News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
Polymarket: $15 Billion Valuation Talks Highlight Rapid Rise Of Prediction Markets Platform
Polymarket is seeking to raise approximately $400 million in new funding, which would build on a previously reported $600 million investment and further cement its position as one of the most highly valued companies in the emerging event-based trading market, according to a Bloomberg report. The potential financing round would value the company at roughly $15 billion, representing a sharp increase from prior valuations, including approximately $9 billion in late 2025 following a major investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. Founded as a crypto-native prediction platform, Polymarket enables users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events across categories such as politics, economics, sports, and global affairs. The platform has seen rapid growth in both user activity and trading volume, reflecting broader interest in alternative data sources and market-based forecasting tools. The latest fundraising discussions underscore the increasing institutionalization of prediction markets, as traditional financial players explore their potential for sentiment analysis and trading signals. Intercontinental Exchange's prior investment, part of a broader plan to invest up to $2 billion, highlights the strategic importance of the space as exchanges look to expand beyond traditional derivatives. Polymarket's valuation trajectory has been notably steep, rising from around $1 billion in mid-2025 to potentially $15 billion within a year, driven by strong demand, expanding use cases, and growing integration into financial market analysis. The company is also reportedly evaluating whether to proceed with the current fundraising at the $15 billion valuation or delay in pursuit of a higher valuation, depending on investor appetite and market conditions. The development reflects a broader surge in interest around prediction markets, which are increasingly viewed as tools for aggregating real-time sentiment and forecasting outcomes, though they also face ongoing regulatory and ethical scrutiny as they scale.
Elon Musk Gets 'Moonshot' SpaceX Pay Package: Here's What That Means - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Elon Musk is about to take SpaceX public on terms that would get most CEOs laughed out of a roadshow. Investors are lining up to buy in. It is the governance setup Musk has publicly admitted he wishes he had locked in at Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) in 2010, where his roughly 18% stake leaves him technically removable. What Polymarket Is Pricing Polymarket traders give SpaceX a 72% chance of going public by June 30th and price a $1 trillion-plus closing market cap on day one at 93%. A $2 trillion debut is closer to a coin flip at 56%. That would edge out Saudi Aramco's 2019 listing as the largest IPO in history. Kalshi traders think there is a 3% chance that Trump will nationalize SpaceX before July 2026. The Power Grab Nobody Is Pushing Back On Shareholders will also have no say on pay. Tesla investors approved a potential $1 trillion award for Musk in November, and SpaceX's board has now granted him a second "moonshot" package tied to a market value as high as $6.6 trillion, according to The Information. Musk could be running two trillion-dollar incentive schemes in parallel, with compensation consultants warning he has obvious reasons to prioritize whichever looks more winnable at any given moment. He already owns roughly 40% of SpaceX after the February xAI merger. The IPO, the pay package, and the supervoting shares are designed to make sure that number only goes up. Image: Shutterstock Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.
France investigates suspected tampering with weather sensors after Polymarket bets
(CNN) -- A weather sensor in France's busiest airport, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, has been tampered with in what a French weather association says it suspects to be a betting scam. France's national meteorological agency, Meteo France, said in a statement sent to CNN on Thursday that it has formally filed a complaint regarding the "tampering of an automated data processing system" located in Charles de Gaulles Airport, used to measure daily temperatures for Paris. On two separate occasions in April, users of American betting platform Polymarket placed successful bets on unexpected temperature spikes in the French capital, CNN affiliate BFMTV reported. Launched in 2020, Polymarket allows users to place bets on future events, such as the highest temperature in a city on a given day. On April 6, around 7 p.m. local time (2 p.m. ET), the temperature sensor at Charles de Gaulles Airport rose suddenly to 22 degrees Celsius (about 71.6 Fahrenheit) before dropping back to cooler spring temperatures, according to BFM. The unusual spike was flagged by members of the French climate nonprofit association Infoclimat, when around 9:30 p.m. local time (4:30 p.m. ET), Meteo France recorded 22°C for Paris despite temperatures averaging 18°C (64.4°F) all afternoon. A Polymarket user then won $14,000 for placing a successful bet on 22°C. The second unexpected spike took place nine days later on April 15, when the temperature recorded by the Charles de Gaulle sensor once again reached 22°C, four degrees higher than the day before. This time a user on the Polymarket site won $20,000 for successfully betting on the 22°C reading. Infoclimat said it once again flagged the spike to Meteo France, with some climate enthusiasts speculating on the association's forum that a battery-powered hairdryer may have been used to tamper with the sensor, French newspaper Le Monde reported. The exact cause has yet to be confirmed. In the statement sent to CNN, Meteo France said it filed the complaint to airport police at Charles de Gaulle and that an investigation is now underway. Airport police declined CNN's request for comment. This is not the first time Polymarket has been ensnared in controversy. An exclusive CNN investigation published at the end of March found evidence that one trader made nearly a million dollars from successful bets on Polymarket over a two-year period by accurately predicting American and Israel military actions against Iran, which prompted suspicions of insider trading.
France Investigates Weather Data Tampering Amid Polymarket Betting Surge
France's weather forecasting office, Meteo France, has initiated an investigation into suspected tampering with weather sensors at Charles de Gaulle International Airport. This inquiry was prompted by anomalous temperature readings that coincided with heightened betting activity on Polymarket, a prominent prediction market. Unusual Temperature Readings Detected On April 6 and April 15, 2023, temperatures recorded at the airport surged unexpectedly, reaching spikes of 4°C and 5°C, respectively. These anomalies resulted in the highest temperature readings at the site on those dates. Such data is crucial for the safe operations of the airport and significantly impacts betting outcomes on Polymarket. Surge in Betting on Polymarket The unusual weather data coincided with approximately $1.4 million in bets on temperature contracts related to Paris. This betting volume was more than double the typical levels for daily Paris temperature contracts during that month. * April 6: Temperature spike of 4°C * April 15: Temperature spike of 5°C * Combined betting reached $1.4 million Investigation and Responses Following the data anomalies, Meteo France technicians conducted an examination of the sensor data and the weather station itself. Subsequently, a formal complaint about possible tampering was filed with the airport police. However, specifics regarding the case remain undisclosed as both the airport authorities and law enforcement have declined to comment further. The investigation's scrutiny comes at a time when prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi Inc. have attracted significant attention. While supporters argue these markets enhance information and forecasting accuracy, critics express concerns about their potential for manipulation and other unethical practices. Impact on Aviation Operations Meteorologist Ruben Hallali, CEO of HD Rain, highlighted the serious implications of inaccurate weather data for aviation safety. He noted that the temperature readings are critical for pilots and air traffic controllers, affecting takeoffs, landings, and overall flight safety. Hallali was one of the first to flag the unusual data to Meteo France. He pointed out that on April 15, temperatures fluctuated drastically, causing concerns among meteorologists and traders alike. Transition in Data Sources As of April 19, Polymarket announced a shift to using weather data collected from Paris-Le Bourget Airport instead of Charles de Gaulle, likely as a precaution amid the ongoing investigation. The integrity of weather data remains paramount, and any tampering could have dangerous repercussions within the aviation sector. The investigation continues as authorities seek to uncover the truth behind the reported data anomalies.
France investigates suspected tampering with weather sensors after Polymarket bets
By Niamh Kennedy, Lisa Courbebaisse, Elina Baudier Kim, CNN (CNN) -- A weather sensor in France's busiest airport, Paris-Charles de Gaulle, has been tampered with in what a French weather association says it suspects to be a betting scam. France's national meteorological agency, Meteo France, said in a statement sent to CNN on Thursday that it has formally filed a complaint regarding the "tampering of an automated data processing system" located in Charles de Gaulles Airport, used to measure daily temperatures for Paris. On two separate occasions in April, users of American betting platform Polymarket placed successful bets on unexpected temperature spikes in the French capital, CNN affiliate BFMTV reported. Launched in 2020, Polymarket allows users to place bets on future events, such as the highest temperature in a city on a given day. On April 6, around 7 p.m. local time (2 p.m. ET), the temperature sensor at Charles de Gaulles Airport rose suddenly to 22 degrees Celsius (about 71.6 Fahrenheit) before dropping back to cooler spring temperatures, according to BFM. The unusual spike was flagged by members of the French climate nonprofit association Infoclimat, when around 9:30 p.m. local time (4:30 p.m. ET), Meteo France recorded 22°C for Paris despite temperatures averaging 18°C (64.4°F) all afternoon. A Polymarket user then won $14,000 for placing a successful bet on 22°C. The second unexpected spike took place nine days later on April 15, when the temperature recorded by the Charles de Gaulle sensor once again reached 22°C, four degrees higher than the day before. This time a user on the Polymarket site won $20,000 for successfully betting on the 22°C reading. Infoclimat said it once again flagged the spike to Meteo France, with some climate enthusiasts speculating on the association's forum that a battery-powered hairdryer may have been used to tamper with the sensor, French newspaper Le Monde reported. The exact cause has yet to be confirmed. In the statement sent to CNN, Meteo France said it filed the complaint to airport police at Charles de Gaulle and that an investigation is now underway. Airport police declined CNN's request for comment. This is not the first time Polymarket has been ensnared in controversy. An exclusive CNN investigation published at the end of March found evidence that one trader made nearly a million dollars from successful bets on Polymarket over a two-year period by accurately predicting American and Israel military actions against Iran, which prompted suspicions of insider trading. CNN has reached out to Polymarket for comment. The-CNN-Wire ™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
Polymarket Diving into Perp Futures for Long and Short Assets Trading - Tekedia
Polymarket announced they're launching perpetual futures (perps), letting users go long or short on assets; crypto like BTC, equities like NVDA, commodities like gold with leverage at least 10x mentioned in reports, 24/7, no expiry. We price the future, Now you can lever it. It's a direct expansion beyond binary event contracts. This move and Kalshi racing them on similar perps plans shows smart business: Prediction markets excel at high-conviction, event-driven pricing -- crowd wisdom on discrete outcomes with clear resolution. Perps shine for continuous directional trading, leverage, and scalping without waiting for expiry. Perps are a monster volume driver in crypto; on-chain perps did hundreds of billions monthly. Prediction markets have massive engagement spikes (elections, big events) but can be lumpy. Adding 24/7 levered trading on known markets keeps users sticky and multiplies activity. You can already express nuanced views on Polymarket. Perps let you lever those convictions or hedge them indefinitely. High-frequency traders get micro-edges amplified; conviction holders get size without tying up huge capital in illiquid binaries. Kalshi's crypto push forced their hand. Both are evolving from event betting toward fuller trading platforms. Polymarket's user base, hundreds of thousands MAU + perps could challenge pure perp DEXs like Hyperliquid in certain flows. Perps aren't eating prediction markets. Perps are great for ongoing price exposure but they suck at many things prediction markets handle cleanly: Binary or multi-outcome events (election winner, "will this bill pass", sports results, obscure news). Information aggregation on low-liquidity or narrative-driven stuff where expiry forces resolution. Pure "will this happen?" conviction without constant funding rates or liquidation drama. Perps can approximate some of this like event-linked perps, but the mechanics differ -- funding rates, margin, no natural resolution. Prediction markets are basically event derivatives with built-in oracle resolution. They're complementary: perps for flow and leverage, preds for discovery and truth-seeking on real-world outcomes. Crypto history shows this pattern -- DEXs added perps for volume, but spot, options, and niche products including event contracts still grew. Polymarket isn't pivoting; they're layering a high-margin, high-engagement product on their core strength; pricing the future via crowd bets. Derivatives keep winning because speculation is sticky, leverage amplifies everything, and platforms want to own more of the user's wallet and time. The launch comes amid intense competition with Kalshi another prediction market platform also eyeing perps and crypto trading. Polymarket appears to have beaten Kalshi to the public announcement, escalating a rivalry in both event-based and continuous derivatives. It aligns with Polymarket's broader growth: Explosive volume in 2025-2026, fueled by high-profile events like elections and geopolitical news. Reports of ambitious fundraising: aiming for ~$400M at a potential $15 billion valuation. Regulatory progress, including CFTC-related developments, positioning it for U.S. and global expansion while staying crypto-friendly. But calling it perp over prediction market is like saying options killed spot trading. Both thrive when the underlying; real events, price discovery is interesting. Prediction markets proved they can pull real money and attention on big macro and political calls. Perps will probably boost Polymarket's overall volume and make it a stickier app. Expect more hybrid stuff: levered event exposure, perpetual prediction-like contracts, etc. Bullish for the whole ecosystem -- more tools for expressing views on the future, whether discrete or continuous.
413 million bets with over $100 million at stake: the latest Polymarket insider trading Trump controversy | Fortune
Will President Donald Trump send troops into Iran? Will he rename the Strait of Hormuz after himself? Will he post again praising Allah? No one knows the answers, but online betting companies that allow people to wager on Trump policies and statements are profiting -- including some backed by his oldest son. Prediction markets love the president's unpredictability, his need to keep people guessing about his next move or social media post, leading to more wagers in these betting venues and more fees for them. That includes Polymarket, a company Donald Trump Jr. has a stake in, and Kalshi, a company he advises. These sites have to come up with new betting lines on current events everyday, and Trump Jr.'s famously fickle father has proven to be a rich source of will-he-or-won't-he questions. When a wagering event on Polymarket asked whether Trump was likely to send troops into Iran, nearly 100,000 bets were placed on April 8, leading to the biggest trading day of the year up to then. And Trump's policies and social media comments generate bets beyond the war-related ones: Who will Trump back to run Venezuela? Will his insults of Pope Leo XIV continue? Will he seize Greenland? "Trump is the guy. He makes the market possible," said Kwok Ping Tsang, a Virginia Tech economist who has studied Polymarket. "He's so unpredictable." Sports wagers make up the largest portion of the volume on prediction markets, but politics runs a close second, according to crypto analysis firm Dune. People are also betting "Yes" or "No" on all kinds of other things -- the price of gold, the winner of "Survivor," even the weather. The cost of the wager, in cents per dollar, reflects the number of people making the same bet, with a price of 49 cents for "Yes," for instance, reflecting 49% odds. The betting has drawn bipartisan criticism for inviting insider trading but the president seems to be a big fan, applying a light regulatory touch and helping the industry expand. His family company, the Trump Organization, is even working on opening its own prediction market, called Truth Predict. One of the biggest fee generators lately has been Trump's approach to the Iran war, notably his Truth Social post on April 5 demanding the country "Open the F -- - Strait." Trading on Polymarket soared with "Yes" or "No" wagers on whether an invasion was imminent, according to Dune, only to be surpassed on April 7 by betting on another question -- Will there be a ceasefire? -- when Trump posted ominously that a "whole civilization will die tonight." In total, 413 million bets on the Iran war were made risking more than $100 million from Sunday, April 5, through Wednesday, April 8, the day after Trump announced a ceasefire, according to Dune. In a report after the surge, Dune called Trump an "unpredictability machine" and marveled at how his "governing-by-tweet" style sends trading volumes soaring. Asked whether the president's son should be profiting from a business benefitting from his father's actions, a Trump Jr. spokesman called the question "fact-free Democratic propaganda." "Don does not interface with the federal government as part of his role with any company that he invests in or advises and has no influence or involvement with administration policies relating to prediction markets," said the spokesman, Andrew Surabian. Polymarket didn't respond to a request for comment. The betting venues have jumped in popularity since Trump was reelected in November 2024 in part because they correctly predicted, unlike many pundits, that he would win decisively. Since then the Trump administration has sued states trying to ban prediction markets under no-gambling laws. The head of the industry's chief regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has even promoted the business publicly, calling the online bets in a Wall Street Journal op-ed "exciting products." Benefiting particularly has been Polymarket, which was banned from operating anywhere in the U.S. in 2022 after the Biden administration fined it for running an unregistered exchange. It recently got permission to return, and its value has soared. The company is now worth $9.6 billion, according to research firm PitchBook, a nearly tenfold increase in eight months since a venture capital fund in which Trump Jr. is a partner last invested. Just how much Trump Jr. is benefiting from the increase in value is unclear because Polymarket is private and doesn't release ownership stakes. Kalshi, which took on Trump Jr. as an adviser last year, is also private. As for profiting off turmoil and war, Trump Jr. has other possible ways besides the prediction markets. Through his venture capital fund he also owns pieces of aerospace, defense and technology companies seeking Pentagon contracts and other federal agency dollars. Separately, he and his brother, Eric, just struck a deal giving them stakes in a military drone maker not just selling to the U.S. forces but also pitching to Gulf countries under Iranian attack and beholden to their father for U.S. military protection in a war he started. Asked last month about the drone company potentially profiting off his father's position as president, Eric Trump sent The Associated Press a statement saying, "I am incredibly proud to invest in companies I believe in." Critics in Congress, virtually all Democrats, have decried what they believe is blatant profiting off the presidency, and are waiting for the midterms to do something about it, possibly voting for impeachment. But whether that happens is anyone's guess -- or to be more specific, tens of thousands of guesses. In Polymarket trading, those betting that Trump would get impeached by the end of his term were putting the chances at 13% at the start of the year. But that has changed dramatically after his "civilization wipe out" threat and calls from Democrats to oust him from office. AP reporters Ken Sweet in New York and Christopher Keller in Albuquerque, N.M., contributed to this story.
Polymarket trader bags $37K after sudden Paris temperature spike, probe begins- Moneycontrol.com
Météo-France filed complaint over suspected sensor tampering Unusual temperature spikes at a key weather station in Paris have triggered an investigation after traders on Polymarket made about $37,000 betting on unlikely outcomes. The bets were tied to daily temperature prediction markets based on readings from a Météo-France station at Charles de Gaulle Airport. Data from the station showed sudden and short-lived spikes on April 6 and April 15, which determined the settlement of the contracts. On April 6, temperatures briefly crossed 21°C before quickly dropping, while on April 15, readings jumped to around 22°C after hovering near 18°C for most of the day. According to Bloomberg, these spikes represented the highest recorded temperatures for those days, allowing certain bets to pay out. Market data cited in the reports showed that one trader made over $16,000 from the April 6 contract, while another gained more than $21,000 on April 15 by betting against the expected temperature outcome. Blockchain analytics platform Bubblemaps flagged suspicious trading activity, noting that a trader began placing bets shortly before the spike occurred. Meteorologists and analysts have questioned whether the readings could have been manipulated. Ruben Hallali, a meteorologist and CEO of weather intelligence firm HD Rain, told Bloomberg the sudden temperature changes were "very unlikely" to be natural and pointed to possible on-site interference with the sensor. Following the anomalies, Météo-France said it had inspected the station and filed a complaint with airport police over suspected tampering with an automated data processing system. The readings are not only used for forecasting but are also critical for aviation operations, including takeoff and landing calculations. The incident has also raised broader concerns about the integrity of prediction markets, which have seen a surge in popularity. Critics argue that such platforms are vulnerable to manipulation, insider trading, and regulatory gaps, especially when contracts depend on a single data source. After the incident, Polymarket switched its Paris temperature data source to another airport station, according to its website.
French Weather Agency Alerts Police to Sensor 'Interference' After $35K Polymarket Payouts - Decrypt
Météo France has filed a police complaint alleging interference with its automated data processing systems. Well-timed Polymarket bets on the temperature in Paris saw traders walk away with more than $35,000 -- triggering a police complaint from France's national weather agency. On April 6 and again on April 15, temperature readings from a sensor operated by Météo France, the French government's official weather agency, near the Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport runway spiked by more than three degrees Celsius before snapping back to normal within minutes, French broadcaster BFMTV reported. Multiple accounts appeared to have placed large bets on long-shot outcomes on the markets, according to the Financial Times. Per BFMTV, one trader made $14,000 trading on a market linked to the sensor on April 6, with a stake of "only a few dozen dollars." Blockchain analytics platform Bubblemaps flagged another such trade made on April 15 in a Wednesday post, noting that one account purchased "NO" shares on an 18°C outcome when odds sat below 1%, spent roughly $120, and exited with around $21,000, a 180x return, within 30 minutes of the spike. "While this trader has a long history in weather markets, this bet stands out," Bubblemaps wrote. "His average bet: $6 at 72% odds. This one: $120, 20x larger, at 0.6% odds -- placed minutes before the anomaly." Météo France has since filed a complaint for "interference with the operation of an automated data processing system" with the Roissy Air Transport Gendarmerie Brigade, "in light of physical findings on one of our instruments and the analysis of sensor data," a spokesperson for the weather agency told Decrypt. The incidents expose a structural vulnerability in prediction markets that peg payouts to a single real-world data point. "Basing a contract on the observations of a single weather station probably isn't a good idea," Mark Roulston, a researcher focused on prediction markets at Lancaster University, told Decrypt. "Even in the absence of malicious activity, individual weather stations can develop faults or return anomalous readings," Roulston said. He noted that national weather centres have "procedures for weeding out anomalous readings" when using station data in their models, saying how basing contracts on an average across multiple stations would make them "less easy to manipulate" and "potentially more useful" for forecasting applications such as energy demand. The April 6 account had been created just two days before the winning bet was placed, BFMTV noted, raising questions about whether the platform, already linked to alleged insider trading tied to the Iran war and banned in France, had enabled a malicious actor to manipulate its markets. The episode is the second market-integrity incident to hit Polymarket in as many weeks. Last week, UFC announcer Bruce Buffer misread a fight result live on air at UFC 327 in Miami, briefly sending one fighter's odds to 99.9% before the error was corrected, enabling a trader to turn $500 into more than $252,000. Prediction market platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are facing mounting scrutiny. Last month, a bipartisan pair of U.S. senators, Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT), introduced a bill that would ban platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi from offering sports-related wagers altogether. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has thrown its weight behind the platforms, filing lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut, saying the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over the sector, following actions by the states against the platforms. Polymarket is currently in talks to raise $400 million at a roughly $15 billion valuation, following a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange last month.
France Probes Weather Data Tampering After Surge in Polymarket Bets
France's forecasting office flagged suspected tampering with weather sensors at the country's largest airport and referred the case to police, after detecting unusual readings alongside heavy betting on a popular prediction market. Automated temperature readings taken at Meteo France's weather station at Charles de Gaulle International Airport spiked 4C and 5C unexpectedly in the evenings of April 6 and April 15, respectively, reaching the highest temperature recorded at the site on those days, data from the installation show. Readings from the site are important for the safe operation of the airport. They are also used to settle contracts for daily high temperatures on Polymarket, according to information on the website where traders place bets on real-world outcomes. Weather betting has boomed on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi Inc., where individual traders and weather experts have flocked to put money behind their predictions for temperatures, or the amount of rain or snowfall in particular areas on specific dates. Boosters say prediction markets create economic and social value by providing better information about what will happen in the world. Detractors call them glorified gambling vulnerable to manipulation, insider trading and other shenanigans. Concerns have emerged for other contracts on prediction markets, including claims from an Israeli journalist that Polymarket users pressured him to change a story about missile strikes outside Jerusalem. Prediction market traders and independent meteorologists in a French weather discussion forum flagged the data irregularities and questioned the results of the contracts, which attracted roughly $1.4 million in combined bets, according to Polymarket data. Total betting for each was more than double the typical volume for other daily Paris temperature contracts in April. A spokesperson for Meteo France, Laurent Becler, said technicians examined sensor data and inspected the weather station, and the forecasting office subsequently filed a complaint for tampering with the operation of an automated data processing system to airport police. Becler declined to answer additional questions about the possible tampering and data irregularities. Airport police declined to answer questions about the complaint and referred questions to court officials, who declined to answer a request for more information. Charles de Gaulle International Airport declined to comment. Representatives for Polymarket did not respond to questions about the weather contracts. Betting on Paris temperatures switched to using data collected at Paris-Le Bourget Airport instead of Charles de Gaulle on April 19, according to Polymarket's website. Meteorologist Ruben Hallali, chief executive officer and co-founder of Paris-based weather intelligence firm HD Rain, said he was among those who reported the anomalous data to Meteo France, where he previously worked. Hallali said he closely monitors the airport weather station because his firm certifies parametric insurance -- policies that don't require proof of loss and pay out when specific conditions are met -- for clients there. "That's why I was able to spot very quickly the fact that there was a data manipulation," he said. The April 15 data are particularly unusual, Hallali said. On that day, temperatures hit 18.8C in the late afternoon and started to taper off before surging from 16.9C to 21.9C in 12 minutes, data from the weather station show. Humidity levels also plunged abruptly around this time, he said On Polymarket, one trader made more than $21,000 betting that 18C would not be the highest temperature recorded that day, data from the prediction market show. The consequences of tampering with sensors at an airport could be severe, Hallali said. The data give pilots and air traffic controllers critically important readings on temperature, wind, visibility and other conditions. Those data are used for takeoffs and landings, to determine which runways are used and helping air traffic controllers set routes and spacing between aircraft. Weather station data are also used to calibrate altitude and fuel use for other aircraft, Hallali said. "If there is a mistake in this data, it can be dangerous," he said.
Anthropic's valuation has hit $1T on Forge Global, a leading private marketplace exchange, surpassing OpenAI's valuation on the platform of $880B
@itsmarkmoran: YES, I did bet ~$100 on myself on Kalshi because I wanted to get caught... After discovering potential manipulation on polymarket in the NYC mayoral race (NY Post reported on this) I realized how rife with corruption kalshi is...I mean death markets...come on.... Today, we're releasing notices related to three enforcement investigations. All three cases concern political insider trading and were flagged because of our newly released safeguards to block political candidates from trading on their own elections. Kalshi does not tolerate anyone cheating or skirting the rules. Regulated exchanges must constantly evolve and adapt their systems to address insider threats.
Paris Weather Anomalies Lead to $37K Polymarket Windfall Amid Fraud Suspicions - Blockonomi
French meteorological agency files formal complaint over suspected Polymarket-related tampering Prediction market participants on Polymarket walked away with approximately $37,000 following questionable temperature fluctuations recorded in Paris, sparking serious questions about the platform's data verification processes. The controversial payouts stemmed from fleeting temperature measurements at Charles de Gaulle Airport that deviated significantly from surrounding monitoring stations. The incident has intensified scrutiny regarding Polymarket's vulnerability to data manipulation and its dependency on singular information sources. Two separate Polymarket betting markets focused on daily maximum temperatures in Paris during early April relied exclusively on data from the airport weather station. On April 6, temperature sensors momentarily registered readings exceeding 21 degrees Celsius before rapidly declining, establishing the official outcome for market settlement. A single participant claimed over $16,000 from this particular Polymarket contract resolution. The pattern repeated itself nine days later, once again influencing a Polymarket market tied to temperature measurements. Throughout April 15, the monitoring station consistently displayed approximately 18 degrees Celsius until an abrupt surge to 22 degrees Celsius occurred. This fleeting spike determined the final settlement parameters and generated another substantial payout for strategic bettors. French news organization BFMTV reported that both temperature anomalies lasted only brief moments and weren't replicated at other meteorological stations throughout the Paris metropolitan area. These discrepancies cast significant doubt on the accuracy of measurements governing Polymarket contract outcomes. The platform now confronts heightened skepticism regarding its settlement mechanisms. Cryptocurrency analytics platform Bubblemaps uncovered potentially coordinated trading behavior surrounding the April 15 Polymarket weather contract. Analysis revealed that one participant acquired NO positions betting against 18 degrees Celsius immediately preceding the temperature anomaly. This individual subsequently liquidated their Polymarket holdings for profits exceeding $21,000. Furthermore, Bubblemaps investigators confirmed that the temperature surge remained isolated to the single airport station, with no corresponding increases detected at adjacent monitoring facilities. This geographical inconsistency intensified concerns about Polymarket's settlement methodology based on solitary data feeds. The timing of trades relative to the reading sparked speculation about foreknowledge or potential influence. The profitable Polymarket wallet demonstrated extensive participation across diverse prediction categories, spanning cryptocurrency markets and meteorological forecasts. However, temperature-related contracts generated disproportionately large returns compared to other activities. Researchers characterized the trading sequence as anomalous within typical Polymarket user behavior patterns. Climate specialist Ruben Hallali examined the recorded temperature variations and concluded they contradicted standard meteorological patterns. His analysis indicated that such rapid fluctuations occurring within compressed timeframes lack consistency with natural atmospheric dynamics. The findings introduced the concerning possibility of deliberate manipulation affecting Polymarket market resolutions. Météo France, the nation's primary meteorological authority, submitted an official complaint to aviation security personnel. The filing alleged possible interference with automated weather monitoring infrastructure operating at the airport facility. Law enforcement officials subsequently initiated formal inquiries into the authenticity of temperature data utilized for Polymarket contract settlements. The prediction platform has experienced substantial expansion by offering markets on cryptocurrency trends, political outcomes, and tangible real-world events. Nevertheless, architectural dependence on individual data streams creates significant vulnerabilities when irregularities surface. The Paris weather controversy underscores critical weaknesses in Polymarket's verification infrastructure and settlement protocols that require immediate attention.
Weather Sensor Anomaly Raises Doubts About Polymarket
A temperature variation of a few degrees was enough to trigger gains of several tens of thousands of euros. At the origin of this situation, a Météo-France sensor suspected of having been tampered with, at the heart of betting on the Polymarket platform. This case, far from trivial, reveals a major vulnerability: when real-world data become financial instruments, their integrity becomes a critical issue for the entire crypto ecosystem. Suspicions grew after the detection of a sudden temperature variation on a Météo-France sensor located in Roissy. Within a few minutes, the temperature reportedly recorded a rapid increase of several degrees, a phenomenon considered inconsistent with the observed weather conditions. This anomaly is believed to have been exploited on the predictive betting platform Polymarket, allowing some users to generate significant gains, even as some US states already order the halt of these markets. In response to these events, Météo-France officially reacted by confirming an anomaly and citing an external cause. The institution thus declared : "we are filing a complaint for tampering with the operation of a data processing system," while mentioning the hypothesis of an "external intervention." These statements strengthen suspicions of targeted manipulation, directly linked to the exploitation of data used in financial markets. Here are the key facts observed : The hypothesis of a physical manipulation of the sensor quickly gained traction. Some elements suggest that an external device may have been used to alter the readings. This theory is notably based on the speed and magnitude of the variations observed, as well as the accessibility of the sensor concerned. Meanwhile, on Polymarket, the probabilities associated with certain weather scenarios reportedly evolved dramatically, jumping from very low to almost certain levels within moments, triggering immediate reactions from users. This episode reveals a structural vulnerability of predictive markets relying on external on-chain data. The direct link between a physical event and a financial outcome creates a vulnerability point exploitable whenever the data source can be influenced. Following the incident, the reference sensor was reportedly modified, proving that the issue goes beyond a simple anecdote to challenge the credibility of the systems used. Beyond this specific case, the affair raises questions about the robustness of mechanisms linking the real world to crypto infrastructures. It opens a debate about securing data sources, but also about the responsibility of platforms relying on them. While predictive markets gain popularity despite significant losses, their dependence on reliable physical data could become their main point of fragility, with potentially major consequences for user trust and the integrity of these new financial tools.
Polymarket and Kalshi Are Both Set to Launch Perp Trading
Polymarket announced early access for perpetual futures trading, while The Information reported that Kalshi is planning a similar product launch. The two largest prediction market platforms by trading volume are both moving into perpetual futures trading, per reports arriving within hours of each other on Tuesday, April 21. Polymarket's move is official. The on-chain prediction marketplace posted on X Tuesday evening: "Perps are coming to Polymarket." The platform is accepting early access sign-ups for the product, which will allow traders to take leveraged long or short positions on assets including BTC, stocks, and gold without a fixed expiration date. Separately, The Information reported on Tuesday morning that Kalshi plans to launch crypto trading, beginning with perpetual futures, citing people familiar with the matter. According to the report, Kalshi will start with crypto perps and may expand to perps tied to other asset classes over time. Perp trading has exploded in popularity over the past year, notably on decentralized platforms, mostly led by Hyperliquid. But centralized platforms, led by Binance, still dominate in terms of volumes and open interest, per CoinGecko data. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig said last month that the agency plans to allow regulated perpetual futures in the United States, to attract trading volume back from offshore platforms. The Information's report notes that Kalshi recently secured a CFTC margin trading license, positioning it to offer the product. The move would put both Polymarket and Kalshi in more direct competition with both centralized and on-chain exchange platforms, several of which, like Coinbase, have begun adding prediction markets. Combined monthly trading volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket last month reached over $23 billion, an all-time high. Since the start of this year, both platforms have consistently seen near or over $2 billion in trades each week, per Token Terminal data. The launches come amid rapid regulatory change for the sector. The CFTC launched a sweeping review of prediction markets in March, after Chair Selig clarified that the agency thinks such platforms should be regulated federally, not by each state. At the same time, both platforms continue to face state-level legal pressure, as gambling is a state-regulated activity in the U.S. and multiple states have alleged that the platforms need gambling regulator licenses to operate in the state.
Phemex Launched Prediction Markets in Partnership with Polymarket | ForkLog
On April 23, crypto exchange Phemex launched prediction markets built on Polymarket infrastructure -- one of the largest platforms in the segment. Users can trade outcomes of real-world events spanning macroeconomics, geopolitics, technology, sports, and culture directly from their exchange account, according to a press release. The integration sits inside the standard exchange environment: no separate wallet is required, and trades execute through a regular account in USDT and USDC. The format feels native to existing exchange users. "We lean on Polymarket's established liquidity: this gives traders deeper markets, tighter spreads, and a steady flow of new events without fragmented pools," Phemex stated. Alongside the launch, Phemex is running a four-week campaign with a prize pool, bonuses and first-trade rebate. Traders will compete in weekly leaderboards ranked by PnL and ROI, with rankings resetting each week. The first 500 users will receive opening trade protection: if the initial position closes at a loss, the exchange will compensate up to $10 USDT. Prediction markets let traders take positions on real-world event outcomes at market-determined prices, which update continuously as new information emerges. The segment is growing rapidly. Since the beginning of 2026, trading volumes across sector leaders Kalshi and Polymarket have already surpassed $60 billion. Bernstein analysts expect the figure to reach $240 billion by December, and $1 trillion by 2030. Sports remains the dominant category, accounting for 61% of all bets. Bernstein sees the sector's long-term potential in contracts tied to crypto assets, macroeconomic indicators, and politics. As of April 21, Kalshi holds 45.1% of the market, while Polymarket accounts for 38.7%. On February 2, US-based exchange Coinbase launched a prediction platform in partnership with Kalshi. In March, Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation -- double its December round.
France Probes Weather Data Tampering After Surge in Polymarket Bets
(Bloomberg) -- France's forecasting office flagged suspected tampering with weather sensors at the country's largest airport and referred the case to police, after detecting unusual readings alongside heavy betting on a popular prediction market. Most Read from Bloomberg Automated temperature readings taken at Meteo France's weather station at Charles de Gaulle International Airport spiked 4C and 5C unexpectedly in the evenings of April 6 and April 15, respectively, reaching the highest temperature recorded at the site on those days, data from the installation show. Readings from the site are important for the safe operation of the airport. They are also used to settle contracts for daily high temperatures on Polymarket, according to information on the website where traders place bets on real-world outcomes. Weather betting has boomed on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi Inc., where individual traders and weather experts have flocked to put money behind their predictions for temperatures, or the amount of rain or snowfall in particular areas on specific dates. Boosters say prediction markets create economic and social value by providing better information about what will happen in the world. Detractors call them glorified gambling vulnerable to manipulation, insider trading and other shenanigans. Concerns have emerged for other contracts on prediction markets, including claims from an Israeli journalist that Polymarket users pressured him to change a story about missile strikes outside Jerusalem. Prediction market traders and independent meteorologists in a French weather discussion forum flagged the data irregularities and questioned the results of the contracts, which attracted roughly $1.4 million in combined bets, according to Polymarket data. Total betting for each was more than double the typical volume for other daily Paris temperature contracts in April. A spokesperson for Meteo France, Laurent Becler, said technicians examined sensor data and inspected the weather station, and the forecasting office subsequently filed a complaint for tampering with the operation of an automated data processing system to airport police. Becler declined to answer additional questions about the possible tampering and data irregularities. Airport police declined to answer questions about the complaint and referred questions to court officials, who declined to answer a request for more information. Charles de Gaulle International Airport declined to comment.
France probes weather data glitch after surge in Polymarket bets
PARIS - France's forecasting office flagged suspected tampering with weather sensors at the country's largest airport and referred the case to the police, after detecting unusual readings alongside heavy betting on a popular prediction market. Automated temperature readings taken at Meteo France's weather station at Charles de Gaulle International Airport spiked 4 deg C and 5 deg C unexpectedly in the evenings of April 6 and April 15, respectively, reaching the highest temperature recorded at the site on those days, data from the installation show. Readings from the site are important for the safe operation of the airport. They are also used to settle contracts for daily high temperatures on Polymarket, according to information on the website where traders place bets on real-world outcomes. Weather betting has boomed on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, where individual traders and weather experts have flocked to put money behind their predictions for temperatures, or the amount of rain or snowfall in particular areas on specific dates. Boosters say prediction markets create economic and social value by providing better information about what will happen in the world. Detractors call them glorified gambling vulnerable to manipulation, insider trading and other shenanigans. Concerns have emerged for other contracts on prediction markets, including claims from an Israeli journalist that Polymarket users pressured him to change a story about missile strikes outside Jerusalem. Prediction market traders and independent meteorologists in a French weather discussion forum flagged the data irregularities and questioned the results of the contracts, which attracted roughly US$1.4 million (S$1/8 million) in combined bets, according to Polymarket data. Total betting for each was more than double the typical volume for other daily Paris temperature contracts in April. A spokesman for Meteo France, Mr Laurent Becler, said technicians examined sensor data and inspected the weather station, and the forecasting office subsequently filed a complaint for tampering with the operation of an automated data processing system to airport police. Mr Becler declined to answer additional questions about the possible tampering and data irregularities. The airport police declined to answer questions about the complaint and referred questions to court officials, who declined to answer a request for more information. Charles de Gaulle International Airport declined to comment. Representatives for Polymarket did not respond to questions about the weather contracts. Betting on Paris temperatures switched to using data collected at Paris-Le Bourget Airport instead of Charles de Gaulle on April 19, according to Polymarket's website. Meteorologist Ruben Hallali, chief executive officer and co-founder of Paris-based weather intelligence firm HD Rain, said he was among those who reported the anomalous data to Meteo France, where he previously worked. Dr Hallali said he closely monitors the airport weather station because his firm certifies parametric insurance - policies that do not require proof of loss and pay out when specific conditions are met - for clients there. "That's why I was able to spot very quickly the fact that there was a data manipulation," he said. The April 15 data are particularly unusual, Dr Hallali said. On that day, temperatures hit 18.8 deg C in the late afternoon and started to taper off before surging from 16.9 deg C to 21.9 deg C in 12 minutes, data from the weather station show. Humidity levels also plunged abruptly around this time, he said On Polymarket, one trader made more than US$21,000 betting that 18 deg C would not be the highest temperature recorded that day, data from the prediction market show. The consequences of tampering with sensors at an airport could be severe, Dr Hallali said. The data give pilots and air traffic controllers critically important readings on temperature, wind, visibility and other conditions. Those data are used for take-offs and landings, to determine which runways are used and helping air traffic controllers set routes and spacing between aircraft. Weather station data are also used to calibrate altitude and fuel use for other aircraft, Dr Hallali said. "If there is a mistake in this data, it can be dangerous," he said. BLOOMBERG
West Bengal Elections 2026 who will win? US-based Polymarket betting site shows BJP 52%, TMC 47%; bets cross $2 million
As voting begins for the first phase of West Bengal's Assembly election, an unusual trend has surfaced far beyond the state's borders: global traders are pouring money into predicting the outcome. More than $2 million has already been wagered on West Bengal election results contract on an online prediction platform, making it the most actively traded Indian state poll on such markets. Even as these platforms remain off-limits for Indian users under current law, the platform has registered strong interest from bettors. What makes this election stand out is not just the scale on the ground, but the attention it has drawn online. On Polymarket, a US-based prediction platform, the West Bengal election has seen trading volumes cross $2.3 million, far ahead of other Indian state elections. According to widely shared screenshots on social media, traders currently give the BJP a slight edge with a 52 per cent chance of winning, while Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress follows closely at 47 per cent. The CPI is barely in the picture, trading at under one per cent. A personal finance account on X highlighted this surge, noting that Bengal now leads all Indian state elections in trading activity on the platform. Prediction markets work differently from opinion polls. Instead of answering surveys, participants put real money behind their expectations. Prices fluctuate in real time, reflecting what traders believe is the likelihood of an outcome. For instance, if a party's contract trades at around 53 cents, it implies a perceived 53 per cent chance of victory. If the prediction turns out correct, traders earn the difference. Supporters of such markets argue that financial stakes make them sharper than traditional surveys. Some platforms even claim high accuracy rates well before results are declared. Here is where things get complicated. India banned prediction markets in 2025 under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act (PROGA). The law prohibits platforms that allow betting on real-world events, including elections, from operating in the country or accepting Indian users. This means the heavy trading seen in the West Bengal election is almost entirely driven by users outside India, mainly from the US and Europe. Any participation by Indian citizens would violate the law. Among ongoing state elections, including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry, West Bengal has clearly attracted the most attention. Tamil Nadu, for example, has seen comparatively lower trading volumes of around $370,000. This difference signals something deeper. Higher trading activity often points to uncertainty. When outcomes appear predictable, markets tend to be quieter. But when a contest looks tight, participation increases as traders try to anticipate the result. That uncertainty mirrors the situation on the ground. The ruling Trinamool Congress continues to rely on its strong grassroots network and welfare programmes, which have helped it stay in power since 2011. At the same time, the BJP has steadily expanded its presence in the state, especially after the 2019 general elections, turning the race into a direct contest. Local issues such as employment, rural distress, and governance are expected to play a key role in influencing undecided voters. While prediction markets offer an interesting lens, they are not foolproof. The participants are largely global and may not fully grasp local dynamics, caste equations, or last-mile campaigning. Still, they reflect one clear sentiment: this election is wide open. The first phase of polling is underway, covering 152 constituencies across 16 districts. Voting is scheduled between 7 am and 6 pm. A total of 1,478 candidates, including 167 women, are contesting in this round. Around 3.6 crore voters are eligible to vote, with polling being conducted at 44,376 booths. Among these, nearly 3,000 are auxiliary booths, and 5,444 are being managed entirely by women. The remaining seats will go to polls on April 29, with counting set for May 4. (ET.com does not endorse, encourage, or facilitate participation in prediction markets. Such platforms are banned in India under PROGA.)
France Probes Weather Data Glitch After Surge in Polymarket Bets
France's forecasting office flagged suspected tampering with weather sensors at the country's largest airport and referred the case to police, after detecting unusual readings alongside heavy betting on a popular prediction market. Automated temperature readings taken at Meteo France's weather station at Charles de Gaulle International Airport spiked 4C and 5C unexpectedly in the evenings of April 6 and April 15, respectively, reaching the highest temperature recorded at the site on those days, data from the installation show. Readings from the site are important for the safe operation of the airport. They are also used to settle contracts for daily high temperatures on Polymarket, according to information on the website where traders place bets on real-world outcomes. Weather betting has boomed on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi Inc., where individual traders and weather experts have flocked to put money behind their predictions for temperatures, or the amount of rain or snowfall in particular areas on specific dates. Boosters say prediction markets create economic and social value by providing better information about what will happen in the world. Detractors call them glorified gambling vulnerable to manipulation, insider trading and other shenanigans. Concerns have emerged for other contracts on prediction markets, including claims from an Israeli journalist that Polymarket users pressured him to change a story about missile strikes outside Jerusalem. See also: How Prediction Markets Polymarket and Kalshi Are Gamifying Truth Prediction market traders and independent meteorologists in a French weather discussion forum flagged the data irregularities and questioned the results of the contracts, which attracted roughly $1.4 million in combined bets, according to Polymarket data. Total betting for each was more than double the typical volume for other daily Paris temperature contracts in April. A spokesperson for Meteo France, Laurent Becler, said technicians examined sensor data and inspected the weather station, and the forecasting office subsequently filed a complaint for tampering with the operation of an automated data processing system to airport police. Becler declined to answer additional questions about the possible tampering and data irregularities. Airport police declined to answer questions about the complaint and referred questions to court officials, who declined to answer a request for more information. Charles de Gaulle International Airport declined to comment. Representatives for Polymarket did not respond to questions about the weather contracts. Betting on Paris temperatures switched to using data collected at Paris-Le Bourget Airport instead of Charles de Gaulle on April 19, according to Polymarket's website. Meteorologist Ruben Hallali, chief executive officer and co-founder of Paris-based weather intelligence firm HD Rain, said he was among those who reported the anomalous data to Meteo France, where he previously worked. Hallali said he closely monitors the airport weather station because his firm certifies parametric insurance -- policies that don't require proof of loss and pay out when specific conditions are met -- for clients there. "That's why I was able to spot very quickly the fact that there was a data manipulation," he said. The April 15 data are particularly unusual, Hallali said. On that day, temperatures hit 18.8C in the late afternoon and started to taper off before surging from 16.9C to 21.9C in 12 minutes, data from the weather station show. Humidity levels also plunged abruptly around this time, he said On Polymarket, one trader made more than $21,000 betting that 18C would not be the highest temperature recorded that day, data from the prediction market show. The consequences of tampering with sensors at an airport could be severe, Hallali said. The data give pilots and air traffic controllers critically important readings on temperature, wind, visibility and other conditions. Those data are used for takeoffs and landings, to determine which runways are used and helping air traffic controllers set routes and spacing between aircraft. Weather station data are also used to calibrate altitude and fuel use for other aircraft, Hallali said. "If there is a mistake in this data, it can be dangerous," he said.
Polymarket bet on Trump praising Pakistani PM, CDF every 36 hours balloons to $9.8 million - Profit by Pakistan Today
{Disclaimer: This is a work of fiction and does not present itself as the truth. Learn to take a joke; you'll live longer.} The international "prediction market" company Polymarket's market (what the company calls a bet) on US President Donald Trump praising Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Defence Forces Syed Asim Munir once every 36 hours for the next 10 days, has ballooned to USD 9.8 million. At the time of the filing of this report, the "Yes" shares on the Polymarket exchange were being offered at USD 0.76 per share, indicating a 76% of betters' belief in the likelihood of the event taking place. "Yes, I know it's a rare thing for the US president to be so effusive in his praise and what not," said New York-based longtime betting entrepreneur Luigi "The Knife" Gambioni. "But hey, if the shoe fits." The market on the President's behaviour was placed when, on Friday, he posted on the Truth Social social networking site: "Thank you to Pakistan and its Great Prime Minister and Field Marshall, two fantastic people!!! This post follows the development from the day before, when White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt interrupted a question at a press briefing by saying:"I just want to make one point that's important to the President. The Pakistanis have been incredible mediators throughout this process and we really appreciate their friendship and their efforts to bring this deal to a close." Some within the Democrat party, however, call foul on the market. "I have a strong reason to suspect the President is making these statements just to induce a bet on sites like Polymarket and Kelshi, and then to game this whole market," said US representative for New York Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez . "You just see. I think he's going to drive the market all the way up to USD 25 million, and the "Yes" buys at 90 percent, and then not praise the Pakistanis. In fact, he just might blame the Pakistani establishment for playing a double game with the US in Afghanistan."
