News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
Polymarket Token Airdrop? CEO Talk Fuels Speculation
The CryptoNews editorial team is composed of seasoned writers specializing in cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. Their expertise ensures comprehensive, accurate, and insightful content for... Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan revived speculation about a native token at TOKEN2049 Singapore, discussing a possible on-chain asset with programmable utility tied to the platform's economy. This renews the speculation on the Polymarket token and a possible airdrop. Coplan appeared in a TOKEN2049 fireside conversation with Balaji Srinivasan. The discussion concerned an asset that could perform functions within Polymarket's financial ecosystem, but Coplan did not say how it would work, whether existing users might receive it or when it could launch. Expectations were already elevated after an early-October social-media exchange comparing Polymarket revenue with the valuation of Hyperliquid's HYPE token. Coplan suggested the subject might come up at TOKEN2049. Got a Gut Feeling? It Could Pay Out 3.7X on Polymarket Polymarket Token and an Airdrop Plan As of today, Coplan has yet to outline ownership rights, revenue arrangements, or governance privileges for the proposed asset. Polymarket has not confirmed a token-generation event or airdrop, but the lack of official details has left plenty of room for speculation around a potential launch, token allocations, and eligibility criteria. The platform's international prediction markets continue to operate without a native Polymarket cryptocurrency, making a future token launch a major development to watch. Its markets cover political, economic, and other real-world outcomes, ranging from geopolitical event contracts to elections. A native token could introduce another layer to the platform's growing ecosystem, while a potential airdrop could reward eligible early users if Polymarket chooses to distribute tokens to its community. Earlier executive hints have kept expectations alive, fueling speculation that Polymarket could eventually introduce a token and potentially reward users through an airdrop. If a launch moves forward, trading activity, market participation, and the platform's eventual eligibility rules could become important considerations for users hoping to qualify. Until Polymarket reveals its plans, the token and airdrop remain unconfirmed, but both continue to attract attention as possible next steps in the platform's evolution. Equity Financing and U.S. Regulation Polymarket's financing activity is distinct from token speculation. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agreed in 2025 to invest up to $2 billion, at a reported pre-investment valuation of about $8 billion; the partnership included plans to distribute Polymarket event data to institutional clients and examine future tokenization projects. ICE completed a further $600 million investment in March 2026 under the earlier commitment, while reports in April placed Polymarket's valuation near $15 billion. August discussions reportedly involved raising about $1 billion at a valuation above $20 billion, but those terms were not confirmed in a final company announcement. An IPO has also appeared in reporting about Polymarket's financing options, but the company has announced no filing, listing date, or approved public share offering. Polymarket's reported valuation and financing discussions belong to that separate corporate track. The U.S. operation is another distinct track. Polymarket acquired QCEX in 2025 and built a separate domestic platform for eligible U.S. customers; the CFTC lists QCX LLC, operating as Polymarket US, as a designated contract market, with an original designation date of July 9, 2025. Polymarket's international website and U.S. application operate separately. Its June 2026 help documentation says U.S. residents cannot trade through the international website, and no announcement explains whether a future asset would apply to either service or qualify U.S. users for a distribution. For now, no snapshot date or statement confirms that past trading will count toward eligibility, and published information identifies no token program for either the international platform or Polymarket US. The essential disclosures remain the asset's function, issuance terms, and any distribution rules-not another round of community speculation.
Polymarket Puts Fable 5.2 or Later Release Odds at 70% by Oct. 17 | TokenPost
The market's probability rose 36% in 24 hours. A public beta or a waitlist open to the public meets its release criteria. The probability of Anthropic making Fable 5.2 or a later model publicly available by Oct. 17 rose to 70%, a 36% increase over 24 hours, under the market's settlement rules. The deadline is measured in Eastern time. To qualify, a model's name or identifier must include "Fable" and its version must be 5.2 or higher, including later versions such as Fable 6. A public beta or a waitlist open to the public counts as public availability. Closed testing and private access do not qualify. Settlement is based primarily on Anthropic's official announcements and website, with credible media coverage as supporting evidence.
Polymarket is already taking bets on when Trump's pick Katie Zacharia will be out as press secretary
Add Yahoo as a preferred source to see more of our stories on Google. A prediction market is already taking bets on when President Donald Trump's pick for White House press secretary, Katie Zacharia, will be out -- and it's not looking good for the conservative communications specialist. Polymarket dropped a new question for traders shortly after Zacharia's disastrous first press briefing Tuesday morning: When will she be canned? As of Tuesday evening, the odds of her being ousted by the end of the month remain low at 8 percent. More money is being placed on her not making it into the new year. Zacharia had a 29 percent chance of leaving the White House by December 31. Zacharia was visibly nervous behind the lectern Tuesday, compared to her predecessor, Karoline Leavitt, who often sparred with journalists. After stumbling through prepared remarks boasting about Trump's perceived wins, Zacharia took questions from three conservative outlets and then wrapped up the quick 14-minute briefing. Her job performance was ripped apart online, with some wondering if she will even last as long as ex-White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci, who held the position for a record-short stint of 10 days in 2017 during Trump's first term. "What's the over/under that she doesn't last a Scaramucci?" criminal defense lawyer Scott Greenfield wrote on X. Scaramucci also chimed in after independent journalist George Sisca suggested that Scaramucci would be happy about Zacharia's performance "because his record might get broken." "Not me. I hope she makes it," he wrote on X. One former Trump official who remains close to people serving in the administration told The Independent's Andrew Feinberg that Zacharia's debut was "a train wreck" after previously describing her as a "joke hire" who'd likely be "gone in six months." White House Communications Director Steven Cheung commended Zacharia's job, calling the briefing a "tremendous start." "She commanded the room and effectively reminded the American people of all the great work President Trump and his Administration has done thus far," he wrote on X. Zacharia served as senior communications advisor for Trump's Truth Social platform before joining the White House press team, according to her LinkedIn profile. She also previously worked as a commentator for Fox News and Newsmax and worked on the Department of Homeland Security press team from February to March. The White House went without a press secretary for more than a month after Leavitt left her post in late August to spend more time with her young family. In that time, other members of the administration filled in for press briefings, including Vice President JD Vance and Attorney General Todd Blanche. Trump told reporters before boarding Air Force One in late August that he was "going to miss" Leavitt. "I have never had so many job applications in my life. They all want that job. They love that job. She's made that job very glamorous," Trump said, pointing to Leavitt next to him.
CFTC Moves to Fold Event Contracts Into Swap Rules -- What Changes for Polymarket and Kalshi? | Regulation Blockchain
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission moved on Oct. 9 to fold event contracts -- the sports, politics, cultural and weather markets traded on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket -- into the legal definition of a swap, a step aimed at keeping prediction markets under the agency's exclusive federal jurisdiction. The regulator published a notice of proposed rulemaking to make that inclusion explicit, alongside an interim final rule that took effect immediately and carves casino-style gambling out of the swap definition. The pairing targets a running legal fight with several states that argue sports prediction markets are gambling, not derivatives. "Americans use event contracts to hedge risks, speculate, and provide the public with information about the outcome of future events," Chairman Michael S. Selig said in the proposal. "These products are commodity derivatives squarely within the CFTC's regulatory remit under the Commodity Exchange Act and are within the agency's exclusive jurisdiction." Two Rules, One Regulatory Strategy The CFTC issued two documents with different legal weight. The proposed rule would amend the definition of swap to expressly include event contracts based on sports, politics, cultural and weather-related events -- contracts the agency says are already commonly known to the trade as swaps. That change is not final: it enters a 30-day comment period once published in the Federal Register. The interim final rule, by contrast, codifies the CFTC's longstanding view that casino-style gambling products, including sportsbook wagers and casino games, are not derivatives and sit outside the swap definition. It becomes effective immediately upon Federal Register publication. Why the Swap Label Matters Under the Commodity Exchange Act, swaps fall within the CFTC's exclusive federal jurisdiction, while gambling is left to the states. By classifying event contracts as swaps, the agency would preempt state gaming regulators and make itself the sole federal overseer of prediction markets. The carve-out for casino-style gambling is the companion move: it signals that sportsbooks and casino games remain state business, answering the states' argument that the CFTC's reading would federalize all wagering. The agency is effectively drawing a line between what it regulates and what it does not. What Changes for Polymarket and Kalshi The stakes are clearest for the platforms that list these contracts. Polymarket, which began rolling out a new ERC-1155 market architecture earlier in October, and Kalshi both want the CFTC to be their sole regulator rather than a patchwork of state gaming authorities. If the proposal is finalized, event contracts would sit inside a federal derivatives framework. The carve-out answers the states' counter-argument -- a Sixth Circuit ruling in September held that states can regulate Kalshi's sports prediction markets, and that split in the courts is precisely what the CFTC is trying to resolve. What Is Still Unsettled The swap inclusion remains only a proposal, and its final text could change after the 30-day comment period. The litigation is far from over: recent federal appellate rulings have split, with at least one decision opposing the states and two supporting them, and the question has been put to the Supreme Court. Selig is currently the lone commissioner on what is meant to be a five-member body, which leaves the rulemaking vulnerable to a future shift in the commission's makeup. For now the agency has put part of its interpretation into force -- but where prediction markets ultimately land depends on the final rule and the courts.
Prediction Markets vs FedWatch: Can Polymarket Predict the Fed Better in 2026?
The Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook has shifted dramatically in just a few weeks. After the Fed raised its benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026, traders initially expected another increase in October. However, softer inflation readings and disappointing employment data quickly changed those expectations. By October 7, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated just a 17.2% probability of another rate hike, while prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi were also leaning toward a pause. This rapid reversal raises an important question: can prediction markets anticipate Federal Reserve decisions more effectively than traditional interest rate futures? As investors increasingly monitor both Polymarket and CME FedWatch, understanding their differences has become essential for interpreting monetary policy expectations, financial market volatility, and the potential direction of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Why Have Fed Rate Predictions Changed So Quickly? The September Rate Hike Changed Market Expectations On September 16, 2026, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously increased the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. The decision marked the Fed's first rate increase since 2023 and reflected continued concerns about inflation remaining above the central bank's 2% target. Higher energy costs, resilient economic activity, and potential inflationary pressures from investment spending all contributed to the debate surrounding monetary policy. The decision initially reinforced expectations that the Fed might continue tightening monetary conditions. Investors evaluated whether September marked the beginning of another tightening cycle or a limited adjustment intended to prevent inflation from becoming more persistent. This distinction matters because a sustained hiking cycle could create significantly different conditions for equities, Treasury bonds, and the broader Cryptocurrency market than a single rate increase followed by a pause. However, the Fed's September decision did not guarantee another increase in October. The committee emphasized that future actions would depend on economic developments, while policymakers remained divided over how aggressively monetary policy should respond to inflation. As new economic reports arrived, financial markets began reassessing both the timing and necessity of another hike. Softer Inflation and Employment Data Triggered a Reversal The first major shift came on September 30, when the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data indicated softer price pressures than economists had anticipated. Kalshi reported that its October 25-basis-point rate-hike probability had fallen from 65% on September 25 to just 33% on September 30. At the same time, its probability of an unchanged rate increased to 65%. The reversal demonstrated how quickly traders adjusted their expectations following new macroeconomic information. The September employment report, released on October 2, added further pressure to the case for an immediate rate increase. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 jobs, compared with economists' expectations of approximately 90,000, while the unemployment rate reached 4.2%. Although the report did not necessarily signal a recession, weaker hiring reduced the urgency for additional tightening. Markets reacted immediately. MarketWatch reported that Polymarket's estimated probability of an October rate increase declined from approximately 25% before the employment report to 18% afterward. Meanwhile, CME futures pricing indicated a strong preference for keeping interest rates unchanged. The figures were observed at different points and should not be interpreted as perfectly synchronized quotes, but they show how both prediction markets and traditional futures markets incorporated the same economic surprise. Fed Minutes Reveal a More Complicated Policy Outlook The September FOMC meeting minutes, released on October 7, added another layer of uncertainty. Although policymakers unanimously supported the September increase, they disagreed about the underlying inflation risks. Some viewed higher interest rates as protection against potential energy and supply shocks, while others considered additional tightening necessary to contain broader demand-driven inflation. Most officials still regarded another increase before the end of 2026 as potentially appropriate, although the timing remained uncertain. Market expectations increasingly favored a pause in October and the possibility of another increase in December. This distinction between near-term and year-end policy expectations is central to understanding why October rate-hike probabilities declined even as Fed officials maintained a relatively restrictive outlook. How Does CME FedWatch Calculate Interest Rate Probabilities? The CME FedWatch Tool is one of the most widely followed indicators of market expectations surrounding Federal Reserve decisions. Rather than surveying economists or asking investors to vote on possible policy outcomes, it derives probabilities from prices in 30-Day Federal Funds futures contracts traded on CME Group's exchanges. These futures reflect expectations about the average effective federal funds rate during specific calendar months. The FedWatch methodology translates futures-implied rates into possible FOMC target-rate outcomes using assumptions about the size of rate changes and the relationship between the target rate and the effective federal funds rate. CME generally models policy changes in increments of 25 basis points and constructs a probability tree across upcoming meetings. For example, suppose futures prices imply an expected policy-rate increase equivalent to five basis points, and the simplified model allows only a 25-basis-point hike or no change. Under those assumptions, a five-basis-point expected increase corresponds to approximately a 20% probability of a hike. Actual FedWatch calculations are more sophisticated, particularly when multiple meetings or outcomes are involved. Crucially, these probabilities are model-derived estimates rather than direct observations of individual traders' beliefs. How Do Polymarket and Kalshi Predict Fed Decisions? Polymarket Turns Policy Outcomes Into Tradable Contracts Unlike FedWatch, Polymarket allows participants to trade contracts linked to the occurrence of specific events. Federal Reserve markets typically offer outcomes such as a 25-basis-point increase, an unchanged rate, or a rate reduction at a particular meeting. Traders buy and sell contracts based on their own estimates of what the Fed will ultimately announce. A contract trading at $0.80 can be interpreted as having a market-implied probability of approximately 80%, before accounting for trading costs, bid-ask spreads, liquidity, and other market frictions. If the specified event occurs, a winning contract generally settles for $1; otherwise, it settles for zero. As participants respond to economic data and monetary policy announcements, prices adjust continuously through trading activity. The important distinction is that Polymarket directly prices an explicitly defined event outcome. Its probabilities are not extracted from an underlying interest rate futures contract. This makes the platform intuitive for users who want a straightforward answer to questions such as whether the Fed will raise rates at its next meeting, although the contract's resolution rules and available liquidity must still be examined carefully. Kalshi Offers Another Event-Based Market Kalshi operates a similar event-driven model, allowing participants to trade contracts tied to economic indicators, policy decisions, and other measurable outcomes. Its Federal Reserve markets provide an additional reference point for investors comparing expectations across prediction markets and traditional financial derivatives. Kalshi's September 30 market update is particularly revealing. After softer inflation data, the probability of a 25-basis-point October hike dropped to 33%, while maintaining rates became the leading outcome at 65%. These prices reflected actual market activity and evolving expectations rather than an official Federal Reserve forecast. Although Polymarket and Kalshi share event-based structures, their respective trading conditions, contract specifications, participant bases, and liquidity can differ. Consequently, the two platforms may display slightly different probabilities for apparently identical monetary policy outcomes. Investors should therefore examine what each market actually measures before interpreting those differences as evidence of superior forecasting ability. Prediction Markets vs FedWatch: What Are the Main Differences? Although prediction markets and CME FedWatch both provide probabilities for future Federal Reserve decisions, they rely on fundamentally different pricing mechanisms. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to specific policy outcomes, including interest rate hikes, cuts, or pauses. Their probabilities are derived directly from market prices, reflecting how participants collectively assess the likelihood of an event. In contrast, CME FedWatch calculates probabilities using 30-Day Federal Funds futures prices and a mathematical framework that estimates potential changes in the federal funds target rate. This distinction means prediction markets directly price individual events, while FedWatch translates broader interest rate expectations into probabilities. Another important difference involves market participants, liquidity, and trading objectives. Prediction markets attract retail traders, professional speculators, and participants seeking exposure to specific economic outcomes. Their straightforward contract structures make Federal Reserve expectations relatively accessible, although prices can be influenced by limited liquidity, bid-ask spreads, and concentrated trading activity. CME FedWatch, meanwhile, draws information from the established federal funds futures market, where institutional investors, banks, and professional interest rate traders participate for hedging and speculation. While this market benefits from established financial infrastructure, its implied probabilities still depend on modeling assumptions and may be influenced by risk premia. These structural differences help explain why Polymarket, Kalshi, and CME FedWatch occasionally display different probabilities for the same Federal Reserve meeting. For example, a prediction market might assign a 20% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike, while FedWatch indicates a 17% probability of an increase. Such differences do not necessarily mean one forecast is more accurate. They may reflect differences in contract definitions, observation times, liquidity, or probability calculations. Ultimately, prediction markets offer a direct way to interpret expectations about specific policy outcomes, while CME FedWatch provides a futures-based perspective on monetary policy. Comparing both can help investors develop a more comprehensive understanding of interest rate uncertainty. Why Can the Same Fed Decision Have Different Probabilities? Imagine that Polymarket prices a 25-basis-point October hike at 20%, while FedWatch indicates 17%. The three-percentage-point difference does not automatically mean one market is wrong. It might reflect different trading times, liquidity conditions, contract definitions, investor demand, or calculation methods. In addition, a market contract covering only an exact 25-basis-point increase is not necessarily comparable to FedWatch's probability of any rate hike. The latter can include multiple target-rate outcomes above the current range. Similarly, a contract predicting no change at the October meeting does not necessarily imply that the Fed will refrain from increasing rates later in the year. The most meaningful comparison therefore requires matching the same meeting date, monetary policy outcome, and observation time. Without those controls, apparent forecasting disagreements may simply result from comparing different financial instruments. Are Prediction Markets Faster Than Futures Markets? Prediction markets are sometimes described as more responsive because traders can express a view on a particular event without trading an underlying interest rate derivative. However, direct event pricing does not automatically translate into faster information processing. Federal funds futures are closely monitored by professional market participants, and both types of markets can respond rapidly to scheduled economic releases. The distinction becomes particularly important during unexpected inflation or employment announcements. A smaller event market may experience sharp probability changes when a few participants trade, while a highly liquid futures market might reflect a broader set of expectations. Conversely, an active prediction market could incorporate event-specific information that is less visible in broader interest rate instruments. Determining which market reacts faster requires synchronized historical data, preferably collected at intraday intervals. It is not enough to compare a Polymarket quote from the morning with a FedWatch estimate published several hours later. What Could Change the October Fed Decision? Inflation Data Remains the Biggest Near-Term Catalyst The next major test is the September Consumer Price Index report, scheduled for October 14, followed by the Producer Price Index on October 15. Both releases arrive before the October 27-28 FOMC meeting and could significantly influence expectations. Stronger-than-anticipated price growth may revive the case for further tightening, particularly if energy costs continue feeding into broader consumer prices. Conversely, another round of softer inflation figures could reinforce expectations that the Fed can keep rates unchanged while evaluating the impact of September's increase. Investors should pay attention not only to headline inflation but also to underlying price measures and the distinction between temporary supply-driven pressures and persistent demand-driven inflation. Employment Weakness and Energy Prices Create Competing Risks The Fed also faces uncertainty surrounding employment. September's weaker payroll growth suggested that labor market conditions were cooling, potentially reducing the urgency for additional rate increases. Nevertheless, a single monthly report cannot establish a sustained deterioration, especially when employment estimates are frequently revised. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs continue to create upside inflation risks. This combination makes monetary policy particularly difficult to anticipate: softer hiring favors caution, while persistent price increases support continued tightening. Prediction markets and FedWatch may respond differently as participants evaluate which risk will have the greater influence on policymakers. October and December Expectations Must Be Separated Another important factor is the distinction between the timing and the direction of monetary policy. A high probability of unchanged rates in October does not necessarily imply that the Fed has completed its tightening cycle. The September meeting minutes indicated that most policymakers still considered another increase during 2026 potentially appropriate, while financial markets increasingly focused on December as a possible date. The December 8-9 FOMC meeting will also include updated economic projections, giving investors additional information about the Fed's expected rate path. For this reason, traders should compare October and December probabilities separately instead of using a single meeting's forecast to characterize the entire policy outlook. What Do Fed Rate Predictions Mean for Bitcoin and Crypto? Federal Reserve expectations influence the broader Crypto market through several financial channels. Interest rates affect borrowing costs, Treasury yields, dollar demand, and investors' willingness to hold volatile assets. Because Bitcoin does not generate contractual interest income, changes in the attractiveness of interest-bearing investments can also affect its relative appeal. On October 7, Bitcoin fell to approximately $83,682 before trading near $84,303 in a Barron's market update. The report highlighted pressure from rising Treasury yields, dollar strength, and geopolitical developments affecting energy prices. These conditions demonstrate why a lower probability of an immediate Fed hike does not automatically translate into a higher Bitcoin price. Can Prediction Markets Help Crypto Traders? Prediction markets may provide useful contextual information by showing how participants interpret economic events. If the probability of another rate hike falls sharply after a weak employment report, crypto investors can compare that change with Bitcoin price movements, Treasury yields, and the dollar. However, the probability itself is not a technical trading signal or a guarantee of future price direction. The relationship is particularly complicated when inflation and growth risks move in opposite directions. A Fed pause caused by improving inflation may support risk appetite, while a pause driven by deteriorating economic activity could coincide with weaker demand for speculative assets. Similarly, a high probability of tighter monetary policy may already be reflected in cryptocurrency prices before the official decision. For readers following the cryptocurrency market and discussions on KuCoin Square, the most useful approach is to treat Fed probabilities as one part of a broader macroeconomic framework. Bitcoin prices, ETF flows, derivatives positioning, dollar liquidity, and market leverage remain important independent variables. Can Prediction Markets Really Beat FedWatch? There is no convincing basis to declare a universal winner from the recent October rate forecasts alone. Both systems showed that market expectations were changing, but they capture different forms of trading activity. Prediction markets offer direct event-based prices, while CME FedWatch derives its estimates from established interest rate futures. Their respective usefulness depends on the event being studied, market depth, observation period, and desired application. An appropriate performance comparison would examine many historical FOMC decisions using synchronized probabilities recorded at fixed intervals before each meeting. Researchers could assess forecast calibration, Brier scores, responsiveness to economic announcements, and the effects of transaction costs. It would also be important to distinguish forecasting a binary rate decision from forecasting the broader expected path of interest rates. Ultimately, prediction markets and FedWatch may be more valuable as complementary indicators than as direct competitors. When their probabilities converge, investors gain insight into a shared market consensus. When they diverge, the gap provides an opportunity to investigate contract design, liquidity, risk premia, and differences in participant expectations. Neither system eliminates uncertainty, and neither should be treated as an official Fed forecast. Conclusion The dramatic reversal in October 2026 rate-hike expectations illustrates how rapidly financial markets can absorb new economic information. Following September's rate increase, softer inflation data and weaker employment growth pushed both prediction markets and futures-based estimates toward an October pause, even as Federal Reserve officials continued discussing the possibility of additional tightening before year-end. The real value of comparing Prediction Markets vs FedWatch lies in understanding how different instruments price the same monetary policy uncertainty. As the October 14 CPI report and October 28 Fed decision approach, Polymarket, Kalshi, and CME FedWatch will remain important tools for monitoring market expectations. For cryptocurrency investors, these probabilities offer useful macroeconomic context, but their signals should be evaluated alongside broader financial conditions rather than interpreted as direct Bitcoin price predictions. FAQs Can anyone trade Fed interest rate predictions on Polymarket? Access depends on the user's jurisdiction, the platform's eligibility requirements, and the specific market. Before participating, users should check whether the relevant contracts are legally accessible and understand their settlement conditions. Does a 90% prediction market probability guarantee that an event will happen? No. It means the market price implies a high estimated likelihood, not certainty. Even well-calibrated forecasts should occasionally experience outcomes assigned a relatively low probability. Does CME FedWatch use artificial intelligence to predict interest rates? CME FedWatch primarily uses a defined methodology based on federal funds futures prices and assumptions about policy-rate changes. It is not an AI-generated forecast or a direct survey of economists. Can prediction market prices be manipulated? Thinly traded contracts may be vulnerable to temporary price distortions from large orders, coordinated activity, or limited liquidity. High trading volume alone does not prove that a market is accurately pricing an event. Are prediction market probabilities and betting odds the same? They both communicate implied likelihoods, but contract settlement, pricing, transaction costs, and regulatory structures can differ. An event contract trading at $0.60 is commonly interpreted as implying approximately a 60% probability before market frictions. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investments carry risk. Please do your own research (DYOR). ⚠ For information purposes only. Crypto carries risk. Not financial advice!
Polymarket Odds of Anthropic Fable 5.2 Release by Oct. 12 Fall to 17% | TokenPost
Polymarket's implied probability that Anthropic will release a qualifying Fable model by Oct. 12 fell to 17% at 2:28 a.m. ET (06:28 UTC) Thursday. The contract's implied probability fell 31% over 24 hours. It resolves "Yes" if Anthropic makes a model publicly available between the contract's creation and the deadline, measured in Eastern time. To qualify, the model must include "Fable" in its name or identifier and carry a version number of 5.2 or higher. A formal launch, public testing or an open rolling waitlist counts as public availability. Closed testing and private access do not qualify. A version name or placeholder shown on Anthropic's website also does not qualify if the model has not been made publicly available. Fable 5.2, 5.3 and 6 are examples of versions that meet the stated criteria. Models without "Fable" in their names or identifiers do not qualify. The contract deadline is Oct. 12.
Polymarket Wisconsin Promo Code ROTOWIRE: Get $25 for October 2026
The Polymarket Wisconsin promo code ROTOWIRE gets new users a $25 after depositing just $10. Learn more about the Polymarket WI promo code here. The Polymarket Wisconsin promo code ROTOWIRE unlocks a welcome offer for new users on one of the top prediction market platforms in the country. Polymarket is live in Wisconsin, and traders in the state can sign up today to claim a $25. Learn more about the Polymarket promo code for Wisconsin users, terms and conditions and how to claim here! Polymarket Wisconsin Promo Code Details (October 2026) How to Claim the Polymarket Wisconsin Promo Code New users can claim the Polymarket Wisconsin promo code ROTOWIRE by entering it during sign up on the Polymarket app. Once your account is registered and verified, deposit at least $10 to unlock the $25. It's one of the more straightforward prediction market bonuses to claim, since there is no separate qualifying trade requirement. Polymarket Wisconsin Promo Code Terms & Conditions * Must be 18 years of age or older to participate * Available to new Polymarket users only * A minimum deposit of $10 is required to unlock the bonus * The bonus is credited to your account immediately after your qualifying deposit * Bonus funds cannot be withdrawn Is Polymarket Legal in Wisconsin? Polymarket remains available to Wisconsin residents, though the legal situation is being actively litigated. The Wisconsin Department of Justice has filed a lawsuit against Polymarket, along with several other prediction market operators, alleging illegal gambling, and the CFTC has countersued the state to assert federal jurisdiction. Check RotoWire's interactive map of prediction markets for the latest state by state legal status. Deposit and Withdrawals at Polymarket in Wisconsin
Polymarket South Carolina Promo Code ROTOWIRE: Get $25 for October 2026
The Polymarket South Carolina promo code ROTOWIRE gets new users a $25 after depositing just $10. Learn more about the Polymarket SC promo code here. The Polymarket South Carolina promo code ROTOWIRE unlocks a welcome offer for new users on one of the most popular prediction market platforms in the country. Polymarket is live in South Carolina, and traders in the state can sign up today to claim a $25. Learn more about the Polymarket promo code for South Carolina users, terms and conditions and how to claim here! Polymarket South Carolina Promo Code Details (October 2026) How to Claim the Polymarket South Carolina Promo Code New users can claim the Polymarket South Carolina promo code ROTOWIRE by entering it during sign up on the Polymarket app. Once your account is registered and verified, deposit at least $10 to unlock the $25. It's one of the more straightforward prediction market bonuses to claim, since there is no separate qualifying trade requirement. Polymarket South Carolina Promo Code Terms & Conditions * Must be 18 years of age or older to participate * Available to new Polymarket users only * A minimum deposit of $10 is required to unlock the bonus * The bonus is credited to your account immediately after your qualifying deposit * Bonus funds cannot be withdrawn Is Polymarket Legal in South Carolina? Yes, Polymarket operates in South Carolina as a federally regulated exchange, and trading remains available to residents today. No formal action has been taken against the platform in the state, so the legal picture remains favorable for now. Check RotoWire's interactive map of prediction markets for the latest state by state legal status. Deposit and Withdrawals at Polymarket in South Carolina
Polymarket Referral Code COVERS Gives a $25 Prediction Market Bonus Ahead of Rays vs Yankees Game 3
Claim the Polymarket referral code COVERS for a $25 trading bonus ahead of Yankees vs. Rays Game 3 on Wednesday night. Polymarket promo code COVERS unlocks a $25 trading bonus for new users ahead of Yankees vs. Rays Game 3 on Wednesday night, as Tampa Bay looks to complete a sweep of the American League Division Series. Signing up by Oct. 7 lets bettors claim the $25 trading bonus and trade on this pivotal ALDS clash between the Rays and Yankees. A qualifying $10 deposit activates the offer on one of the best prediction market apps on the market. Polymarket promo code details How Does the Polymarket Promo Code Work for Yankees vs. Rays Game 3? New users can activate the Polymarket promo code COVERS to secure a $25 trading bonus before placing a position on Yankees vs. Rays Game 3. A code is required at sign-up, and bettors must complete registration, verify their identity, and deposit at least $10 to unlock the reward. Once activated, the bonus can be applied to any market on the platform, including contracts tied to Wednesday's American League Division Series contest between the Rays and Yankees. Here is how the mechanics could play out when applied to this ALDS matchup: * If a trader places a position on the Yankees to win Game 3 and the market resolves in their favor, the resulting profit is theirs to keep once the 1x playthrough requirement is met. * If the position does not resolve favorably, such as Tampa Bay completing the sweep, the trader's position closes at a loss, and the bonus funds applied to it are not recoverable. Key terms to know before signing up: * The code must be entered during registration and cannot be applied after an account is created. * The offer is unavailable to users in Nevada. * Identity verification, including a photo ID and selfie, is required. * A minimum $10 deposit is necessary to trigger the bonus. Existing users can also explore the Polymarket referral code program to earn additional rewards by inviting friends. For a side-by-side look at how this offer compares, check out the best prediction market promos available right now. What Is the Polymarket Promo Code? The Polymarket promo code is COVERS. Enter it at signup, deposit at least $10, and complete an eligible real-money trade to unlock a $25 trading bonus. Use the correct code for your state Steps to Sign Up and Trade on Yankees vs. Rays Game 3 Follow these steps to claim the offer and place a position on Wednesday's game. Read the full Polymarket review for more details before signing up. Pages related to this topic
Judge weighs bid to dismiss soldier's Polymarket case tied to Maduro raid
A federal judge in New York heard arguments Wednesday on whether to dismiss the case against an Army soldier accused of using classified information about the operation to capture Nicolas Maduro to win more than $400,000 on Polymarket. U.S. District Judge Margaret Garnett questioned lawyers about the government's charges and the legal basis for applying commodities and fraud laws to the trades allegedly made by Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke. Garnett took the defense motions under advisement and did not issue a ruling. Stay informed.Stay ahead. Join Washington Examiner for unlimited access to the news, analysis, and commentary that matter most. See Options " Already a member? Log in Print subscriber? Click here to login/register your account Digital subscriber? Click here to login/register your account. Trusted reporting.Unlimited access. Subscribe for full access to Washington Examiner coverage, expert political analysis, and subscriber-only journalism. Get Unlimited Access " Already a member? Log in Cancel anytime. Tag: Army Courts Nicolas Maduro Pentagon Prediction Markets Venezuela
