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Polymarket has favorites for Time's Person of the Year. It's not good news for Trump
In a few months, TIME will announce its annual Person of the Year. If prediction markets are to be believed, Donald Trump will be disappointed with the results. On both Kalshi and Polymarket, the Republican, who has won Person of the Year twice, ranks a distant third. Making matters worse, the top two picks on both sites -- New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Pope Leo XIV -- have feuded with the president. The president has had an up-and-down relationship with Mamdani, the top pick on both sites. At various points, Trump has attacked his fellow New Yorker as a "communist," though a relatively friendly November meeting between the two sparked speculation they might forge an unlikely "bromance." "I think you're going to have, hopefully, a really great mayor -- the better he does, the happier I am," Trump said at the time. They met again in February, and Mamdani emphasized that he hoped he could work with Trump on issues such as housing, bringing a mock-up newspaper front page touting the fruits of their potential collaboration and Trump's starring role. Hopes for a true alliance between the two were quickly dashed, however. By April, Trump accused Mamdani, who has pushed for a tax on luxury second-homes, of "destroying" New York with his tax policies. In June, the Trump administration's border czar threatened to flood New York with ICE agents in response to the state passing a new package of sanctuary provisions. Mamdani, meanwhile, has repeatedly criticized the Trump administration's immigration policies. The president's relationship with Pope Leo has been ever more fraught. Leo, the first American pope, infuriated the White House on multiple occasions, including for criticizing what he said were the administration's "inhumane" immigration policies and for speaking out about Trump's threats to wipe out the Iranian civilization. The pope also took issue with administration claims that the Iran conflict was a righteous holy war. "Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs," Leo wrote on social media in April. These comments further angered the administration, with Vice President JD Vance, himself a high-profile Catholic convert, warning the pope to "be careful" when opining on matters of theology. President Trump, meanwhile, has accused the Pope of being "weak" on crime and "terrible" on foreign policy. Despite the Trump administration's strong support from Christians in the U.S., its immigration policies have driven a wedge between it and the Catholic Church, which is heavily involved in refugee resettlement work and has numerous members in the U.S. with immigrant backgrounds. In April, for instance, the Trump administration ended an $11 million federal contract with Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of Miami, a charity that has provided housing and assistance to migrant children for 60 years.
Polymarket has favorites for Time's Person of the Year. They are all Trump foes
In a few months, TIME will announce its annual Person of the Year. If prediction markets are to be believed, Donald Trump will be disappointed with the results. On both Kalshi and Polymarket, the Republican, who has won Person of the Year twice, ranks a distant third. Making matters worse, the top two picks on both sites -- New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Pope Leo XIV -- have feuded with the president. The president has had an up-and-down relationship with Mamdani, the top pick on both sites. At various points, Trump has attacked his fellow New Yorker as a "communist," though a relatively friendly November meeting between the two sparked speculation they might forge an unlikely "bromance." "I think you're going to have, hopefully, a really great mayor -- the better he does, the happier I am," Trump said at the time. They met again in February, and Mamdani emphasized that he hoped he could work with Trump on issues such as housing, bringing a mock-up newspaper front page touting the fruits of their potential collaboration and Trump's starring role. Hopes for a true alliance between the two were quickly dashed, however. By April, Trump accused Mamdani, who has pushed for a tax on luxury second-homes, of "destroying" New York with his tax policies. In June, the Trump administration's border czar threatened to flood New York with ICE agents in response to the state passing a new package of sanctuary provisions. Mamdani, meanwhile, has repeatedly criticized the Trump administration's immigration policies. The president's relationship with Pope Leo has been ever more fraught. Leo, the first American pope, infuriated the White House on multiple occasions, including for criticizing what he said were the administration's "inhumane" immigration policies and for speaking out about Trump's threats to wipe out the Iranian civilization. The pope also took issue with administration claims that the Iran conflict was a righteous holy war. "Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs," Leo wrote on social media in April. These comments further angered the administration, with Vice President JD Vance, himself a high-profile Catholic convert, warning the pope to "be careful" when opining on matters of theology. President Trump, meanwhile, has accused the Pope of being "weak" on crime and "terrible" on foreign policy. Despite the Trump administration's strong support from Christians in the U.S., its immigration policies have driven a wedge between it and the Catholic Church, which is heavily involved in refugee resettlement work and has numerous members in the U.S. with immigrant backgrounds. In April, for instance, the Trump administration ended an $11 million federal contract with Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of Miami, a charity that has provided housing and assistance to migrant children for 60 years.
Polymarket has favorites for Time's Person of the Year. It's not good news for Trump
In a few months, TIME will announce its annual Person of the Year. If prediction markets are to be believed, Donald Trump will be disappointed with the results. On both Kalshi and Polymarket, the Republican, who has won Person of the Year twice, ranks a distant third. Making matters worse, the top two picks on both sites -- New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Pope Leo XIV -- have feuded with the president. The president has had an up-and-down relationship with Mamdani, the top pick on both sites. At various points, Trump has attacked his fellow New Yorker as a "communist," though a relatively friendly November meeting between the two sparked speculation they might forge an unlikely "bromance." "I think you're going to have, hopefully, a really great mayor -- the better he does, the happier I am," Trump said at the time. They met again in February, and Mamdani emphasized that he hoped he could work with Trump on issues such as housing, bringing a mock-up newspaper front page touting the fruits of their potential collaboration and Trump's starring role. Hopes for a true alliance between the two were quickly dashed, however. By April, Trump accused Mamdani, who has pushed for a tax on luxury second-homes, of "destroying" New York with his tax policies. In June, the Trump administration's border czar threatened to flood New York with ICE agents in response to the state passing a new package of sanctuary provisions. Mamdani, meanwhile, has repeatedly criticized the Trump administration's immigration policies. The president's relationship with Pope Leo has been ever more fraught. Leo, the first American pope, infuriated the White House on multiple occasions, including for criticizing what he said were the administration's "inhumane" immigration policies and for speaking out about Trump's threats to wipe out the Iranian civilization. The pope also took issue with administration claims that the Iran conflict was a righteous holy war. "Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs," Leo wrote on social media in April. These comments further angered the administration, with Vice President JD Vance, himself a high-profile Catholic convert, warning the pope to "be careful" when opining on matters of theology. President Trump, meanwhile, has accused the Pope of being "weak" on crime and "terrible" on foreign policy. Despite the Trump administration's strong support from Christians in the U.S., its immigration policies have driven a wedge between it and the Catholic Church, which is heavily involved in refugee resettlement work and has numerous members in the U.S. with immigrant backgrounds. In April, for instance, the Trump administration ended an $11 million federal contract with Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of Miami, a charity that has provided housing and assistance to migrant children for 60 years.
Polymarket has favorites for Time's Person of the Year. They are all Trump foes
Add Yahoo as a preferred source to see more of our stories on Google. In a few months, TIME will announce its annual Person of the Year. If prediction markets are to be believed, Donald Trump will be disappointed with the results. On both Kalshi and Polymarket, the Republican, who has won Person of the Year twice, ranks a distant third. Making matters worse, the top two picks on both sites -- New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Pope Leo XIV -- have feuded with the president. The president has had an up-and-down relationship with Mamdani, the top pick on both sites. At various points, Trump has attacked his fellow New Yorker as a "communist," though a relatively friendly November meeting between the two sparked speculation they might forge an unlikely "bromance." "I think you're going to have, hopefully, a really great mayor -- the better he does, the happier I am," Trump said at the time. They met again in February, and Mamdani emphasized that he hoped he could work with Trump on issues such as housing, bringing a mock-up newspaper front page touting the fruits of their potential collaboration and Trump's starring role. Hopes for a true alliance between the two were quickly dashed, however. By April, Trump accused Mamdani, who has pushed for a tax on luxury second-homes, of "destroying" New York with his tax policies. In June, the Trump administration's border czar threatened to flood New York with ICE agents in response to the state passing a new package of sanctuary provisions. Mamdani, meanwhile, has repeatedly criticized the Trump administration's immigration policies. The president's relationship with Pope Leo has been ever more fraught. Leo, the first American pope, infuriated the White House on multiple occasions, including for criticizing what he said were the administration's "inhumane" immigration policies and for speaking out about Trump's threats to wipe out the Iranian civilization. The pope also took issue with administration claims that the Iran conflict was a righteous holy war. "Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs," Leo wrote on social media in April. These comments further angered the administration, with Vice President JD Vance, himself a high-profile Catholic convert, warning the pope to "be careful" when opining on matters of theology. President Trump, meanwhile, has accused the Pope of being "weak" on crime and "terrible" on foreign policy. Despite the Trump administration's strong support from Christians in the U.S., its immigration policies have driven a wedge between it and the Catholic Church, which is heavily involved in refugee resettlement work and has numerous members in the U.S. with immigrant backgrounds. In April, for instance, the Trump administration ended an $11 million federal contract with Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of Miami, a charity that has provided housing and assistance to migrant children for 60 years.
Polymarket has favorites for Time's Person of the Year. They are all Trump foes
In a few months, TIME will announce its annual Person of the Year. If prediction markets are to be believed, Donald Trump will be disappointed with the results. On both Kalshi and Polymarket, the Republican, who has won Person of the Year twice, ranks a distant third. Making matters worse, the top two picks on both sites -- New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Pope Leo XIV -- have feuded with the president. The president has had an up-and-down relationship with Mamdani, the top pick on both sites. At various points, Trump has attacked his fellow New Yorker as a "communist," though a relatively friendly November meeting between the two sparked speculation they might forge an unlikely "bromance." "I think you're going to have, hopefully, a really great mayor -- the better he does, the happier I am," Trump said at the time. They met again in February, and Mamdani emphasized that he hoped he could work with Trump on issues such as housing, bringing a mock-up newspaper front page touting the fruits of their potential collaboration and Trump's starring role. Hopes for a true alliance between the two were quickly dashed, however. By April, Trump accused Mamdani, who has pushed for a tax on luxury second-homes, of "destroying" New York with his tax policies. In June, the Trump administration's border czar threatened to flood New York with ICE agents in response to the state passing a new package of sanctuary provisions. Mamdani, meanwhile, has repeatedly criticized the Trump administration's immigration policies. The president's relationship with Pope Leo has been ever more fraught. Leo, the first American pope, infuriated the White House on multiple occasions, including for criticizing what he said were the administration's "inhumane" immigration policies and for speaking out about Trump's threats to wipe out the Iranian civilization. The pope also took issue with administration claims that the Iran conflict was a righteous holy war. "Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs," Leo wrote on social media in April. These comments further angered the administration, with Vice President JD Vance, himself a high-profile Catholic convert, warning the pope to "be careful" when opining on matters of theology. President Trump, meanwhile, has accused the Pope of being "weak" on crime and "terrible" on foreign policy. Despite the Trump administration's strong support from Christians in the U.S., its immigration policies have driven a wedge between it and the Catholic Church, which is heavily involved in refugee resettlement work and has numerous members in the U.S. with immigrant backgrounds. In April, for instance, the Trump administration ended an $11 million federal contract with Catholic Charities of the Archdiocese of Miami, a charity that has provided housing and assistance to migrant children for 60 years.
CFTC, US soldier Accused of Illegal Polymarket Bet Spar over Interpretation of Prediction Markets
A judge stayed the CFTC's civil case against a soldier who allegedly used nonpublic information for a Polymarket bet, but the regulator is trying to weigh in on the criminal case. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a soldier who allegedly made more than $400,000 using nonpublic information to trade event contracts on prediction market platform Polymarket, is pushing back against attempts by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to weigh in on his criminal case. In a Monday filing in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, Van Dyke's lawyers opposed the CFTC's efforts to file an amicus brief relating to claims in his case. The letter referred to the commodities regulator's counsel filing a notice requesting permission from the court to provide its views on many of Van Dyke's defense claims, including that event contracts on platforms like Polymarket were not "swaps" under the purview of the CFTC. "The CFTC is no sheep 'friend of the Court' here," said defense attorneys. "It is a regulatory wolf, with its own case against Mr. Van Dyke that it refuses to pursue itself. Rather, like a true coursing predator, the CTFC seeks to advance its own interests through the back door of an amicus brief instead of facing its own case against Mr. Van Dyke head on. This Court should not countenance the CFTC's litigation gambits." US authorities charged Van Dyke with fraud in April over allegations he traded event contracts on Polymarket related to the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, an operation for which he was privy to nonpublic information. The incident has been one of the leading cases lawmakers and critics of prediction markets point to as an example of potential manipulation on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. A federal judge already ordered that the CFTC's civil case against Van Dyke be stayed "pending the outcome of the criminal proceeding." He has pleaded not guilty to all charges and a criminal trial could potentially begin in late 2026 or early 2027.
Polymarket Trump Impeachment Odds Explained
Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You could lose all of your capital. Prediction Market Polymarket traders price a House impeachment of Donald Trump before his term ends at roughly 68%, against a fraction of that, around 2%, for the same outcome landing before December 31, 2026. That 33x spread between two contracts asking a nearly identical question is the real story: it's not a prediction that impeachment is coming, it's a market pricing the calendar and congressional arithmetic separately from the politics. The Contract Split: Two Clocks, One President Polymarket's "Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?" market resolves "Yes" if the House passes at least one article of impeachment by simple majority any time before January 20, 2029. As of its last update on August 24, 2026, that contract was trading around 68%, on roughly $94,463 in cumulative volume since the market opened on March 19, 2026. A separate, shorter-dated contract asks the same question but caps the window at December 31, 2026, before the newly elected House even takes its committee assignments. That contract has traded at a premium of closer to 2%, according to Polymarket pricing referenced in Washington Examiner coverage of the market. Same event, same officeholder, wildly different implied probability, because the two contracts are betting on different Congresses. Why the Math Changes After the Midterms Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers, and a GOP-controlled House has no institutional incentive to advance articles of impeachment against a Republican president absent a major break within the party. That's the entire explanation for the 2% price: it's a bet that this specific Congress will act before its term expires, and the base rate for that is close to zero. The 68% figure prices in something structurally different, the 2026 midterms. If Democrats retake the House, they gain subpoena power, Judiciary Committee control, and the ability to schedule a floor vote on their own terms, none of which exists under the current majority. Forecasters tracking generic ballot trends have generally shown Democrats favored or competitive to flip the chamber, and Polymarket's long-dated contract is effectively a compounded bet: probability of a Democratic House multiplied by the probability that a Democratic majority actually brings articles to a vote sometime in the roughly two years of runway that follow. Prediction markets have increasingly become the fastest-moving gauge for exactly this kind of time-bound political risk. The same dynamic played out in Kalshi's government shutdown odds market, where prices fluctuated in lockstep with the legislative calendar rather than with sentiment alone. The mechanism is identical here: traders aren't voting on whether Trump deserves impeachment, they're pricing the sequence of procedural gates that would have to open first. Impeachment Is Not Removal, And Markets Know It Both Polymarket contracts resolve on House passage alone. Neither requires a Senate trial, conviction, or removal from office to settle "Yes." That distinction matters enormously for how these odds should be read, and it's grounded directly in constitutional mechanics rather than market convention. Per the Congressional Research Service's report on House impeachment procedure, the House impeaches by a simple majority vote adopting articles, effectively a formal accusation, comparable to a criminal indictment. Removal is an entirely separate Senate proceeding requiring a two-thirds vote of senators present to convict, and disqualification from future office requires only a majority vote as a distinct, additional step. The CRS report notes the House has impeached three presidents, Andrew Johnson in 1868, Bill Clinton in 1998, and Trump himself in both 2019 and 2021, and in every case, the Senate declined to convict. A 68% price on House impeachment therefore says nothing about the far higher bar of Senate removal, which is a structurally separate market question entirely. When the Calendar Changes the Odds, Prediction Market Kalshi Lets Traders Price the Trump And Political Path Directly The Trump impeachment markets show why political probabilities can swing dramatically without anyone changing their underlying view of the politician involved. What changes is the path: elections, congressional control, committee power, deadlines, and the number of procedural steps still left. Kalshi gives traders a way to take positions directly on those kinds of political outcomes. Rather than trying to translate a House flip, impeachment vote, or government funding fight into a stock, Bitcoin, or bond trade, users can focus on the event itself and the exact conditions required for the contract to settle. That distinction matters when two similar-looking questions can carry wildly different probabilities simply because one has months to resolve and the other has years. For traders already thinking in terms of congressional arithmetic and timing, Kalshi turns that thesis into a market of its own. Eligible new users who join Kalshi through CryptoNews can also receive $25 through our referral link.
Kalshi and Polymarket bets on clinical trials criticized as 'ghastly'
As a soon-to-be seventh grader, Joshua Pederson's son is not exactly brimming with enthusiasm when he talks about the upcoming school year. "The thing I'm looking forward to most in seventh grade is lunch, and the thing I'm looking forward to least is everything else," said the 12-year-old. Art is his passion, but he doesn't take classes. He likes teaching himself. "I like drawing scary stuff and robots," he said. "Because I think scary stuff and robots are cool." Two years ago, his parents, who live in Boston, noticed a lump around his ribs that quickly spiraled into a nightmare scenario: It was cancer. Pederson asked that his son's name be withheld to discuss details of his medical condition. After months of grueling chemotherapy and radiation, he was declared cancer-free last summer. Months later, however, the cancer returned. So Pederson entered his son into a clinical trial for a novel treatment. That's around the time Pederson read the news that prediction market sites Kalshi and Polymarket have begun allowing people to bet on the outcomes of clinical trials and whether the Food and Drug Administration will approve new medications. "What seemed to be missed in the CEO statements was the fact that there were going to be patients on the other side of these bets," said Pederson, who is a humanities professor at Boston University. Bettors will make or lose money based on the success or failure of a clinical trial, a situation Pederson views as horrific. "A clinical trial failing is a more sanitized euphemism for, people are going to suffer, people are going to die, people are going to have one fewer clinical option available to them in one of the most difficult medical situations of their entire life," he said. Researchers fear 'undermining trial integrity' Billions of dollars are traded every week on the lightly regulated prediction market sites, where users bet on everything from movie reviews to elections to conflicts in the Middle East. Clinical trials are just the latest area where the industry's rapid growth is raising ethical questions. Kalshi claims such bets will provide a new source of information about which drugs will get approved, and what clinical trials will show promising results, which the company says can help investors decide what new drugs to fund. "If you want to ban profiting from the failure of clinical trials, you would start with the stock market, where the financial incentive for this type of profit is orders of magnitude larger," said Kalshi spokesman Jack Such, pointing to stock market short sellers who have profited from clinical trial failures. "While Kalshi and the stock market are the same in this regard, they do differ in one important way: the stock market doesn't give any valuable information to researchers," Such said. Drug trial researchers, though, are far from convinced. David Tsai, who runs clinical trials at a biotech company in the San Francisco Bay Area, started an online petition pushing for such betting to be banned, making the case that betting on drug trials "threatens the very foundation of trust and integrity in biotechnology." Tsai is concerned that the prospect of betting provides those involved with a clinical trial a reason to tamper with the results for a prediction market payout. "If we were running a trial for an oncology drug that requires an infusion, a pharmacist who had placed a bet saying that it's gonna work well, or doesn't work well, could obviously adjust the infusion rate, could adjust the source temperature of the drug," he said. "They could change any number of variables that could obviously have a direct impact [on] how the trial and the data and the patient safety would come out." Another skeptic is Nicholas Zaorsky, a professor of radiation oncology at the Mayo Clinic in Jacksonville, Fla., who has helped run clinical trials and agrees that prediction markets can interfere with the advancement of life-saving drugs. "Prediction markets can be valuable in some settings because they aggregate information, but clinical trials are fundamentally different: investigators, coordinators, and sometimes even participants can directly influence aspects of the outcomes being wagered on," Zaorsky said. "That creates financial incentives that risk undermining trial integrity." Patient's father: People betting on trials are 'distanced from the real cost' Kalshi has tapped its own experts, including Anne Wojcicki, the founder of genetic testing company 23andMe, to vouch for the markets as a way of staying ahead of medical breakthroughs and for making clinical trials more accessible. "Most patients don't know about the choices available in clinical trials or which programs are most promising. The opportunity to have an open, transparent dataset about trial probabilities is extremely promising and empowering for people," a white paper sponsored by Kalshi stated. On Kalshi, users can currently bet on whether a weight-loss medication and a breast cancer treatment will be approved by federal regulators and on what date. Polymarket, which declined to comment, is taking wagers on the approval of cancer treatments and whether the U.S. will allow Chinese peptides to be sold to Americans. The possibility of insider trading, Kalshi argues, will be minimized by company safeguards verifying employment and tools to surveil for unusual market activity. Indeed, prediction markets have helped identify insider traders in other markets, from President Trump's teleprompter operator to former Congressman George Santos to a special forces soldier who was betting based on military intelligence about the toppling of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Given just how many people can be involved with clinical trials, Tsai thinks it might not be so easy to preemptively catch every bad actor. Pederson is also skeptical. He argues the markets obscure the patients at the center of clinical trials, who have the most at stake from their outcomes. "One of the things that has struck me about these platforms is that they're flashy and they're gamified in such a way that you're often kind of distanced from the real cost," he said. Kalshi says it is offering bets on late-stage clinical trials where participants have already been chosen. And it says it won't allow betting on markets where all trial subjects are minors. But that could change. If it does, Pederson says wondering whether researchers in a trial could be motivated by prediction market profits will add to his anxieties -- and to the burden his son is already carrying. "The weight on him and what he's being asked to do, and what he's being asked to endure, is already so much," Pederson said. He hopes that Kalshi and Polymarket will stop letting speculators place bets that clinical trials won't succeed. Bettors, he argues, should not be rooting for an experimental medicine to fail just to earn a buck. "It's a dark idea," he said. "It's quite ghastly."
Anthropic Tests Recruits On Safety Vs Equity As $2T Odds Rise
Anthropic Asks Recruits How They'd Feel if Its Stock Hit Zero. Traders See 68% Chance of $2 Trillion This Year Anthropic reportedly screens job candidates with a culture interview testing whether they would put the company's mission ahead of their future wealth. One applicant was asked how they would feel if a safety decision sent Anthropic's stock to zero. Polymarket traders see a radically different future for the Claude maker, giving Anthropic a 68% chance of reaching a $2 trillion valuation by year-end and a 47% chance of hitting $2.5 trillion. Would You Sacrifice Your Anthropic Fortune? Axios reported that every Anthropic job candidate undergoes a culture interview conducted by an employee nominated for the role. The questions are suggested rather than fully scripted, according to a former employee familiar with the process. Axios cited a Blind post from a candidate who said they would not be happy if the stock went to zero, arguing that Anthropic should pursue its mission while building a sustainable business. The candidate said the interviewer "didn't seem to like that answer." Trending Get a 1% Match on Your First Deposit of $1,000+ The concern appears to come from the top. CEO Dario Amodei has himself questioned whether newer employees are joining for the right reasons, a source told Axios. Employees Are Betting on the Upside Anthropic employees have already had an opportunity to exchange their future upside for cash. Investors reportedly lined up roughly $6 billion for a tender offer priced at a $350 billion valuation, but current and former employees declined to sell enough shares to meet that demand. The value of that decision has risen sharply on paper. Anthropic's May funding round valued the company at $965 billion, while its Nasdaq Private Market mark has since reached about $1.22 trillion. Its annualized revenue run rate surged from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to more than $65 billion by July. Amodei reportedly owns about 2% of Anthropic, a stake that would be worth roughly $40 billion at a $2 trillion valuation, although he has pledged to donate 80% of his wealth. Anthropic Has Already Faced the Choice Anthropic lost a Pentagon contract worth up to $200 million after rejecting Claude's use for mass domestic surveillance or fully autonomous weapons. The resulting supply-chain designation threatened hundreds of millions or potentially billions more in 2026 revenue, the company told a court. In February, however, Anthropic revised its safety policy and removed a pledge to pause scaling or delay deployment if its safeguards failed to keep pace with model capabilities. The company said pausing alone could make the world less safe if less cautious rivals continued developing more powerful systems. Together, the two episodes show how Anthropic handles the trade-off in practice: it has sacrificed revenue over specific uses of Claude, but will not necessarily slow development while its rivals continue. Image: Shutterstock Markets Dan Ives Says Nvidia's 15% AI Server Price Hike Is Bullish for Tech. Could Micron Be the Real Winner? Prices for Nvidia-powered AI servers are rising more than 15% as memory costs surge. Dan Ives says the move is bullish, but Micron could benefit most. 3 min read Read this article Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.
CFTC backs Polymarket case against US soldier
We uphold a strict editorial policy that focuses on factual accuracy, relevance, and impartiality. Our in-house created content is meticulously reviewed by a team of seasoned editors to ensure compliance with the highest standards in reporting and publishing. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is backing the criminal case against Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US Army master sergeant accused of using classified military information to make more than $400,000 trading Polymarket event contracts tied to Venezuela and Nicolás Maduro. In an August 21 notice, the CFTC asked the US District Judge Margaret M. Garnett for permission to file an amicus brief supporting prosecutors as Van Dyke seeks to dismiss Commodity Exchange Act charges. He argues the contracts are not swaps under federal law and says applying its anti-fraud provision to his conduct would be unconstitutional. "Both contentions are wrong," CFTC Counselor Cameron Sinsheimer wrote in the letter. The regulator argues Congress defined swaps broadly enough to include the event contracts Van Dyke traded. It says adopting his interpretation could also significantly restrict federal oversight of prediction markets. "Van Dyke's distortion of the CEA's text, if accepted, would undermine the Commission's jurisdiction over a huge range of event contracts whose notional volume totals into the tens of billions of dollars," Sinsheimer wrote. CFTC says Polymarket event contracts fall under federal swaps law in US soldier case Van Dyke, 38, served with US Army Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. Prosecutors say his role in Operation Absolute Resolve gave him access to classified and other nonpublic details about a mission targeting Maduro. "The core theory of the Indictment is that Van Dyke took information that he had pledged to keep confidential and, though he was duty-bound not to do so, he used it to make a personal profit," prosecutors said. Van Dyke had signed nondisclosure agreements covering classified material. One agreement concerning "Western Hemisphere Operations" said information obtained through his work "is now and will remain the property of the United States Government." According to prosecutors, he opened a Polymarket account on December 26, 2025, before spending about $33,934 on contracts involving Venezuela and Maduro through January 2. US special forces captured Maduro and his wife in Caracas on January 3. Prosecutors say the successful trades left Van Dyke with more than $400,000 in net profit. A grand jury indicted him in April on five counts covering confidential government information, commodities and swap fraud, wire fraud and an unlawful monetary transaction. He pleaded not guilty and was released on $250,000 bail with travel restrictions. Prosecutors have called it the Justice Department's first criminal insider-trading prosecution involving prediction markets. Van Dyke moved to dismiss the indictment on July 31. Van Dyke "committed an old crime on a new platform," they said. "Because the Indictment alleges all that it must," prosecutors said, "the next step is trial." The CFTC also rejects Van Dyke's argument that he lacked sufficient notice that federal law covered his alleged conduct. It points to the Commodity Exchange Act, its own regulatory actions and similar contracts traded on CFTC-registered exchanges. The agency says its proposed filing could help the court address legal questions with implications beyond Van Dyke's prosecution. "Here, the proposed amicus brief is both timely and useful, and will aid the court in its deliberation of this matter by offering insights not available from the parties," Sinsheimer wrote. Featured image: CFTC via Wikimedia Commons / Canva
Researchers: 152 Polymarket "Orca" Traders Likely Bet on Inside Military Information - NaturalNews.com
According to the group's analysis, first reported by Reuters, the wallets earned about $8 million combined and posted an average win rate of 97.2% across their wagers. The report by ACDC comes as policymakers scrutinize the prediction-market industry. It also followed Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke being charged with using classified information to place bets on a prediction market. The U.S. Department of State has issued a memorandum reminding employees worldwide that using undisclosed official information for financial gain is a "very serious offense" that will not be tolerated, according to a Wall Street Journal report covered by Russia Today . Research Methodology and "Orca" Identification ACDC said it analyzed all settled markets through May 5. It defined a long-shot bet as at least $2,500 placed cumulatively within an hour on an outcome with odds of 35% or less. Under that definition, the group identified 556 "Orca" wallets. The name comes from the killer whale's precise hunting behavior, ACDC said. Those traders often opened accounts, placed successful long-shot bets in niche markets, cashed out and disappeared, according to the group. The group's method mirrors patterns seen in traditional markets. Nearly 10,000 crude oil short contracts, valued at approximately $920 million, were placed at 3:40 a.m. on May 6, and Axios reported that Washington and Tehran were nearing an agreement at 4:50 a.m., according to market commentary platform the Kobeissi Letter . Analysts have also documented approximately $7 billion in suspiciously timed oil futures trades across four separate days in March and April, executed before major U.S.-Iran announcements, according to a separate review . Limitations and Alternative Explanations ACDC said Orca traits could be explained by pure luck, and not all potential insiders fit the pattern. Van Dyke, who was charged with using classified information to bet on the removal of ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, built his position slowly and is not among the 152 wallets identified, the group said. Some military Orca wallets had been flagged before, but ACDC said it found dozens more previously unreported wallets. A Department of War spokesperson said the department does not comment on intelligence-related matters or third-party research findings. Copycat Bets and Security Risks The report said military Orca trades appeared to attract copycat bets from deep-pocketed "Whales" and automated bots. This pattern may amplify and broadcast insider signals to foreign adversaries, according to the research. An Orca bet on U.S. military action in Iran hours before June 2025 strikes was followed by copycat wagers of $200,000 and $100,000, the research found. U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites that month were followed by Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint . According to the research, similar Orca bets before the Feb. 28 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran prompted a flurry of first-time long-shot bets. The report said the rapid succession of wagers showed that public order books can reveal sensitive trading patterns in real time. Polymarket and Regulatory Response Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment. The company has said it monitors suspicious activity and has referred dozens of trader wallets to authorities, including in the Maduro case. Polymarket has said its public ledger allows for greater scrutiny of trading behavior. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission declined to comment on the findings. The agency has said it will strictly police misconduct and has brought charges in at least three cases. Polymarket has drawn attention for its high-profile political markets; in July 2024, the platform reported that odds of then-Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance being picked as Donald Trump's running mate had risen by 287% . Recommendations and Conclusions ACDC recommends requiring all traders to prove identity, withholding payouts on suspicious trades pending investigation, and banning markets where non-public information may be most actionable and profitable, the group said. ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi said "it would be naive to think foreign-intelligence agencies aren't monitoring these markets." The group said limiting who can bet or relying on law enforcement "will not be enough." The findings also raise broader questions about data collection and privacy. One book describes a future in which artificial intelligence replaces individual choice . Another notes that cybersecurity efforts using large-scale data systems have not yet taken hold, citing breaches at Equifax, Yahoo and Under Armour .
$20 Polymarket referral code "CUSE" scheduled for Liberty-Fever tonight
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