderate volatility. A report describes hours-long (and in some places multi-day) lines at gas stations across Russia as fuel shortages worsen, with some stations closing and tempers flaring in queues. It says Ukraine has increased drone strikes on oil refineries, including a July 6 strike on the Omsk refinery roughly 2,500 km from the border, and claims strikes have hit Russia's 10 largest refineries. The piece also cites knock-on effects like disrupted daily routines, pressure on taxi services, and claims of reselling and preferential access to fuel in some areas. Ladder Snapshot: $17.16M Volume With 20% "Yes by Jun 30, 2027" vs 8.5% (Dec 2026) and 0.55% (Jul 2026) This is a price-ladder, not a single binary: each date is its own Yes/No contract on whether Putin is out by that deadline, and the curve implies timing is the main disagreement. The June 30, 2027 strike sits at 20% Yes / 80% No, while the market remains far less willing to price near-term outcomes: December 31, 2026 is 8.5% Yes / 91.5% No; September 30, 2026 is 3.65% Yes / 96.35% No; July 31, 2026 is 0.55% Yes / 99.45% No. In other words, even with a macro-stress catalyst in the background, traders are primarily expressing "if it happens, it's later" rather than pulling forward high near-term odds. The historical summary flags a bearish, strong-momentum tape with moderate volatility: latest odds at 8.5 versus an 18.1 average over the last five points, and -2.0pp over both 24h and 7d -- signs that the market has recently walked back earlier-exit pricing even as headline risk persists. With $17.16M traded, the pricing looks less like a one-off headline spike and more like a ladder-wide recalibration of deadline-by-deadline probabilities, which is exactly what continuously traded prediction markets can surface faster than narrative-driven timelines. Watch whether pricing steepens (bigger gaps between 2026 strikes and the 2027 strike) or flattens (2026 Yes odds rising together), since a flatter curve would indicate traders are shifting from "late-only risk" toward materially higher near-term exit probability ahead of the June 30, 2027 resolution. What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Curve Steepening vs Flattening -- and Cross-Market Signals in Macro & Crypto Contrac Beyond the headline ladder, traders often triangulate the same risk-on/risk-off mood through other high-liquidity Polymarket boards, where positioning can shift quickly with fresh polling, data prints, or crypto volatility. One to keep on the radar is 53.5% "United Russia (ER)" in "Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?" on $15,266,790 volume, a separate venue where sentiment around institutional stability can reprice independently. From there, many desks cross-check macro and crypto event contracts -- rates, recession timing, CPI/Fed outcomes, and major token milestones -- for correlated moves that sometimes show up on Polymarket before they're obvious elsewhere. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Putin out as President of Russia by...? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Jun 30, 2027 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$17,162,053 Top strike rungs +1 more strikes not shown
Polymarket odds jump as July 12 leads Iran Gulf action ladder at 84.5%
Polymarket Front-Loads "Iran Military Action vs Gulf State" Odds After Reported Third Round of US Strikes Polymarket traders are pricing a near-term window for the contract "Iran military action against a gulf state on...?", with the leading ladder rung "July 12" at 84.5% after a +6.5pp move on $474,811 in volume. The repricing follows fresh reporting about a third round of US strikes on Iran, and the market's date-by-date ladder shows where timing confidence is concentrated. Key Takeaways * Top pricing: "July 12" leads at 84.5% implied odds on Polymarket's date ladder. * Basis for the move: odds rose (+6.5pp vs 78.0%) as traders reacted to news of additional strikes and escalation signals. * Timing: the market resolves by 2026-07-31 23:59 UTC; near-term rungs are priced far higher than later July dates. US Central Command said it carried out a third round of strikes against Iran this week, targeting about 140 military sites including missile and drone sites. The report says the strikes followed an IRGC attack on the Cyprus-flagged M/V GFS Galaxy in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving one crew member missing and the ship disabled by a fire. Date-Ladder Pricing and Flow: "July 12" Jumps to 84.5% on $474,811 Volume as Mid-July Rungs Fade This is a price-ladder market, so each date is its own Yes/No bet on whether the specified action occurs on that date; it is not a single "settle price" outcome. The front of the curve is steep: "July 12" trades Yes 84.5% / No 15.5%, while "July 13" is lower at Yes 74.0% / No 26.0%, and the odds drop further out to "July 14" at Yes 44.0% / No 56.0% and "July 20" at Yes 17.0% / No 83.0%. The contract-level snapshot shows a +6.5pp rise from 78.0% to 84.5% alongside $474,811 matched, aligning with a "bullish" trend, "strong" momentum, "high" volatility, and "strengthening" consensus in the historical summary. That combination -- large positive 24h/7d change (+69.3) but high volatility -- signals traders are converging on an early-date thesis while still paying meaningful premiums to hedge into later rungs rather than treating the timing as settled. Watch whether the ladder's slope continues to flatten or steepen: if confidence shifts away from the front rung, it should show up as "July 12" compressing toward "July 13" while mid-July rungs (July 14-16) gain relative share. Also monitor whether volume continues to build while the leading rung holds above the recent average (avg_last_5: 79.6), which would indicate follow-through rather than a single headline spike. Cross-Market Watchlist: How Macro and Crypto Polymarket Contracts Reprice if Geopolitical Risk Tightens Liquidity Beyond the headline ladder, traders are also cross-checking adjacent Polymarket contracts that can reprice fast when liquidity tightens and hedges migrate. The deepest pool is 80.3% on "Iran leader end of 2026?" (volume $26,790,730), while shipping-risk gauges stay pinned with 99.65% "No" on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?" (volume $9,792,180) and 97.25% "No" on the July 31 version (volume $16,019,709). For policy tail-risk, "US announces blockade on Iran by...?" is sitting at 59.5% (volume $2,424,931), giving traders another line to express timing and escalation views without touching the main contract. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Iran military action against a gulf state on...? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$474,811 Top strike rungs +19 more strikes not shown
Polymarket prices 60% chance of 2026 Fed hike after weak June jobs report
Polymarket Reprices "Fed Rate Hike in 2026?" After Weaker June Jobs Report On Polymarket, the "Fed rate hike in 2026?" contract is priced at 60% Yes (40% No) on $3.81m matched volume, after a sharp swing from 66.5% previously. The repricing follows a weaker-than-expected June jobs report that traders read through the lens of how much pressure the Fed will have to keep tightening. Key Takeaways * Polymarket currently implies a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026 (Yes 60%, No 40%), with Yes still the leading outcome. * After the jobs-report catalyst, odds moved off 66.5% to 60%, signaling meaningful disagreement even as the broader trend remains bullish for "Yes." * The market resolves on 2026-12-09, and the recent tape shows high volatility with a 9.0pp move over both 24h and 7d. A June U.S. jobs report showed payrolls up 57,000 versus a 115,000 economist estimate, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% as participation fell to 61.5%. The report also included downward revisions to April and May payroll gains, and stocks rose on the view that a cooling labor market reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates. Odds, Liquidity, and Tape: Yes 60% (Down From 66.5%) on $3.81M Matched Volume With 9.0pp Volatility This is a binary contract: a "Yes" share at 60% represents the market's implied probability that at least one Fed rate hike occurs in 2026 by the resolution date (2026-12-09). Despite the macro headline pointing toward less tightening pressure, Polymarket is still pricing a majority-probability hike outcome, but the drop from 66.5% to 60% shows traders are not treating the labor data as decisive. The historical summary flags high volatility and a detected reversal, consistent with the intraday-like whipsaw in the provided change series (large down move followed by rapid rebounds) rather than a smooth repricing. At the same time, the tape is labeled bullish with strengthening consensus and moderate momentum, which fits a market that keeps reverting toward "Yes" even after negative catalysts. With $3.81m matched volume, the contract has enough activity that these probability shifts read as a real-time aggregation of competing rate paths, not a single snapshot reaction. Watch whether the market stabilizes around the mid-50s to low-60s range or extends the reversal: given the "high" volatility and "reversal_detected" flag, the next notable signal is a sustained move away from the avg_last_5 of 59.7% versus another quick snap-back toward the prior 66.5% highs as new macro prints land. What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: CPI, Recession, and Crypto Rate-Sensitivity Contracts After the 2026 Hike Reversa Zooming out from the 2026 path, traders are also parking liquidity in nearer-dated policy and event contracts that can reprice fast on headlines. The 77.5% "Fed Decision in July?" market (No change) is the obvious front-end gauge, and its $50,729,978 in volume shows where the platform's macro attention is concentrated. For a very different kind of catalyst risk, "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026" has Kylian Mbappé leading at 32.5% with $6,789,948 traded -- an example of how Polymarket participants rotate between rate-sensitive macro and high-volatility cultural/sports outcomes depending on the news cycle. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Fed rate hike in 2026? * Resolution window: Dec 09, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Leading implied prob.: 60.0% * Volume: ~$3,811,912 * Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 60.0% / No 40.0%; No: Yes 60.0% / No 40.0%
Polymarket odds for Iran Gulf action fall to 66.5% after Hormuz claim
Polymarket Reprices the "Iran Military Action Against a Gulf State" Ladder After IRGC Strait of Hormuz Headline Polymarket traders marked down the top strike in the "Iran military action against a Gulf state" ladder, with the leading July 13 line at 66.5% after a 16.0-point drop on $519,984 in volume. The move followed headlines about an IRGC claim on the Strait of Hormuz, offering a clean read on how timing risk is being repriced across the date strikes. Key Takeaways * Polymarket's leading strike is July 13 at 66.5% Yes / 33.5% No. * After the Hormuz-closure headline, the ladder repriced lower, with the leading strike down 16.0 points to 66.5% on $519,984 volume. * This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-07-31T23:59:00+00:00; recent action shows high volatility with reversal_detected flagged in the summary. A live conflict update reported that Iran's IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, framing the move as a response to US interference. The same update said Israel continued attacks on Gaza and Lebanon, with multiple civilians reported killed or wounded. Odds & Liquidity Breakdown: July 13 Drops to 66.5% on $519,984 Volume as the Date-Strike Curve Steepens This is a price-ladder market: each date is its own binary, where "Yes" reflects the chance the specified action occurs on that specific day, not a single pooled probability for the whole month. The front of the curve still prices near-term risk as dominant -- July 12 trades 64.5% Yes / 35.5% No and July 13 trades 66.5% Yes / 33.5% No -- while later dates steeply discount, like July 14 at 37.5% Yes / 62.5% No and July 20 at 16.5% Yes / 83.5% No. The headline-triggered downtick is sharp at the lead strike (down from 82.5% to 66.5%), yet the historical summary simultaneously flags high volatility and reversal_detected, which fits a market that has been whipsawing between fast-risk and de-escalation interpretations rather than converging smoothly. With $519,984 matched and "consensus: strengthening" alongside "trend: bearish," the most defensible read is that traders are narrowing toward a specific early window (around July 12-13) even as they reduce confidence from prior highs. Watch whether the ladder's curve flattens (later dates rising toward the front) or steepens (July 12-13 holding up while July 14+ fades), since that shape change is the clearest signal of traders shifting from "imminent" timing to "delayed or not on a specific day" timing into the 2026-07-31 resolution deadline. Cross-Market Watchlist: How Traders Hedge Timing Risk Using Macro and Crypto Polymarket Contracts Alongside the Iran Lad If you're managing timing risk on this ladder, it helps to keep an eye on adjacent Polymarket contracts that capture the same headline flow through different resolution mechanics. Traders have been especially active in "Iran leader end of 2026?" (79.55%, $26,773,557 volume) and the shipping-focused "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" (95.5%, $15,693,532 volume), while the nearer-dated "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?" sits at 99.65% on $9,419,896. For a more operational read-through, "Iran full airspace closure by...?" is pricing its lead at 33.0% ($3,232,894 volume), offering another way to gauge whether traders see disruption as transient or persistent. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Iran military action against a gulf state on...? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$519,984 Top strike rungs +19 more strikes not shown
Polymarket odds: Putin out by June 2027 rises to 18% amid Ukraine war escalation
Polymarket Reprices "Putin Out by June 30, 2027" After Renewed Russia-Ukraine Strike Headlines Polymarket traders are pricing a higher chance that Vladimir Putin is out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027, with the lead ladder rung at 18% on $17.14M matched. The repricing comes alongside fresh headlines on intensified Russia-Ukraine strikes, and the ladder's across-date probabilities show where the market concentrates timing risk. Key Takeaways * Top pricing implies 18% for "Putin out by June 30, 2027" (Yes 18% / No 82%) on Polymarket's ladder. * The catalyst is renewed reporting on escalating strikes; traders' reaction shows up as a higher long-dated removal probability than near-term rungs. * Settlement is tied to the June 30, 2027 resolution date; near-term rungs (2026 dates) remain single-digit Yes probabilities. A report says Russia struck Kyiv and Odesa with missiles and drones, with Ukrainian authorities reporting injuries in Kyiv and deaths and injuries in Odesa. It also describes separate attacks in Kharkiv, damage to civilian sites, and Zelenskyy urging NATO members to follow through on commitments while Ukraine faces dwindling munitions. The piece adds that fighting has escalated, with Ukraine increasing drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and activity around the Sea of Azov and Crimea, followed by intensified Russian attacks. Ladder Market Data: $17.14M Matched With 18% on June 30, 2027 vs 8.5% (Dec 31, 2026) and 0.65% (Jul 31, 2026) This is a price-ladder market: each date is a separate binary on whether Putin is out by that cutoff, so "June 30, 2027" at Yes 18% / No 82% is not a forecast of a specific date -- it's the probability of being out by that deadline. The curve is steep: December 31, 2026 is Yes 8.5% / No 91.5%, while September 30, 2026 is Yes 3.95% / No 96.05% and July 31, 2026 is Yes 0.65% / No 99.35%, signaling traders place most of the risk in a longer window rather than imminently. Despite $17,141,276 matched, the historical summary flags bearish, strong momentum with moderate volatility and a -2.0pp move over both 24h and 7d, suggesting recent trading has leaned toward "No" relative to the last-week average (latest 8.5 vs avg last 5 at 16.4). The big spread between the 2026 rungs and the 2027 rung implies timing disagreement is concentrated after 2026 -- consistent with a market that updates continuously on catalysts but still demands a high bar for near-term regime-change probabilities. Watch whether liquidity continues to migrate between the 2026 rungs and the June 30, 2027 rung: if the headline flow is interpreted as near-term destabilization, the earliest rungs (July/August/September 2026) should rise first; if not, moves may stay concentrated in the longer-dated 2027 cutoff. Cross-Contract Watchlist: How Traders Rotate Liquidity From Putin-Timing Ladders Into Macro, Election, and Crypto Polyma Beyond this ladder, traders often rotate into other high-activity Polymarket contracts that offer cleaner, shorter-dated exposure to macro risk, election timing, and crypto volatility. In practice, that means watching the platform's top CPI/Fed-path and recession-style markets, the headline U.S. election questions, and the always-liquid BTC/ETH and ETF/approval event contracts -- because when attention (and liquidity) shifts, pricing can re-anchor quickly across themes even if the underlying drivers aren't directly connected. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Putin out as President of Russia by...? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Jun 30, 2027 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$17,141,276 Top strike rungs +1 more strikes not shown
Polymarket odds jump to 57.5% for Iran action on July 12 after Hormuz report
Polymarket Ladder Reprices After Hormuz-Linked U.S. Strike Reports Shift Timing Expectations Polymarket traders sharply repriced the ladder market on whether Iran will take military action against a Gulf state, with the leading July 12 strike at 57.5% and $252,734 matched. The move followed new reporting about U.S. strikes on Iran tied to a shipping incident in the Strait of Hormuz, and the market's repricing is visible across nearby date strikes. Key Takeaways * Prediction: The leading strike is July 12 at 57.5% Yes (42.5% No) on Polymarket's ladder. * Basis: After the Hormuz-related catalyst, the market jumped +42.3 percentage points to 57.5% with $252,734 matched, signaling a fast update in expected timing. * Timing: The market resolves by 2026-07-31 23:59 UTC; odds also show a steep drop-off for later July strikes. A report says the U.S. military began a third round of strikes against Iran after a civilian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz was hit and a Cyprus-flagged container ship suffered significant engine-room damage, with one civilian crew member missing. Iran said it considers the Strait of Hormuz closed again after warning shots at a ship it described as using an unauthorized route. The report also describes diplomatic contacts involving Oman and Iran about the strait and mentions Iranian statements about carrying out revenge tied to wartime events. Odds & Liquidity Snapshot: July 12 Leads at 57.5% Yes on $252,734 Matched as Later July Strikes Fade This is a price-ladder market: each date is its own Yes/No contract, where "Yes" means Iran takes military action against a Gulf state on that specific date (not a single market that settles to a date). The repricing is concentrated in the near-term strikes: July 12 trades 57.5% Yes / 42.5% No, while July 13 is near a coin flip at 51.5% Yes / 48.5% No; further out, July 16 is 33.5% Yes / 66.5% No and July 31 is 18.5% Yes / 81.5% No. That shape implies traders are expressing timing risk more than a blanket "yes eventually" view -- confidence decays quickly as the date moves later in July. On market efficiency signals, the leading strike jumped from 15.2% to 57.5% (+42.3pp) on $252,734 matched, and the historical summary flags strong bullish momentum with low volatility and stable consensus, suggesting the market moved decisively rather than whipsawing. The resolution window (by 2026-07-31 23:59 UTC) matters because these contracts are keyed to specific calendar days; small shifts in perceived timing will rotate pricing across adjacent strikes rather than simply pushing one continuous probability up or down. Watch whether pricing continues to concentrate on July 12-13 or migrates to later strikes (July 15-19) as traders express timing uncertainty; the steep gap between July 13 (51.5% Yes) and July 16 (33.5% Yes) is the key fault line to monitor into the 2026-07-31 resolution deadline. What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Timing-Risk Rotation Across July 12-19 Ladders and Related Macro/Crypto Volatilit Beyond the July 12-19 timing ladder, traders often rotate into adjacent Polymarket contracts that express the same risk through different settlement triggers and horizons. In the shipping lane bucket, 99.55% is on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?" (leading "No") on $8,996,888 volume, while 93.5% backs "No" on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" with $15,356,070 traded. On the longer-dated political side, "Iran leader end of 2026?" has 79.85% on "Mojtaba Khamenei" with $23,138,158 volume, and "US announces blockade on Iran by...?" prices "December 31" at 55.0% on $2,056,034 -- contracts that can move on different headlines even when the near-term calendar markets stay rangebound. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Iran military action against a gulf state on...? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$252,734 Top strike rungs +19 more strikes not shown
Polymarket odds show Vance leading 2028 field at 19.85%
predict.info -- Premium Domain For Sale Domain only: USD 200,000. Prediction platform technology priced separately. predict.info Polymarket Reprices the 2028 Field After "Democratic Socialist Primary Revolt" Narrative Shock Polymarket traders are pricing the 2028 US presidential field with JD Vance as the top outcome at 19.85% in a $655,785,234 market. The move is being watched alongside a fresh media take on a "Democratic Socialist primary revolt," with the contract's cross-candidate pricing showing how quickly narrative shocks get expressed as implied probabilities. Key Takeaways * Polymarket's leading implied outcome is JD Vance at 19.85% in the "Presidential Election Winner 2028" market. * A new commentary framing a "Democratic Socialist primary revolt" as a major intra-party force is a narrative catalyst traders can map into cross-candidate pricing, not a single-candidate binary move. * The market resolves on 2028-11-07, and recent odds action in the series shows a 24h/7d change of -3.15 pp with "bearish" trend and "low" volatility. A published analysis featuring CNN's Harry Enten argues that a "Democratic Socialist primary revolt" resembles "a new Tea Party, but it's on steroids." The piece frames the dynamic as an intensified intra-party insurgency with potential downstream implications for candidate coalitions and primary outcomes. 2028 Winner Market Snapshot: $655.8M Volume With Vance 19.85%, Rubio 13.8%, Newsom 11.65% and -3.15pp 24h Drift This is a multi-outcome Polymarket contract: each candidate is its own Yes/No proposition, and the displayed probability is the market-implied chance that specific candidate wins the 2028 election by the resolution date. At the top of the board, JD Vance sits at 19.85% (Yes 19.85% / No 80.15%), ahead of Marco Rubio at 13.8% (Yes 13.8% / No 86.2%) and Gavin Newsom at 11.65% (Yes 11.65% / No 88.35%), which signals a fairly dispersed "favorite" rather than a dominant consensus pick. The market's historical summary points to weakening pricing and a modest drift lower (change_24h -3.15 pp; avg_last_5 18.2 vs latest_odds 16.4) while still labeling volatility as low, consistent with traders updating incrementally rather than violently repricing the entire field. Because the contract is continuously traded, narrative catalysts like the "primary revolt" framing tend to show up as small, cross-candidate shifts (rotation among plausible nominees) rather than a slow, single headline-driven step change. Watch whether the top tier compresses or spreads: if Vance's lead holds near 19.85% while the next candidates (Rubio 13.8%, Newsom 11.65%) rise or fall together, that would indicate broad coalition re-pricing rather than a single name absorbing the narrative. Also monitor whether the weakening 24h/7d trend reverses without a jump in volatility, which would imply a steadier consensus rebuild rather than a one-off reaction. Cross-Contract Watchlist: How 2028 Candidate Rotations Spill Into Polymarket Macro and Crypto Outcome Markets Zooming out from the 2028 field itself, Polymarket traders often track how narrative rotations in one political slate echo into adjacent contracts and even risk-on/risk-off positioning elsewhere on the platform. Two nearby reads are 97.8% on "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" (leading outcome: Starmer - UK PM; $64,196,525 volume) and 49.0% on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" (leading outcome: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; $671,694,568 volume), where shifts in implied probabilities can act like a sentiment check on broader election-cycle expectations. Watching these side-by-side can help traders distinguish a single-market repricing from a cross-contract move that's influencing macro and crypto outcome positioning more generally. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Presidential Election Winner 2028 * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Nov 07, 2028 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$655,785,234 Top strike rungs +33 more strikes not shown
Polymarket prices Hormuz normal-by-July-31 at 6.5% after escalation
Polymarket Dumps "Strait of Hormuz Traffic Normal by July 31?" After Ship-Attack Escalation Headlines Polymarket traders have swung sharply toward "No" on the contract "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?", with Yes priced at 6.5% on $15,070,856 matched. The move follows fresh headlines about attacks and renewed escalation tied to the strait, and the market's shift is visible in the big drop from 42.0% previously. Key Takeaways * Prediction: Polymarket implies a 93.5% chance of "No" (traffic does not return to normal by July 31), with "Yes" at 6.5%. * Basis: After escalation claims tied to ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, traders repriced the July 31 normalization outcome sharply lower. * Timing: The contract resolves on 2026-07-31; the tape shows a large down move from 42.0% to 6.5% with $15.07M matched. A July 10 segment said the U.S. president declared an agreement pausing the war with Iran was over and ordered strikes, alleging Iran violated a ceasefire by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. It said Iran responded by targeting U.S. interests in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, describing the escalation as the worst since a memorandum of understanding signed last month and noting mediators were trying to ease tensions. Odds Collapse from 42.0% to 6.5% Yes on $15.07M Matched -- What Liquidity Signals About "No" at 93.5% This is a binary Yes/No market: a 6.5% Yes price is the market-implied probability that traffic returns to "normal" by the July 31 resolution, while No at 93.5% is the complementary view. The repricing is extreme on its face -- Yes fell 35.5 percentage points from 42.0% to 6.5% -- signaling traders now see "normal by the deadline" as a low-probability tail rather than a base case. Even without a detailed tape here, the historical summary flags high volatility and strong bearish momentum with reversal_detected set to true, consistent with a market that has been whipsawing but ultimately drifted toward a pessimistic consensus. With $15.07M matched, the price is not just a thin-liquidity print; it reflects a broad willingness to take the other side at much lower implied odds, which is typical of continuously traded prediction markets updating faster than narrative-based takes as new risk headlines hit. Watch whether "Yes" can reclaim and hold above the historical avg_last_5 level (51.0) or whether the bearish trend persists into July; any sustained recovery would show traders re-opening the "normalization by the deadline" path ahead of the 2026-07-31 resolution. Cross-Market Watchlist: How This Repricing Filters Into Polymarket's Macro, Oil, and Crypto Volatility Contracts If you're tracking how this risk premium spills over into the rest of Polymarket, the adjacent contracts are where traders often express tighter timeframes and higher-level scenario hedges. "99.45%" is currently leading on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?" with $8,949,727 matched, while "Iran leader end of 2026?" has "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 82.65% on $23,134,932 volume. Beyond that, the platform's longer-dated escalation gauges like "US announces blockade on Iran by...?" (47.0%, $1,970,772) and operational constraints like "Iran full airspace closure by...?" (25.5%, $2,702,164) can offer a cleaner read on whether traders see the shock as a transient headline or a durable macro regime shift. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? * Resolution window: Jul 31, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Leading implied prob.: 6.5% * Volume: ~$15,070,856 * Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 6.5% / No 93.5%; No: Yes 6.5% / No 93.5%
Polymarket prices 99.65% No on Hormuz normal traffic by July 15
predict.info -- Premium Domain For Sale Domain only: USD 200,000. Prediction platform technology priced separately. predict.info Iran-Linked Headlines Push Polymarket to a 99.65% "No" on Strait of Hormuz Normal Traffic by July 15 On Polymarket, traders are pricing a near-certain "No" on whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15, with Yes at 0.35% and No at 99.65% on $8.69M matched. The latest Iran-focused headlines are acting as a catalyst, but the sharper story is the contract's steep odds compression and high-volatility path into the deadline. Key Takeaways * Prediction-market pricing strongly favors "No" at 99.65% implied, with "Yes" at 0.35% on the July 15 normal-traffic question. * The Iran-related news cycle coincides with traders leaning harder into disruption risk, pushing the market toward a stronger No consensus. * Timing is tight: the binary resolves on 2026-07-15, after a high-volatility week (change_7d: -11.5pp; reversal_detected: true). A live update on the Iran conflict reported new attacks, while a Washington official said the US was not behind the latest strikes and that technical talks with Iran are continuing. The combination of reported strikes alongside ongoing talks keeps near-term uncertainty elevated. Market Data Breakdown: $8.69M Matched as "Yes" Compresses to 0.35% Amid -11.5pp Weekly Swing and Reversal Signal This is a binary Polymarket contract, so the displayed Yes price (0.35%) is the market-implied probability that the "returns to normal by July 15" condition is met at resolution; at the same time, No is priced at 99.65% as the dominant outcome. With $8.69M matched, the current pricing reflects a very lopsided consensus rather than a 50/50 dispute, consistent with the historical_summary tag of "consensus: strengthening." The path to that consensus has been choppy: the market's 24h and 7d move are both -11.5pp with "volatility: high" and "reversal_detected: true," suggesting traders have repeatedly tested higher Yes levels before selling them back down. In practical terms, anyone buying Yes here is paying for a low-probability, time-bounded swing by July 15, while No holders are betting the market's disruption-risk base case persists through the resolution window. Watch whether the market can sustain a sub-1% Yes price into mid-July despite its high-volatility history; any renewed bounce in Yes would be a tell that traders think "normal traffic" could be achieved within the remaining time to the 2026-07-15 resolution. What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Oil, Inflation, and Crypto Volatility Contracts That Reprice if Hormuz Risk Escal Beyond this deadline-driven lane, Polymarket traders are also crowding into adjacent contracts that would reprice quickly on any shift in risk appetite and headlines. The biggest by volume is "Iran leader end of 2026?" with Mojtaba Khamenei leading at 82.5% on $22.51M, while the longer-dated shipping read-through "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?" has "No" at 91.5% on $14.31M. For timing signals, "Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?" points to July 31 at 58.5% on $6.00M, giving traders another liquid venue to express views on how fast the news cycle could move. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? * Resolution window: Jul 15, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Leading implied prob.: 0.3% * Volume: ~$8,690,069 * Top outcomes: Yes: Yes 0.3% / No 99.7%; No: Yes 0.3% / No 99.7%