News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
Anthropic (Claude) May Be the Only $1 Trillion IPO Worth Buying
With SpaceX potentially just days away from going public, I think many investors expected OpenAI, the parent company of ChatGPT, to be the next trillion-dollar initial public offering (IPO). However, Anthropic, the parent company of Claude, has beaten them to the punch. The company announced on June 1 that it has confidentially filed to go public with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue " This filing allows the company to go public following the SEC's review, although Anthropic made it clear that whether it actually follows through with an IPO will depend on market conditions and other factors. While many details about the company remain unknown, Anthropic could end up being the only $1 trillion IPO worth buying. These trillion-dollar IPOs will launch with sky-high valuations Interestingly, Anthropic is planning an IPO after just announcing a $65 billion series H private funding round at a post-money valuation of $965 billion. Investors might have assumed that would give the company some runway, but perhaps the company wants to take advantage of strong market conditions for AI companies to raise more money at a higher valuation. Image source: Getty Images. The $965 billion valuation officially eclipsed OpenAI, which earlier this year closed a $122 billion private funding round at an $852 billion valuation. SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI all promise to be game-changing companies and already have begun to change the game to an extent. But Anthropic could offer investors a more realistic valuation. SpaceX is not yet profitable and grew revenue 33% year over year in 2025 -- a massive increase for any company, but still perhaps slower than investors are looking for. With nearly $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, SpaceX, at a $1.8 trillion valuation, would be asking for a trailing-12-month revenue multiple of 100x. Now, of course, these companies aren't going to be valued on fundamentals and could define new sectors with tremendous runways. The problem is that these valuations are baking in an incredible amount of success and may not account for roadblocks that could arise. In March, OpenAI reportedly hit a $25 billion annualized revenue run rate. Reports also suggest that the company will seek an IPO valuation of $1 trillion or more. If this were to be the case, it would be asking for a 40x forward revenue multiple because revenue run rate essentially annualizes one month's number. However, media reports earlier this year suggested that the company has been struggling to hit internal revenue targets. Furthermore, the company reportedly has $600 billion of data center commitments by 2030. Finally, as recently as April, media outlets reported that OpenAI is not expected to turn a profit until at least 2030. Anthropic is further along Anthropic has come a long way since the release of AI chatbots in 2022. OpenAI once looked like it had a lead that it would never surrender. However, Anthropic has now surpassed it in terms of valuation. Tools like Claude Code have resonated incredibly well, and enterprises appear to view Anthropic as the better large language model (LLM) company. The company also appears to have been more conservative with spending commitments. CEO Dario Amodei said on a podcast in February, "I think it is true we're spending somewhat less than some of the other players." Other media outlets have reported that the company expects to hit a nearly $50 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of June, up from $30 billion in April, and turn an operating profit in the current quarter. That would be quite impressive. If Anthropic targeted a $1 trillion valuation in an IPO, it would only be asking investors for a 20x forward revenue multiple, half of what OpenAI would potentially request. The path to profitability also carries significant sway. Now, it's hard to know exactly what kind of valuation Anthropic will target, given its success. People betting on Polymarket, however, are placing a 53% chance (as of June 3) that the stock closes its first day of trading at a market cap over $1.8 trillion. This isn't necessarily the IPO valuation Anthropic is looking for, but what the market would assign it after having its first chance to buy the stock. Obviously, there is still a lot we don't know, and investors will want to review the company's registration statement before making a determination. But right now, there is a chance Anthropic goes public at a valuation much more reasonable than SpaceX or OpenAI's. Where to invest $1,000 right now When our analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. 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Anthropic (Claude) May Be the Only $1 Trillion IPO Worth Buying
With SpaceX potentially just days away from going public, I think many investors expected OpenAI, the parent company of ChatGPT, to be the next trillion-dollar initial public offering (IPO). However, Anthropic, the parent company of Claude, has beaten them to the punch. The company announced on June 1 that it has confidentially filed to go public with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This filing allows the company to go public following the SEC's review, although Anthropic made it clear that whether it actually follows through with an IPO will depend on market conditions and other factors. While many details about the company remain unknown, Anthropic could end up being the only $1 trillion IPO worth buying. These trillion-dollar IPOs will launch with sky-high valuations Interestingly, Anthropic is planning an IPO after just announcing a $65 billion series H private funding round at a post-money valuation of $965 billion. Investors might have assumed that would give the company some runway, but perhaps the company wants to take advantage of strong market conditions for AI companies to raise more money at a higher valuation. The $965 billion valuation officially eclipsed OpenAI, which earlier this year closed a $122 billion private funding round at an $852 billion valuation. SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI all promise to be game-changing companies and already have begun to change the game to an extent. But Anthropic could offer investors a more realistic valuation. SpaceX is not yet profitable and grew revenue 33% year over year in 2025 -- a massive increase for any company, but still perhaps slower than investors are looking for. With nearly $18.7 billion of revenue in 2025, SpaceX, at a $1.8 trillion valuation, would be asking for a trailing-12-month revenue multiple of 100x. Now, of course, these companies aren't going to be valued on fundamentals and could define new sectors with tremendous runways. The problem is that these valuations are baking in an incredible amount of success and may not account for roadblocks that could arise. In March, OpenAI reportedly hit a $25 billion annualized revenue run rate. Reports also suggest that the company will seek an IPO valuation of $1 trillion or more. If this were to be the case, it would be asking for a 40x forward revenue multiple because revenue run rate essentially annualizes one month's number. However, media reports earlier this year suggested that the company has been struggling to hit internal revenue targets. Furthermore, the company reportedly has $600 billion of data center commitments by 2030. Finally, as recently as April, media outlets reported that OpenAI is not expected to turn a profit until at least 2030. Anthropic is further along Anthropic has come a long way since the release of AI chatbots in 2022. OpenAI once looked like it had a lead that it would never surrender. However, Anthropic has now surpassed it in terms of valuation. Tools like Claude Code have resonated incredibly well, and enterprises appear to view Anthropic as the better large language model (LLM) company. The company also appears to have been more conservative with spending commitments. CEO Dario Amodei said on a podcast in February, "I think it is true we're spending somewhat less than some of the other players." Other media outlets have reported that the company expects to hit a nearly $50 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of June, up from $30 billion in April, and turn an operating profit in the current quarter. That would be quite impressive. If Anthropic targeted a $1 trillion valuation in an IPO, it would only be asking investors for a 20x forward revenue multiple, half of what OpenAI would potentially request. The path to profitability also carries significant sway. Now, it's hard to know exactly what kind of valuation Anthropic will target, given its success. People betting on Polymarket, however, are placing a 53% chance (as of June 3) that the stock closes its first day of trading at a market cap over $1.8 trillion. This isn't necessarily the IPO valuation Anthropic is looking for, but what the market would assign it after having its first chance to buy the stock. Obviously, there is still a lot we don't know, and investors will want to review the company's registration statement before making a determination. But right now, there is a chance Anthropic goes public at a valuation much more reasonable than SpaceX or OpenAI's.
Trump-linked fund sparking odds shifts as Newsom leads Polymarket nomineer race
A Forbes-primed report on May 31, 2026 highlighted a broad field of applicants for a controversial $1.8 billion fund linked to Donald Trump, with figures ranging from George Santos to Mike Lindell becoming potential claimants. In this environment, traders on Polymarket have sparked activity around the Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 contract, recalibrating odds as the market remains open for bets ahead of the 2028 race. A Forbes briefing published on May 31, 2026, outlines a widening list of applicants for Trump's $1.8 billion anti-weaponization fund, detailing names tied to the effort and the political backlash surrounding the program. The piece notes that court challenges and criticisms have accompanied the fund, while several high-profile figures are publicly weighing claims, casting a spotlight on how policy tangents can ripple through political sentiment. As the story moves through media cycles, investors are watching for any shifts in how such actions might influence voter attitudes and fundraising dynamics ahead of the next White House contest. The report underscores how these developments intersect with broader political risk, potentially affecting market-perceived probabilities for Democratic contenders in 2028, even as this is a separate policy thread from the Polymarket contract. Market participants are translating those political risk signals into price moves on contract bets tied to the nomination outcome, with liquidity remaining robust in a market that captures evolving expectations. Prediction Market Reaction Leading outcome Gavin Newsom carries roughly 26% implied probability in the current market, with other plausible contenders showing far thinner odds. Across the strike list, Yes odds for Gavin Newsom hover near 26.75% while No odds sit around 73.25%, and the overall contract has seen sustained volume as traders position around high-profile names such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Kamala Harris. For a perpendicular view, the Yes odds for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sit near 10.45% with No at 89.55%, while Kamala Harris shows about 7.85% Yes and 92.15% No, reflecting a steep skew away from these alternatives. Volume on the multi-outcome contract remains elevated, with hundreds of millions in notional traded as participants concentrate bets around the top two outcomes and selectively hedge across the rest of the field. By the Numbers Top strike rungs +41 more strikes not shown
Betting fraud: Google employee rakes in $1.2 million on Polymarket - Research Snipers
A Google developer used secret company data to place safe bets on the Polymarket crypto platform. The multi-million dollar fraud was now exposed and led to the arrest. The case highlights the problem behind the forecasting platform. Millions in fraud by Google developers Polymarket is currently making some headlines. The controversial platform, where you can bet on anything, such as wars, was recently even banned in Spain. Now a 36-year-old Google developer has been arrested in New York on suspicion of wire fraud and money laundering. The Italian, who works in Zurich, is said to have used insider information about his employer to place bets on the prediction platform. Between October and December 2025, the defendant placed targeted predictions under the pseudonym AlphaRaccoon. He bet on which people would take the top spots in Google's annual review. Among other things, he bet on the singer D4vd, whose chance of winning on the platform was very low. Since the employee already knew the result, he made a profit of 1.2 million US dollars (around 1 million euros). Covered tracks How ABC News reported, the man used an internal tool accessible to all employees. Google classified the behavior as a serious policy violation and immediately placed the employee on leave. The accused pleaded not guilty in court and was initially released on bail of 2.25 million US dollars (around 1.9 million euros). To cover his tracks, the developer deleted his Polymarket account after winning and moved the winnings from his digital wallet in the form of cryptocurrency. However, blockchain transactions are publicly visible, which is why observers suspected an insider behind the account early on. The hit rate for the unlikely events was too high to be based on pure chance. Second case of insider trading The current incident is the second criminal trial involving the crypto platform. A US soldier was previously indicted for using secret military information to bet on political developments in Venezuela. A US congressional committee is currently investigating how the platform can check its users and prevent illegal trading. The operators of Polymarket say they are cooperating closely with the investigative authorities. The company has now tightened its internal guidelines. The management announced technical adjustments in order to identify and report abnormalities in betting more quickly in the future.
A Google engineer bet $2.7M on Polymarket using secret search data -- and walked away with $1.2M in profit
When it comes to placing bets, part of the thrill is the unknown potential gain -- or loss. But when Michele Spagnuolo placed a bet on Polymarket last year, he probably had a pretty good idea of what the results would be. The 36-year-old software engineer was arrested last week and charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering after allegedly using confidential internal Google data to place bets on the platform's most-searched person of 2025, according to NPR (1). Must Read * Here's how to get rich from rising US property values with as little as $100 -- and without the stress of angry tenants * Robert Kiyosaki says this 1 asset will surge 400% in a year and begs investors not to miss this 'explosion' * Millionaires under 43 are reshaping investing -- just 25% of their portfolios are in stocks. Here's where their money is going Prosecutors say that Spagnuolo, trading under the username AlphaRaccoon, reportedly wagered $2.7 million across 25 separate bets -- and walked away with $1.2 million in profit. He bet that Pope Leo XIV and Bianca Censori, who married Kanye West, would not take the top spot, but that rapper D4vd would. "The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies," Google spokesperson Jaclyn Vazquez told NPR. Prediction markets face continued scrutiny This isn't the first time prediction market bets have resulted in federal charges. Last month, a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier was charged with using classified information about the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to pocket more than $400,000 on Polymarket. In April, Kalshi suspended three accounts (2) that it believed belonged to congressional candidates Ezekiel Enriquez in Texas, Matt Klein in Minnesota, and Mark Moran in Virginia, who were bidding on their own races. Moran allegedly placed a bet on himself under the event contract, "Who will run for public office this year?" before announcing his candidacy. Moran claimed the bet was intentional (3) to see if he would be caught. But Bobby DeNault, Kalshi's Head of Enforcement, called the candidates' wagers "political insider trading" in a company press release, and he said they violated the platform's rules. DeNault has reported that his team scours social media, employment records, and other public data, such as the FTC's campaign data lists, and uses it to prevent insider trading. "Those trigger flags in our systems, and we've prevented hundreds of cases of insider trading based on that," DeNault told ABC (4).
One Google Employee Used The Company's Internal Data To Bet On Polymarket And Won $1.2M, DOJ Says
* US prosecutors charged Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo after alleging he used confidential search-ranking data to profit more than $1.2 million on Polymarket. * Authorities said Spagnuolo accessed non-public information through an internal Google tool and placed bets on the year's top search trends before the data was released. * The case ties with growing scrutiny of prediction markets, where Polymarket uses Circle's USDC stablecoin for all trading and settlement. Google (GOOG/GOOGL) software engineer Michele Spagnuolo was charged this week with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering after allegedly using confidential company data to pocket more than $1.2 million on Polymarket. According to a criminal complaint unsealed by the US Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York, Spagnuolo, who is based in Switzerland, allegedly used an internal tool marked "Google Confidential" to access non-public search data. Then he placed bets on Polymarket through an account called "AlphaRaccoon" on the year's most-searched people and search items before the data went public. "Unlike the counterparties to his trades, Spagnuolo knew the outcome of these wagers before the trading public because he had accessed Google's confidential," read the filing. The poll in question was on Google's yearly announcement of "Year in Search, in which it publicly releases curated data reflecting the top trending searches from that year. Authorities allege that between October 15 and December 4 last year, Spagnuolo risked roughly $2.75 million on markets tied to Google's internal search data, and made more than $1.2 million once results went public. Polymarket settles all trades in Circle's USDC stablecoin. "Corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information to turn a profit in our markets," US Attorney Jay Clayton said, adding that Spagnuolo violated duties to his employer by trading on Google's internal data for personal gain. GOOG's stock was up by 0.11% during after-hours trading. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around GOOG remained in the 'bearish' zone, while chatter around it stayed in the 'low' levels over the past day. Polymarket And Circle Deepen Ties The charges come as Polymarket has been expanding its crypto infrastructure. In February, Circle (CRCL) and Polymarket announced a partnership to replace the platform's existing bridged stablecoin, USDC.e, with native USD Coin (USDC) for all trading, order placement, and settlement. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around USDC remained in the 'neutral' zone, while chatter around it dipped to 'high' from 'extremely high' over the past day.
DOJ Charges Google Engineer Over $1.2M In Alleged Polymarket Insider Gains Case
DOJ charges Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo over alleged $1.2M Polymarket gains tied to confidential Google data. The U.S. Department of Justice has charged Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo in an alleged Polymarket insider trading case. Prosecutors said he used confidential Google information to place market bets and gain more than $1.2 million. DOJ Files Charges Against Google Engineer The Justice Department charged Spagnuolo with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. He is also known as "AlphaRaccoon" on Polymarket. The case was announced by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York. The FBI's New York office also joined the announcement. Prosecutors said Spagnuolo worked as a software engineer at Google. They said his role gave him access to internal systems and nonpublic business data. U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton said the case involved confidential business information. He said, "Corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information to turn a profit in our markets." Prosecutors Detail Alleged Polymarket Bets The complaint said Spagnuolo created a Polymarket account in May 2024. The account used the alias "AlphaRaccoon," according to prosecutors. From October 15, 2025, to December 4, 2025, he allegedly risked about $2.75 million. Prosecutors said the trades were linked to Google-related prediction markets. The DOJ said Spagnuolo placed bets after accessing Google internal information. It also said the markets were later resolved after public announcements. Prosecutors allege the AlphaRaccoon account earned about $1.2 million from the trades. The gains came from bets tied to nonpublic Google data, they said. Read Also: Polymarket Exploit: $700K in POL Stolen, Executives Say User Funds Safe Confidential Data Access Under Review The complaint said Spagnuolo had access to an internal Google software tool. The tool displayed a "Google Confidential" banner in red text. Prosecutors said Spagnuolo had also certified Google confidentiality and ethics policies. They said those policies covered the handling of internal business information. FBI Assistant Director James C. Barnacle Jr. said Spagnuolo allegedly abused his access. He said the engineer used "nonpublic information" for personal financial gain. Spagnuolo, who resides in Switzerland, appeared before U.S. Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn in Manhattan federal court. The charges remain allegations unless proven in court. The case adds new attention to prediction market trading and employee access to corporate data. Prosecutors said the alleged conduct involved Google information and Polymarket markets.
No Deal by June 30 Dominates Polymarket Bets on US-Iran Talks
A US-Iran nuclear deal remains uncertain as talks near a late June deadline, with the White House signaling red lines while Tehran pushes for a dignified framework. In the Polymarket contract tied to whether the deal is in place by June 30, traders have re-entered the market as settlement expectations shift. The latest reporting indicates that diplomatic efforts to secure an initial agreement between Washington and Tehran are ongoing, though officials warn that no final deal has been reached and timelines remain tight as the June 30 target approaches. Centrist and hardline voices in Washington have signaled that any accord must meet explicit conditions, while Iran has pressed for assurances and the removal of certain sanctions as part of a broader framework. Amid the standoff, global markets and regional security dynamics continue to weigh on investors, with analysts noting that negotiators are navigating a delicate balance between pressure, incentives, and regional considerations. The CNA report referenced heightened tensions and the potential for renewed military options should negotiations stall, underscoring the fragility of any prospective agreement and the consequential financial implications for energy and defense-linked assets. Prediction Market Reaction Polymarket traders are currently pricing the No outcome as the leading option, with odds around 63.5% and Yes near 36.5%, reflecting a persistent expectation that a deal by June 30 remains unlikely in the eyes of the market. Total contract volume has surged into the mid four-million-dollar range in this active binary market, signaling renewed participation as the June deadline approaches and traders position for potential settlement volatility.
Google Engineer Charged Over $1.2M Polymarket Insider Trading Scheme - Memeburn
Congress has since opened a formal probe into Polymarket and Kalshi, raising the stakes for the fast-growing prediction market industry. A Google engineer just caught federal charges for a $1.2 million Polymarket insider trading scheme -- and the way it unravelled says as much about crypto's transparency as about one person's bad judgment. Federal prosecutors charged Michele Spagnuolo, 36, on May 27, 2026, with turning confidential Google search data into $1.2 million in Polymarket winnings. It's the second federal insider trading case tied to Polymarket this year. Here's exactly what happened, how he got caught, and what it means for the future of prediction markets. The Google Engineer Behind the Polymarket Insider Trading Scheme Spagnuolo operated under the alias "AlphaRaccoon." Specifically, he allegedly traded on Polymarket using confidential Google business information. The SDNY complaint lays it all out. In fact, he's an Italian citizen living in Switzerland. Authorities arrested him on Wednesday and charged him with commodities fraud, wire fraud, money laundering, and other counts. According to the complaint, he placed bets on Google search trends using internal company data. Spagnuolo appeared before a federal magistrate, who released him on a $2.25 million bond. Meanwhile, Google confirmed it cooperated with the investigation. A spokesperson said: "The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies. We've placed the employee on leave and will take appropriate action." How the Scheme Actually Worked This wasn't a complicated hack. In fact, Spagnuolo didn't need to break into any system. Rather, he already had legitimate access. Every year, Google publishes its Year in Search report. It reveals the most-searched people, topics, and trends of the year. Crucially, employees can view this data before any public release. So Spagnuolo allegedly used that access window on Polymarket -- a platform where users place real-money bets on real-world events using cryptocurrency. He bet through the AlphaRaccoon account. Specifically, his trades were YES and NO bets on who would top Google's most-searched list. In one example, he placed $381.12 on the singer D4vd, ranking among the year's most-searched people. He also put just $5 on D4VD to be number one -- at an implied probability slightly above 0%. The edge was devastating. As the indictment puts it: Spagnuolo "knew the outcome of these wagers before the trading public did because he had accessed Google's confidential, commercially valuable internal data." He wasn't guessing. Instead, he was collecting. Crypto Made It Traceable -- Not Anonymous Here's the twist many crypto newcomers don't expect: trading on a blockchain doesn't make you invisible. In fact, it can make you more visible. Polymarket's chief legal officer, Olivia Chalos, said in a statement that the platform is "the only prediction platform to date whose cooperation has led to insider trading charges in the United States." She added that, since users trade with crypto, activity is "transparent, traceable, and bad actors leave footprints." Meanwhile, someone moved part of the funds to a payment processor account in Italy. Investigators then traced that account back to an ID card belonging to Spagnuolo. Together, that trail -- part on-chain, part paper -- sealed the case. Polymarket, which recently partnered with Nasdaq to bring more institutional legitimacy to prediction markets, flagged the suspicious trading and worked directly with the DOJ. That cooperation now anchors its public case for self-regulation. This Is the Second Case -- and Congress Is Watching Last month, SDNY charged a US special forces soldier. According to prosecutors, he used classified knowledge of a planned military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The soldier bet on Polymarket ahead of the raid and pocketed over $400,000. Still, he has pleaded not guilty. Two federal cases in under six weeks got Congress's attention fast. As a result, the House Oversight Committee opened an investigation into Polymarket and Kalshi. Specifically, lawmakers want to know how both platforms handle identity checks, geographic restrictions, and unusual trades. The stakes are real. After all, prediction market volumes hit $51 billion last year and could reach $240 billion in 2026. That kind of growth attracts serious capital -- and bad actors. Consequently, enforcement is accelerating. In March 2026, both platforms announced new anti-insider rules aligned with recent CFTC guidance on prediction market manipulation. For example, new restrictions now bar politicians from trading on their own campaigns, athletes from betting on their own sports, and employees from trading on contracts tied to their employers. What This Means for Prediction Markets Going Forward The Spagnuolo case isn't about one rogue engineer. Rather, it tests a bigger question: does insider trading law -- built for stock markets -- cover prediction markets too? Traditionally, insider trading rules grew up around securities. However, the CFTC issued a February 2026 advisory on how these rules apply to prediction platforms. The Spagnuolo charges use commodities fraud and wire fraud -- not traditional securities law -- and that shows prosecutors have found a path that works. For Google, moreover, this exposes a real data governance gap. After all, every employee reportedly had access to the same internal tool Spagnuolo used. That's a systemic policy failure, not a one-off incident. For crypto broadly, the case makes one thing clear: the blockchain cuts both ways. Specifically, every bet is public and permanent -- and federal investigators can read it too. In fact, data transparency was a theme Google itself put front and centre at Google I/O 2026, and the parallels to this case are hard to ignore. Meanwhile, the CFTC separately filed a civil case against Spagnuolo. As a result, he now faces criminal and regulatory pressure at the same time. Altogether, the prediction market industry is officially on notice. FAQs What is Polymarket? Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users bet real money -- via cryptocurrency -- on real-world events. For example, that includes election results, search trend rankings, and geopolitical outcomes. The CFTC regulates it in the US. What exactly did Michele Spagnuolo do? Prosecutors allege he accessed confidential Google search data and used it to place profitable bets on Polymarket. As a result, he faces charges of commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. The DOJ filed a criminal case; the CFTC filed a separate civil one. Is prediction market insider trading actually illegal? Yes. Even though prediction markets don't follow the same rules as stock exchanges, misusing confidential information to profit from trades still breaks federal anti-fraud and commodities law. Furthermore, the CFTC reinforced this with formal guidance in February 2026. How did investigators identify Spagnuolo? Polymarket cooperated with the DOJ and flagged the unusual trades. Additionally, blockchain transparency played a key role -- crypto transactions are traceable. Investigators then linked the funds to a payment account in Italy opened using Spagnuolo's own government ID. What happens to Polymarket now? Polymarket faces a congressional probe alongside rival platform Kalshi. Both have already introduced new rules against insider trading. Nevertheless, the platform's best defence is cooperation -- it's trying to prove it can police itself before regulators step in.
Elon Musk's SpaceX Cuts IPO Target To $1.8 Trillion: What's The Prediction Market Forecast?
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Elon Musk's SpaceX is targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in what may be the largest IPO ever, down from an earlier goal above $2 trillion, according to Bloomberg. The cut follows heavy losses from SpaceX's February merger with xAI. The company posted a $4.28 billion net loss in the first quarter of 2026, with AI infrastructure driving most of the burn, according to the S-1 filing. Investors are piling in anyway. Since mid-December, when Musk first confirmed IPO plans, a net $14 billion has flowed into three mutual funds and four ETFs holding slices of the rocket maker, per Morningstar data via the Financial Times. Prediction market traders are going the other way. Polymarket's "SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap Above" contract currently assigns 63% odds that the company closes its first trading day above $2.2 trillion. SpaceX has reportedly earmarked up to 30% of IPO shares for retail investors, roughly three times the typical mega-cap allocation. Retail Piles Into Proxy Funds The Destiny Tech100 Fund surged 27% earlier this month, as investors raced to get exposure to the space company. The Tema Space Innovators ETF, which launched in late March, tripled its assets to roughly $1.3 billion the week SpaceX filed its S-1. The ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF holds SpaceX through a special-purpose vehicle and carries approximately $292 million in exposure, or roughly 23% of the fund, according to ERShares. Trending: Avoid the #1 Investing Mistake: How Your 'Safe' Holdings Could Be Costing You Big Time Telecoms firm EchoStar Corp, which received SpaceX equity in a spectrum sale, is up over 500% in the past year, the Financial Times reported. Auditor KPMG flagged substantial doubt about EchoStar's ability to continue as a going concern in its 2025 annual report. A Spaghetti Cannon Of New ETFs Morningstar's Ben Johnson likened the wave of new SpaceX-themed ETF filings to an "ETF spaghetti cannon" approach of "ready, fire, aim." Neuberger Berman's Renos Savvides told the Financial Times the speculative activity "feels a bit like 2021," the year before a major market slump. SpaceX is expected to begin formal IPO marketing as soon as June 4 with pricing as early as June 11.
Anthropic Is Now Worth More Than OpenAI
In a blog post on Thursday, Anthropic wrote that it "has raised $65 billion in Series H funding led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital, valuing the company at $965 billion post-money." The most recent blog post along similar lines from OpenAI places its valuation at $852 billion. That means the top of the leaderboard has flipped. Among AI-first tech companies, Anthropic, "the Claude one," is now technically more valuable than OpenAI, "the ChatGPT one." There are, however, some mitigating factors to keep in mind about these valuations. First of all, as critics like Ed Zitron avidly and constantly point out (as well as more staid, mainstream critics like HSBC), AI as a core business is -- to say the leas -- unproven as a strategy for long-term profitability. Anthropic claims to have just turned an operating profit for one quarter, as the Wall Street Journal reported, but that story also notes that "it is unclear what accounting methods Anthropic has used to book revenue and costs," and that, "The company might not remain profitable for the full year as it plans spending increases due to its vast computing needs." So it would be a stretch to call Anthropic a profitable company. Those aforementioned "vast computing needs" are no secret. It has committed hundreds of billions of dollars to companies like Amazon, Google, and Broadcom over the next decade, and it's made a short term commitment of $1.5 billion per month to SpaceX. Investors are no doubt aware of all that spending, but they also know Anthropic's revenue exploded around the start of the 2026 calendar year because of an influx of enterprise clients. Vibe coding is the apparent norm now, creating a narrative in which companies supposedly no longer need young coders to do menial work thanks to Claude Code -- along with competitor products like OpenAI's Codex. Announcements of small changes to Anthropic's Claude Code product have started to have huge impacts on the stock market, particularly the valuations of software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies. Rather than leading lately, OpenAI is seen to be playing catch-up. However, another thing to keep in mind about Anthropic being the new valuation champion is that OpenAI's most recent valuation was calculated based on a funding round from two months before Anthropic's. So this is a little like when a sports team overtakes a rival in league rankings having played one more game than the other. There's more ball still to come. Since OpenAI and Anthropic are -- for now -- both privately held companies, price discovery is scattered and a bit sketchy, especially since the companies still don't have to report their earnings and expenditures publicly. For what it's worth, Anthropic's valuation on Forge Global, a secondary market for private shares overtook OpenAI's last month, with Anthropic's estimated value at around $1 trillion, and OpenAI's at $880 billion. Want an even sketchier estimate? Polymarket places the odds of Anthropic having a higher valuation than OpenAI at the end of June at 89% as of this writing. Some degree of clarity is probably on its way. A May 20 New York Times article citing "two people with knowledge of the matter" said OpenAI was expected to file for an IPO "in the coming weeks." In fact, it may have filed confidentially on May 22. Meanwhile, Forbes says Anthropic's IPO could come "as soon as October." So perhaps in fall there'll be a clearer winner in this contest. By then, the pricing of shares in OpenAI and Anthropic will be publicly available in real time. If people dispute that one publicly traded AI company is "worth more" than the other, they can, and probably will, fire up an app like Robinhood and vote with their life savings. And then, well, God help them.
Google engineer charged with using secret search data to make $1.2M on Polymarket
U.S. prosecutors slapped insider trading charges against a Google employee this week, alleging the software engineer used confidential company information to pocket more than US$1.2 million from prediction market platform Polymarket with bets on search trends. In a complaint unsealed in New York, authorities identified the employee as 36-year-old Michele Spagnuolo -- an Italian citizen residing in Switzerland who has worked for Google since 2014. Under the online name "AlphaRaccoon," they alleged, Spagnuolo used the company's 2025 "Year in Search" data before it was published to enter Polymarket wagers about the most trending Googled people of last year. This week's charges "reinforce a decades-old message: corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information to turn a profit in our markets," Jay Clayton, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said Wednesday. "Insider trading compromises the integrity of our markets, and the American people want this greed-driven conduct investigated and prosecuted." Spagnuolo allegedly made new Polymarket trades as Google's internal search data evolved, from October into December of last year. For example, per the complaint, Spagnuolo initially wagered that Kendrick Lamar -- who headlined the 2025 Super Bowl halftime show -- would top search trends for people last year. But after internal Google data showed that alt-pop singer D4vd was later leading the influx of searches, he placed new bets. D4vd, whose legal name is David Burke, was charged last month with murdering 14-year-old Celeste Rivas Hernandez. Using the prediction market's "yes" or "no" wagers, Spagnuolo also made a series of Polymarket trades about other individuals who would or would not rank in Google's 2025 search trends, the complaint said. And after the data was published on Dec. 4, the AlphaRaccoon account soon pocketed sizeable profits. An FBI investigation later traced its cryptocurrency payments. An attorney for Spagnuolo was not immediately identified. California-based Google confirmed to The Associated Press it had placed its employee on leave. "The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies," a Google spokesperson said in a statement, adding the company was working with law enforcement and "will take the appropriate action." Polymarket reiterated it too worked closely with authorities. A spokesperson also touted that the company "is the only prediction platform to date whose cooperation has led to insider trading charges in the United States", and maintained blockchain trading, which Polymarket uses, is "transparent, traceable, and bad actors leave footprints." Spagnuolo is not first person to face insider trading charges spanning from Polymarket trades. Last month, the government also charged a special forces soldier who made over $400,000 from Polymarket trades betting on the downfall of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The solider allegedly used classified information ahead of January's U.S. military operation, which he was a part of. Such scandals have put the spotlight on a murky (and growing) world of speculative, 24/7 transactions now filling the internet. Prediction markets sell event contracts -- so they're also categorized and regulated differently from traditional forms of gambling. That's raised concerns about consumer protections, and legal battles over government oversight. President Donald Trump's administration has already thrown its support behind company operators, and sued several states over their regulation efforts. Meanwhile, the industry is scrambling to assure the public with new guardrails. Polymarket recently rewrote its rules to clearly state users cannot trade on contracts where they might possess confidential information, or could influence the outcome of an event. Spagnuolo is being charged with violating the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud and money laundering. He could face years of prison time.
Polymarket invite code NJCOM: Canadiens Hurricanes Game 5
Claim your exclusive bonus with Polymarket invite code NJCOM at sign-up and then take a position on the Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Game 5. The Carolina Hurricanes are up 3-1 in the series and one win away from the Stanley Cup Final as they prepare for Friday's matchup. The Canes shut out Montreal 4-0 in Game 4 and are heavy favorites to close out the series on home ice at Lenovo Center. In the meantime, the Canadiens are fighting for their playoff lives and will need a huge bounce-back effort to force a Game 6 and keep their season alive. Polymarket invite code NJCOM: Grab a $50 sign-up bonus * Polymarket invite code: NJCOM * Sign-up bonus: $50 in bonus funds * Requirements: Register for an account and deposit $20 or more * Terms and conditions: 18+ and located in the U.S. * Last verified: May 29, 2026 Now that Polymarket is officially available for all iOS users, Android users can utilize the Polymarket invite code NJCOM for instant access and skip the waitlist. How Polymarket works for Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Game 5 With Polymarket officially unbanned in the United States, it's easier than ever to get in on the action for Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Game 5. Polymarket is a real-money prediction exchange, where you can buy and sell shares on the outcome of an event, such as whether Carolina will close out the series or Montreal will stay alive, and prices actively reflect real-time probabilities. The platform has completely dissolved its waitlist and is open for iOS users to download and trade immediately, but Android users still mostly have to wait in line. Luckily, this is the first opportunity for Android users to bypass the waitlist entirely and join the US exchange immediately by using the Polymarket invite code NJCOM at sign-up. For a detailed look at platform mechanics, deposit methods, and trading strategies, see our full Polymarket review. How to claim the Polymarket invite code NJCOM Getting your Polymarket invite code NJCOM is very easy; just follow the basic step-by-step guide below. Step-by-step guide Polymarket featured event for May 29, 2026: Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Game 5 Ready to put your predictions on the line in this Eastern Conference Finals matchup? Use the Polymarket invite code NJCOM to register now and secure your exclusive bonus before the puck drops on Friday night. Disclaimer: Some markets on the polymarket site are not yet available on the app. The Hurricanes are back at Lenovo Center and looking to punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final after a smothering 4-0 shutout in Game 4 where they completely dismantled Montreal, outshooting them, 44-18. The Hurricanes' relentless forecheck has been the tone-setter for this series, and the market has responded by backing a home closeout in a big way. "Yes" shares to the Hurricanes are trading at 70￠, good for a 70% implied probability, compared to Montreal's 31￠. If you believe Carolina's defense will continue to stifle the Canadiens' attack, the "Hurricanes to win by 1.5 goals" market at 49￠is a compelling angle to consider. The Over 5½ total goals market is almost a coin flip right now (at 51￠), but if Carolina can have puck control as they did on Wednesday, there's serious value in trusting their momentum to win by a multi-goal margin instead of just paying the 70￠ premium for their straight moneyline.
Elon Musk sends startling message on SpaceX, Tesla merger
Two of the most valuable companies on the planet share one chief executive, overlapping workforces, and billions of dollars in cross-company transactions. Wall Street cannot stop asking whether Elon Musk will fold SpaceX and Tesla into a single entity. That speculation surged after reports confirmed Musk had discussed combining the two companies with close colleagues in recent weeks. SpaceX is preparing to kick off its Wall Street roadshow within days ahead of what could be the largest IPO in market history. A combined SpaceX and Tesla would create a conglomerate spanning rockets, satellites, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and energy storage valued at roughly $3.35 trillion to $3.6 trillion based on SpaceX's IPO target range and Tesla's current market capitalization. The deal is far from certain, but the threads connecting these companies have grown too thick for investors to dismiss. Musk has discussed folding SpaceX and Tesla together Musk raised the idea of merging SpaceX and Tesla in conversations with colleagues, and Tesla employees say the prospect has been openly discussed internally, CNBC reported. SpaceX is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq in roughly two weeks following its S-1 filing. SpaceX carries a private valuation of roughly $1.25 trillion following its February merger with Musk's AI venture, xAI, a deal that also folded the social media platform X under the same corporate roof, though its May 20 S-1 filing now targets an IPO valuation of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. Tesla's market capitalization sits at approximately $1.6 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies in the world. Legal experts cited in the report indicated that a combination would face limited antitrust risk but significant shareholder complexity around structure. Musk holds 85% voting control at SpaceX, meaning board resistance to any deal would be negligible, the company's prospectus disclosed. The harder questions involve determining the parent company, structuring a stock swap, and protecting minority shareholders on both sides of the transaction. Those unresolved details keep this from being a done deal, despite the clear strategic logic driving the conversation forward. SpaceX and Tesla share billions in cross-company spending The financial ties between the two companies have deepened over the past two years, creating transactions that would simplify under a single corporate structure. SpaceX purchased $697 million worth of Tesla Megapack energy storage systems in 2024 and 2025 to power xAI data centers, according to the SpaceX prospectus. SpaceX also spent $131 million on Tesla Cybertrucks in 2025, and Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI in January 2026 before those shares converted into SpaceX holdings following the February merger, the prospectus showed. A shared vice president of materials engineering serves both companies simultaneously, reflecting deep structural overlap. Both companies are directing enormous capital toward AI infrastructure at a pace that outstrips most public market competitors in the technology sector. SpaceX allocated more than 75% of its $10.1 billion in first-quarter capital expenditure toward AI, CNBC reported, while Tesla flagged total capex exceeding $25 billion this year. In March 2026, Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI announced Terafab, a joint chip manufacturing facility originally pegged at $25 billion. SpaceX disclosed in a May 6, 2026, Grimes County hearing notice that the first phase alone will cost $55 billion, with full buildout potentially reaching $119 billion. That facility represents the clearest physical evidence that these companies are converging toward one structure. Mario Tama/Getty Images Wedbush's Dan Ives sees 80% to 90% chance of a merger by 2027 Dan Ives, managing director at Wedbush Securities, places the probability of a merger at 80% to 90% with a target completion in the first half of 2027. He has called Tesla and Nvidia 'the best physical AI plays' and frames a combined SpaceX-Tesla entity as an extension of that thesis. "I think that's the step process that they'll go through, and then ultimately a merger with Tesla," Ives told the Schwab Network in April, while maintaining his $600 price target for Tesla. He argued that autonomous robotics alone could add between $1 trillion and $2 trillion to the market capitalization. My contrarian belief is I don't think SpaceX will IPO... I think that it will reverse merge into Tesla, and I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, has described the combined entity as a potential 'Berkshire Hathaway of AI' offering investors a clear AI bet, though he has also raised conflict-of-interest concerns and argued the deal would resemble an acquisition more than a merger. "It looks more like SpaceX will be bailing out Tesla by buying them over, calling it a merger," Gerber wrote on the social platform X in April, arguing the deal would function more like an acquisition. That split captures the uncertainty around the potential combination of Musk's two flagship companies. Prediction markets and Musk's pay structure frame the stakes for investors While Ives places merger odds above 80%, prediction markets tell a far more cautious story about the timeline for any deal to come together. Kalshi traders placed only 33% odds on a merger before May 2027, with probabilities swinging sharply in recent sessions, CNBC reported. Polymarket participants assigned a probability between 17% and 26% that a formal merger announcement would be made before the end of 2026, according to TradingKey. That gap between analyst confidence and market pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Musk will follow through on a combination. Musk's compensation adds another dimension to the speculation, because his SpaceX pay is tied to the company reaching a $7.5 trillion market cap alongside a Mars colonization milestone, CNBC reported. A merger that would boost the combined entity's valuation would accelerate his progress toward that target and other milestones in Tesla's board-approved pay plan. Analysts cited above, including Ives and Gerber, point to the structure of any stock swap and the potential for dilution of retail ownership stakes as the central unresolved concerns for Tesla shareholders. Institutions managing large pension and mutual funds have publicly stated that they would use their voting power against any merger plan that harms retail shareholders, according to TradingKey. The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc. This story was originally published May 28, 2026 at 10:03 AM.
Google employee charged with using confidential search data to make $1.2 million on Polymarket
NEW YORK -- U.S. prosecutors slapped insider trading charges against a Google employee this week, alleging the software engineer used confidential company information to pocket more than $1.2 million from prediction market platform Polymarket with bets on search trends. In a complaint unsealed in New York, authorities identified the employee as 36-year-old Michele Spagnuolo -- an Italian citizen residing in Switzerland who has worked for Google since 2014. Under the online name "AlphaRaccoon," they alleged, Spagnuolo used the company's 2025 "Year in Search" data before it was published to enter Polymarket wagers about the most trending Googled people of last year. This week's charges "reinforce a decades-old message: corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information to turn a profit in our markets," Jay Clayton, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said Wednesday. "Insider trading compromises the integrity of our markets, and the American people want this greed-driven conduct investigated and prosecuted." Spagnuolo allegedly made new Polymarket trades as Google's internal search data evolved, from October into December of last year. For example, per the complaint, Spagnuolo initially wagered that Kendrick Lamar -- who headlined the 2025 Super Bowl halftime show -- would top search trends for people last year. But after internal Google data showed that alt-pop singer D4vd was later leading the influx of searches, he placed new bets. D4vd, whose legal name is David Burke, was charged last month with murdering 14-year-old Celeste Rivas Hernandez. Using the prediction market's "yes" or "no" wagers, Spagnuolo also made a series of Polymarket trades about other individuals who would or wouldn't rank in Google's 2025 search trends, the complaint said. And after the data was published on Dec. 4, the AlphaRaccoon account soon pocketed sizeable profits. An FBI investigation later traced its cryptocurrency payments. An attorney for Spagnuolo was not immediately identified. California-based Google confirmed to The Associated Press it had placed its employee on leave. "The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies," a Google spokesperson said in a statement -- adding the company was working with law enforcement and "will take the appropriate action." Polymarket reiterated it too worked closely with authorities. A spokesperson also touted that the company "is the only prediction platform to date whose cooperation has led to insider trading charges in the United States" -- and maintained blockchain trading, which Polymarket uses, is "transparent, traceable, and bad actors leave footprints." Spagnuolo isn't first person to face insider trading charges spanning from Polymarket trades. Last month, the government also charged a special forces soldier who made over $400,000 from Polymarket trades betting on the downfall of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The solider allegedly used classified information ahead of January's U.S. military operation, which he was a part of. Such scandals have put the spotlight on a murky (and growing) world of speculative, 24/7 transactions now filling the internet. Prediction markets sell event contracts -- so they're also categorized and regulated differently from traditional forms of gambling. That's raised concerns about consumer protections, and legal battles over government oversight. President Donald Trump's administration has already thrown its support behind company operators -- and sued several states over their regulation efforts. Meanwhile, the industry is scrambling to assure the public with new guardrails. Polymarket recently rewrote its rules to clearly state users cannot trade on contracts where they might possess confidential information, or could influence the outcome of an event. Spagnuolo is being charged with violating the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act, wire fraud and money laundering. He could face years of prison time.
Google engineer charged in alleged $1.2mn Polymarket insider trading scheme
Betting on Polymarket is supposed to be a fun, low-intensity gamble whereby you buy 'yes' or 'no' shares for the outcome of a real-world event and hope to correctly predict how it resolves -- at which point your winning share pays out $1 and your losing one pays nothing. That is, unless you are an employee at Google and federal prosecutors allege you already know the answers -- in which case it could amount to insider trading, one of the most aggressively prosecuted white-collar offences on the books that can carry a maximum prison sentence of 20 years. According to the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Michele Spagnuolo, a staff software engineer at Google, allegedly used his employer's most confidential annual trend data compilation to pocket more than $1.2 million (€1.1mn) on Polymarket. His alias was known as "AlphaRaccoon." Spagnuolo has now been charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering by federal prosecutors in New York. The Spagnuolo case is the second high-profile prosecution for insider trading on a prediction market in just over a month, part of a largely unexplored legal frontier as prosecutors grapple with how existing fraud and commodities law applies to platforms like Polymarket, which operate nothing like a traditional stock exchange. How Google's 'Year in Search' became a trading tip Every December, Google publishes its "Year in Search" -- a splashy, carefully choreographed reveal of the year's top trending searches. It drives traffic, generates significant media coverage and, as the filing notes, serves as a "high-profile vehicle" through which Google demonstrates its reach to advertisers. The whole point, commercially speaking, is the surprise. Google guards the underlying data closely and even internally, access is restricted to a limited number of employees. Spagnuolo, who has worked at Google since around 2014, allegedly had access to an internal software tool bearing a banner reading "Google Confidential" that gave him sight of the Year in Search results before anyone outside the company did. Enter AlphaRaccoon On the prediction market platform Polymarket, users can bet on the outcome of real-world events such as elections, sports results, and cultural moments using cryptocurrency. In October 2025, Polymarket began offering markets on who would be Google's most-searched person of the year. Around the same time, a Polymarket account called "AlphaRaccoon" started placing bets. Between October and December 2025, FBI Special Agent Brandon Racz alleges, Spagnuolo accessed Google's confidential Year in Search data and then, sometimes within hours, placed wagers on Polymarket that reflected exactly what he had seen.
Google engineer charged in alleged $1.2mn Polymarket insider trading scheme
Add Yahoo as a preferred source to see more of our stories on Google. Betting on Polymarket is supposed to be a fun, low-intensity gamble whereby you buy 'yes' or 'no' shares for the outcome of a real-world event and hope to correctly predict how it resolves -- at which point your winning share pays out $1 and your losing one pays nothing. That is, unless you are an employee at Google and federal prosecutors allege you already know the answers -- in which case it could amount to insider trading, one of the most aggressively prosecuted white-collar offences on the books that can carry a maximum prison sentence of 20 years. According to the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Michele Spagnuolo, a staff software engineer at Google, allegedly used his employer's most confidential annual trend data compilation to pocket more than $1.2 million (€1.1mn) on Polymarket. His alias was known as "AlphaRaccoon." Spagnuolo has now been charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering by federal prosecutors in New York. The Spagnuolo case is the second high-profile prosecution for insider trading on a prediction market in just over a month, part of a largely unexplored legal frontier as prosecutors grapple with how existing fraud and commodities law applies to platforms like Polymarket, which operate nothing like a traditional stock exchange. How Google's 'Year in Search' became a trading tip Every December, Google publishes its "Year in Search" -- a splashy, carefully choreographed reveal of the year's top trending searches. It drives traffic, generates significant media coverage and, as the filing notes, serves as a "high-profile vehicle" through which Google demonstrates its reach to advertisers. The whole point, commercially speaking, is the surprise. Google guards the underlying data closely and even internally, access is restricted to a limited number of employees. Spagnuolo, who has worked at Google since around 2014, allegedly had access to an internal software tool bearing a banner reading "Google Confidential" that gave him sight of the Year in Search results before anyone outside the company did. Enter AlphaRaccoon On the prediction market platform Polymarket, users can bet on the outcome of real-world events such as elections, sports results, and cultural moments using cryptocurrency. In October 2025, Polymarket began offering markets on who would be Google's most-searched person of the year. Around the same time, a Polymarket account called "AlphaRaccoon" started placing bets. Between October and December 2025, FBI Special Agent Brandon Racz alleges, Spagnuolo accessed Google's confidential Year in Search data and then, sometimes within hours, placed wagers on Polymarket that reflected exactly what he had seen. On or about 15 October 2025, Spagnuolo allegedly accessed the internal tool. The following day, the AlphaRaccoon account wagered approximately $403 (€373) on Kendrick Lamar being the number one searched person of 2025 at the implied odds of just 3% and roughly $10,807 (€10,022) against Pope Leo XIV taking the top spot. He allegedly knew this, according to prosecutors, because the internal data already told him so. Betting against the crowd What makes the alleged scheme particularly striking is how it worked in practice. Because Spagnuolo allegedly knew who would not top the rankings, he could bet heavily against the crowd's favourites and collected winnings when popular picks failed to materialise. The AlphaRaccoon account wagered approximately $937,688 (€869,083) on the "no" side of the question of whether Bianca Censori would be the number one searched person at a time when the market put her odds at around 85%. It bet roughly $613,587 (€568,628) against Pope Leo XIV at 56% implied probability, and approximately $509,149 (€471,741) against Donald Trump at around 90%. In total, across roughly 25 bets on Year in Search outcomes, AlphaRaccoon risked approximately $2.75mn (€2.55mn). When Google published its results on 4 December 2025, confirming its global top five trending people as d4vd, Kendrick Lamar, Jimmy Kimmel, Tyler Robinson and Pope Leo XIV, the account walked away with approximately $1.2mn (€1.11m) in profit. The cover-up Once the markets resolved, roughly $3.9mn (€3.6mn) in USDC.e -- a cryptocurrency tied to the value of the US dollar -- was released to the AlphaRaccoon account. On 10 December, the account transferred approximately $5mn (€4.6mn) to a linked cryptocurrency wallet. Polymarket used USDC.e as its main payment currency for trading and settlements on the Polygon blockchain network. From there, according to the complaint, the funds passed through at least two cryptocurrency swaps before being moved into a service that prosecutors say was designed to make the transactions harder to trace. Meanwhile, online communities on Discord and X had already begun speculating that AlphaRaccoon was a Google insider. Shortly afterwards, the username was quietly removed from the account, reverting it to an anonymous alphanumeric string. The FBI traced the wallet anyway. Prosecutors allege cryptocurrency records linked the AlphaRaccoon account to a wallet that had sent approximately $149,980 (€138,916) to a payment processor account registered in the name of Michele Spagnuolo using an Italian government identification card. The charges Spagnuolo faces three charges. The first is commodities fraud, based on allegations that he used material nonpublic information to execute trades on Polymarket, which prosecutors are treating as a platform offering commodity-linked contracts. The second is wire fraud, relating to the alleged misuse of Google's confidential commercial information for personal gain. The third is money laundering, tied to prosecutors' claims that he took steps after December 2025 to conceal the source and ownership of the proceeds. The complaint was sworn before US Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn in the Southern District of New York. The case follows that of US Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was charged in April with allegedly using classified information about a US military operation targeting Nicolás Maduro to place winning bets on Polymarket. Prosecutors say Van Dyke turned roughly $33,000 in wagers into more than $400,000 in profit. He has pleaded not guilty.
Google engineer charged with using inside information to win $1.2M on Polymarket
A software engineer at Google unlawfully used confidential company information to make a series of bets that won him about $1.2 million on the online prediction market Polymarket, the Justice Department alleged in a criminal complaint Wednesday. Software engineer Michele Spagnuolo used internal data about search activity to place roughly $2.7 million in bets on which public figures would be announced as among the most searched for in 2025, according to the federal complaint. The 36-year-old Italian citizen used an account called AlphaRaccoon to place bets late last year on whether and how figures including singer D4vd and Pope Leo XIV would appear in rankings released by Google in its Year in Search report last December, according to the complaint and a Justice Department news release. "Unlike the counterparties to his trades, Spagnuolo knew the outcome of these wagers before the trading public did because he had accessed Google's confidential, commercially valuable internal data," the complaint alleged. Spagnuolo, a resident of Switzerland, appeared before a U.S. magistrate judge in New York on Wednesday, the Justice Department said. He was charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering. The case appears to be the second time the Justice Department has charged a prediction market user with a form of insider trading. In April, a Special Forces soldier involved in the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro was charged with using classified information about the operation to win roughly $400,000 through a series of bets of Polymarket. Polymarket and its rival prediction market platform Kalshi have soared in popularity over the past two years as the start-ups have won over users willing to bet money against each other on stock trading-style markets for events including federal elections, government actions, sports and celebrity marriages. The platforms have also attracted scrutiny from Congress over the incentives they might create for people in business or public office to use their influence or inside information to tilt the odds of prediction market wagers. Senators voted last month to unanimously to ban themselves from participating in prediction markets. U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton said in a statement released Wednesday that the charges against Spagnuolo showed that cheating on prediction markets would not be tolerated. "Today's charges reinforce a decades-old message: corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information to turn a profit in our markets," he said. "As alleged, Spagnuolo violated the duties he owed to his employer and used Google's confidential business information to make more than $1.2 million in trading profits on Polymarket. Insider trading compromises the integrity of our markets, and the American people want this greed-driven conduct investigated and prosecuted." Spagnuolo used an internal software tool with a banner that read "Google Confidential" in red text to access search data before the company publicly released its annual report on search trends, according to the complaint. Using his AlphaRaccoon account Spagnuolo placed bets on Google's Year in Search data between October and December last year, according to the complaint. He removed the name from the account after his streak of successful wagers led other Polymarket users to speculate on Discord and X that the account belonged to a Google insider, the complaint said. Polymarket deputy chief legal officer Olivia Chalos said in a statement that the company worked closely with the U.S. attorney's office for the Southern District of New York and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets. "We are committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets as well as enforcing our rules and working with our regulators and law enforcement," the statement said. Polymarket also posted a statement on its X account Wednesday that appeared to credit an internal team at the company with first identifying the allegedly fraudulent behavior. "Proud to announce Polymarket's market integrity infrastructure flagged another trader who was arrested this morning in New York for insider trading," it said. "With 2 out of 2 arrests in this industry resulting from our criminal referrals, Polymarket has emerged as the enforcement leader," the statement said, apparently referring to the earlier charges against the Special Forces soldier.
Google engineer charged over $1.2mn Polymarket bets
A Google engineer has been arrested for allegedly using his employer's secret search trend data to win $1.2mn on Polymarket as landmark case tests whether prediction markets are subject to the same rules as Wall Street. Betting on Polymarket is supposed to be a fun, low-intensity gamble whereby you buy 'yes' or 'no' shares for the outcome of a real-world event and hope to correctly predict how it resolves -- at which point your winning share pays out $1 and your losing one pays nothing. That is, unless you are an employee at Google and federal prosecutors allege you already know the answers -- in which case it could amount to insider trading, one of the most aggressively prosecuted white-collar offences on the books that can carry a maximum prison sentence of 20 years. According to the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Michele Spagnuolo, a staff software engineer at Google, allegedly used his employer's most confidential annual trend data compilation to pocket more than $1.2 million (€1.1mn) on Polymarket. His alias was known as "AlphaRaccoon." Spagnuolo has now been charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering by federal prosecutors in New York. The Spagnuolo case is the second high-profile prosecution for insider trading on a prediction market in just over a month, part of a largely unexplored legal frontier as prosecutors grapple with how existing fraud and commodities law applies to platforms like Polymarket, which operate nothing like a traditional stock exchange. How Google's 'Year in Search' became a trading tip Every December, Google publishes its "Year in Search" -- a splashy, carefully choreographed reveal of the year's top trending searches. It drives traffic, generates significant media coverage and, as the filing notes, serves as a "high-profile vehicle" through which Google demonstrates its reach to advertisers. The whole point, commercially speaking, is the surprise. Google guards the underlying data closely and even internally, access is restricted to a limited number of employees. Spagnuolo, who has worked at Google since around 2014, allegedly had access to an internal software tool bearing a banner reading "Google Confidential" that gave him sight of the Year in Search results before anyone outside the company did. Enter AlphaRaccoon On the prediction market platform Polymarket, users can bet on the outcome of real-world events such as elections, sports results, and cultural moments using cryptocurrency. In October 2025, Polymarket began offering markets on who would be Google's most-searched person of the year. Around the same time, a Polymarket account called "AlphaRaccoon" started placing bets. Between October and December 2025, FBI Special Agent Brandon Racz alleges, Spagnuolo accessed Google's confidential Year in Search data and then, sometimes within hours, placed wagers on Polymarket that reflected exactly what he had seen. On or about 15 October 2025, Spagnuolo allegedly accessed the internal tool. The following day, the AlphaRaccoon account wagered approximately $403 (€373) on Kendrick Lamar being the number one searched person of 2025 at the implied odds of just 3% and roughly $10,807 (€10,022) against Pope Leo XIV taking the top spot. He allegedly knew this, according to prosecutors, because the internal data already told him so. Betting against the crowd What makes the alleged scheme particularly striking is how it worked in practice. Because Spagnuolo allegedly knew who would not top the rankings, he could bet heavily against the crowd's favourites and collected winnings when popular picks failed to materialise. The AlphaRaccoon account wagered approximately $937,688 (€869,083) on the "no" side of the question of whether Bianca Censori would be the number one searched person at a time when the market put her odds at around 85%. It bet roughly $613,587 (€568,628) against Pope Leo XIV at 56% implied probability, and approximately $509,149 (€471,741) against Donald Trump at around 90%. In total, across roughly 25 bets on Year in Search outcomes, AlphaRaccoon risked approximately $2.75mn (€2.55mn). When Google published its results on 4 December 2025, confirming its global top five trending people as d4vd, Kendrick Lamar, Jimmy Kimmel, Tyler Robinson and Pope Leo XIV, the account walked away with approximately $1.2mn (€1.11m) in profit. The cover-up Once the markets resolved, roughly $3.9mn (€3.6mn) in USDC.e -- a cryptocurrency tied to the value of the US dollar -- was released to the AlphaRaccoon account. On 10 December, the account transferred approximately $5mn (€4.6mn) to a linked cryptocurrency wallet. Polymarket used USDC.e as its main payment currency for trading and settlements on the Polygon blockchain network. From there, according to the complaint, the funds passed through at least two cryptocurrency swaps before being moved into a service that prosecutors say was designed to make the transactions harder to trace. Meanwhile, online communities on Discord and X had already begun speculating that AlphaRaccoon was a Google insider. Shortly afterwards, the username was quietly removed from the account, reverting it to an anonymous alphanumeric string. The FBI traced the wallet anyway. Prosecutors allege cryptocurrency records linked the AlphaRaccoon account to a wallet that had sent approximately $149,980 (€138,916) to a payment processor account registered in the name of Michele Spagnuolo using an Italian government identification card. The charges Spagnuolo faces three charges. The first is commodities fraud, based on allegations that he used material nonpublic information to execute trades on Polymarket, which prosecutors are treating as a platform offering commodity-linked contracts. The second is wire fraud, relating to the alleged misuse of Google's confidential commercial information for personal gain. The third is money laundering, tied to prosecutors' claims that he took steps after December 2025 to conceal the source and ownership of the proceeds. The complaint was sworn before US Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn in the Southern District of New York. The case follows that of US Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who was charged in April with allegedly using classified information about a US military operation targeting Nicolás Maduro to place winning bets on Polymarket. Prosecutors say Van Dyke turned roughly $33,000 in wagers into more than $400,000 in profit. He has pleaded not guilty.
Google Engineer Arrested For Using Company's Own Search Data To Win $1.2 Million On Polymarket
Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure A Google information security engineer has been arrested and charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering after allegedly using confidential internal company data to place a series of bets on Polymarket -- the crypto-based prediction market platform -- winning approximately $1.2 million by knowing the outcomes of his wagers before the trading public did. The US Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York unsealed the complaint against Michele Spagnuolo, 36 -- also known by his Polymarket account alias "AlphaRaccoon" -- on May 27, 2026. Spagnuolo, an Italian citizen residing in Switzerland, was arrested in New York and appeared before US Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn, where he was released on a $2.25 million bond secured by $1 million in cash, per the DOJ's official statement. He did not enter a plea. ETH's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: ETHUSD on Tradingview How The Scheme Worked According to the unsealed complaint, Spagnuolo had access to an internal Google software tool -- bearing a banner marked "Google Confidential" in red text -- that provided real-time visibility into what users were searching across Google's platform, including data that fed directly into Google's annual "Year in Search" rankings, per the DOJ filing. Beginning in May 2024, Spagnuolo created a Polymarket account and began placing bets on contracts tied to which individuals would rank on Google's most-searched list for 2025 -- markets Polymarket launched last fall, per the complaint. Prosecutors allege Spagnuolo transferred approximately $3.8 million in USDC to his Polymarket address and placed bets including a $381.12 "yes" wager that the artist d4vd would rank in Google's most-searched list and correctly predicted contracts such as "Will Zohran Mamdani rank in the Top 5 most searched" and "Will Squid Game be the number one searched TV show," per CNBC's reporting of the complaint. His success rate across these markets was, according to the complaint, no accident. He knew the answers before the markets settled. The CFTC filed a simultaneous civil case against Spagnuolo seeking monetary disgorgement, restitution, and additional penalties, per the complaint. Google confirmed it had placed Spagnuolo on leave and was cooperating with law enforcement -- noting that the tool he used was technically available to all employees, but that using confidential information to place bets represented a serious breach of company policy, per a statement reported by ABC News. The Second Case In Thirty Days The Spagnuolo arrest is the second federal criminal case tied to Polymarket insider trading in just over a month. In April 2026, US Army Special Forces Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was arrested for allegedly using classified military knowledge of the planned capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to place bets on Polymarket, reportedly netting more than $400,000. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty, per CNN's reporting. Polymarket's chief legal officer Olivia Chalos said in a statement that the company worked closely with the US Attorney's Office and the CFTC on the Spagnuolo case -- noting that Polymarket is the only prediction platform to date whose cooperation has led to insider trading charges in the United States, and that the blockchain-based nature of the platform means bad actors leave footprints. This development marks a critical and accelerating moment for the nascent prediction market sector. Two federal insider trading arrests in thirty days -- one involving military classified information, the other corporate search data -- arriving simultaneously with an active congressional investigation into Polymarket and Kalshi, confirms that the legal perimeter around prediction markets is closing fast. The transparency of blockchain trading, once seen primarily as a feature for users, is now functioning as a forensic trail for federal prosecutors. Cover image from Grok, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview
