News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
SpaceX Is Down 20%: Here's Why I'm Still Not Buying
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +3.19%) has drawn a great amount of excitement in recent times. The company, better known as SpaceX, completed the world's biggest initial public offering last month -- and saw its stock soar 27% in the first days of trading. In recent times, SpaceX stock has pulled back, even falling below its IPO price of $135. But even at this level, I think the stock is too expensive considering the risk involved -- that's why I'm still not buying. Let's check out the details. A smart mix of businesses It's true that SpaceX offers a smart mix of growth businesses -- rocket launches, connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI) -- and these businesses can work together to deliver efficiency. For example, SpaceX can use its rockets to deliver materials to space for the satellite-based internet service and the AI business. This offers SpaceX great autonomy and keeps costs down. The company has also made progress on goals such as bringing down the costs of rocket launches, and last year it completed more orbital launches than any other player. The connectivity business has seen its subscribers quadruple over three years, and this growth is key since this unit drives revenue growth. All of that is positive, and SpaceX, at $119 at the July 20 market close, is considerably lower than it was a few weeks ago. But I'm still not buying because the stock is expensive given the amount of risk involved. Prior to the IPO, Morningstar said its fair value for SpaceX was $63, which seems reasonable; today, the SpaceX price remains far from that level. Upcoming earnings reports I also think that before diving in, it's important to take a look at an earnings report or two to monitor the company's spending trends and the level of revenue that's being generated. So far, we may look at the financial picture over the past three years, as provided in the prospectus. But since SpaceX's capital expenditures are increasing, I'd like to see fresh earnings data. This is particularly key for a company like SpaceX, which has many goals linked to technologies that are still in development. For example, as SpaceX increases capital spending, is its revenue climbing at a fast pace? Last year, capex of $20 billion exceeded revenue, which was $18 billion. I'd like to see revenue step ahead in the coming quarters. At this point, SpaceX remains an interesting business that's made progress in key areas. The company could have a very bright future several years down the road, so I understand that some investors aim to get in early. But in my opinion, risk remains high, and visibility remains limited -- so even though SpaceX stock has declined, I'm still not buying.
Should You Buy $1,000 Worth of SpaceX Stock Before Its First Earnings Report?
One of the more recent arrivals to our stock market, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.41%), better known as SpaceX, has never published a quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded company. That's going to change soon. While the market doesn't yet have a firm date for when the figures for its second quarter ending June 30 might be released, it's reasonable to expect a report in early August. So there's time to consider if it's worth spending $1,000 on the company's stock. I wouldn't be willing, and here's why. Moving in the darkness One of the primary reasons is that SpaceX remains something of a mystery. Its name is somewhat misleading, since most of its operations aren't directly involved in space exploration. It has a thriving satellite business with Starlink, a high-capex artificial intelligence (AI) unit that builds data centers and manages the X (formerly Twitter) social media platform, as well as a space business. While the company intends for all these operations to complement each other, SpaceX is at present more of a jumble of activities that don't necessarily synthesize. That, plus the fact that the company's pre-IPO filings don't provide much detail about its finances, makes the second quarter hard to estimate. This is surely why analyst projections are all over the place. There are many pundits already tracking SpaceX stock; 25 of them are included in the data compiled by Yahoo! Finance, for example. But, unusually for analysts, their estimates don't sit within a relatively narrow range. Their figures for the quarter's revenue have a range of nearly $3 billion -- from $5.3 billion to $8.1 billion. Those prognosticators seem to agree that the historically loss-making SpaceX will also land in the red in the second quarter. The big question is by how much -- the current net loss estimates range from $0.12 to $0.42. Stuck on the launchpad Another element keeping me away from SpaceX is that it's still experiencing setbacks in its headline activity. Late Thursday afternoon, the company unexpectedly aborted the latest launch of its Starship rocket, after some of its engines apparently failed to start. Uncomfortably, this is the heavy rocket that's supposed to be the launch vehicle helping power the company to astronomical success and glory. Mission aborts happen, of course, but there's an awful lot of capital betting on that not to occur -- at least, not often -- at SpaceX. Understandably, the stock fell after the sudden cancellation (SpaceX stock fell 5% in Friday trading). With that decline, $1,000 would buy eight shares of SpaceX. That's not a huge commitment in the grand scheme of things, but even given that, I'd hold off on investing in this stock. The second quarter is sure to feature plenty of red ink, and the company still has at least one major operational kink to work out. I feel that money has better potential for liftoff in other stocks.
How Buying SpaceX Today Could More Than 10X Your Net Worth
Let's cut to the chase. An investment in Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.41%) today could very well grow your net worth tenfold if -- stay with me -- annual revenue grows at an average rate of about 42% for the next 15 years, or 23% over the next 25 years. If either came true, annual revenue would reach about $3.6 trillion, which is strikingly close to Morgan Stanley's 2040 forecast of $3.4 trillion for SpaceX. With this in mind, let's take a closer look at my reasoning to see if this space stock is worth buying today. What would it take for SpaceX to grow tenfold? SpaceX came to the market in mid-June with a lofty valuation. After its debut, the stock followed a ballistic trajectory, launching vertically for a few days before tilting to an angle and dropping sharply. The stock trades at $125, more or less, roughly 44% below its all-time high. The company reported about $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, which, broken out by business segment, was composed of $11.4 billion from connectivity, $4.1 billion from space, and $3.2 billion from artificial intelligence. With its $1.8 trillion market valuation, SpaceX trades at about 100 times sales, which means expectations are high, and revenue growth is already assumed. Analysts at both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict that SpaceX's annual revenue will rise above $300 billion by 2030, which, yes, is only a few years from now. If these firms are even remotely correct, then SpaceX's annual revenue could grow at a staggering rate of about 77%. Morgan Stanley, as I mentioned above, goes even further: Analysts at the firm project annual revenue of $3.4 trillion in 2040, driven by astonishing growth in the business's AI segment. Here's where a tenfold gain in SpaceX could hypothetically come into play. If annual revenue were $3.6 trillion in 2040 -- slightly higher than Morgan Stanley's prediction -- then a price-to-sales ratio of 5 would put its market cap at about $18 trillion. That's about 10 times what it is today. That sounds incredible. Could SpaceX really be worth $18 trillion in 2040? If that sounds incredible, that's because it is. No company in the world is worth $18 trillion. Only one, Nvidia, has traded above a $5 trillion valuation, and only two, Amazon and Walmart, have trailing-12-month revenue topping $700 billion. SpaceX, however, is an extraordinary company, one that could break through barriers that once felt impenetrable. If Starlink becomes a dominant global communications network, if Starship radically lowers the cost of reaching orbit, if its AI segment grows into a multi-trillion-dollar business, SpaceX could eventually reach a point no company has reached before. Just be careful not to over-speculate. If any one of these three businesses performs poorly -- I'm looking at you, Grok -- the tenfold-return scenario could fall straight out of the sky. Indeed, never forget (for now) that this trillion-dollar company is generating less than $20 billion in revenue. Size your positions according to your risk tolerance, or wait for the valuation to come back down to earth before jumping in.
What Do SpaceX, AMD, and Palantir Have in Common?
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 5.43%), AMD (AMD 0.66%), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR 1.40%) may seem like an odd grouping of companies. But I have a good reason to consider them together: They're all incredibly overvalued. While that may sound like a shocking statement, after digging into each stock, that's the reality, and investors sitting on them may want to consider swapping them out of their portfolios for some more reasonably valued counterparts in their industries. So, just how pricey are they? Let's take a look. SpaceX Although SpaceX just went public a few weeks ago, I think it's one of the most overvalued stocks on the market. But that's only if you value the company based on what it has already done. The majority of SpaceX investors are buying into the stock because of what it could achieve under Elon Musk's leadership. That's a fair investment thesis, and it's what has allowed Tesla to remain one of the largest companies in the world despite its business struggles over the past few quarters. If that's your angle, I'm not going to argue, but it doesn't alter the fact that SpaceX's business as it stands now does not justify the company's valuation. SpaceX hasn't reported earnings results as a public company yet, so the only information investors have to go on is from its IPO presentation. According to that, in 2025, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue and reported negative net income. So if we value the company using 2025 sales, that would price SpaceX at 92 times sales. Even if SpaceX could snap its fingers and become instantly profitable with a 45% profit margin (its stated long-term goal), that would value the stock at 204 times earnings. That's an incredibly expensive stock, and with 2025 revenue growth coming in at only 33%, those numbers don't jibe. That's not to say SpaceX cannot overcome this with future growth, but even then, a lot of hoped-for growth is already priced into the stock, so I'm avoiding it. AMD AMD stock has risen by about 150% so far in 2026. While some of that gain was earned, the rest of it is a real head-scratcher. AMD is constantly compared to Nvidia, as these two compete against each other in many product lines, but the most important arena for both right now is the data center market. Nvidia's data center division is far larger and growing much faster than AMD's, which makes it odd that AMD is now valued at such a premium to Nvidia. NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts. With Nvidia's growth this fiscal year expected at 82% versus AMD's 43%, the justification for AMD's premium over Nvidia is a mystery. As a result, I think investors would be far better off selling AMD stock and scooping up Nvidia while it's as cheap as it is. Palantir Technologies Lastly, there is Palantir, which has been a popular AI stock pick over the past year. Its business continues to excel, and it grew by a strong 85% in the past quarter. But the problem is that a growth deceleration could be on the way. Wall Street estimates that Palantir's growth rate, which is projected to be 72% this year, will decline to about 45% next year. While that's still rapid, it's not enough to warrant the 90 times forward earnings valuation the stock carries. That's an expensive premium for any stock, even one growing as fast as it is today. If Palantir's growth rates start to decline at any time, the market could send its shares lower, as a ton of anticipated success is already priced into the stock. That makes it a bit of a precarious investment, and I think there are far better AI stocks to invest in than Palantir right now.
Prediction: 3 Reasons SpaceX Could Fall 50% Over the Next Year
When Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.08%) debuted last month, it became the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever. However, after a blistering start, the stock has fallen back down to earth and now trades around its IPO price. Let's look at three reasons I think the company (commonly called SpaceX) could lose half its value over the next year. 1. An extreme valuation It's not uncommon for IPOs to debut at frothy valuations, but SpaceX takes this to a whole other galaxy. The company has a nearly $2 trillion market cap, making it one of the 10 largest companies in the world. However, its revenue increased by only 33% to $18.7 billion last year while the company recorded an operating loss. The company is expected to see a meaningful acceleration in revenue this year, with Morgan Stanley projecting sales will climb to nearly $45 billion. Nonetheless, that still values SpaceX at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 40 times for what is ultimately a business with high capital expenditures that is likely to burn cash for about the next decade. In fact, Morgan Stanley does not project that it will become free cash flow positive until 2035. As such, not only does the stock carry an extreme valuation, but it will also need to take on debt or issue equity on top of that. 2. Unrealistic goals and timelines With not much to justify its current valuation in the form of revenue or profits, CEO Elon Musk instead has made a bevy of promises and predictions to get investors excited. Eventually, these will have to be realized, or investors may lose faith. However, Musk has a poor track record in this area, with The New York Times recently reporting that fewer than 20% of his past predictions were delivered on schedule. Among Musk's recent promises for SpaceX have been a data center in space by next year, the company generating $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, and launching five uncrewed ships to Mars later this year with a fleet of Tesla Optimus robots. All are unlikely to happen. The Mars Mission and orbital AI data centers both have big technical hurdles that still need to be overcome. For the Mars Mission, the biggest obstacle is refueling, as its largest rocket, Starship, uses up most of its fuel to reach low Earth orbit. Musk has a history of making promises about landing on Mars, but has consistently missed deadlines. Meanwhile, putting a data center in space would require the company to solve the issue of chips being affected by cosmic radiation and to devise a way to cool a system in the vacuum of space. Coming up with solutions for those obstacles will take time and won't happen in the next year. Meanwhile, $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 is an outlandish number that would need everything to go the company's way. Missing out on Musk's predictions could eventually weigh on the stock. 3. Lockup expirations Perhaps the biggest catalyst for SpaceX shares to plummet over the next year is that many more of them will hit the open market. At its IPO, fewer than 5% of its shares were available to be traded, but the number to hit the open market will expand exponentially over the next year as the company faces 15 lockup expirations over this period. The first lockup expiration will come later this month or in early August after the company's first earnings release, when insiders will be permitted to sell 911.5 million shares. That's more than the 555.6 million shares the company initially offered in its IPO. With a flood of new shares hitting the market over the next year, the likelihood of SpaceX missing deadlines, and an extreme valuation, the stock could easily see its price cut in half over the next year -- and it would still arguably be expensive.
Should You Buy SpaceX Stock Below $135 Per Share? Here's What History Says.
After a hot start following its IPO, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.08%), better known as SpaceX, has seen its stock price come back down to Earth. The price is now approaching its IPO price of $135 per share. Investors who couldn't get in on the IPO may be wondering whether to buy the stock if it dips below that number. Here's what history has to say. How well do IPOs hold up over the long run? Most IPO stocks see a pop on their first day of trading. Underwriters intentionally underprice offerings to ensure enough demand to fully allocate the stock offering and guarantee success for the company. Indeed, SpaceX closed its first day of trading about 19% above its IPO price, which is about average based on data dating back to 1960. But most investors aren't interested in SpaceX's short-term outcomes. The company's value is based on its potential to disrupt multiple industries over the long run. The stock should appeal to investors who believe in CEO Elon Musk's ability to build more efficient reusable rockets, expand its satellite constellation, and reshape broadband internet access and artificial intelligence (AI). So, looking at how IPOs usually hold up after at least three years of trading can provide valuable insight. For investors who buy just any new IPO as it comes to market, the long-term results aren't great. Even with a big first-day pop, the average IPO since 1980 (excluding the 1999-2000 dot-com bubble) produced worse returns than the overall market, according to data compiled by professor Jay Ritter. He found that all IPOs produce an average return of 44.2% from their IPO price over three years, but that trails the weighted-average market return by 1.6%. But tech stocks specifically do significantly better. Tech IPOs produced average three-year returns of 73.3%, massively outperforming the market by 25.8%. And if you dig a little bit deeper, big tech stocks with sales exceeding $100 million (adjusted for inflation) perform even better. These companies have delivered an average three-year return of 82.5% and outperformed the market by 43.1%. Even if they're unprofitable, they still produce excess returns of 41.7% on average, according to Ritter's data. In other words, history is on SpaceX's side as a large tech company making its public debut. Still, there are a few reasons to remain cautious about buying SpaceX, even at its IPO price. The SpaceX IPO is a special case SpaceX was the largest IPO in history, raising over $85 billion after underwriters exercised their option to buy additional shares. With a valuation of about $1.75 trillion, it's already a massive business. But that valuation puts its price-to-sales ratio above 90. And valuation still matters. According to a University of Florida 2026 study of IPOs, since 1980, only 14 other IPOs have had over $100 million in sales and a price-to-sales ratio above 40. The average three-year return from their IPO price was just 3.1%, trailing the market average by 15.4%. While it's a small sample size, there's a clear correlation between IPO price-to-sales valuation and returns. The lower the valuation, the better the returns. SpaceX has one of the highest price-to-sales ratios in the market. There's additional concern that SpaceX's stock price could be weighed down as lockup periods expire and early investors and employees can sell their shares. Interestingly, the same University of Florida study found that companies that float a smaller percentage of shares (SpaceX offered about 5% of the company's shares) end up outperforming companies that sell a larger portion of the equity at their IPO. That said, there's never been a company the size of SpaceX with so many shares locked up. That's a lot of capital for the market to absorb over the next six months or so. The truth of the matter is that SpaceX is unlike any IPO we've ever seen. Using historical averages to project SpaceX's future stock price can only go so far. The actual results will depend on the same thing that applies to every stock in the market, whether old or new. Will the company perform better than the market expects? If it does, the stock price could outperform the market average. At its current valuation, the market is setting a very high bar for SpaceX to exceed.
AST SpaceMobile vs. Rocket Lab: Which Stock Is The Superior SpaceX Competitor?
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 3.07%) made headlines when it raised $75 billion from investors in an initial public offering (nearly $86 billion if you include the investment bankers' overallotment). The stock rocketed higher after the IPO, but it has now fallen back down to the $135 IPO price. There are alternatives to consider, such as AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 17.03%) and Rocket Lab (RKLB 11.62%). Here's why you might want to buy one of these stocks over SpaceX. What does SpaceX do? The simple answer is SpaceX does a lot. For example, it builds and launches rockets. In fact, it appears well ahead of the competition in terms of technology, with rockets that return and land after use. Reusing launch rockets materially reduces launch costs. SpaceX also operates Starlink, a satellite-based telecommunication network. And it is building an artificial intelligence business. This is where things get interesting. SpaceX is a money-losing start-up, but its Starlink business is profitable. As the company clearly spelled out in its IPO prospectus, space launches and AI are burning through cash. You can avoid the money-losing businesses and just focus on the one segment of SpaceX that is profitable, the satellite-based broadband network, if you buy AST SpaceMobile. AST SpaceMobile: Not up to speed, but getting close AST SpaceMobile isn't profitable yet, either. However, it operates a satellite-based broadband network. And it is working to expand that network to cover the entire planet. It is getting close to a commercial launch of its network, but there's a vital difference between Starlink and AST SpaceMobile: Starlink's service is bespoke, while AST SpaceMobile is partnered with large cellphone service providers. That means it has a built-in customer base and is likely to hit the ground running when its service starts operating. It still has material spending needs as it works to broaden its geographic coverage, but it also has major telecom partners as supporters. If you are worried that Elon Musk is pulling SpaceX in too many directions, AST SpaceMobile would be a way to focus on the one part of that company that actually makes money today. That said, AST SpaceMobile likely won't be profitable for a while longer, given the huge cost of building and launching satellites. Rocket Lab: Everything but the AI One sizable drawback with AST SpaceMobile is that it doesn't launch its own satellites. It has to contract that out to other companies, which means, in some ways, it is at the mercy of its space-focused competitors. Rocket Lab currently builds and launches rockets and makes other space technology. However, it has agreed to buy Iridium Communications (IRDM 4.23%), which operates a space-based broadband network, in an $8 billion deal. That will, effectively, make Rocket Lab a fully integrated space company, just like SpaceX. But it will leave out the AI part of the business, which is currently eating up huge amounts of SpaceX cash. It isn't that Rocket Lab doesn't use AI; it does. But it uses AI internally to support its own business. Rocket Lab isn't profitable either, so it, too, is still a money-losing start-up. As with SpaceX and AST SpaceMobile, only the most aggressive investors should consider it. However, it lets you focus on space and avoid getting caught up in the AI hype running through the stock market today. What are you looking to own? When you step back and look at SpaceX, AST SpaceMobile, and Rocket Lab, there are a few big takeaways. First, the only way to get direct access to Elon Musk is to buy SpaceX. If that's what has you interested in space, then stick with the "original." Second, you can focus on the one part of SpaceX that's profitable if you buy AST SpaceMobile. AST SpaceMobile isn't profitable, as it is still building out its satellite business, but it has major partners to help it along. Third, if you want everything but SpaceX's AI business, your best option is Rocket Lab. The caveat here is that it still hasn't completed the purchase of Iridium. If you choose to go this route, you might want to hold off until the deal is consummated. One final consideration here: All three companies are still money-losing start-ups. Only the most aggressive growth investors should probably consider buying any of them. The space sector is still very early in its development, and it is far from clear which companies will be the long-term winners.
SpaceX vs. Rocket Lab: Which Is the Better Space Stock to Buy Right Now?
Space stocks are on many investors' minds these days, but going all-in on this sector right now comes with considerable risk, as most rocket stocks are volatile. Still, two stocks that are no doubt near the top of many investors' watch lists are Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 0.59%) and Rocket Lab (RKLB 3.36%). Here's which one looks like the better buy right now. The case for SpaceX What was once just a rocket company has morphed into an expanding technology behemoth with its sights set on both the space and artificial intelligence (AI) markets. SpaceX has highly ambitious goals for both, including colonizing Mars, launching orbital data centers, expanding its Starlink satellite internet business, and building what some analysts are calling a "sovereign AI" platform in which the company controls the AI model, chip designs, processor manufacturing, and everything in between. That's part of the appeal of SpaceX for some investors -- the company is trying big things, like developing its Starship rocket, which it says will reduce the costs of putting payloads into orbit by at least 90%, or deploying a constellation of data center satellites. Morningstar research puts the total addressable market for its Starlink connectivity business at $129 billion. And the company is making headway on some of its goals. It has 12 million Starlink internet subscribers and generated $1.9 billion in operating profit from that business in the most recent quarter. SpaceX is also making progress with its neocloud business, which leases data center capacity (Earth-bound, for now) to tech companies including Alphabet and Anthropic. That business has already signed more than $81 billion in contracts. And then there's the potential for SpaceX to merge with Elon Musk's other large company, Tesla. That could expand SpaceX's opportunities into the autonomous vehicle and humanoid robot markets, the latter of which could be worth $3 trillion by 2050, according to a Morgan Stanley forecast. The case for Rocket Lab There's some overlap between Rocket Lab and SpaceX, though Rocket Lab isn't building AI data centers or planning to merge with a humanoid robotics company (as of now). The company is instead mostly focused on launching rockets for its customers and on expanding its satellite communications network through its recently announced purchase of Iridium Communications. Rocket Lab has agreed to pay $8 billion for Iridium, and is expected to close on the deal next year, giving it 2.5 million satellite-based mobile subscribers. The service is mainly geared toward the private and government sectors, in contrast to Starlink, which caters more to customers who want at-home internet service. Iridium is profitable, with $114 million in net earnings last year, and the deal will help Rocket Lab expand its satellite communications network to better compete with SpaceX. But Rocket Lab's primary business is sending payloads into space, and in the first quarter, the company signed 31 new deals, selling more launches than it did in all of 2025. The company also has some major launch contracts already signed, including with the U.S. government to establish the satellite system for the proposed Golden Dome missile defense system. It also has contracts for missile tracking and military communications. Verdict: Rocket Lab is the better stock to buy right now While Rocket Lab isn't profitable, its loss of $0.07 per share in Q1 was an improvement from its loss of $0.12 per share in the prior-year quarter. Revenue is also growing at a healthy clip, rising 64% to $200 million. In contrast, SpaceX's sales rose just 15% in Q1 to $4.7 billion, and the company's loss of $3.29 per share was dramatically worse than its $0.41 per share loss in the year-ago quarter. SpaceX's massive losses have been fueled by sharp increases in its capital expenditures, which reached $10 billion in Q1 2026 alone, compared to $27 billion for all of 2025. That heavy spending should give investors pause, and so should the lofty valuation of its stock. SpaceX trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of about 94 compared to Rocket Lab's P/S ratio of 66. While neither stock is cheap, SpaceX's shares trade at a much higher premium even as the company ramps up spending and its losses widen. All of which means that Rocket Lab looks like the better space stock to buy right now.
Is SpaceX Planning to Make a Smartphone to Rival the iPhone?
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.24%), also known as just SpaceX, is a company that could disrupt many different industries, including space travel and telecom. But one that investors may not have considered is the smartphone market. While its Starlink service offers mobile internet for smartphones, CEO Elon Musk has also hinted that entering the smartphone market may be a possibility. The company reportedly has a prototype for a device that's similar to an iPhone According to a recent report from the Wall Street Journal, SpaceX has been working on a device that has a slimmer design than Apple's iPhone. While it's designed to help people interact with artificial intelligence (AI), its capabilities could certainly extend beyond that, as it's expected to use a Snapdragon chipset from Qualcomm. The device is nowhere near launching, and there is no certainty that it will even come to market. But with Musk being critical of Apple's restrictive app store policies, it also wouldn't be surprising if he were to want to bring his own smartphone or similar device to market, one that could rival Apple's popular devices. He has suggested in the past that while he isn't thrilled with the idea of doing so, he may feel compelled. "The idea of making a phone makes me want to die. But if we have to make a phone, we will. But we will aspire not to make a phone." Is SpaceX the ultimate growth stock to own? One of the most compelling reasons to invest in SpaceX despite its high valuation is that it has some tremendous growth opportunities. Not only can its reusable rockets revolutionize space travel, but its Starlink business could make it a big player in the telecom sector. And its biggest opportunities are in artificial intelligence (AI), with the company planning to put data centers into space. SpaceX arguably already has too many places to spend and invest in as it is. A smartphone may be a possibility down the road, but I wouldn't expect that to be a focus for the business at this stage. SpaceX has already been incurring billions in losses, and investing in too many different areas at once could prove to be costly and risky. While making risky investments can work for large tech companies with massive resources and strong financials, that strategy may not be as sound for a company such as SpaceX, which still needs to find its way out of the red. SpaceX may be an exciting stock to own, but it's also a highly risky one, and there are arguably far better growth stocks out there for investors that offer a better mix of growth and safety.
With a Nearly 7% Dividend Yield, Is Verizon Stock a Buy on SpaceX Fears?
Mobile operator Verizon (VZ 0.49%) has seen its shares sell off in the wake of the SpaceX (SPCX 2.24%) IPO, lifting Verizon's dividend yield to 6.7%. The sell-off looks overdone in my view, making the stock an attractive buy at current levels. Investors worry that SpaceX will use its leadership in satellite internet to challenge traditional mobile carriers like Verizon. However, there are multiple hurdles to this happening. Two of the biggest are technology constraints and regulatory issues. A look at the potential threat Cellular networks, like Verizon's, use dense, localized cell towers and small cell antennas that reuse spectrum thousands of times within a single city. Low-earth-orbit (LEO) satellites like those SpaceX deploys, on the other hand, project massive beams over large areas. If millions of people in a dense city or suburb tried to stream video via direct-to-cell satellite at the same time, capacity would collapse. Meanwhile, modern green building initiatives, such as reinforced concrete, steel, and low-e glass used in office buildings, block satellite signals. Even SpaceX's VP for satellite engineering, Michael Nicolls, stated this at the company's Mobile World Conference: "Satellite is complementary to terrestrial networks; it cannot provide the data density that terrestrial networks have. But it can augment terrestrial networks in areas where they cannot reach. Or when terrestrial networks need additional capacity." Meanwhile, after discussing the potential for SpaceX to offer a mobile network with a former FCC attorney, BNP Paribas analyst Sam McHugh concluded there were few ways for SpaceX to enter the mobile space unless those companies struck a deal with SpaceX. He noted that current FCC rules prevent Elon Musk's company from requiring carriers to enter wholesale network agreements or to provide roaming access. While there is a risk SpaceX gets into space by acquiring a carrier like T-Mobile, the three big carriers did form a joint venture to help address coverage gaps in the U.S. by pooling spectrum, looking to fend off any risk from satellite companies. Bundling opportunity ahead Putting aside SpaceX's concerns, Verizon has a big opportunity ahead as it starts to cross-sell and bundle wireless and broadband services to the customers it gained when it acquired Frontier Communications earlier this year. This should be a nice subscriber and revenue growth driver, as only about 20% of its customers have both wireless and broadband subscriptions. Meanwhile, Verizon's dividend is safe and well covered, with the company having low leverage and a dividend (around $12 billion projected this year) that is easily covered by its free cash flow ($21.5 billion forecast). With a nearly 7% yield and a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.6 based on 2026 earnings estimates, I think this dividend stock looks like a buy on its recent price dip.
Is SpaceX Stock a Millionaire Maker? There Are 2 Things That Will Define That Answer.
There's a strong case to be made that Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 2.20%), better known as SpaceX, is the most hyped initial public offering (IPO) of all time. It raised a record $75 billion during its IPO, hitting the market with an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion -- making it one of the world's most valuable companies. There are tons of people excited about SpaceX as a company, but there are also tons of people who are only excited about the stock and how much money it could potentially make them. They see CEO Elon Musk as a visionary who made plenty of millionaires through Tesla (TSLA +0.39%) and wonder if SpaceX is on that same path. Two questions that may guide the answer Two key factors will heavily influence whether or not a stock can be a millionaire maker: How much someone can initially invest and how much time they have to stay invested in the stock. If you have $800,000 to invest in a stock, it's much easier to hit the million-dollar mark, since the investment only needs to grow 25%, compared with having $100,000 to invest and needing it to grow tenfold. The same goes for timing. If you have $100,000 to invest and 20 years on your side, the chances of hitting the million-dollar mark are much higher than if you were trying to accomplish it in five years. So, which is most important in SpaceX's case? The numbers don't currently work in SpaceX's favor The average investor is much more likely to have 20 years to invest than to have hundreds of thousands to invest in a lump sum. So, for the sake of this example, we'll assume someone has $50,000 to invest in SpaceX right now (which is still a lot, to be fair), meaning their investment would need to grow by 20x to reach $1 million. At the time of this writing, SpaceX is valued at $1.82 trillion, so increasing its value by 20x would put it at $36.4 trillion. Some Wall Street analysts have said they see SpaceX's valuation reaching the $30 trillion ballpark in the next 15 to 20 years, so it's not impossible by any means. However, it's very unlikely, in my opinion. SpaceX's initial large valuation works against it. This isn't a situation like Tesla, whose initial valuation was $1.7 billion when it went public in June 2010. It's much easier to increase 20x in valuation to reach $34 billion from there than it is when you're starting from nearly $2 trillion. A $5,000 investment in Tesla during its IPO would be worth over $1.2 million today -- with most gains coming after 2020 -- but I don't see that happening with SpaceX. TSLA data by YCharts SpaceX needs to deliver on ambitious projects I do not doubt that SpaceX will eventually make some retail investors millionaires (it has already made plenty of private investors millionaires). Some people have large lump sums to invest, and others realistically have at least 30 years of investing ahead of them to take advantage of compounding growth. However, I don't believe it will happen for the average investor anytime in the next decade or so. SpaceX's business is solid right now, as the largest space launch company, owner of lucrative AI infrastructure, and with a flourishing Starlink business, but that's not what will make the average investor a millionaire. It's going to take delivering on very ambitious projects, such as space data centers, and growing into what SpaceX has predicted is the largest total addressable market in history ($28.5 trillion). Of course, we can never predict how the stock market will perform, and anything is possible, but realistically, investors are better off looking elsewhere for a millionaire-maker stock. And it's likely not one that's currently valued in the trillions.
How to Spot a Stock Market Bubble 101: Raymond James Just Placed an $800 Price Target on SpaceX, Valuing Elon Musk's Company at $10.5 Trillion
One month ago, on June 12, Elon Musk's artificial intelligence (AI) and space economy conglomerate, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) (SPCX 4.75%), rewrote history with its initial public offering (IPO). The $85.7 billion raised, including the underwriters' overallotment, nearly tripled the previous IPO record holder, Saudi Aramco. But in kicking off IPO mania -- large language model developers Anthropic and OpenAI are expected to follow in SpaceX's footsteps -- SpaceX may also be fueling the final stages of an AI bubble that history suggests is waiting to pop. Rarely are stock market bubble warning signs as glaring as Raymond James Financial's price target assigned to SpaceX. Wall Street's high-water price target foresees SpaceX reaching $800 in 2031 Given that 21 underwriters helped bring SpaceX public and received shares for doing so, it should come as no surprise that Wall Street analysts have, as a whole, presented an overwhelmingly positive outlook for the company. But Raymond James Financial analyst Brian Gesuale is a true outlier. His $800 price target by 2031 implies 451% upside, based on where SpaceX's shares ended on July 10, and assumes a valuation of roughly $10.5 trillion. For context, this would be more than double Nvidia's current market cap. Gesuale foresees SpaceX's full-year sales scaling from an estimated $38.5 billion in 2026 to approximately $837 billion by 2031. More importantly, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are projected to catapult from $17.7 billion in 2026 to $696 billion by 2031. While there's no question that AI and the space economy are two of the hottest addressable opportunities on Wall Street, several headwinds suggest Gesuale's pie-in-the-sky price target is pure fiction and the sign of an end-stage bubble that's about to burst. SpaceX spotlights everything wrong with Wall Street Although the stock market is a long-term wealth-creating machine, it's prone to occasional bubble-bursting events. SpaceX's current $1.91 trillion valuation and Raymond James' $800 price target for the company spotlight everything that's wrong with Wall Street over the short term. For starters, SpaceX hasn't demonstrated that its operating model is sustainable. While satellite-based broadband services provider Starlink is profitable, AI start-up xAI -- the segment responsible for the lion's share of SpaceX's $28.5 trillion addressable market -- is burning cash as Musk's company chases AI compute capacity. Elon Musk also has a terrible track record of fulfilling lofty promises and innovative expectations. As CEO of Tesla, Musk proclaimed that 1 million robotaxis would be on public roads by the end of 2020, which never happened. He's also assured investors that Level 5 full self-driving is "one year away" annually for more than a decade. Musk continually overpromises and underdelivers. SpaceX is likely to be haunted by historical precedent, as well. No company at the forefront of a game-changing technology has sustained a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio above 30 for any extended period. SpaceX is trading at roughly 50 times Gesuale's forecast sales for this year. Lastly, every game-changing technology for more than three decades has navigated an early stage bubble-bursting event. These bubbles have formed because investors constantly overestimate the optimization timeline of innovations. It'll likely be years before SpaceX's solutions are optimized, making Raymond James' high-water price target highly unlikely.
Here's How Big Wall Street Expects SpaceX's Business to Get in 5 Years
When a company's valuation is high and wildly above what its fundamentals justify, that's a clear sign that expectations are high. While that can be an encouraging sign that there is a ton of growth likely ahead for the business, it also signifies risk, because if it falls short and the growth story unravels, the stock could be poised for a significant sell-off. One company whose valuation hinges on its growth story is Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.75%), which is often referred to as just SpaceX. Its market cap has been hovering around $2 trillion since its shares went public about a month ago. It has some tremendous growth opportunities, and here's just how big analysts believe the business will get in five years. SpaceX's revenue could top $565 billion by 2031 In recent years, there has been some solid growth, but nothing like what analysts expect from the company in the future. From $10.4 billion in revenue in 2023, the company's top line would rise by 35% to just over $14 billion in 2024, and then by another 33% in 2025, totaling $18.7 billion last year. That's a strong growth rate, but if analysts are right, then the company's top line could be about to take off, significantly. The bull case around SpaceX centers around its growth potential. Today, it trades at around 100 times its trailing revenue, but if the business gets much larger in the future, then its high valuation may be much more tenable. By 2031, Wall Street analysts project that its revenue will soar to $565 billion -- that's more than 30 times what it achieved this past year. Those kinds of numbers would make it among the largest companies in terms of revenue. E-commerce giant Amazon is the leader today, with its revenue totaling $743 billion over its past four quarters. Expectations are high, but so too is the risk SpaceX has some mammoth opportunities in artificial intelligence, space, and telecom. The problem, however, is that kind of significant growth means expectations are going to be through the roof for SpaceX. Not only will the company likely need to ramp up spending at a time when investors are growing more concerned about high capital expenditures, but it will also need to execute and prove that it's making the most of those investments. It's a tall task, to say the least. Given that the stock isn't cheap, investors who buy it at its current levels aren't leaving themselves with any margin for error. While SpaceX's business may do well and achieve its lofty expectations, there's also a strong chance it falls well short of them, which is why taking a wait-and-see approach with the space stock may be the safest option right now.
Prediction: $25,000 Invested in SpaceX Today Will Be Worth This Much by 2050
Let's get right to it: A $25,000 investment in Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.75%) stock today could be worth over $100,000 by 2050 if revenue grows 19% annually. By the same token, the same investment in SpaceX is more likely to be worth about $28,000 by 2050 if revenue grows more moderately -- albeit still bullish -- at a rate of 13% annually. Let's unpack these predictions. First, keep in mind that SpaceX carried a roughly $1.8 trillion valuation at its initial public offering (IPO), despite reporting about $19 billion in 2025 revenue. At the time of its IPO, the stock was already trading close to 100 times annual sales -- a figure that hasn't changed much, even after the stock has plummeted over 30% from its all-time high. Under the bullish scenario, SpaceX would need to quadruple by 2050 for a $25,000 investment to hit $100,000 or more, which would imply a $7 trillion market cap. If we value that version of SpaceX at a price-to-sales ratio of about 5, then the space company would need to generate about $1.5 trillion in annual sales by that year, or almost 19% revenue growth annually. That's not technically impossible, but it would also mean SpaceX has become the most dominant launch, satellite, and artificial intelligence (AI) company in the world. In short, very little has to go wrong, and if it does, it can't go wrong for long. Under a less bullish scenario, SpaceX's valuation would rise only modestly, from about $1.8 trillion to about $2 trillion by 2050. If, again, we assume a price-to-sales ratio of 5, SpaceX would generate about $400 billion in 2050 sales, which implies compound annual revenue growth of about 13% for the next 25 years. That's still impressive growth, even if the concomitant growth in the stock is only modest. These are, of course, my own figures, but they drive home the point that, however you slice it, SpaceX stock is still very pricy right now. Even as the stock nears its IPO price of $135, I think long-term investors should continue to wait. SpaceX may become one of the most important companies in the world, but at today's valuation, much of that success appears already priced in.
How Low Can SpaceX Stock Go?
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) went public on June 12. Its stock promptly soared to a peak of $225, giving the company a whopping $2.9 trillion market capitalization, but it has since plummeted by 35% to close at $145 on Friday, July 10. SpaceX has a unique business that spans space transportation, satellite internet connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, and its revenue is forecast to grow rapidly over the next couple of years. However, its stock remains extremely expensive even after its recent decline, which could open the door to more losses for investors. How low can SpaceX stock go? SpaceX has a significant opportunity ahead Before we dive into SpaceX's hefty valuation and the math behind a potential decline in its stock, let's examine the company's business, which does have significant growth potential. It's divided into three core segments: SpaceX already accounts for over 80% of the world's mass to orbit, so it's launching more commercial payloads than any other company or organization on the planet. Its market share will only grow once its Starship rocket enters regular service, because its 100-ton payload capacity is four times that of the Falcon 9 rocket, which completes most trips today. The connectivity business is also set to receive a massive boost, as SpaceX will start launching its V3 satellites later this year, which offer a whopping 10 times the bandwidth of the current V2 satellites. Moreover, Starship will launch 60 V3 satellites into orbit per trip, whereas Falcon 9 is only capable of sending 27 at a time. Moving on to the AI segment, most of its revenue comes from Grok subscriptions and renting data center capacity to other companies. When SpaceX bought xAI, it took ownership of data centers like Colossus and Colossus II, which are fitted with hundreds of thousands of specialized AI chips from suppliers like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices. SpaceX eventually wants to send AI computing clusters into space, where they will run on solar power and won't need complex cooling systems. This infrastructure would send data back to Earth via Starlink satellites, giving SpaceX a huge advantage over any potential competitors entering this industry. Although Elon Musk founded SpaceX to focus on space exploration and transportation, the company values its opportunity in this segment at just $370 billion. That pales in comparison to the potential $1.6 trillion addressable market in the connectivity business, and the staggering $26.5 trillion opportunity in the AI infrastructure business. SpaceX stock is trading at a sky-high premium to the broader market SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in total revenue during 2025, which was up 33% from the prior year. This was the composition: Data source: SpaceX. While connectivity was the largest and fastest-growing segment last year, that looks set to change. SpaceX recently agreed to rent up to $1.25 billion in AI computing capacity per month to Anthropic, in addition to another $920 million per month to Alphabet, and $150 million per month to Reflection AI. These deals could amount to tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue over the next few years. In fact, Wall Street's average forecast (provided by Yahoo! Finance) suggests SpaceX could more than double its revenue to $38.8 billion in 2026 and then generate $72.4 billion in revenue in 2027. That brings me to its valuation. Based on SpaceX's trailing 12-month revenue and its $1.91 trillion market capitalization, its stock is trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 98.9, making it 15 times as expensive as the Nasdaq-100 index, which has a P/S ratio of just 6.4. In other words, SpaceX is wildly overvalued relative to its big-tech peers. Even if we value SpaceX stock using Wall Street's 2027 revenue forecast, its forward P/S ratio is still a hefty 26.3. I'm not predicting this will happen, but the stock would have to plummet by 76% over the next 18 months just to trade in line with the current P/S ratio of the Nasdaq-100 index. In my opinion, the math suggests SpaceX stock will have a tough time generating upside for the foreseeable future, and I won't be surprised to see a decline of 50% (or more), particularly if the company fails to meet Wall Street's revenue expectations.
History Says It's Time to Buy SpaceX Stock Before It's Too Late
After an incredible post-IPO performance, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) stock has gradually returned to earth. SpaceX officially priced its June 12 IPO at $135 per share and opened at $150 per share. Shares reached their all-time high of $225.64 three days later. After a steep correction, the stock is now hovering around $145. The space stock is now priced just 7% above its original IPO price, and under the price at which it began trading. Newly published historical data, however, suggest there is more upside to come. History says SpaceX stock is a buy at $145 per share Jay Ritter of the Warrington College of Business at the University of Florida has been tracking the performance of IPO stocks for years. On July 7, Ritter released a new report with fully updated statistics. Diving into the data paints an optimistic picture for SpaceX stock today. From 1980 to 2024, Ritter documented 9,253 IPOs. Over that time, the average IPO stock returned 19.1% over a three-year period. The data is already looking good for SpaceX stock. While history doesn't suggest huge returns for the stock over the next three years, the returns are nonetheless expected to be positive. Breaking down the data even further improves SpaceX's prospects. When including only IPO stocks with trailing annual sales of at least $500 million -- a refinement that narrows the universe down to just 1,500 stocks -- the average three-year return improves to 31.8%. When including only IPO stocks with trailing sales of at least $1 billion, the prospects improve even further. These stocks -- which total 866 in all -- average 32.4% returns over their first three years of trading. To be clear, there's no telling exactly where SpaceX stock will head from here. Even if shares have plenty of upside at today's prices relative to historical IPO performances, there is a wide range of outcomes for any one stock. And there are plenty of reasons to believe SpaceX stock is overvalued, even following the correction. Before the June 12 IPO, analysts at the research firm Morningstar valued SpaceX at $63, representing a 53% discount to its IPO price. "Only the most optimistic Moonshot scenario, which requires a rapidly reusable Starship and commercially competitive orbital data centers, approaches the IPO price. The IPO price implies the Moonshot scenario is highly likely, but we think the outlook is very uncertain." I mostly agree with Morningstar's caution. But SpaceX is a unique business with difficult-to-quantify opportunities ahead. Ark Invest, for example, sees SpaceX generating $300 billion in annual revenue by 2030 through the monetization of orbital data centers. If that happens, SpaceX could easily be valued well above $2 trillion. At the end of the day, investors must acquaint themselves with SpaceX's business prospects and current valuation, and form their own opinion of the company's risk-and-reward dynamic.
This Vanguard ETF Would Have Quadrupled Your Money Over the Last Decade. History Says Now Is a Smart Time to Invest. (It's Likely to Outperform SpaceX, Too.)
We're all looking for solid investments for our portfolios, right? It's easy to focus on big-name high-flying stocks, such as Nvidia or Micron Technology. But there's also some risk there, as many highfliers end up overvalued and poised to fall extra-hard in a market pullback. (And a market pullback is far from unlikely these days.) So permit me to suggest a terrific investment that you might not have taken seriously enough: a simple, low-fee S&P 500 index fund. A splendid example is the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO +0.46%). It's an exchange-traded fund (ETF) -- a fund that trades like a stock. Meet the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF Like any good S&P 500 index fund, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF features low fees. While some actively managed mutual funds might charge you 1% or more of your assets each year, this fund charges 0.03% -- or just $3 annually for every $10,000 you have invested in it. It tracks the S&P 500, of course -- an index of roughly 500 of the biggest stocks in America. Together, they make up about 80% of the value of the entire U.S. stock market, which is why the S&P 500 is often used as a proxy for the total U.S. stock market. Together, the index's recent top 10 components make up about 38% of the index's value by weight. Here they are as of July 9: Data source: Slickcharts.com, as of July 9, 2026. Like many indexes, the S&P 500 is market-cap-weighted, with bigger companies wielding more influence than smaller ones. The fund has a solid record. Check out its average annual return over the last three, five, and 10 years (as reported by Morningstar on July 9): * Last three years: 21.26% * Last five years: 13.11% * Last 10 years: 15.36% Over the last decade, these compounded annual returns would have quadrupled your money. Why invest in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF? Here are several reasons to invest: * It's a good time to do so (there's rarely a bad time, if you're a long-term investor). * It makes investing easy, plopping you into roughly 80% of the U.S. stock market with one "buy" order. * It offers diversification -- when one company or industry falls, the others can offset that to some degree. For greater diversification, check out the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP +0.38%), which weights each of the 500 companies in the index equally. * It's likely to outperform many growth stocks, especially overvalued ones -- including, arguably, Space Exploration Technologies, also known as SpaceX. Consider, for example, that the S&P 500's price-to-sales ratio was recently 3.7, while SpaceX's was 74.7. The S&P 500 has a solid track record, averaging annual gains of close to 10% over many decades, but many growth stocks are far less proven. * The index is designed to perform well, as lagging components are regularly removed to make way for up-and-coming companies. Take a closer look at this ETF to see if it's a good fit for your needs.
J.P. Morgan Called a Potential Elon Musk SpaceX-Tesla Merger "Strategically Coherent"
Now that Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) trades publicly, Wall Street has started hunting for the next best thing: stocks that can ride its coattails. The most eye-catching call came from J.P. Morgan, whose analysts described a possible combination of SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA +0.22%) as "strategically coherent on paper." That single phrase has revived a long-running fantasy among investors, and it's worth understanding what the analyst company actually means before treating any of these names as a back door into SpaceX. Why J.P. Morgan sees logic in a Tesla-SpaceX tie-up J.P. Morgan's argument is that Musk's companies already share engineering talent, an artificial intelligence ambition, and a common leader, so uniting them could let him run one integrated vision across cars, robots, energy, and space. The analysts also noted that SpaceX's blockbuster public debut gives Musk valuable stock to make a deal, and that his growing voting control at Tesla makes him better positioned to push one through. J.P. Morgan was careful, though, and so am I. It flagged real obstacles: securing regulatory approvals across many countries, especially China, where Tesla builds cars; the awkward gap between Musk's near-total control of SpaceX and his smaller stake in Tesla; and the likelihood that any deal would look like SpaceX swallowing Tesla rather than a merger of equals. "Coherent on paper" is a long way from "likely to happen." The other SpaceX-by-association plays Tesla isn't the only name catching the halo. Deutsche Bank started coverage of EchoStar (ECHO 2.00%) with a buy rating, framing it as a cheaper way to own SpaceX. EchoStar holds roughly $11 billion of SpaceX shares it received for handing over wireless spectrum, so the bank argues you're effectively buying SpaceX at a discount and getting EchoStar's other assets thrown in. The catch is serious: EchoStar's pay-TV subsidiary recently filed for bankruptcy, and the stock has tumbled. Then there's Charter Communications (CHTR 2.69%), which, according to Bloomberg, has held talks with SpaceX about a consumer mobile phone service that would route some traffic through Charter's network. It's a genuine strategic fit, but it's only talk for now. Here's my honest read. Buying a stock because it's linked to a hot company is a strategy built on hope, not fundamentals, and all three of these names are down this year for reasons of their own. A merger that's merely "coherent on paper," a spectrum stake wrapped around a bankruptcy, and a rumored partnership are not the same as durable businesses. If you like Tesla, EchoStar, or Charter, buy them for what they do today, and treat any SpaceX connection as a bonus rather than the thesis.
Prediction: SpaceX Shares Can Reach $220 by End of 2026
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) has become one of the market's most closely watched stocks after its rapid entry into the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7. Shares are trading close to $149 (as of July 10), still above its $135 IPO price, but nearly 34% below its post-IPO high of $225.60. This share price pullback has not ended investor interest in SpaceX, but it has changed the debate. Investors are now weighing the company's artificial intelligence (AI) compute opportunity, Starlink satellite internet network's room to expand in satellite communications, and progress on the next-generation reusable rocket system, Starship, as they assess where the stock could trade by the end of 2026. SpaceX has growth drivers for its revenue SpaceX is already demonstrating impressive financial momentum. Revenue rose 33% year over year to $18.7 billion in 2025. But the company still reported a net loss of $4.9 billion after merging with money-losing xAI. Starlink remains the key growth engine, supported by roughly 10.3 million users and 9,600 satellites. But AI infrastructure is also becoming the next major catalyst. Alphabet has agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million per month from October 2026 through June 2029 for access to about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs and related computing resources. Anthropic has also signed a major compute-access deal with SpaceX, securing use of SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center. Reuters reported that SpaceX's two deals are worth about $26 billion annually if fully realized. Although not all the AI revenue from these deals is expected to materialize in 2026, it still gives investors a reason to value SpaceX based on future revenue potential rather than solely on 2025 sales. SpaceX's valuation will fall, but remain expensive At the end of 2026, investors will likely be looking toward SpaceX's expected 2027 revenue, since the stock's valuation depends on how quickly Starlink, AI compute, and Starship can expand the company's sales base. SpaceX's market capitalization is close to $2 trillion. Analysts' 2026 revenue estimates range from $34.3 billion on the low end to $43.2 billion on the high end, with a base case estimate of about $38.9 billion. Hence, SpaceX is already trading at roughly 51.4 times base case 2026 sales. By the end of 2026, that multiple will most likely compress, as post-IPO excitement usually cools and investors demand evidence of execution. But it also does not need to collapse if SpaceX continues to show progress in Starlink, AI infrastructure, and Starship. A reasonable base-case assumption is that SpaceX's sales multiple compresses by about 20% to 25% from today's 51.4x 2026 sales multiple. That gives a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple range of roughly 38.5 to 41 times expected 2027 sales. Analysts expect SpaceX's 2027 revenue to range from $54.8 billion to $85 billion, with an average estimate of $72.4 billion. Applying a forward sales multiple of 38.5 to 41 times to the 2027 base case revenue estimate yields an implied market capitalization of about $2.79 trillion to $2.97 trillion. Using roughly 13.1 billion shares outstanding, that points to a share price in the range of $213 to $227 at the end of 2026. Hence, $220 is a reasonable base case estimate. It assumes that while SpaceX's valuation multiple compresses, revenue growth offsets the pressure enough to lift the share price.
Elon Musk's SpaceX Just Joined the Nasdaq-100. Now What?
Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX 4.51%) entered the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7, and investors will hope it provides additional support for an already successful initial public offering (IPO). But what does the index inclusion really mean, and what can SpaceX investors expect in the future? Where next for SpaceX? The Nasdaq-100 index inclusion does matter. It triggers forced passive buying of the stock by funds (including exchange-traded funds, or ETFs) that track the Nasdaq-100 index. In addition, many actively managed funds may invest only in stocks listed in the Nasdaq-100 index, and others may require holdings in SpaceX stock to meet their fund's weighting requirements. All of this is likely to provide some support for the share price. While this will occur, investors also need to be mindful of periodic bouts of selling as SpaceX's lock-up expiry dates approach. Digging into the company's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings makes it clear that the potential for periodic supply hitting the market is real. For reference, around 639 million shares were sold at IPO, and SpaceX has 13.17 billion shares outstanding. Data source: Space Exploration Technologies SEC filings. As you can see, significantly more shares could come to market than were sold at IPO, and that could prove more impactful than the Nasdaq-100 listing.
