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Israel Airspace Closure Odds: What Polymarket Signals Mean
Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You could lose all of your capital. Israel Airspace closure odds remain in focus as regional tensions involving Iran and its proxies continue to shape assessments of potential restrictions on Israeli airspace. A Polymarket market titled "Israel closes its airspace by...?" has drawn over $29.9 million in trading volume, with the September 30 outcome currently pricing at 95% (Yes shares trading at 95¢, No at 5¢). The high probability reflects traders monitoring the possibility of temporary flight suspensions or broader closures during the market's resolution window. Aviation officials recommended an immediate closure of Ben Gurion Airport in early September amid fresh Iranian missile launches. Authorities nevertheless kept operations open while carrying out ongoing situation assessments. Why the Israel Airspace closure odds have risen Market interest in the Israel Airspace Closure Odds follows renewed regional tension rather than a single confirmed policy decision. Hezbollah missile activity and Houthi threats remain part of the broader risk picture, alongside U.S.-Iran military exchanges since the breakdown of a July ceasefire and recent Iranian strikes on regional U.S. assets. Regulatory caution has also been evident. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency issued an information note on August 31 that remains valid through September 30, advising heightened caution across the Tel Aviv flight information region due to risks associated with ballistic missiles and drones. This is an advisory for operators assessing risk, not a closure order for Israeli airspace. Each of these factors could influence decisions on flight operations, but none, on its own, confirms that a nationwide civilian closure has occurred or will occur. Discover: The Best Token Presales What a market signal does - and does not - prove A prediction market reflects the expectations of participants and the terms of the event being traded. It can be useful as an indication of how traders are interpreting headline risk, but it does not replace official notices, operational directives or the underlying facts on the ground. Readers should therefore separate a market's implied view from a determination made by Israeli aviation or security authorities. Historical aviation data illustrates why terminology needs careful handling. Flightradar24 reported in March that Israeli airspace was technically closed with prior permission required. At the same time, the tracker recorded 75 departing and 52 arriving aircraft at Ben Gurion Airport over a 24-hour period and described the airspace as only partially closed. That was a report from an earlier escalation cycle, not a statement of conditions in September, but it shows that a formal restriction can coexist with continuing flight activity. What could change before September 30 Developments in the remaining period may affect both aviation operations and market expectations. A significant escalation in Iranian or proxy attacks could lead security and aviation authorities to impose additional temporary restrictions or a broader closure. Conversely, operations could continue under heightened caution and limited restrictions without a wider shutdown. The available evidence does not establish which outcome will occur. For anyone following the contract, the most relevant information is likely to be official aviation notices, airport operating updates and EASA's conflict-zone guidance. Those sources address the operational status directly. Market activity may show how participants are interpreting risk, but it should not be treated as confirmation that an airspace closure has been ordered.
Gangwon Police Summon Polymarket Users in Illegal Gambling Probe
Users Claim Platform Is Investment, Not Gambling; Legal Challenge Looms Police have confirmed that they have notified domestic users of the world's largest prediction market platform, Polymarket, to appear for investigation on charges of illegal gambling. Polymarket is classified as an illegal private gambling operation in South Korea. Users argue that applying gambling charges to a prediction market, which they claim is a virtual asset derivatives investment market, is difficult. On the 8th, according to police, the Gangwon Provincial Police Agency notified Polymarket's domestic users en masse to appear the previous day as part of an ongoing investigation into gambling charges. The investigation targets Polymarket users residing nationwide, including in Gangwon Province. Since launching the first investigation into domestic Polymarket users in June of this year, the police have accelerated their probe. Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users wager virtual assets on the outcomes of future events in politics, economics, sports, and social issues in the real world. The Korea Media and Communications Standards Commission resolved on August 18 to request corrective measures (access blocking) against Polymarket, stating that it corresponds to information aimed at aiding gambling and establishing gambling venues under the Criminal Act, as well as "similar acts" under the National Sports Promotion Act. Under current laws, all betting activities on platforms other than Sports Toto (operated by the Korea Sports Promotion Foundation, with a betting limit of 100,000 Korean won) are illegal. Domestic Polymarket users could face fines of up to 10 million Korean won under Article 246 of the Criminal Act (gambling and habitual gambling). Jin Hyunsoo, a virtual asset specialist lawyer at Decent Law Firm, who represents some of the domestic Polymarket users under investigation, stated, "It seems unreasonable to uniformly classify prediction markets, which lack guidelines and do not cause social disorder like actual gambling, as the same category of illegal gambling. There is sufficient room to view prediction markets as virtual asset derivative investments, and we will refute the investigative agency's logic."
Polymarket Odds: Will ORCL, GME, BRZE Beat Earnings Tomorrow?
On Tuesday, September 8, Oracle (ORCL), GameStop (GME), and Braze (BRZE) will report their earnings. All three companies will publish their results after the market closes. Traders are already weighing in with their expectations on Polymarket. Wall Street's Earnings Estimates * Oracle is expected to report an adjusted EPS of $1.74. * GameStop is expected to report an adjusted EPS of 27 cents. * Braze is expected to report an adjusted EPS of 15 cents. What is Polymarket? Polymarket is a prediction platform where traders bet on the outcomes of real-world events, including earnings reports, elections, and economic indicators. Polymarket odds reflect expectations and can provide insight into investor sentiment. Will Oracle Beat Earnings? Oracle has beaten or met earnings estimates during 12 of the past 18 quarters for a success rate of 66.67%. Polymarket gives the multinational tech giant an 88% chance of beating its estimated adjusted EPS of $1.74. Will GameStop Beat Earnings? GameStop has beaten or met earnings estimates during 13 of the past 18 quarters for a success rate of 72.22%. Polymarket gives the video game retailer a 43% chance of beating its estimated adjusted EPS of 27 cents. Will Braze Beat Earnings? Braze has beaten or met earnings estimates during 16 of the past 18 quarters for a success rate of 88.89%. Polymarket gives the customer engagement platform a 37% chance of beating its estimated adjusted EPS of 15 cents. Disclosure: Polymarket odds reflect expectations, not guaranteed outcomes. The odds represent the views and expectations of traders, but actual earnings results can differ significantly from these predictions. Investors should treat Polymarket data as just one tool when evaluating their investment decisions.
Polymarket Gives Former IDF Chief Eisenkot 51 Percent Chance Of Unseating Netanyahu
JERUSALEM (VINnews) -- A major prediction market on Monday put former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the most likely person to lead Israel after the next election. Polymarket said Eisenkot had a 51 percent chance of becoming the next prime minister, compared with 28 percent for Netanyahu. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett stood at 8 percent, and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman at about 5 percent. The market had drawn more than $36 million in trading volume. The platform's official account called the shift "breaking" news, saying the centrist former military chief was now projected to unseat Netanyahu. The figures are not an official poll. They reflect how traders are pricing the chance that a candidate will be sworn in as prime minister after Israel's Oct. 27 Knesset election. In Israel's parliamentary system, the largest party does not automatically form the government. A bloc still needs 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Eisenkot, 66, heads the Yashar party, whose name means "straight" or "honest" in Hebrew. He served as IDF chief of staff from 2015 to 2019 and sat in Netanyahu's war Cabinet after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre before resigning in 2024, saying the government lacked a coherent strategy in Gaza. His son, Gal, was killed in combat in Gaza. Polls in recent months have shown Yashar running even with or slightly ahead of Likud, with Eisenkot often matching or beating Netanyahu when voters are asked who is more suited to be prime minister. Coalition arithmetic remains tight. Surveys have frequently left both the Netanyahu camp and the anti-Netanyahu Zionist parties short of a majority without additional partners. Eisenkot has rejected the idea of a Palestinian state after Oct. 7, calling that view "delusional," while criticizing some government settlement moves and far-right ministers. He has said haredi parties could sit in a government he leads and has floated a draft framework he describes as more moderate than other opposition plans, a point of interest in recent contacts with Degel HaTorah and comments from Shas spiritual leader Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef. Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, has framed the election as a choice between wartime leadership and a weaker, divided alternative. His bloc has struggled in polls after the wars that followed Oct. 7. Polymarket resolves the contract based on who is formally appointed and sworn in after the election, not on who wins the most seats. An interim or caretaker prime minister would not count. Odds can move quickly before Election Day and during coalition talks that often follow.
Polymarket and Kalshi face possible regulation as Supreme Court 'monitors the situation'
Picture it: Prediction markets like Kalshi, platforms which allow users to make "predictions" on almost anything for financial gain, platforms which are plagued with accusations of insider trading, are actually regulated by U.S. state governments under gambling laws. It could be a future possibility, if the Supreme Court could be convinced to make it happen. As reported by The Hill, multiple states have filed petitions to enforce sports gambling laws on Kalshi and platforms like it, including New Jersey and Nevada, which are respectively home to gambling hubs Atlantic City and Las Vegas. And the outcomes of each case could potentially see the eventual involvement of the Supreme Court. In the U.S., each state regulates its own gambling laws, including sports betting, which is legal in 39 states and Washington DC as of May 2026. However, Kalshi and "prediction market" platforms like it are federally regulated, sitting under the watch of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees America's financial derivatives markets. (Polymarket is actually not registered in the U.S. or regulated by the CFTC, though it has established a U.S. outpost which is.) This means these platforms can operate in all 50 states and currently do not answer to state gambling laws -- Kalshi has argued it offers "legal sports event contracts," not bets. However, a bipartisan coalition of 44 states signed a letter in July, declaring prediction market platforms "a new form of casino used primarily for a few to manipulate others -- the type of harms squarely within States' historic police powers to regulate gambling." Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has insisted "it is critically important that the CFTC's exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive," even considering his own platform. The president's son, Donald Trump Jr., not only has a financial stake and an advisory role in Kalshi, but is also set to see his venture capital firm invest $300 million in Polymarket. On Sept. 2, New Jersey officials petitioned the Supreme Court to enforce sports gambling laws on Kalshi. "Kalshi bills itself as 'the first app for legal sports betting in all 50 states' and believes it can offer that 'legal sports betting' without following the sports-gambling laws of any of those 50 States," the petition read. The petitioners -- New Jersey attorney general Jennifer Davenport and New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement interim director Mary Jo Flaherty -- said that Kalshi and platforms like it had "discovered a major sports-gambling loophole in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act" enacted after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The Act, they said, allows Kalshi to define its offerings as financial "swaps" instead of "bets." The important part here is that in April, the New Jersey case was actually ruled by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit in favor of Kalshi, meaning the platform could keep on offering its "legal sports event contracts" on college sports within the state's jurisdiction. However, that decision clashes with another decision made in Aug. by the Ninth Circuit, which covers Nevada among other states. An appeal from the Nevada Gaming Control Board saw the Court of Appeals siding not with Kalshi but with the state gaming regulator, which "sent a cease-and-desist letter notifying Kalshi that it was running a sports betting platform in violation of Nevada statutes and gaming regulations." Essentially, the differing state results could get SCOTUS' attention on a federal level. Similar cases have been filed in Connecticut, New York, Arizona, Minnesota, and more states. Next stop? The Supreme Court appeal from the New Jersey regulators. However, actually getting SCOTUS to consider the request isn't guaranteed, with the court receiving thousands each year and granting very few for consideration. Want more tech news delivered to your inbox daily or sent straight to your device? Sign up for Mashable's Top Stories newsletter or get Mashable push alerts.
Kalshi, Polymarket face possible regulation with appeal aimed at SCOTUS
SCOTUS is the focus for state regulators aimed at Kalshi. Credit: Omar Marques / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images Picture it: Prediction markets like Kalshi, platforms which allow users to make "predictions" on almost anything for financial gain, platforms which are plagued with accusations of insider trading, are actually regulated by U.S. state governments under gambling laws.It could be a future possibility, if the Supreme Court could be convinced to make it happen.As reported by The Hill, multiple states have filed petitions to enforce sports gambling laws on Kalshi and platforms like it, including New Jersey and Nevada, which are respectively home to gambling hubs Atlantic City and Las Vegas. And the outcomes of each case could potentially see the eventual involvement of the Supreme Court. SEE ALSO: France orders Polymarket blocked over illegal gambling promotion In the U.S., each state regulates its own gambling laws, including sports betting, which is legal in 39 states and Washington DC as of May 2026. However, Kalshi and "prediction market" platforms like it are federally regulated, sitting under the watch of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees America's financial derivatives markets. (Polymarket is actually not registered in the U.S. or regulated by the CFTC, though it has established a U.S. outpost which is.) This means these platforms can operate in all 50 states and currently do not answer to state gambling laws -- Kalshi has argued it offers "legal sports event contracts," not bets.However, a bipartisan coalition of 44 states signed a letter in July, declaring prediction market platforms "a new form of casino used primarily for a few to manipulate others -- the type of harms squarely within States' historic police powers to regulate gambling."Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has insisted "it is critically important that the CFTC's exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive," even considering his own platform. The president's son, Donald Trump Jr., not only has a financial stake and an advisory role in Kalshi, but is also set to see his venture capital firm invest $300 million in Polymarket. 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data.playlistItemCallback = function (item, index) { if (item.title) { document.getElementById("video-title-container-01M1YKZR0K89WWZRKGWE9WHY2C").innerText = item.title; } }; window.videoEmbeds.push({ elemId: 'video-container-01M1YKZR0K89WWZRKGWE9WHY2C', data: data, videoPlayerType: 'related', }); })() How prediction markets got people betting on nuclear war On Sept. 2, New Jersey officials petitioned the Supreme Court to enforce sports gambling laws on Kalshi. "Kalshi bills itself as 'the first app for legal sports betting in all 50 states' and believes it can offer that 'legal sports betting' without following the sports-gambling laws of any of those 50 States," the petition read. The petitioners -- New Jersey attorney general Jennifer Davenport and New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement interim director Mary Jo Flaherty -- said that Kalshi and platforms like it had "discovered a major sports-gambling loophole in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act" enacted after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The Act, they said, allows Kalshi to define its offerings as financial "swaps" instead of "bets."The important part here is that in April, the New Jersey case was actually ruled by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit in favor of Kalshi, meaning the platform could keep on offering its "legal sports event contracts" on college sports within the state's jurisdiction. However, that decision clashes with another decision made in Aug. by the Ninth Circuit, which covers Nevada among other states. An appeal from the Nevada Gaming Control Board saw the Court of Appeals siding not with Kalshi but with the state gaming regulator, which "sent a cease-and-desist letter notifying Kalshi that it was running a sports betting platform in violation of Nevada statutes and gaming regulations." Essentially, the differing state results could get SCOTUS' attention on a federal level.Similar cases have been filed in Connecticut, New York, Arizona, Minnesota, and more states.Next stop? The Supreme Court appeal from the New Jersey regulators. However, actually getting SCOTUS to consider the request isn't guaranteed, with the court receiving thousands each year and granting very few for consideration.Want more tech news delivered to your inbox daily or sent straight to your device? Sign up for Mashable's Top Stories newsletter or get Mashable push alerts.
Polymarket extends upgraded $50 code "OREGON" to Elections and UFC live odds
The Polymarket code OREGON has been extended to UFC odds, and its $50 bonus is live on a $10 deposit for Saturday's Fight Night. New users registering with the Polymarket code OREGON receive a $50 Polymarket sign up bonus after a first deposit of $10 -- a $60 opening balance across every market on the platform. Saturday's UFC card is drawing volume on Polymarket US, with traders repricing the lightweight and featherweight bouts through the week. The Polymarket code OREGON is verified and active as of September 5, 2026, and open to all eligible new US accounts, including readers in Oregon. What separates this Polymarket code and its bonus from most is the entry cost. The required deposit is $10, not $50 or $100, and the $50 bonus is five times that stake, credited immediately. The bonus is not restricted to Polymarket UFC markets either -- it is live across the full board, from Saturday's Fight Night to the 2028 presidential market drawing record volume. Polymarket Code OREGON: Key Terms and Bonus Details (September 5, 2026) * The Polymarket code is OREGON. * Entering OREGON and depositing $10 returns a $50 bonus, for $60 in total trading funds. * The Polymarket code OREGON is verified and active as of September 5, 2026. * It is entered in the promo/referral field at registration and cannot be applied to an existing account. * The $50 bonus is open to new Polymarket US accounts only, one per user. * Bonus funds work on every open market, including Polymarket UFC odds and the politics board. Polymarket Code OREGON: How to Claim the $50 Bonus Tip: the code has to go in during registration. A Polymarket code cannot be applied to an account that already exists, and expired codes will not return the bonus. Polymarket Code OREGON: Terms and Conditions * Bonus: $50 in trading funds * Deposit required: $10 minimum first deposit * Total starting balance: $60 * Code: OREGON * Where it goes: The promo/referral field at registration * Eligibility: New Polymarket US accounts only; one per user * Active as of: September 5, 2026 * Usage: Valid on all open Polymarket odds and prediction markets -- UFC, politics, crypto, finance, and global events * Withdrawal: Subject to Polymarket's standard terms; review current terms at Polymarket.com What Is the $50 Polymarket Bonus Worth? The bonus attached to OREGON is $50 in trading funds on a $10 deposit -- a 500% match, the largest ratio of any new-user bonus currently running on a US prediction market, delivered as tradeable funds rather than a restricted credit. A $60 opening balance spread across Polymarket UFC markets, the lightweight title futures, and the politics board gives a new trader room to take several positions rather than one, with no market restriction and no minimum trading volume before it unlocks. Polymarket UFC Odds for Saturday's Fight Night: What the Market Is Pricing Saturday's Fight Night is live on Polymarket US, and two of the main-card bouts are drawing steady action. On Polymarket, each cent price is the market's implied probability -- a fighter at 58¢ is priced at roughly a 58% chance to win. The total is priced on whether the fight goes over or under 2.5 rounds: Polymarket odds update in real time and may shift before the walkouts. All figures current as of September 5, 2026. Track live Polymarket UFC odds for Saturday's Fight Night. Polymarket UFC Futures: Lightweight Champion at the End of 2026 The same $60 balance reaches the futures board, where the lightweight title picture is one of the most lopsided markets in the division. Polymarket has Justin Gaethje priced as a heavy favorite to hold the belt at year's end: Market resolves at the end of 2026. Figures current as of September 5, 2026; several more fighters are priced in the same market. View live Polymarket UFC futures. Polymarket Politics Markets: 2028 Presidential Winner Polymarket's politics markets are the platform's highest-volume category outside sports, and the Polymarket code OREGON unlocks them on the same $10 deposit as UFC. The 2028 presidential winner market has cleared nearly $700 million in volume and is repricing continuously. Here is how the top of the field is currently priced: Figures current as of September 5, 2026. The four names above lead a wider field of more than 50 candidates priced in the same market. View live Polymarket politics markets. Polymarket Code vs. Kalshi Promo Code vs. DraftKings Promo Code: Three platforms are courting new customers into Saturday's Fight Night. Two are prediction markets, one is a sportsbook: Polymarket runs fully peer-to-peer -- every trade is matched between users, and Polymarket odds tend to move first on breaking fight news. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange matching limit orders; its Kalshi promo code OREGONLIVE1 and Kalshi referral code OREGONLIVE1 point to the same flat 100% deposit match -- $25 in bonus funds on a $25 deposit, for $50 total, with no minimum trade count. DraftKings is a licensed sportsbook where the reward arrives as non-withdrawable bonus bets -- signing up with this DraftKings promo code unlocks Spend $5, Get $200 in Bonuses after a $5 qualifying bet. On entry cost alone, the Polymarket code OREGON is the least demanding: $10 in, $60 to trade, no volume requirement. Do You Need a DraftKings Promo Code to Claim the Bonus? No. DraftKings does not require a DraftKings promo code at registration -- a persistent misconception. The DraftKings bonus attaches automatically when a new customer signs up through an eligible link and places a qualifying $5 bet. Polymarket is the opposite: the Polymarket code OREGON must be entered at sign-up, or the $50 bonus is never granted. Other Verified Polymarket Codes for Saturday's Fight Night: The Polymarket code OREGON is one of five verified codes carrying the same $50 bonus on a $10 deposit as of September 5, 2026: Each is sourced through Polymarket's official affiliate program. Conclusion: Use the $50 Bonus with Polymarket Code OREGON for Saturday's UFC Fight Night! Saturday's UFC card is one of the busiest Polymarket UFC markets on the board, and the walkouts are the window to fund an account. Registering with the Polymarket code OREGON takes under five minutes and turns a $10 deposit into $60 of trading funds. The Polymarket code OREGON is verified, active as of September 5, 2026, and limited to new users -- it cannot be reused, and it will not carry the bonus once that window closes.
LeBron James Teases New Partnership With Prediction-Market Polymarket | Market Polymarket
LeBron James has teased a partnership with Polymarket after visiting the prediction-market company's headquarters. The Philadelphia 76ers forward shared a 14-second video on X and Instagram on Saturday. He captioned the clip, "Welcome to Polymarket HQ. Coming soon," while identifying it as a partnership with Polymarket. The video provides few details about the deal. It remains unclear whether James will appear in Polymarket advertising or take on a broader role. Polymarket reposted the video and thanked James for visiting its headquarters. James' Free Agency Drew Heavy Trading The teaser follows James' recent free-agency decision, which generated about $273 million in prediction-market trading. Traders largely f... Read The Full Article LeBron James Teases New Partnership With Prediction-Market Polymarket On Coin Edition.
Polymarket Launches Perpetual Oil Futures in 24/7 Trading Push
(Bloomberg) -- Polymarket has launched perpetual futures contracts tied to oil, stepping into a market that rival Kalshi Inc. is also seeking to enter as trading venues compete to offer round-the-clock access to the commodity. Most Read from Bloomberg The company announced the launch Thursday as part of a broader rollout of perpetual futures spanning crypto, stocks and commodities including gold and silver. Among them are two never-expiring contracts linked to the Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil benchmarks, a type of derivative facing scrutiny over its potential impact on price discovery in physical markets. The launch comes a day after it was reported that Kalshi is seeking regulatory approval for its own perpetual futures contract linked to West Texas Intermediate oil. If approved, it would be the first contract of its kind to trade on a regulated US platform. Polymarket's contracts will trade offshore and won't be available to US-based traders, putting the venue in more direct competition for now with exchanges including Hyperliquid and Binance. Perpetual futures are derivatives with no expiration date and built-in leverage, allowing customers to amplify the risk they take with each trade. The contracts surged in popularity during the Iran war as one of the few ways to trade oil while traditional futures markets were closed and have since become a flashpoint in the debate over whether weekend trading can influence prices once traditional markets reopen. There are other key differences between the Polymarket and Kalshi offerings. Unlike Polymarket's nonstop contract, Kalshi's oil-linked contract would trade 24 hours a day, five days a week. The structure was designed to address regulatory concerns raised in a Commodity Futures Trading Commission review of trading outside regular market hours, Bloomberg previously reported. Polymarket first telegraphed plans for the launch in April, though it was unclear at the time whether oil would be among the offerings. The contracts will allow traders to use up to 20 times leverage, according to a social media post by the venue. The ability of retail traders to take on outsized risk has been a key concern surrounding perpetual futures.
Polymarket Vows Insider Trading Crackdown as Traders Bet $12M on CLARITY Act
* Polymarket says it is strengthening its systems for identifying insider trading and other suspicious activity ahead of the US midterm elections. * Nearly $12 million has been traded on whether the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026, although traders currently give it only a 15% chance. * Rival Kalshi has permanently banned former congressman George Santos over trades linked to his own State of the Union attendance. Polymarket has pledged to intensify its crackdown on insider trading and other market misconduct as millions of dollars flow into politically sensitive prediction markets. The company's new investigations chief said it has surveillance systems capable of identifying abnormal trading ahead of the US midterm elections, when lawmakers expect activity on political contracts to surge. The assurances arrive as traders wager nearly $12 million on whether the CLARITY Act will become law before the end of 2026. Polymarket Chief Says Platform Can Detect Suspicious Trades Polymarket is preparing to disclose more information about the systems it uses to protect the integrity of its markets. The company's monitoring operation combines machine learning with blockchain analytics, open-source research and conventional trade surveillance, according to Reuters. Bautista, a former FBI investigator who joined the company in June, said she was confident Polymarket would provide the resources required to police its platform. She added that the company already had systems capable of detecting anomalous activity ahead of the midterms. Polymarket's international platform does not publicly reveal the identities behind individual accounts. However, its blockchain system creates a visible record of wallet transactions that investigators can examine. That information can help the company detect unusual trading patterns or connections between apparently separate accounts. Bautista told Reuters that Polymarket had referred more than 100 matters to law enforcement. Among the examples she cited was an account allegedly used by a US soldier to place trades connected to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Polymarket has faced separate questions over Americans accessing its international service. The CFTC penalized the company in 2022 for offering event contracts without obtaining the required registration. The resulting settlement required Polymarket to prevent US customers from using that platform. It later regained access to the US market by purchasing a federally registered exchange, which operates as the separate Polymarket US business.
Firm linked to Trump Jr. invests millions in Polymarket
WASHINGTON (TNND) -- An investment firm, where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, is making a major bet on the prediction-market platform Polymarket, leading a new $1 billion funding round that values the company at about $21 billion. 1789 Capital, a Florida-based venture capital firm where Trump Jr. is a partner, is said to be investing another $300 million on top of roughly $200 million it had already invested. The deal is drawing attention as prediction markets such as Polymarket and its rival, Kalshi, have surged in popularity over the past year, with millions of users betting billions of dollars on real-world events. The platforms allow users to bet money on outcomes tied to current events, from politics to entertainment. Events include who will win the Super Bowl, who will win "Love Island" or whether the U.S. will take military action abroad. If a user's prediction is right, they can make money; if it's wrong, someone else does. The platforms make money by placing fees on each bet. Kalshi has also made headlines this week after banning former Republican Congressman George Santos. The company took the action after Santos placed bets earlier this year on his own potential appearance at the State of the Union. Trump Jr., the president's oldest son, has ties to both Polymarket and Kalshi and is an advisor to both companies. When he joined Kalshi as an advisor last year, he received company shares reportedly worth more than $300,000. The investment is also being closely watched because it comes as the Trump administration has taken a friendly approach to prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that oversees the industry, has praised the companies and challenged state efforts to regulate them, and the leader of that commission is a Trump appointee. Critics have raised questions about whether the president's son's business ties could give the platforms an edge when it comes to federal regulations, or a lack thereof. There are also broader concerns about the industry, including whether people with inside information could profit from bets on politics, wars or other major events. Trump Jr. has said he invests as a private citizen and does not hold a policy role in his father's administration. As more money tied to the Trump family flows into Polymarket, questions about who profits -- and who regulates the industry -- are growing louder.
Firm linked to Trump Jr. invests millions in Polymarket
WASHINGTON (TNND) -- An investment firm, where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, is making a major bet on the prediction-market platform Polymarket, leading a new $1 billion funding round that values the company at about $21 billion. 1789 Capital, a Florida-based venture capital firm where Trump Jr. is a partner, is said to be investing another $300 million on top of roughly $200 million it had already invested. The deal is drawing attention as prediction markets such as Polymarket and its rival, Kalshi, have surged in popularity over the past year, with millions of users betting billions of dollars on real-world events. The platforms allow users to bet money on outcomes tied to current events, from politics to entertainment. Events include who will win the Super Bowl, who will win "Love Island" or whether the U.S. will take military action abroad. If a user's prediction is right, they can make money; if it's wrong, someone else does. The platforms make money by placing fees on each bet. Kalshi has also made headlines this week after banning former Republican Congressman George Santos. The company took the action after Santos placed bets earlier this year on his own potential appearance at the State of the Union. Trump Jr., the president's oldest son, has ties to both Polymarket and Kalshi and is an advisor to both companies. When he joined Kalshi as an advisor last year, he received company shares reportedly worth more than $300,000. The investment is also being closely watched because it comes as the Trump administration has taken a friendly approach to prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that oversees the industry, has praised the companies and challenged state efforts to regulate them, and the leader of that commission is a Trump appointee. Critics have raised questions about whether the president's son's business ties could give the platforms an edge when it comes to federal regulations, or a lack thereof. There are also broader concerns about the industry, including whether people with inside information could profit from bets on politics, wars or other major events. Trump Jr. has said he invests as a private citizen and does not hold a policy role in his father's administration. As more money tied to the Trump family flows into Polymarket, questions about who profits -- and who regulates the industry -- are growing louder.
Firm linked to Trump Jr. invests millions in Polymarket
WASHINGTON (TNND) -- An investment firm, where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, is making a major bet on the prediction-market platform Polymarket, leading a new $1 billion funding round that values the company at about $21 billion. 1789 Capital, a Florida-based venture capital firm where Trump Jr. is a partner, is said to be investing another $300 million on top of roughly $200 million it had already invested. The deal is drawing attention as prediction markets such as Polymarket and its rival, Kalshi, have surged in popularity over the past year, with millions of users betting billions of dollars on real-world events. The platforms allow users to bet money on outcomes tied to current events, from politics to entertainment. Events include who will win the Super Bowl, who will win "Love Island" or whether the U.S. will take military action abroad. If a user's prediction is right, they can make money; if it's wrong, someone else does. The platforms make money by placing fees on each bet. Kalshi has also made headlines this week after banning former Republican Congressman George Santos. The company took the action after Santos placed bets earlier this year on his own potential appearance at the State of the Union. Trump Jr., the president's oldest son, has ties to both Polymarket and Kalshi and is an advisor to both companies. When he joined Kalshi as an advisor last year, he received company shares reportedly worth more than $300,000. The investment is also being closely watched because it comes as the Trump administration has taken a friendly approach to prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that oversees the industry, has praised the companies and challenged state efforts to regulate them, and the leader of that commission is a Trump appointee. Critics have raised questions about whether the president's son's business ties could give the platforms an edge when it comes to federal regulations, or a lack thereof. There are also broader concerns about the industry, including whether people with inside information could profit from bets on politics, wars or other major events. Trump Jr. has said he invests as a private citizen and does not hold a policy role in his father's administration. As more money tied to the Trump family flows into Polymarket, questions about who profits -- and who regulates the industry -- are growing louder.
Firm linked to Trump Jr. invests millions in Polymarket
WASHINGTON (TNND) -- An investment firm, where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, is making a major bet on the prediction-market platform Polymarket, leading a new $1 billion funding round that values the company at about $21 billion. 1789 Capital, a Florida-based venture capital firm where Trump Jr. is a partner, is said to be investing another $300 million on top of roughly $200 million it had already invested. The deal is drawing attention as prediction markets such as Polymarket and its rival, Kalshi, have surged in popularity over the past year, with millions of users betting billions of dollars on real-world events. The platforms allow users to bet money on outcomes tied to current events, from politics to entertainment. Events include who will win the Super Bowl, who will win "Love Island" or whether the U.S. will take military action abroad. If a user's prediction is right, they can make money; if it's wrong, someone else does. The platforms make money by placing fees on each bet. Kalshi has also made headlines this week after banning former Republican Congressman George Santos. The company took the action after Santos placed bets earlier this year on his own potential appearance at the State of the Union. Trump Jr., the president's oldest son, has ties to both Polymarket and Kalshi and is an advisor to both companies. When he joined Kalshi as an advisor last year, he received company shares reportedly worth more than $300,000. The investment is also being closely watched because it comes as the Trump administration has taken a friendly approach to prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that oversees the industry, has praised the companies and challenged state efforts to regulate them, and the leader of that commission is a Trump appointee. Critics have raised questions about whether the president's son's business ties could give the platforms an edge when it comes to federal regulations, or a lack thereof. There are also broader concerns about the industry, including whether people with inside information could profit from bets on politics, wars or other major events. Trump Jr. has said he invests as a private citizen and does not hold a policy role in his father's administration. As more money tied to the Trump family flows into Polymarket, questions about who profits -- and who regulates the industry -- are growing louder.
Firm linked to Trump Jr. invests millions in Polymarket
WASHINGTON (TNND) -- An investment firm, where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, is making a major bet on the prediction-market platform Polymarket, leading a new $1 billion funding round that values the company at about $21 billion. 1789 Capital, a Florida-based venture capital firm where Trump Jr. is a partner, is said to be investing another $300 million on top of roughly $200 million it had already invested. The deal is drawing attention as prediction markets such as Polymarket and its rival, Kalshi, have surged in popularity over the past year, with millions of users betting billions of dollars on real-world events. The platforms allow users to bet money on outcomes tied to current events, from politics to entertainment. Events include who will win the Super Bowl, who will win "Love Island" or whether the U.S. will take military action abroad. If a user's prediction is right, they can make money; if it's wrong, someone else does. The platforms make money by placing fees on each bet. Kalshi has also made headlines this week after banning former Republican Congressman George Santos. The company took the action after Santos placed bets earlier this year on his own potential appearance at the State of the Union. Trump Jr., the president's oldest son, has ties to both Polymarket and Kalshi and is an advisor to both companies. When he joined Kalshi as an advisor last year, he received company shares reportedly worth more than $300,000. The investment is also being closely watched because it comes as the Trump administration has taken a friendly approach to prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that oversees the industry, has praised the companies and challenged state efforts to regulate them, and the leader of that commission is a Trump appointee. Critics have raised questions about whether the president's son's business ties could give the platforms an edge when it comes to federal regulations, or a lack thereof. There are also broader concerns about the industry, including whether people with inside information could profit from bets on politics, wars or other major events. Trump Jr. has said he invests as a private citizen and does not hold a policy role in his father's administration. As more money tied to the Trump family flows into Polymarket, questions about who profits -- and who regulates the industry -- are growing louder.
Firm linked to Trump Jr. invests millions in Polymarket
WASHINGTON (TNND) -- An investment firm, where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, is making a major bet on the prediction-market platform Polymarket, leading a new $1 billion funding round that values the company at about $21 billion. 1789 Capital, a Florida-based venture capital firm where Trump Jr. is a partner, is said to be investing another $300 million on top of roughly $200 million it had already invested. The deal is drawing attention as prediction markets such as Polymarket and its rival, Kalshi, have surged in popularity over the past year, with millions of users betting billions of dollars on real-world events. The platforms allow users to bet money on outcomes tied to current events, from politics to entertainment. Events include who will win the Super Bowl, who will win "Love Island" or whether the U.S. will take military action abroad. If a user's prediction is right, they can make money; if it's wrong, someone else does. The platforms make money by placing fees on each bet. Kalshi has also made headlines this week after banning former Republican Congressman George Santos. The company took the action after Santos placed bets earlier this year on his own potential appearance at the State of the Union. Trump Jr., the president's oldest son, has ties to both Polymarket and Kalshi and is an advisor to both companies. When he joined Kalshi as an advisor last year, he received company shares reportedly worth more than $300,000. The investment is also being closely watched because it comes as the Trump administration has taken a friendly approach to prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that oversees the industry, has praised the companies and challenged state efforts to regulate them, and the leader of that commission is a Trump appointee. Critics have raised questions about whether the president's son's business ties could give the platforms an edge when it comes to federal regulations, or a lack thereof. There are also broader concerns about the industry, including whether people with inside information could profit from bets on politics, wars or other major events. Trump Jr. has said he invests as a private citizen and does not hold a policy role in his father's administration. As more money tied to the Trump family flows into Polymarket, questions about who profits -- and who regulates the industry -- are growing louder.
Trump Jr's Firm Heads Polymarket's $1B Raise At A Strong $21B Valuation - Crypto Economy
* Trump Jr. leads through 1789 Capital a $1B round in Polymarket, valuing the platform at $21B. * The firm contributes an additional $300M to the $200M already invested, raising Polymarket's valuation 40% from the previous $15B. * The President's family accumulates positions across different prediction markets: Trump Jr. advises both Polymarket and Kalshi, where he received shares worth over $300,000. The venture capital firm of Donald Trump Jr., 1789 Capital, leads a $1 billion funding round in Polymarket that values the prediction markets platform at $21 billion. The information was confirmed by Alexa Henning, a spokesperson for the firm. The round represents a 40% jump from the previous valuation of $15 billion, recorded just months ago. Of that total, 1789 Capital will contribute approximately $300 million, added to a pre-existing position of around $200 million. The platform competes in the prediction markets segment alongside Kalshi, where users can bet on outcomes ranging from what a president says in a speech to who gets married on a reality show. Both platforms recorded very strong and consistent growth over the past year. Trump Jr. Bets on All Prediction Markets The President's family relationship with the prediction market continues to deepen. Trump Jr. took on an advisory role at Kalshi in 2025 and received shares valued at more than $300,000. Simultaneously, he serves in an advisory capacity at Polymarket, making 1789 Capital a player with direct interests in the two main competitors in the market. The regulatory landscape also evolved in favor of both platforms. Michael Selig, appointed by President Donald Trump to lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the body that regulates prediction markets, publicly praised these companies and initiated legal action against states that attempted to regulate them at the local level. In May, the president himself posted on Truth Social that prediction markets would thrive under his administration. Money Flows Where the Presidential Family Points The concentration of capital and political influence around Polymarket and Kalshi makes one thing clear: the Trump family built strategic positions in a segment that, at the same time, benefits from regulatory decisions made by the federal administration. The round led by 1789 Capital makes that connection evident and consolidates Polymarket as the best-capitalized platform in the sector.
Polymarket lands $300M from Trump Jr.-linked 1789 Capital at $21B valuation -- TFN
* Polymarket is reportedly raising around $1 billion in a new funding round led by 1789 Capital, with Donald Trump Jr.'s investment firm putting in about $300 million. * The deal values the prediction-market platform at approximately $21 billion post-money, up sharply from its $15 billion valuation just four months ago. * The latest financing would deepen 1789 Capital's position in Polymarket, after the firm previously invested about $200 million, while the prediction market continues to expand amid regulatory battles and intensifying competition from Kalshi. Donald Trump Jr. advises Polymarket. He also advises Kalshi, Polymarket's biggest rival, and holds Kalshi equity worth more than $300,000. Now his investment firm is putting another $300 million into Polymarket, part of a $1 billion round that values the prediction market platform at $21 billion, according to The Wall Street Journal. 1789 Capital, where Trump Jr. is a partner, had already invested about $200 million in Polymarket. The new money brings its total stake to around $500 million, making it one of the platform's largest backers. Trump Jr. has described his advisory roles at both companies as personal, telling the New York Times he acts with "no policy position and no role within the administration whatsoever." The $21 billion valuation is a 40% jump from the $15 billion mark Polymarket carried after an ICE-backed round closed in April, and puts it just under Kalshi, which raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in May. Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has put about $1.6 billion into Polymarket since October 2025, most of it under an agreement to commit up to $2 billion. Advising both sides Trump Jr. joined Polymarket's advisory board in 2025, shortly after 1789 Capital's first investment. His father's administration has argued that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, not individual states, should regulate prediction markets -- a position both companies are counting on as they fight lawsuits from state attorneys general and, in Polymarket's case, a Baltimore lawsuit alleging its sports contracts are unlicensed betting dressed up as event trading. Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee are separately looking into 1789 Capital's expansion, given how many of its portfolio companies, including SpaceX, Anduril and Cerebras, hold federal contracts. 1789 Capital has called the inquiry partisan, and it hasn't produced any findings of wrongdoing so far. The founder who emailed the SEC at 14 Polymarket's founder, Shayne Coplan, was 22 when he built the platform's first version alone from his apartment on New York's Lower East Side during the COVID-19 lockdown, after dropping out of NYU's computer science program. He bought Ethereum as a teenager for about $0.30 a token and, at 14, emailed the SEC about high-frequency trading rules. He's 28 now. The platform runs on the Polygon blockchain and lets users trade contracts on real-world outcomes, such as elections, sports, and economic data. Early backers included Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel's Founders Fund and Polychain Capital. Polymarket's annualized revenue has topped $1.2 billion, and it's been hiring out of Wall Street and Silicon Valley to match. Whether that growth outpaces the regulatory and political questions stacking up around it, including its biggest backer's family ties to the people who oversee it, is the harder thing to call.
Anthropic: Crypto Investors Are Willing to Pay a Valuation of Nearly $2 Trillion
Anthropic is preparing the largest IPO in history. Investment bankers have reportedly floated a listing worth up to $2 trillion for the maker of Claude, which would make it the most valuable company ever to go public, ahead of SpaceX. Whether that number holds is already being tested on crypto exchanges, where traders have been putting a price on Anthropic for months. And that price points to exactly the same territory. Almost $2,000 per Token On Binance, the ANTHROPICUSDT pre-IPO perpetual contract recently traded at $1,934.25. The exchange bases the contract on an estimated total of one billion Anthropic shares, while noting that the actual count may differ. Extrapolated, that implies a valuation of roughly $1.93 trillion. On the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, where Entropy runs the ANTH perp, the price sits at $1,934.50, effectively identical to the cent. For context: Anthropic's most recent funding round, a $65 billion Series H, valued the company at $965 billion. Crypto traders are paying precisely twice that. Anthropic Ahead of SpaceX and OpenAI A third picture comes from PreStocks, a platform that issues tokenized stakes on Solana and says they are backed by SPV exposure. An Anthropic token there costs around $871, and the platform derives an implied valuation of about $1.41 trillion from it, because it assumes considerably more than one billion shares outstanding. Per-token prices across venues are therefore not directly comparable, though the valuations derived from them are. The resulting ranking is telling. Anthropic leads at $1.41 trillion, ahead of SpaceX at roughly $1.36 trillion and OpenAI at about $1.14 trillion. Well behind them come Elon Musk's xAI at $247 billion, defense contractor Anduril at $133 billion, Neuralink at just under $52 billion, and the two prediction markets Kalshi at $33 billion and Polymarket at $13.6 billion. At that level, Anthropic would enter the ranks of the world's most valuable companies overnight, worth a multiple of European tech heavyweights such as SAP or ASML. These Are Not Shares Anyone buying these instruments is not buying a stake in Anthropic. The company issues no shares to the public and prohibits transfers to special purpose vehicles. In a recent statement, Anthropic said such transfers are void, and that third parties selling stakes through forwards or tokenized securities are either committing fraud or offering a product that may be worthless. PreStocks itself states in its terms that the tokens carry no ownership, voting, dividend or information rights, and that they are not available in the United States. What changes hands instead are derivatives, financial instruments whose value is derived from an underlying asset without the holder owning it. Settlement happens in cash. The specific form used on Binance and Hyperliquid is the perpetual future, or perp. A traditional future has an expiry date, a perp runs indefinitely. To keep its price tethered to the underlying, a mechanism called the funding rate kicks in: when the contract trades above the reference price, buyers pay a periodic fee to sellers, and the other way around. For listed companies, this keeps the perp close to the share price. For Anthropic, there is no share price to anchor it. The contract tracks nothing beyond the expectations of the traders holding it. On the regulated secondary market, where platforms such as Hiive and Forge broker actual employee shares with the company's approval, implied valuations have recently ranged between $830 billion and $1.2 trillion. The gap to the crypto price of $1.93 trillion is a fair gauge of how much imagination is currently priced into the AI market.
Donald Trump Jr's venture capital firm leads US$1 billion funding round for Polymarket
DONALD Trump Jr's venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, is leading a new funding round in Polymarket that values the prediction market at US$21 billion, a spokesperson for 1789 Capital said on Monday (Aug 31). Polymarket plans to raise US$1 billion, including around US$300 million from 1789 Capital, the spokesperson, Alexa Henning, said. The investment firm previously invested about US$200 million in the prediction market, which is currently valued at about US$15 billion. Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have exploded in popularity over the past year. The platforms allow users to place wagers on the outcome of a wide variety of events, such as what the president will say in a speech or who will get married on "Love Is Blind". The Trump family has built up a financial stake in the industry since last year. Donald Trump Jr joined Kalshi as an adviser in 2025 and received shares in the company worth more than US$300,000. He also began advising Polymarket and invested in it via 1789 Capital. At the same time, his father, US President Donald Trump, has taken steps to boost the industry. Michael S Selig, whom the president appointed to lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees prediction markets, has spoken enthusiastically about the companies and sued states that tried to regulate them. The president declared on Truth Social that prediction markets would "thrive" under his leadership and said Selig was "respected by all". Bloomberg earlier reported that 1789 Capital was leading Polymarket's funding round. Many of the companies that 1789 Capital has invested in have large government contracts, while others, like Polymarket, have benefited directly from new Trump policies or rollbacks of existing laws, The New York Times has reported. The investment firm also bought shares in some of the most coveted private companies before many went public, including SpaceX, Anduril, Cerebras and Reflection AI. Two years ago, 1789 Capital managed a few hundred million dollars. It now oversees more than US$3 billion. Donald Trump Jr told the Times in 2026 that he invested as a private citizen and held "no policy position and no role within the administration whatsoever". NYTIMES
