News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
Bitter Rivals Kalshi and Polymarket Unite to Battle Minnesota Over Betting Ban
Kalshi and Polymarket, two fierce rivals, have filed a lawsuit to stop Minnesota from enforcing a new statewide law that bans prediction market platforms. The firms claim that the contracts they offer are federally regulated products, while the state argues that the law is vital to address risks tied to gambling. The case could help define the extent of state authority to regulate prediction markets. 4th of July Sale - 70% Off * Unlock powerful investing tools and data-driven insights with TipRanks Premium for more confident investment decisions. * Discover top stock picks and new investment opportunities through TipRanks' Smart Investor Newsletter. Minnesota Enacts First Statewide Prediction Market Ban Minnesota's new law makes it a felony to operate, host, or advertise prediction markets in the state, forcing platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket to shut down or face criminal charges. It is the first U.S. state law to explicitly ban such platforms, covering contracts tied to entertainment, elections, sports, weather, public health crises, and wars. Governor Tim Walz signed the measure into law on May 18, and it is set to take effect on August 1. Supporters, led by Democratic Representative Emma Greenman, say the law is needed to regulate emerging forms of gambling and protect consumers and minors. Kalshi, Polymarket Push Back Against Minnesota Ban Kalshi and Polymarket filed the case in the U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota, asking the court to temporarily block the law before it takes effect. A federal judge in Minneapolis heard the case on July 2 but did not issue an immediate ruling. The firms contend that prediction markets are lawful financial products used for forecasting and managing risk, not gambling. They also say the ban could push users toward offshore or unregulated platforms instead of regulated U.S. markets. In addition, Kalshi and Polymarket argue their event contracts fall under the sole jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), making Minnesota's law incompatible with federal oversight. The CFTC has also filed a separate lawsuit against the state, saying event-based contracts should be regulated at the federal level rather than by individual states. Can I Invest in Kalshi or Polymarket? Kalshi and Polymarket are private companies, meaning they do not yet have publicly traded shares. However, investors seeking exposure to the broader prediction market or event-contract space may consider publicly listed firms such as Robinhood Markets (HOOD), DraftKings (DKNG), and Flutter Entertainment (FLUT). (See Their Stock Forecasts)
Does Someone on Polymarket Know That Putin Is Going Down?
Can't-miss innovations from the bleeding edge of science and tech Earlier this year, a major scandal rocked the prediction markets world after an account correctly bet $20,000 on an imminent attack on Venezuelan soil. Just hours later, US president Donald Trump issued orders authorizing the military strike, an invasion that saw Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro get kidnapped by US soldiers. Rampant insider trading has long plagued platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Even tragic events like devastating wildfires and deadly conflict are game, with insiders getting caught capitalizing on nonpublic information to gain an edge over an unsuspecting public -- and leaving them to hold the bag. Case in point, a US Special Forces soldier was charged by the Department of Justice for committing "commodities fraud" and "making an unlawful monetary transaction" after betting on the Venezuela invasion on Polymarket. Now, a mysterious bettor on Polymarket has staked around $409,000 on Russian president Vladimir Putin leaving office by the end of this year, once again drawing attention to the topic. As NBC News reports, the account is called "ZnotluvuiSamez," and features the Ukrainian flag as its profile picture. The account made multiple big bets surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian war, including $409,000 on a contract that asks if "Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?" According to users' overall bets, there's currently a "11 percent chance" that Putin will be out by the end of the year. Of course, a massive bet is far from a guarantee that Putin will no longer be president, whether through an ouster or a decision to step down. For one, Putin isn't up for reelection until four years from now -- and given the country's track record, it's not like the democratic process is being in any way respected regardless. The news comes after Moscow was hammered by renewed Ukrainian drone strikes, with former US defense secretary Leon Panetta telling NewsNation on Wednesday that "it's clear right now that Putin is cornered in this situation and is not quite sure what to do." "He obviously ought to, frankly, negotiate some kind of ceasefire, but knowing Putin, he will continue to resist that, and Russia is going to pay the price," he added. Ehile there's no evidence to suggest an imminent ouster, the sheer amount of insider trading on Polymarket lends the enormous bet at least some credence. At the same time, the war in Ukraine is showing no sign of letting up, with Putin ruling out any future peace talks. In other words, it's not looking likely that the president will simply hang up his coat in the middle of a raging conflict -- and after over 26 years of ruling Russia with an iron fist. More on Polymarket: Grim New Prediction Market Lets Gamblers Bet on Raging Wildfires, Even as Families Flee in Terror
Spot Bitcoin ETFs end outflows as Polymarket prices 99.95% odds above $50K
Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit $221.7M, Lifting Polymarket "Bitcoin Above ___ on July 4?" Odds Toward Higher Strikes U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $221.7 million on Thursday, snapping a 10-day outflow streak, as traders watched whether renewed fund demand could support Bitcoin's rebound. On Polymarket's ladder market "Bitcoin above ___ on July 4?", pricing continues to imply high odds that Bitcoin stays above lower strike levels into the July 4 resolution window. Key Takeaways * Polymarket prices imply a 99.95% chance Bitcoin will be above $50,000 on July 4. * Traders kept the ladder skewed to the upside as ETF flows flipped positive, while higher strikes remain heavily discounted. * The contract resolves at 2026-07-04T16:00:00+00:00, with odds little changed over the past 24 hours. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million of net inflows on Thursday, the biggest one-day intake in two months, ending a 10-day stretch of outflows, according to SoSoValue. Fidelity's FBTC led with $165.96 million of inflows, followed by ARKB with $91.84 million and HODL with $4.35 million. BlackRock's IBIT, the largest bitcoin ETF, was the exception, posting a $40.43 million outflow. The 10-day run of redemptions totaled $2.73 billion, leaving year-to-date net outflows at about $5.4 billion. The report said the inflow rebound helped validate Bitcoin's move back to around $61,700 after it fell below $58,000 earlier in the week, though analysts said sustained inflows would be needed to confirm a lasting recovery. Polymarket Ladder Sees $360,302 Volume as Bitcoin $50K Odds Sit at 99.95% and $62K Is Priced at 40% Polymarket has logged $360,302 in volume on the "Bitcoin above ___ on July 4?" ladder, with pricing clustered at near-certainty for several lower strikes. The market shows $50,000 Yes 99.95% / No 0.05%, and the same 99.95% / 0.05% split at both $52,000 and $54,000, indicating traders see those downside levels as extremely unlikely to be breached by the July 4 close. Confidence drops at mid-range levels, with $60,000 Yes 94.5% / No 5.5% and $62,000 Yes 40% / No 60% implying a more balanced view around that threshold. Upside tails remain priced as long shots, including $64,000 Yes 3.05% / No 96.95% and $70,000 Yes 0.05% / No 99.95%. Watch whether ETF flows remain positive after Thursday's reversal and whether the ladder's inflection point near the $62,000 strike shifts ahead of the 2026-07-04T16:00:00+00:00 resolution. Beyond Bitcoin ETFs: Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching Right Now Beyond the July 4 ladder, traders have been concentrating liquidity in broader, time-boxed crypto range contracts that effectively map near-term and long-dated sentiment. "What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?" has drawn $45,944,904 in volume, while "What price will Bitcoin hit in July?" sits at $1,302,181 and "What price will Bitcoin hit June 29-July 5?" at $917,465. Activity has also spilled into ether, with "What price will Ethereum hit in July?" seeing $682,596 as participants position across correlated moves. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Bitcoin above ___ on July 4? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Jul 04, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$360,302 Top strike rungs +7 more strikes not shown
Yen steadies on intervention talk as Polymarket sees 67.5% Fed hold
Fed September 2026 Decision: "No Change" Holds Lead at 67.5% as Yen Intervention Risk Cools Hike Bets Polymarket pricing on the Federal Reserve's "Fed Decision in September?" contract leaned toward no change after a report said the Japanese yen steadied as intervention risks rose and market expectations for a Fed hike eased. The leading "No change" outcome last traded at 67.5%, down slightly from 68.0%. Key Takeaways * Polymarket implies a 67.5% chance the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged after its September 2026 meeting. * A softer tone in rate-hike expectations alongside FX-market focus on yen intervention risk coincided with a small dip in "No change" pricing. * The contract resolves on 2026-09-16, with "No change" up 2.5 percentage points over the past 24 hours. The Japanese yen steadied after traders weighed rising risks of official intervention in currency markets. The report said expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike eased, shifting attention away from a more aggressive U.S. policy path. The foreign-exchange move came as markets assessed relative interest-rate outlooks and potential policy responses. The combination of intervention chatter and softer Fed hike expectations shaped near-term positioning in major currency pairs. Polymarket Odds & Volume: $1.316M Traded as 25 bps Hike Sits at 24.5% and Cut Scenarios Stay Below 4% On Polymarket, the ladder shows "No change" as the dominant outcome at 67.5% Yes versus 32.5% No on $1.316 million in volume. A 25 bps increase is priced at 24.5% Yes and 75.5% No, while a 25 bps decrease sits at 3.9% Yes and 96.1% No. The tails remain lightly priced, with 50+ bps decrease at 2.35% Yes / 97.65% No and 50+ bps increase at 0.95% Yes / 99.05% No, signaling traders are concentrated in a hold-or-hike base case rather than large moves. Watch whether the probability spread between "No change" (67.5%) and "25 bps increase" (24.5%) tightens as liquidity and volume build into the 2026-09-16 resolution date. Beyond the Fed: Other High-Volume Macro and FX Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching Beyond the September call, Polymarket traders are also clustering in adjacent macro and political gauges that can swing rate and dollar narratives. "Fed Decision in July?" shows 90.5% for "No change" on $35,024,821 in volume, while "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?" prices "0 (0 bps)" at 77.55% with $40,376,343 traded. In longer-horizon policy bets, "Fed rate hike in 2026?" has "No" at 53.5% on $3,402,573, and the 2026 power balance is in play too with "Which party will win the Senate in 2026?" favoring the Republican Party at 56.5% on $3,075,255. Odds Trend By the Numbers * Platform: Polymarket * Market: Fed Decision in September? * Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement. * Resolution window: Sep 16, 2026 (UTC) * Status: Active (open for trading) * Volume: ~$1,315,970 Top strike rungs +1 more strikes not shown
