News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
Jim Cramer has bold new take on Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO
There is always one IPO that defines a generation of investors. For people who started buying stocks in the 1990s, it was Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN). For millennials, it was Facebook and Tesla (TSLA). Each one arrived with the same problem, a valuation that looked impossible right up until it didn't. Elon Musk's SpaceX, which has spent nearly a decade as the most-anticipated private company in the world, is about to test the next generation of buyers. SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus on May 20 and is targeting a June 12 debut on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, with a reported valuation range of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, according to Investing.com. That would make it the largest initial public offering in history by a wide margin, eclipsing Saudi Aramco's 2019 listing. Even Jim Cramer is not sure the math gets there. The longtime CNBC host gave a blunt assessment of where the price sits right now, and three reasons it might not matter. Photo by Michael M. Santiago on Getty Images What Cramer told Mad Money viewers about SpaceX Cramer addressed the SpaceX deal during the May 26 episode of CNBC's "Mad Money," and his opening line set the tone for the entire segment. "Purely from the numbers, it's very difficult to justify giving SpaceX a $2 trillion valuation," Cramer said, according to CNBC. More Wall Street: He had reason to be cautious. The numbers themselves are extraordinary in both directions. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, up 33% year over year, but losses ballooned from a profit of $791 million in 2024 to a net loss of $4.94 billion last year, per the company's IPO prospectus. The bulk of that bleeding came from one place. Out of nearly $21 billion in capital spending last year, $12.7 billion went to building data centers for the xAI division Musk merged into SpaceX in February. When I ran the implied valuation against trailing revenue, the math came out to roughly 110 times sales, higher than Tesla's multiple at its 2010 IPO, per Investing.com. That is the number Cramer kept circling back to. In my view, it is also the number that has every Wall Street strategist trying to figure out whether SPCX is the next Nvidia (NVDA) or the next WeWork. Three catalysts that could rewrite the SpaceX bull case The Mad Money host did not stop at the caution. He laid out three near-term events that, in his view, could make the price tag look reasonable in hindsight. The first is Starship, the company's next-generation reusable rocket. SpaceX completed its 12th Starship test on May 22, and the prospectus says the system is expected to begin payload delivery in the second half of 2026, according to CNBC. "If SpaceX can really make that deadline, then it'll be a major boon for their slowing space division," Cramer said. The second is a new compute partnership with AI startup Anthropic. Per CNBC's reporting, Anthropic will pay SpaceX roughly $1.25 billion per month through 2029 to lease computing capacity from the company's Memphis data centers. Last year, the SpaceX AI division generated just $3.2 billion in revenue, but the Anthropic agreement alone could add roughly $15 billion per year almost immediately, Cramer said on CNBC. The third is the Cursor deal, which gives SpaceX the right to acquire the AI coding startup for $60 billion later this year or pay $10 billion for an ongoing partnership using its Colossus supercomputer, as reported by TechCrunch. Here is how Cramer's three catalysts stack up in dollar impact: * Starship payload delivery: expected to begin in the second half of 2026, per the SpaceX prospectus. * Anthropic compute deal: roughly $15 billion in incremental annual revenue, according to CNBC. * Cursor partnership: $10 billion payment floor with a $60 billion acquisition option, per TechCrunch. The reservation Cramer cannot get past Three catalysts are not the same as three guarantees, and Cramer was careful to underline why he still cannot fully sign off on the deal. The structural issue is the supply side of the market itself. The SpaceX IPO is not landing in isolation. OpenAI and Anthropic are both expected to follow with their own listings carrying multi-hundred-billion-dollar price tags, per The Motley Fool, and that creates a math problem for everyone already long tech. When several mega offerings hit the public market in the same window, eager investors have to sell existing holdings to participate. That selling pressure tends to weigh on the broader rally, not lift it. The recent Cerebras Systems debut is the warning shot. The AI chip company surged nearly 70% on its first day of trading, pulling demand away from comparable growth names, according to The Motley Fool. There is also the lock-up problem. Standard agreements prevent insiders from selling for 90 to 180 days after the IPO, which means a wave of insider supply hits the market right around Thanksgiving, exactly the moment retail enthusiasm tends to peak. That is the gap between Cramer's three catalysts and his one big reservation. The catalysts are about SpaceX's business. The reservation is about what the IPO does to every other stock in the reader's portfolio. What the SpaceX IPO means for your portfolio For most readers, the practical question is not whether to buy SpaceX at the open. It is what the deal does to the index funds and tech stocks they already own. If SpaceX prices at the high end of its range, it joins Apple (AAPL), Microsoft, and Nvidia as the only U.S. companies trading above $2 trillion, per BitMEX. Within weeks, Nasdaq fast-entry rules could push the stock into major benchmarks, which means every passive S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 fund holder buys a piece of SpaceX whether they want one or not. There is also the Musk concentration question. The prospectus confirmed the SpaceX CEO will control 85.1% of the voting power after the listing, with an incentive package tied to establishing a one-million-person Mars colony, according to TradingKey. My analysis of the post-IPO ownership math says retail buyers are essentially renting a stake in Musk's long-term ambitions, while institutional investors get the steadier cash flow from Starlink and government launch contracts. That is not a deal-breaker. It is a setup worth pricing into the position. That is the trade Cramer is sizing up. Three catalysts that could make the price look cheap by Christmas, or one reservation that could make June 12 look like the top. Either way, the answer arrives in less than three weeks. And every other megacap on the screen has to make room for it. The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc. This story was originally published May 28, 2026 at 1:03 AM.
Polymarket clarifies KYC applies only to new beta product, not its core platform
The prediction market giant's VP of engineering pushed back on reports that mandatory identity checks were coming to polymarket.com. Polymarket is not adding identity verification to its main platform. That was the message from Josh Stevens, the company's vice president of engineering, after a report suggested the prediction market was considering broader Know Your Customer requirements. Stevens posted on X that the KYC requirement applies exclusively to a new beta product being tested by a select group of users. Once that product exits its testing phase, the identity checks go away entirely. What actually happened The confusion started after a report from The Information suggested Polymarket had been weighing compliance-driven user verification. Stevens stepped in to set the record straight. "No KYC is being added to any part of existing polymarket.com with this launch." The distinction matters. Polymarket is launching a separate, new product that requires early testers to verify their identity during its beta period. That's it. The core prediction market, the one pulling in billions in monthly volume, remains untouched. Polymarket's scale makes this a big deal This clarification carries weight because of just how large Polymarket has become. Monthly trading volumes on the platform exceeded $10 billion in early 2026. Single-day volume records have surpassed $400 million. For Q1 2026 alone, total trading volume reached $26.2 billion. Polymarket operates as the world's largest prediction market, allowing users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events. It uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle for decentralized market resolution, where UMA token holders vote on outcomes. Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated competitor, embraced identity verification as part of its compliance-first approach. Polymarket took the opposite path, leaning into crypto-native permissionless access. Recent challenges and resilience Around May 21-22, 2026, a separate incident involving a legacy private key affected approximately $573,000 in funds. About $164,000 was recovered. Importantly, user funds on the main platform were not impacted. The team has also been upgrading its infrastructure to handle the surge in user demand. Scaling from a niche crypto product to a platform processing $26.2 billion in a single quarter requires serious backend work. What this means for traders and investors The immediate takeaway is straightforward: if you're trading on Polymarket today, nothing changes. Your existing experience remains the same. No identity checks, no document uploads, no compliance hoops. For UMA token holders specifically, Polymarket's continued growth at this scale means sustained demand for the oracle infrastructure that powers market resolution. Platform volume exceeding $10 billion monthly translates directly into resolution activity that flows through UMA's system. Traders should keep an eye on two things going forward: what the new beta product actually does once it's publicly available, and whether regulatory bodies in key jurisdictions respond to Polymarket's explicit commitment to avoiding KYC on its core platform. At $26.2 billion in quarterly volume, the platform is no longer flying under anyone's radar.
Spain Blocks Polymarket and Kalshi Websites
Spain's Consumer Rights Ministry has opened sanction proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi and ordered internet providers to block access to both prediction market platforms. The precautionary block was published in the Official State Gazette on May 26. It is expected to remain in place for three to four months while authorities review whether the platforms operated without the gambling licenses required under Spanish law. DGOJ Says Platforms Lacked Gambling Licenses The action was taken through Spain's gambling regulator, the Directorate General for Gambling Regulation, known as the DGOJ. Authorities said Polymarket and Kalshi let users stake money on uncertain future outcomes. Spain's position is that those products fall within the country's gambling regime when offered locally without the necessary administrative authorization. That puts the platforms in the same regulatory category as unlicensed betting operators, rather than financial venues or forecasting services. Three-Month Website Block Stays During Review Spanish officials said the websites will stay blocked during the investigation because unauthorized operators may lack safeguards required under national gambling rules. Those safeguards include identity verification, protections for minors and controls for self-excluded users. The ministry also said direct notification attempts to the operators at known foreign addresses had failed. That led authorities to publish the matter through the state gazette before enforcing the block. The current order does not decide the final outcome of the proceedings. It restricts access while the regulator reviews whether Polymarket and Kalshi breached Spanish gambling rules. Spain Treats Event Contracts as Online Betting The case adds Spain to the widening regulatory fight over prediction markets. Some platforms argue that event contracts are information markets or financial products. Spain is treating Polymarket and Kalshi as unlicensed gambling operators because users stake money on uncertain outcomes. That approach mirrors action in other jurisdictions where national authorities have relied on betting laws to restrict event-contract platforms. For Polymarket and Kalshi, the Spanish block is another sign that international expansion remains vulnerable to local gambling rules. Even as U.S. regulators and courts debate whether event contracts belong under derivatives oversight, countries such as Spain are moving through gambling enforcement channels.
Doubleheader rocket launch in Florida. What time is SpaceX, ULA liftoff?
Florida is well-known for its rocket launches -- but a rare doubleheader is on the schedule. SpaceX plans to send a Falcon 9 rocket into space from Cape Canaveral, delivering more Starlink internet satellites to orbit, on Friday, May 29. Then about 12 hours later, a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket is set to lift off from the same city. Though rockets here launch from NASA's Kennedy Space Center or Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, people on the Fun Coast can sometimes see this phenomenon. Weather permitting and depending on cloud cover and trajectory, a rocket launch from Florida's Space Coast could be visible as far north as Jacksonville Beach and as far south as West Palm Beach. When there's a launch window in the middle of the night or very early morning, there's an opportunity for unique photos -- the rocket lights up the dark sky, and the contrail after makes for a great photo. Below is more information on the next rocket launch from Florida and suggestions on where to watch it. ► Is there a launch today? NASA, SpaceX, Blue Origin rocket launch schedule in Florida For questions or comments, email USA TODAY Network Space Reporters Rick Neale at [email protected], Brooke Edwards at [email protected] or Eric Lagatta at [email protected]. For more space news from the USA TODAY Network, visit floridatoday.com/space. Friday, May 29, 2026: SpaceX Starlink 10-53 * Mission: A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch 29 Starlink broadband satellites into low-Earth orbit. * Launch window: 7:52 a.m. to 11:52 a.m. ET Friday, May 29, 2026 * Launch trajectory: Northeast * Launch location: Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Cape Canaveral, Florida * Sonic booms for the Space Coast of Florida: No * Live coverage starts 90 minutes before liftoff at floridatoday.com/space: You can watch live rocket launch coverage from USA TODAY Network's Space Team, which consists of FLORIDA TODAY space reporters Rick Neale and Brooke Edwards and visuals journalists Craig Bailey, Malcolm Denemark and Tim Shortt. Our Space Team will provide up-to-the-minute updates in a mobile-friendly live blog, complete with a countdown clock, at floridatoday.com/space, starting 90 minutes before liftoff. You can download the free FLORIDA TODAY app, which is available in the App Store or Google Play, or type floridatoday.com/space into your browser. Friday, May 29, 2026: ULA Amazon Leo 7 * Mission: A United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket will lift a payload of 29 Amazon Leo broadband satellites into low-Earth orbit. * Launch window: 7:33 p.m. to 8:02 p.m. ET Friday, May 29, 2026 * Trajectory: TBA. * Location: Launch Complex 41 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida. * Live FLORIDA TODAY Space Team coverage: Starts 90 minutes before liftoff at floridatoday.com/space. Where can I watch a rocket launch in Florida? A rocket launch with a northeast trajectory can be visible as far north as Jacksonville Beach, Florida, which is about 160 miles north of Cape Canaveral (about a two-hour and 30-minute car ride, depending on which route you take). Rocket launches with a southeast trajectory can be seen as far south as West Palm Beach, Florida, which is about 150 miles south of Cape Canaveral (about a two-hour-and-20-minute car ride). Rocket launches are most visible from the Space Coast, where they launch from, and are often visible from the Treasure Coast and Volusia County as well. Where to watch a SpaceX rocket launch near Daytona Beach, Florida In Volusia County, immediately north of Brevard County -- home to Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station -- you can get a great view of a SpaceX, NASA or United Launch Alliance rocket launch. The best views of a rocket launch from here are along the beach. Look due south. Recommended spots: * South New Smyrna Beach (Canaveral National Seashore) * Mary McLeod Bethune Beach Park, 6656 S. Atlantic Ave., New Smyrna Beach. Bethune Beach is 3.5 miles south of New Smyrna Beach and one mile north of the Apollo Beach entrance to Canaveral National Seashore Park. * Apollo Beach at Canaveral National Seashore (south of New Smyrna Beach). Canaveral National Seashore runs along Florida's East Coast in Volusia County and Brevard County. To access Apollo Beach, take Interstate 95 to exit 249, then travel east until it turns into State Road A1A. Follow SR A1A south to the park entrance. * Oak Hill riverfront is the southernmost city in South Volusia County. * Sunrise Park, 275 River Road, Oak Hill * Goodrich's Seafood and Oyster House back deck, 253 River Road, Oak Hill * Seminole Rest national historic site, 211 River Road, Oak Hill * Riverbreeze Park, 250 H.H. Burch Road, Oak Hill * Mary Dewees Park, 178 N. Gaines St., Oak Hill * Nancy Cummings Park, 232 Cummings St., Oak Hill * Jimmie Vann Sunrise Park, 275 River Road, Oak Hill * A.C. Delbert Dewees Municipal Pier, 243 River Road, Oak Hill * Bird Observation Pier on River Road across from A.C. Delbert Municipal Pier (see above) * Rose Bay in Port Orange, Florida * Skylake in Port Orange, Florida * Beaches along New Smyrna Beach, Florida * New Smyrna Beach Inlet, New Smyrna Beach lifeguard station * Halifax Harbor Marina in Daytona Beach, Florida * Ormond-by-the-Sea in Ormond Beach, Florida * George R. Kennedy Memorial Park in Edgewater, Florida Watch some rocket launches with NASA+ on Prime Video Watch NASA+ content with Amazon Prime Video NASA content, including some rocket launches, is available to watch through NASA+ on desktop, both from its official site and YouTube. The platform is also available to download as a mobile app on smartphones. All NASA+ content is also available to those who have Prime Video downloaded on any of their devices - whether it be a smartphone or smart TV. The content, which does not require a Prime subscription to view, is one of Prime Video's FAST channels (free ad-supported television). Viewers can find it under Prime's Live TV section at the top of the screen when they open the app. Lianna Norman and Jennifer Sangalang are trending reporters for the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida, covering rocket launches, Florida wildlife, breaking news and more. You can get all of Florida's best content directly in your inbox each weekday by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY, at floridatoday.com/newsletters.
Google employee accused of making over $1.2M on Polymarket through insider trading
(CBS) -- A software engineer at Google is facing federal charges after allegedly betting on confidential company information on Polymarket, netting more than $1.2 million in profits, the second insider trading prosecution against a user of the popular prediction market service in recent months. In court papers released by the Justice Department, Michele Spagnuolo was accused of using an internal company tool late last year to look up data on Google's top-trending searches of 2025. He then allegedly placed millions in bets on Polymarket on whether or not various celebrities would rank among the most searched people on Google that year, weeks before the company released that information publicly in its annual Year in Search report. The most widely searched person of 2025 ended up being D4vd, a singer who drew nationwide attention last year after a 15-year-old's dismembered body was found in the trunk of a car registered to him. Using the Polymarket username "AlphaRaccoon," Spagnuolo was accused of correctly betting hundreds of dollars that D4vd would show up in the most widely searched people, at a time when the market assessed the odds of D4vd appearing as fairly slim. Days after the Year in Search data was publicly announced, Spagnuolo's Polymarket account allegedly transferred millions of dollars in cryptocurrency to a crypto wallet. Spagnuolo was charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also sued him in civil court on similar grounds. The charges against Spagnuolo, an Italian citizen who lives in Switzerland, were unsealed on Wednesday. He was arrested in New York on Wednesday and appeared before a magistrate judge who released him on $2.25 million bond, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York confirmed to CBS News. CBS News has reached out to Spagnuolo and his attorney for comment. A Google spokesperson said Spagnuolo has been placed on leave, and the tech giant is working with law enforcement. "The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies," the spokesperson said. Polymarket said on X that it flagged the trader. A spokesperson said the company worked closely with federal authorities, calling Polymarket "the only prediction platform to date whose cooperation has led to insider trading charges in the United States." The charges against Spagnuolo came one month after a U.S. special forces soldier was arrested for allegedly winning over $400,000 by betting on the raid to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro before news of the raid was made public. The soldier pleaded not guilty. The cases have highlighted concerns about the potential for insider trading on prediction markets, which have surged in popularity in recent years. Earlier this year, a data analyst told "60 Minutes" he has spotted other cases of Polymarket accounts raking in millions by correctly betting on U.S. military operations, sometimes achieving an unbelievably high win rate. Polymarket has said insider trading is prohibited on its platform, and it polices misconduct and refers illegal acts to federal authorities. "Blockchain trading is transparent, traceable, and bad actors leave footprints," the company spokesperson said. "We are committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets as well as enforcing our rules and working with our regulators and law enforcement."
SpaceX's index fund debut will look nothing like what most investors expect, says Jacob Friedman
Float mechanics, competing methodologies, and a flurry of rule rewrites mean passive investors face wildly unequal SpaceX exposure. When SpaceX goes public this summer, the passive investors who think they understand what they own may be in for a surprise. The company is targeting a valuation of $1.75 to $2 trillion and plans to raise $50 to $75 billion, but what lands in index funds will be shaped less by those headline numbers than by float mechanics and methodology differences that most investors have never thought about, according to a new analysis. Jacob Friedman, lead investments manager at Focused Wealth Management and author of a new index investor guide on the SpaceX IPO, says the core problem is that SpaceX is expected to float only 3% to 4% of its shares, compared to 99.97% for Microsoft, 95.8% for Nvidia, and 90.5% for Amazon. As most major indices weight by float-adjusted market cap, the weight investors actually receive will be a fraction of what the company's headline valuation would suggest. "The headline number is misleading," Friedman told InvestmentNews. "SpaceX could come public at a $1.75 to $2 trillion valuation, which sounds like it should produce meaningful exposure across the major index funds. However, the actual exposure most clients will pick up is much smaller than they expect. The headline says SpaceX is huge, but the math says exposure will be modest." At the S&P 500's year-end 2025 total market cap of roughly $61 trillion, SpaceX would carry a weight of approximately 0.08% to 0.12% under reported deal terms -- despite a market cap that would otherwise place it in the index's top ten. Tesla, at a $1.4 trillion market cap, is roughly 2.3% of the S&P 500, more than seventeen times SpaceX's expected weight, because Tesla floats roughly 80% of its shares. SpaceX would have previously failed CRSP's eligibility screen, which required a public float of at least 12.5%, but on April 27 CRSP introduced an alternative liquidity test based on absolute float-adjusted market cap. SpaceX clears that screen by a wide margin. The rule is days old, has never been applied to an actual IPO, and CRSP retains discretionary authority to defer inclusion even when methodology would technically permit it. The Russell 1000 picture shifted materially on Wednesday. FTSE Russell announced it has adopted a fast-entry mechanism under which IPOs exceeding the Russell Top 500 market cap breakpoint are eligible five trading days after listing. IPOs below the 5% public float or voting shares minimum qualify under a new carve-out, provided their lockup arrangements will produce 5% public float and voting shares within 12 months of inclusion. SpaceX's S-1, filed May 20, appears designed to satisfy that condition, laying out a staggered lockup beginning after the first quarterly earnings report, with tranches at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days, a further 28% release after Q3 earnings, and full release at 180 days. Musk faces a 366-day restriction. Russell 1000 inclusion now moves from the projected September 2026 quarterly review to roughly five trading days post-IPO. The Nasdaq 100 adds SpaceX after 15 trading days under its Fast Entry rule, effective May 1. That leaves the S&P 500 as the sole major holdout. SpaceX will enter almost every major US equity index within the first three weeks of trading. The S&P 500 consultation closes May 28, with implementation proposed for June 8 if approved, but even under the accelerated proposal a late-June IPO wouldn't make SpaceX eligible until around mid-December 2026. VOO, SPY, and IVV investors would see approximately $80 to $120 per $100,000 -- similar to VTI, but months later. "SpaceX's S-1 lays out a staggered lockup release schedule rather than a single 180-day cliff, with portions of insider shares becoming eligible for sale at various points tied to earnings releases, time-based milestones, and stock price performance," Friedman said. "Depending on how aggressively insiders sell into the early-release windows, SpaceX's float could expand meaningfully before inclusion, which would push its weight higher. Regardless, the basic point holds. The size of the headline market cap doesn't translate to a large weight when the float is tiny." What makes QQQ and QQQM the most consequential funds for SpaceX exposure isn't timing but weighting methodology. The Nasdaq 100 recently eliminated its 10% float minimum and replaced it with a rule capping effective shares outstanding at the lesser of total shares or three times the free float. "The difference comes almost entirely from a Nasdaq 100 methodology change -- the 3x cap rule -- which Nasdaq modified earlier this year specifically in anticipation of SpaceX," Friedman said. "Under the prior rules, a security floating only 3 to 4% of its shares wouldn't have qualified for inclusion at all. The new methodology lets SpaceX in but constrains its weight relative to what the old framework would have produced for an otherwise-qualifying low-float security. Whether that's fair is a values question, but methodologically the cap is defensible since it's still a constraint relative to pure full-market-cap weighting. The result is that two investors holding what they think are similar growth-tilted index funds end up with very different SpaceX exposure." Under the conservative deal scenario, the Nasdaq 100 produces a modified SpaceX market cap of roughly $150 billion; at the upper end, approximately $225 billion. Against the index's total market cap of around $32 trillion, that translates to $470 to $700 of SpaceX exposure per $100,000 in QQQ -- roughly six times the $70 to $110 a comparable VTI position would see. Growth-style funds add a further layer of divergence. VUG picks up SpaceX within roughly five trading days. IWF and VONG, which follow Russell 1000 Growth, are tied to the December 2026 style review. VOOG, IVW, and SPYG follow S&P 500 Growth, which trails its parent. Two growth funds in the same portfolio could end up a year apart in when they see SpaceX. Friedman sees the simultaneity of the changes as difficult to explain away. "Reuters reported in February that SpaceX advisers were in discussions with index providers about accelerated inclusion," he said. "By March, multiple sources reported that early Nasdaq 100 inclusion was a condition of SpaceX choosing Nasdaq as its listing venue. Four major providers all simultaneously adjusting eligibility criteria for low-float megacap IPOs is hard to ignore. Most equity flows are now passive, which means a handful of index providers are making decisions that move enormous amounts of capital, and right now those decisions are being shaped by the issuers they're supposed to be evaluating." "A diversified passive portfolio will pick up SpaceX automatically through index funds in the months following the IPO, though the weights will be modest," he said. "That's actually the answer most clients are looking for, even if they don't realize it. They typically aren't asking 'how do I get a 5% SpaceX position?' They're asking, 'am I missing something important by not acting?' For a typical buy-and-hold client, the answer is no. Sometimes the most valuable thing an advisor can do is help a client see why no action is the right action." The more important conversation, Friedman argues, is what the rule changes signal for passive portfolios going forward. "The rule changes at CRSP, Nasdaq, Russell, and S&P were built around low-float megacap IPOs, and any issuer fitting that profile now has a faster path to index inclusion than it would have had a year ago," he said. "If OpenAI or Anthropic come public at similar valuations with even a 15 to 20% float, the same framework produces much larger weights and much bigger immediate passive demand. SpaceX is the floor of what these inclusions can look like in terms of weight, not the ceiling. Index methodology has become something advisors need to track. With most equity flows now passive, the methodology decisions being made under competitive pressure matter for how every client's portfolio is constructed." For now, the right move for most passive investors remains what it usually is: hold the portfolio, understand what you own, and let the index do its work. The SpaceX numbers will be small. The precedent being set may not be.
STARTRADER Launches SPCXUSD, Offering Exposure to SpaceX Ahead of Expected IPO By FinanceWire
FinanceWire - Dubai, UAE, May 28th, 2026, FinanceWire The new instrument brings 24/7 trading access to one of the most anticipated listings in market history. STARTRADER has added SPCXUSD (Space Exploration Technologies) to its product lineup, giving traders direct exposure to SpaceX, widely regarded as the leading force in aerospace and space infrastructure. The instrument will be available on MT5 from 28 May 2026, with STARTRADER App trading going live on 1 June 2026. SpaceX has drawn significant market attention as speculation around a potential IPO continues to build. Current projections place the company's valuation between USD 1.75 trillion and USD 2 trillion, which would make it one of the most valuable private-to-public listings transitions ever recorded. The successful Starship V3 test flight on 22 May has only added to the momentum, reinforcing confidence in the company's long-term role in next-generation connectivity and the broader space economy. For traders, the timing matters. SPCXUSD offers a way to build exposure to the space infrastructure theme before a formal listing. Instrument Details * Symbol: SPCXUSD * Description: Space Exploration Technologies * Leverage: 20x * Trading Hours: Monday to Sunday, 00:00-24:00 STARTRADER is a global multi-asset broker empowering retail and institutional partners to access global markets through a range of platforms, including MetaTrader, STAR-APP, and STAR-COPY. Regulated across five jurisdictions (CMA, ASIC, FSCA, FSA, and FSC), STARTRADER combines strong governance with a client-first approach, serving both retail clients and partners with a commitment to transparency, reliability, and long-term growth.
Earnings Flash (PNG.V) Kraken Robotics Reports Q1 Revenue C$21.7M, Up 35%; Covelya Buy "Remains On Track" To Close Near End of Q2 2026
Kraken Robotics Inc. is engaged in transforming subsea intelligence through three-dimensional (3D) imaging sensors, power solutions, and robotic systems. It offers derisking offshore energy installations through high resolution subsea geophysical, sonar, and LiDAR surveys. Its synthetic aperture sonar (SAS) is a technology evolution, integrating the capability to perform imaging and bathymetric mapping simultaneously. Its KATFISH actively stabilized SAS towfish system delivers ultra-high-resolution data of up to 2 cm x 2 cm. Its SeaPower is a subsea lithium-ion battery featuring a proprietary polymer matrix for pressure-tolerant encapsulation and an integrated battery management system (BMS). Its LiDAR solutions deliver millimeter-resolution metrologies, enabling informed decision-making on underwater assets and infrastructure. Its sub-bottom imager delivers 3D data, providing a clear understanding of subsea stratigraphy, undersea infrastructure, and hazards.
SpaceX Starship Grounded After Flight 12 Booster Failure: FAA Investigation Threatens IPO Timeline
Raptor 3 engine failures on Booster 19 triggered the FAA probe, putting Flight 13 scope in doubt as SpaceX's Nasdaq IPO approaches. SpaceX's newest and most powerful rocket is grounded -- five days after its debut -- after the Federal Aviation Administration formally declared the May 22 Starship Flight 12 launch a mishap and ordered a full investigation before Flight 13 can proceed. The booster's Raptor 3 engines failed to reignite properly after stage separation, sending Super Heavy Booster 19 to a hard splashdown in the Gulf of America instead of a controlled descent, and any investor or observer with a stake in SpaceX's anticipated Nasdaq IPO -- expected to price around June 11 -- now has a material regulatory variable to weigh. What Went Wrong on Starship Flight 12 Starship Flight 12, which lifted off from Starbase in South Texas on May 22 at approximately 7:35 p.m. ET, was the debut mission of the upgraded Version 3 configuration. Roughly one minute and 42 seconds into the ascent, one of the 33 Raptor V3 engines on Super Heavy Booster 19 shut down unexpectedly. The situation worsened around the two-minute mark. As SpaceX executed its planned staggered engine shutdown sequence ahead of stage separation -- bringing the booster from 32 engines down to five -- the vehicle failed to reignite the full complement of engines needed for its boostback burn. According to SpaceX's own post-mission report, Booster 19 "was unable to light all planned engines and performed a partial boostback burn that ended early," before a failed landing burn sent it to a hard splashdown. The anomaly also prompted the FAA to activate a debris response area, placing five aircraft in holding patterns and delaying six departures. Dan Huot, a member of SpaceX's communications team narrating the company's broadcast, acknowledged the problem in real time: "We are not seeing as many booster engines ignited as we expected for boostback, but we are seeing six good engines on ship." The Starship upper stage, Ship 39, performed better. Despite losing one of its three Raptor Vacuum engines, the vehicle successfully maneuvered to its intended splashdown zone in the Indian Ocean and deployed 22 payloads, including Starlink simulators and two modified satellites that photographed the craft in space. The FAA confirmed that the upper-stage engine issue was not a driving factor in the investigation. FAA Mishap Investigation: What It Requires On May 27, the FAA announced it had completed a thorough assessment of the Flight 12 operation and determined that Booster 19's off-nominal performance "resulted in a mishap" under federal commercial spaceflight regulations. "The FAA is requiring SpaceX to conduct a mishap investigation," the agency said. "The FAA will oversee the SpaceX-led investigation, be involved in every step of the process, and approve SpaceX's final report, including any corrective actions." The FAA confirmed there were no reports of public injury or damage to public property. Nonetheless, federal regulations under 14 CFR Part 450 mandate investigations when specific thresholds are crossed -- including hazardous debris landing outside defined areas, failure to complete a launch as planned, or malfunction of a safety-critical system. Return to flight requires the FAA to determine that no system, process, or procedure related to the mishap affects public safety. Raptor 3 Engine Problem Puts Flight 13 Scope in Doubt SpaceX has now faced mishap investigations following each of its first four Starship flights in the Version 1 era and three investigations after Version 2 Flights 7 through 9. Flight 12's investigation is the first for the Version 3 configuration. The investigation will focus specifically on the Raptor 3 engines, which made their program debut on Flight 12. With both the booster's boostback burn and the upper stage's vacuum-engine count affected on the same flight, SpaceX is unlikely to attempt an orbital trajectory on Flight 13. NASASpaceFlight reported a likely July-August 2026 window for the next flight, pending testing and mitigation of issues identified during Flight 12. SpaceX may also choose to forego a booster catch on Flight 13 and instead repeat the Gulf splashdown profile. Hardware for Flight 13 -- comprising Ship 40 and Booster 20 -- is already in preparation at Starbase. SpaceX did not respond to requests for comment. SpaceX IPO and Starship: What Investors Should Know The grounding arrives at an acutely sensitive moment. SpaceX filed its public S-1 prospectus with the SEC on May 20 -- two days before Flight 12 -- targeting a Nasdaq listing under the ticker SPCX, with an IPO roadshow expected around June 4 and shares potentially beginning to trade as early as June 12, 2026. In its S-1, SpaceX stated that its growth strategy "depends on our ability to increase our launch cadence and payload capacity, which is dependent on the successful development of Starship at scale." TechCrunch reported that the grounding "diminishes the chance that another [Starship flight] will occur before the company's anticipated IPO in mid-June." The Register noted that this marks the sixth time the FAA has grounded Starship in three years. How Does a Starlink V3 Satellite Delay Affect Starship's Roadmap? One of the most immediate downstream consequences involves Starlink Version 3 satellites, which SpaceX said in its S-1 it aims to begin deploying in the second half of 2026. Those satellites are designed to fly exclusively on Starship, meaning any prolonged grounding directly pressures that deployment schedule -- and with it, the Starlink revenue growth story that underpins much of SpaceX's IPO valuation narrative. Beyond Starlink, SpaceX holds NASA's Human Landing System contract for the Starship-derived lander planned for the Artemis IV lunar landing mission, currently targeted for 2028. Before that can happen, SpaceX must demonstrate orbital propellant transfer at scale -- a process requiring multiple Starship tanker launches -- and an uncrewed lunar landing. Each grounding sets back that demonstration sequence. SpaceX and the FAA have resolved previous investigations in a matter of weeks, though the complexity of diagnosing a newly introduced engine variant could extend that timeline. The FAA has not indicated a target date for completing its review. Frequently Asked Questions Why is SpaceX Starship grounded after Flight 12? The FAA declared the May 22 Starship Flight 12 launch a mishap after Super Heavy Booster 19's Raptor 3 engines failed to reignite properly during the boostback burn, sending it to a hard uncontrolled splashdown in the Gulf of America. Under federal commercial spaceflight regulations (14 CFR Part 450), SpaceX must complete an FAA-supervised investigation and obtain regulatory approval before Flight 13 can proceed. How long will the Starship FAA mishap investigation take? The FAA has not stated a timeline. Based on historical precedent, prior Starship investigations resolved in roughly two months, though the involvement of newly debuted Raptor 3 engines -- which have no prior flight history -- may require additional analysis. NASASpaceFlight estimates a July-August 2026 window for Flight 13, pending findings. What happened to the Starlink V3 satellite launch schedule? SpaceX stated in its May 2026 IPO prospectus that it aims to begin deploying Starlink Version 3 satellites in the second half of 2026. Those satellites are designed to fly exclusively on Starship, meaning the Flight 12 grounding directly threatens the H2 2026 deployment target until a successful return to flight is achieved. Will SpaceX fly Starship before its IPO? The IPO roadshow is expected around June 4, with shares potentially trading as early as June 12, 2026. Given that FAA mishap investigations typically take weeks to months, a Starship flight before the IPO date appears unlikely based on current timelines -- though SpaceX has not formally commented on the investigation's expected duration.
Google Employee Charged with Insider Trading on Polymarket
Spagnuolo allegedly used privileged Google data to make related Polymarket trades. The US Department of Justice announced Wednesday that they have charged a Google employee with three felony counts linked to insider trading. According to authorities, Michele Spagnuolo - an Italian citizen living in Switzerland - enjoyed access to confidential Google trends data as part of his role as a software engineer within the company. After initially opening a Polymarket account in May 2024, Spagnuolo - now 36 years of age - began making Google search-related trades on the exchange in October 2025 under the account name "AlphaRaccoon," says the DOJ. Those trades resulted in a profit exceeding $1.2 million by December 2025, according to the criminal complaint that was unsealed earlier this week. READ CRIMINAL COMPLAINT: USA v Michele Spagnuolo (unsealed May 27, 2026) The federal government claims that Spagnuolo, who was presented Wednesday before US Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn in the Southern District of New York, was aware that the internal information he had access to was confidential. The former Google software engineer "certified his understanding of various Google confidentiality and ethics policies," reads the DOJ statement. What is Spagnuolo formally charged with? The unsealed criminal complaint charges the Google software engineer with three felony counts: * COUNT ONE - Commodities Fraud * COUNT TWO - Wire Fraud * COUNT THREE - Money Laundering "Today's charges reinforce a decades-old message: corporate insiders cannot use confidential business information to turn a profit in our markets," stated U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton in the DOJ press release. "As alleged, Spagnuolo violated the duties he owed to his employer and used Google's confidential business information to make more than $1.2 million in trading profits on Polymarket. Insider trading compromises the integrity of our markets, and the American people want this greed-driven conduct investigated and prosecuted." Another high profile criminal case against a prediction market trader The charges against Spagnuolo were unsealed roughly one month after the feds arrested US Army Special Forces master sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke for allegedly using classified intel to illegally profit more than $409,000 on the Polymarket exchange. Van Dyke is accused of using a VPN to trade on Venezuela-based predictions in late 2025, while knowing that he was, and would be, directly participating in corresponding US military actions in the region. Van Dyke's arrest has been cited by numerous lawmakers and politicians since April. Pennsylvania State Representative Tarik Khan told a local news outlet recently that "we can't have rigged systems" while introducing a legislative proposal that would make insider trading on prediction markets illegal within the Keystone State. The Council on Foreign Relations also reacted to last month's arrest of a US Army soldier, driving home the point that "by the time a national security insider is caught trading, the damage is done." Due to the alleged amount of fraud and money laundering that took place, the newly unsealed criminal case against Spagnuolo is likely to attract attention from lawmakers on Capitol Hill. "The FBI remains dedicated to searching for fraudsters who betray their employer for personal financial gains," said FBI Assistant Director in Charge James C. Barnacle, Jr. on Wednesday.
Jim Cramer has bold new take on Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO
There is always one IPO that defines a generation of investors. For people who started buying stocks in the 1990s, it was Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN). For millennials, it was Facebook and Tesla (TSLA). Each one arrived with the same problem, a valuation that looked impossible right up until it didn't. Elon Musk's SpaceX, which has spent nearly a decade as the most-anticipated private company in the world, is about to test the next generation of buyers. SpaceX filed its IPO prospectus on May 20 and is targeting a June 12 debut on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, with a reported valuation range of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, according to Investing.com. That would make it the largest initial public offering in history by a wide margin, eclipsing Saudi Aramco's 2019 listing. Even Jim Cramer is not sure the math gets there. The longtime CNBC host gave a blunt assessment of where the price sits right now, and three reasons it might not matter. What Cramer told Mad Money viewers about SpaceX Cramer addressed the SpaceX deal during the May 26 episode of CNBC's "Mad Money," and his opening line set the tone for the entire segment. "Purely from the numbers, it's very difficult to justify giving SpaceX a $2 trillion valuation," Cramer said, according to CNBC. He had reason to be cautious. The numbers themselves are extraordinary in both directions. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, up 33% year over year, but losses ballooned from a profit of $791 million in 2024 to a net loss of $4.94 billion last year, per the company's IPO prospectus. The bulk of that bleeding came from one place. Out of nearly $21 billion in capital spending last year, $12.7 billion went to building data centers for the xAI division Musk merged into SpaceX in February. When I ran the implied valuation against trailing revenue, the math came out to roughly 110 times sales, higher than Tesla's multiple at its 2010 IPO, per Investing.com. That is the number Cramer kept circling back to. In my view, it is also the number that has every Wall Street strategist trying to figure out whether SPCX is the next Nvidia (NVDA) or the next WeWork. Three catalysts that could rewrite the SpaceX bull case The Mad Money host did not stop at the caution. He laid out three near-term events that, in his view, could make the price tag look reasonable in hindsight.
Google engineer charged with insider trading after profiting $1.2 million on Polymarket
A software engineer at Google is facing federal charges after allegedly betting on confidential company information on Polymarket, netting more than $1.2 million in profits, the second insider trading prosecution against a user of the popular prediction market service in recent months. In court papers released by the Justice Department, Michele Spagnuolo was accused of using an internal company tool late last year to look up data on Google's top-trending searches of 2025. He then allegedly placed millions in bets on Polymarket on whether or not various celebrities would rank among the most searched people on Google that year, weeks before the company released that information publicly in its annual Year in Search report. The most widely searched person of 2025 ended up being D4vd, a singer who drew nationwide attention last year after a 15-year-old's dismembered body was found in the trunk of a car registered to him. Using the Polymarket username "AlphaRaccoon," Spagnuolo was accused of correctly betting hundreds of dollars that D4vd would show up in the most widely searched people, at a time when the market assessed the odds of D4vd appearing as fairly slim. Days after the Year in Search data was publicly announced, Spagnuolo's Polymarket account allegedly transferred millions of dollars in cryptocurrency to a crypto wallet. Spagnuolo was charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also sued him in civil court on similar grounds. The charges against Spagnuolo, an Italian citizen who lives in Switzerland, were unsealed on Wednesday. He was arrested in New York on Wednesday and appeared before a magistrate judge who released him on $2.25 million bond, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York confirmed to WTX US News. WTX US News has reached out to Spagnuolo and his attorney for comment. A Google spokesperson said Spagnuolo has been placed on leave, and the tech giant is working with law enforcement. "The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies," the spokesperson said. Polymarket said on X that it flagged the trader. A spokesperson said the company worked closely with federal authorities, calling Polymarket "the only prediction platform to date whose cooperation has led to insider trading charges in the United States." The charges against Spagnuolo came one month after a U.S. special forces soldier was arrested for allegedly winning over $400,000 by betting on the raid to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro before news of the raid was made public. The soldier pleaded not guilty. The cases have highlighted concerns about the potential for insider trading on prediction markets, which have surged in popularity in recent years. Earlier this year, a data analyst told "60 Minutes" he has spotted other cases of Polymarket accounts raking in millions by correctly betting on U.S. military operations, sometimes achieving an unbelievably high win rate. Polymarket has said insider trading is prohibited on its platform, and it polices misconduct and refers illegal acts to federal authorities. "Blockchain trading is transparent, traceable, and bad actors leave footprints," the company spokesperson said. "We are committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets as well as enforcing our rules and working with our regulators and law enforcement."
Top 5 Polymarket Bets for June 2026: Edge Up to 12pp, EV Up to 50% - FinanceFeeds
The May 2026 sell-off has done the work of two FOMC meetings. Bitcoin is back below $80,000, the Fed has just printed its first 4-dissent vote since 1992, and Polymarket has cleared $10 billion in monthly volume in three of the last four months. Fresh volatility plus mature liquidity is the cleanest environment Polymarket has offered all year. The June 2026 playbook below identifies five prediction-market bets where the implied odds and the math no longer agree. Four sit on Polymarket; one is a cross-venue setup against Kalshi. Edges run from 7 to 12 percentage points and the highest-EV trade pays close to +50% per dollar staked. How the Bets Were Chosen Each market was passed through a five-step filter: (1) scan Polymarket and Kalshi for ≥$50K-volume markets resolving within 7 months; (2) classify the source of edge against a 12-strategy taxonomy (deep research, cross-venue arb, whale flow, resolution-rules edge, polling arb, headline reactions); (3) build an independent probability via Black-Scholes barrier-touch for crypto, CME FedWatch with dissent adjustment for macro, and base-rate analysis for IPO and regulator decisions; (4) gate on ≥4pp edge AND ≥25% annualised (carry-trade exception for 95%+ probability); (5) rank by edge × √liquidity × resolution clarity, take the top five, enforce strategy diversity. The June 2026 Setup: Why These Bets, Why Now The macro frame for June is one of the busiest in recent memory. Bitcoin closed the week of May 28, 2026 at roughly $75,000, about 32% below its 2026 high. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick cut his year-end BTC target to $100,000 in February and now warns of a possible $50,000 dip before year-end. JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou is constructive but explicitly attributes the bid to institutions, not retail. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 16-17 follows the April 29 decision in which Stephen Miran dissented for a cut while Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan dissented against the easing bias -- the first 4-dissent vote since October 1992. CME FedWatch puts a June hold at roughly 99% as of May 25, so the Fed market itself is too tight; the edge lives in the trades the Fed's posture creates. On the AI side, Anthropic's most recent Nasdaq Private Market mark is $568 per share, implying ~$900 billion fully diluted, with a $30 billion raise reportedly being priced at the same level. OpenAI raised at $852 billion in March 2026, and Reuters reports confidential S-1 work with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley targeting Q3 or Q4 2026 at $852 billion to $1 trillion. Polymarket itself crossed $10.57 billion in March and Q1 2026 was the platform's largest quarter on record at ~$14.9 billion. Our prior reporting on the Anthropic vs OpenAI race sets the AI-IPO baseline. Historical parallel: the last time the Fed printed a 4-dissent vote (October 1992), the next six months saw a ~13% rally in the S&P 500 and a sharp dollar-index drop. Today, that same dispersion is monetisable on chain. Information gain. The differentiator versus other "best Polymarket bets" lists is the explicit cross-venue arbitrage angle (Polymarket OpenAI IPO at 70¢ vs Kalshi's 92¢ file probability) and barrier-touch math applied at the right strike. The popular pick is BTC $150K at 7¢ -- essentially fair. The actual edge sits at $110K, where the market prices terminal expectations on a contract that resolves on touch. Bet #1 -- Bitcoin Touches $110K Before 2027 (Polymarket, YES at 20¢) Market: What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027 -- $110K leg. Resolution date: January 1, 2027. Resolution criteria (paraphrased to 30 words): resolves YES if any Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle prints a High at or above $110,000 between November 24, 2025 and December 31, 2026; settles via Binance pricing. Current price / 24h volume: 20¢ YES; event-level lifetime volume $38.5 million. This is the headline pick because the strategy is the cleanest on the board: a Type-A barrier-touch market priced by users who think in terminal-price terms when the contract actually resolves on touch. The literal text says "any candle" -- one minute through $110,000 and the market pays. The math. Spot ~$75,000 (Yahoo Finance, May 28, 2026). Strike $110,000 (47% above spot). Days to resolution: 218. Implied vol from Deribit DVOL ~47%. Then σ_t = 0.47 × √(218/365) = 0.363. d2 = ln(110/75)/0.363 = 1.055. P_touch = 2 × (1 - Φ(1.055)) ≈ 29.2%. Market 20%, estimate 29%. Edge: 9pp. EV: +45%. Annualised over 218 days: ~96%. Half-Kelly capped at 5%: about 4.4%. Disconfirmation triggers. BTC closes below $65,000 on the weekly (the floor breaks). Deribit DVOL spikes above 75 (option market prices a downside touch first). Polymarket bid-side depth on the $110K leg falls below $50,000 (exit liquidity gone). "We are positive in crypto markets for 2026 as we expect a further rise in the digital asset flow, but more led by institutional investors rather than retail investors or digital asset treasury companies." -- Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director, JPMorgan, May 2026. Bet #2 -- Strategy (MSTR) Sells Any Bitcoin in 2026 (Polymarket, YES at 86¢) Market: Will MicroStrategy sell any of its Bitcoin -- Dec 31, 2026 leg. Resolution date: December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET). Resolution criteria: resolves YES if Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) sells any of its Bitcoin holdings by the deadline; primary sources are company filings and on-chain data, with credible reporting as backup. Current price / volume: 86¢ YES; event volume roughly $32.8 million. This is a Type-J resolution-rules edge dressed up as momentum. The operative word is "any." A single 1 BTC sale to cover a corporate expense triggers YES. The catalyst. On May 5, 2026 on Strategy's Q1 earnings call, Michael Saylor said: "We will probably sell some bitcoin to pay a dividend just to inoculate the market and send the message that we did it." Saylor later walked it back as "a big nothing burger" -- but the de-pledge of the never-sell stance is on the record. Strategy holds 818,334 BTC at $75,537 average cost and issued STRC preferred shares at 11.5% dividend coupon. The dividend has to be paid. The math. P(any sale | CEO intent + 818K BTC stack + STRC dividend) ≈ 96%. Market 86%. Edge: 10pp. EV: +12%. Annualised: ~21%. Below the 25% gate but qualifies for the 95%+ carry-trade exception. Disconfirmation triggers. Strategy files an 8-K retracting the May 5 dividend-sale plan. STRC dividends are restructured to PIK or converted to equity. The October 2026 shareholder vote blocks any Bitcoin sales. Bet #3 -- OpenAI Completes IPO by Dec 31, 2026 (Polymarket YES at 70¢ vs Kalshi 92¢) Market: OpenAI IPO by -- Dec 31, 2026 leg. Resolution date: December 31, 2026. Resolution criteria: resolves YES if OpenAI completes an IPO by the listed date, confirmed by official company announcement and credible news sources; a public acquisition resolves NO. Current price / volume: 70¢ YES; event-level volume roughly $1.7 million across all legs. This is the cleanest cross-venue setup on the board. Polymarket has YES on "OpenAI completes IPO by Dec 31" at 70¢. Kalshi's adjacent "OpenAI files for IPO in 2026" trades at 92¢. The criteria differ -- file vs list -- but the gap is informative. The math (Type F base rate). Large-cap IPOs run 85-110 days from S-1 to listing. Reuters reports confidential S-1 work with Goldman and Morgan Stanley; Sam Altman has targeted September 2026 at a $60 billion raise on ~$1 trillion. CFO hired in May; Musk legal overhang resolved in March. If S-1 lands May-June, listing window is August-October with 8-16 weeks slack for a December close. P̂ for IPO by Dec 31: ~80% (85% on time, 50% if slips, blended 70/30). Edge. Polymarket 70%, estimate 80%. Edge: 10pp. EV: +14%. Annualised over 218 days: ~25%. Half-Kelly capped at 5%. See our prior reporting on OpenAI IPO preparation. Disconfirmation triggers. OpenAI publicly defers IPO past 2026. DOJ files antitrust action that pauses S-1 review. Microsoft-OpenAI restructuring disclosed in the S-1 adds multi-month delay. "We are totally aligned on buying as much compute as we can and working hard on it together every day." -- Sam Altman, CEO, OpenAI, on Microsoft alignment, Reuters via Fortune, May 2026. Bet #4 -- Anthropic Valuation Hits $1.5 Trillion by Dec 31, 2026 (Polymarket, YES at 77¢) Market: Will Anthropic's valuation hit by December 31 -- $1.5T leg. Resolution date: December 31, 2026. Resolution criteria: resolves YES if Anthropic's valuation reaches or exceeds $1.5 trillion between market creation and year-end, measured by Nasdaq Private Market valuations (or IPO/public market data if applicable). Current price / volume: 77¢ YES; event-level volume roughly $1.04 million since launch on May 19, 2026. Anthropic is the cleanest favourite-compounder on the list. NPM mark is $568.49 per share (~$900 billion FDV); the Financial Times reported a $30 billion raise being priced at $900 billion; secondary platforms have already shown $1 trillion-range prints. The math. Dario Amodei told CNBC that Q1 2026 80x annualised growth was "just crazy" and "too hard to handle," hoping for "more normal" expansion ahead. Even sharply decelerated, that supports $1.5T. The $1.0T threshold is already locked at 99¢, so the next NPM print mechanically pulls $1.5T higher. P̂: ~87% (range 85-90%). Edge. 10pp. EV: +13%. Annualised: ~23%. Half-Kelly capped at 5%. Disconfirmation triggers. A confirmed funding round prices below $900 billion. NPM marks drop two consecutive months. Major customer concentration disclosure compresses the premium. Correlation flag: Bet #3 (OpenAI IPO) and Bet #4 (Anthropic NPM) share the same private-AI regime. Treat the combined position as ~8% of bankroll, not 10%. Bet #5 (Contrarian) -- 2026 Midterms: Split Congress (R Senate / D House) on Polymarket YES at 33¢ Market: Balance of power 2026 midterms -- R Senate / D House leg. Resolution date: November 3, 2026. Resolution criteria: resolves YES if Republicans control the Senate and Democrats control the House on certified post-election results; resolution requires consensus between Associated Press, Fox News and NBC. Current price / volume: 33¢ YES; event-level total volume $7.28 million. This is the bet most readers will dismiss. Polymarket has Dem sweep at 47%, split outcome at 33%, Republican sweep at 19% and alternate split at 2.3%. The 47% Dem sweep is the consensus headline pick when an unpopular incumbent loses both chambers. The historical base rate says otherwise. In post-WWII midterms, the incumbent's party loses the House on average; the Senate is stickier because only one third of seats are up. The 2026 Senate map is exceptionally Republican-friendly: Democrats defend 13 seats including Michigan, Georgia, Arizona and a competitive Ohio race; Republicans defend mostly safe seats. Even in a clear wave year, flipping the +4 net Senate seats required while holding all vulnerable defences is a tall order. The House flip is higher-probability; the Senate hold is what the market mis-prices. The math (Type G). P̂ for split (R Senate, D House): ~45% (range 42-48%). Polymarket 33%. Edge: 12pp. EV: +36%. Annualised over 5.5 months: ~90%. Half-Kelly raw exceeds 5%; cap at the 5% ceiling. Disconfirmation triggers. Senate generic ballot moves more than +6pp toward Democrats by August. A Republican incumbent retires in a competitive seat (Iowa, North Carolina). Trump approval falls below 38% in three consecutive Gallup polls. "Markets about new things that I'm not familiar with -- if I'm not familiar with it, chances are almost everyone else is not familiar with it either." -- Domer (ImJustKen), #1 all-time Polymarket trader, via Onchaintimes. The midterm split outcome sits in the "more complicated than the casual headline" bucket -- the kind of asymmetric edge Domer has built a career on. Honourable Mentions Two markets were evaluated and almost made the list, included here so the filter is transparent. Fed June rate decision -- No change at 97.6¢ ($46 million volume). True probability ~99% (CME FedWatch plus dissent adjustment, since three of four April dissents were against the easing bias). Edge ~1.4pp, annualised ~28%. Skipped because absolute EV is so small that one 50bp surprise wipes a year of compounding. US recession by end-2026 -- YES at 23¢. NY Fed yield-curve model implies 30-35%, Goldman house probability ~25%. Blended P̂: 28-32%. Edge ~6pp. Catalyst is diffuse and the soft-landing vs technical-recession interpretation risks a UMA dispute. What Could Go Wrong Across the Book The five bets are not uncorrelated. Bets #1 (BTC touch), #2 (MSTR sale) and #4 (Anthropic NPM) all sit on the "risk-on AI/crypto regime continues" leg. A sustained risk-off -- BTC breaks $60K and a hawkish Fed surprise at the September FOMC -- pressures all three at once. Treat them as 40-50% correlated. Cap the Bet #3 + Bet #4 AI-IPO pair at 8%, not 10%. Resolution-criteria risk. Bet #2 is a Type-J edge because "any sale" is the lowest possible bar. UMA dispute exposure is low, but if Strategy creatively defines "sells" (transfer to a subsidiary, lending), expect a 2-3 week settlement delay. The Zelenskyy-suit precedent ($242 million disputed in July 2025) is the right scar to remember. Liquidity risk on Bet #5. The midterms split leg shows $1.4 million traded but order-book depth thins below 30¢. Size for hold-to-resolution, not mid-trade exit. Venue and information risk. Polymarket is US-geo-restricted following the 2022 CFTC settlement. Insider trading is a live issue -- on May 27, 2026 a Google engineer was charged with making $1.2 million on confidential information, and Polymarket has tightened its market integrity rules in response. Every Polymarket trade is also a crypto disposal for IRS purposes. How to Size and When to Exit The five bets add to ~23% of bankroll at full Half-Kelly: 4.4% on Bet #1, 5% each on Bets #2-4, and Bet #5 at the 5% ceiling because the EV is high but the catalyst is multi-month. Total portfolio cap should be 25-30% across all prediction-market positions. That leaves dry powder for the June FOMC (June 17), Strategy's Q2 earnings in early August, and the OpenAI S-1 reveal that -- if Reuters has the timing right -- lands in late June or July. Exit discipline matters more than entry. Bet #1 resolves three ways: touch, no touch, or a vol spike that re-rates YES to 35¢ mid-trade and lets you take profit early. The Bet #2 and Bet #4 carry trades reverse on observable catalysts -- an 8-K from Strategy, an NPM mark drop on Anthropic -- easy to monitor without a daily check. The next playbook refreshes after the June FOMC. FAQ What is the best Polymarket bet right now in June 2026? The headline pick is YES on Bitcoin touching $110,000 before end-2026 at 20¢. Black-Scholes barrier-touch math (spot $75K, vol ~47%, 218 days) puts true probability at ~29%, an edge of ~9pp and EV of +45% per dollar. The market is a Type-A touch contract being priced as if it were terminal -- the most common Polymarket crypto mispricing. Is Polymarket profitable for retail users? For most retail users, no. The April 2026 academic study of ~2.5 million Polymarket wallets found 84.1% net unprofitable. The top 0.1% capture roughly 67% of all profits; only ~840 wallets have cleared $100,000 lifetime. Edge is real but concentrated, and reaching profitability requires methodical research and discipline. How do you calculate edge on Polymarket? Edge_pp = (independent probability - market YES price) × 100. EV per $1 = independent probability / market price - 1. For crypto barrier-touch, P_touch ≈ 2 × (1 - Φ(d2)) where d2 = ln(K/S) / (σ × √t). For Fed meetings, blend CME FedWatch with a dissent adjustment. What is the difference between Polymarket and Kalshi? Polymarket is a decentralised, USDC-denominated venue operating internationally with US geo-restrictions following a 2022 CFTC settlement; UMA resolves disputes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange with direct retail access. Polymarket has higher global volume; Kalshi holds ~68% of US prediction-market share in mid-2026. Pricing divergence on the same event drives the Bet #3 cross-venue setup. Will Bitcoin hit $150K by the end of 2026? Polymarket's $150K leg sits at 7¢ (May 28, 2026), implying ~7%. Independent Black-Scholes barrier-touch math returns ~7% -- roughly fair value with no edge. The mispricing is at $110K (market 20¢, math ~29%). Take the lower-strike trade where the math actually disagrees with the price. What is the safest Polymarket trade structure? The favourite-compounder strategy -- YES on 95%+ probability outcomes with crisp resolution criteria -- pays most consistently; Sharky6999 ran a 99.5% win rate on it. The trade-off: paying $0.95 to win $1.00 means one wrong call wipes 20 winning calls. Resolution-text discipline is mandatory. Prediction-market regulation is evolving and varies by jurisdiction and by US state -- some venues are restricted, geoblocked, or subject to ongoing legal challenges. Verify the rules that apply to you before participating. Nothing here is investment, trading, or betting advice; it is market analysis only. Never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Google launches AI Threat Defense to take on Anthropic Mythos and OpenAI Daybreak
Amid growing concerns around powerful AI tools that could potentially hack any software or operating system, Google has introduced its own AI-powered cybersecurity tool. The new platform is called Google AI Threat Defense. Google's new tool arrives after Anthropic launched its cybersecurity-focused AI model Claude Mythos in April and OpenAI introduced the Daybreak platform, built on GPT-5.5, earlier in May 2026. While Claude Mythos has raised concerns among companies and governments around the world, including in India due to its capabilities to discover huge numbers of vulnerabilities overnight, Google describes its new tool as an AI-powered cybersecurity solution that continuously monitors and stops AI-driven threats before they can affect businesses. "AI Threat Defense helps organisations actively predict attack paths, prioritize the most significant threats, and deploy verified fixes faster than adversaries can exploit them," Francis deSouza, COO of Google Cloud and President of Security Products, wrote in a blog post. But while both Anthropic and OpenAI largely focused on raw model intelligence and large-scale code scanning, Google is taking a different approach. According to Google, one of the biggest problems with current AI cybersecurity systems is that they overwhelm security teams with thousands of AI-generated alerts. Anthropic Mythos and OpenAI Daybreak can rapidly discover huge numbers of vulnerabilities overnight. However, not every vulnerability is actually dangerous in the real world. Google AI Threat Defense is trying to solve that problem. The platform integrates code scanning with cloud-security platform Wiz and checks whether a vulnerability is actually reachable from the internet or exposed through live network configurations. If a high-severity flaw exists in the code but is completely isolated, the system lowers its priority. This allows developers and security teams to focus only on active threat that attackers could realistically exploit. "Unlike other model providers that simply hand security teams a massive, unprioritised list of AI-generated alerts, we deliver prioritised fixes to accelerate remediation and secure the Defender's Advantage," Francis deSouza wrote in the blog post. Google AI Threat Defense continuously performs deep-dive scans across millions of lines of corporate code. The system uses lighter and more cost-effective AI models for broad continuous monitoring, while Gemini frontier models are deployed for high-risk assets and complex exploitability analysis. Another major difference is how Google handles fixes. While OpenAI's system mainly proposes patches, Google says it uses autonomous AI agents under human supervision to actively rewrite legacy code into modern and memory-safe programming languages. The platform can also analyse dependencies and automatically generate tests to verify whether a fix actually works before deployment.
FAA Orders SpaceX Starship Flight 12 Mishap Probe
In a statement on Wednesday (local time), the FAA said it had determined that the flight test on Friday resulted in a mishap during the booster's return flight over the Gulf of Mexico following stage separation. The agency said it will oversee the process and approve SpaceX's final report and any corrective actions. According to the FAA, a mishap investigation is intended to enhance public safety, determine the root cause of the event, and identify corrective measures to prevent a recurrence, reports Xinhua news agency. The agency said that a return to flight for the Starship Super Heavy booster will depend on the FAA determining that no system, process, or procedure related to the mishap poses a threat to public safety. No injuries or damage to public property were reported following the incident, the FAA said. Starship lifted off from SpaceX's Starbase facility in the US state of Texas at 5:30 p.m. Central Time (2230 GMT) last Friday (May 22). All 33 Raptor 3 engines on the Super Heavy booster ignited successfully at liftoff. However, one engine shut down prematurely during ascent. Following a successful first-stage ascent, Starship's upper stage ignited its six Raptor engines during the hot-staging manoeuvre and continued toward space, according to SpaceX. After stage separation, the Super Heavy booster carried out a directional flip manoeuvre and attempted its boostback burn. However, not all planned engines ignited, resulting in only a partial boostback burn before the manoeuvre terminated prematurely. The booster later attempted to reignite its engines for the landing burn before making a hard splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico. The Starship upper stage successfully entered its planned coast phase despite the loss of one of its six engines. SpaceX said the vehicle demonstrated its engine-out capability and still achieved its intended trajectory. During the coast phase, Starship deployed 20 Starlink simulators and two modified Starlink satellites designed to capture imagery of the vehicle in flight. The two modified satellites transmitted images of Starship's thermal protection system back to mission controllers. All 22 payloads remained on the same suborbital trajectory as Starship and were expected to burn up during atmospheric reentry. About one hour after liftoff, Starship re-entered Earth's atmosphere and collected critical data on the performance of its heatshield and structural strength during reentry, according to SpaceX. In the final minutes of flight, Starship carried out a manoeuvre designed to test the structural limits of its rear flaps, along with a dynamic banking manoeuvre intended to simulate the trajectory of future missions returning to Starbase. Starship later splashed down in the Indian Ocean as planned. According to SpaceX, the vehicle successfully completed its landing flip manoeuvre and landing burn with two functioning Raptor engines before splashdown. The mission marked the first flight of the next-generation Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy booster, featuring upgraded Raptor engines and a newly designed launch pad at Starbase. According to SpaceX, the primary objective of the test flight was to evaluate for the first time the performance of the upgraded vehicle, its propulsion system and ground infrastructure in a real-flight environment. The launch attempt originally scheduled for May 21 was scrubbed due to a technical issue. SpaceX founder Elon Musk said a hydraulic pin holding the launch tower arm in place failed to retract as planned. Starship is slated to serve as the lunar landing system for NASA's Artemis program, which aims to return astronauts to the Moon and lay the groundwork for future human missions to Mars.
Google engineer charged with insider trading on Polymarket
By clicking submit, I authorize Arcamax and its affiliates to: (1) use, sell, and share my information for marketing purposes, including cross-context behavioral advertising, as described in our Privacy Policy , (2) add to information that I provide with other information like interests inferred from web page views, or data lawfully obtained from data brokers, such as past purchase or location data, or publicly available data, (3) contact me or enable others to contact me by email or other means with offers for different types of goods and services, and (4) retain my information while I am engaging with marketing messages that I receive and for a reasonable amount of time thereafter. I understand I can opt out at any time through an email that I receive, or by clicking here A Google software engineer was charged with insider trading on Polymarket, where he allegedly made more than $1 million betting on one of last year's most popular Internet searches. Michele Spagnuolo was charged in a complaint unsealed Wednesday in federal court in New York. Spagnuolo, 36, appeared before a federal magistrate and was released on a $2.25 million bond. Mike Ferrara, a lawyer for Spagnuolo, declined to comment on the charges. The case comes amid growing concern about insider trading on prediction markets. The charges against Spagnuolo come just a little more than a month after a U.S. Army Special Forces master sergeant was charged with using classified information about the operation to capture then-Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to make $400,000 betting on Polymarket. According to the complaint, Spagnuolo, an Italian citizen who joined Alphabet Inc.'s Google in 2014, had access to company data that tracked user searches when he bet that Google's most-searched person in 2025 would be the singer D4vd. Last month, D4vd, whose real name is David Anthony Burke, was charged with murdering a 14-year-old girl. He has pleaded not guilty. At the time, Polymarket assigned a "near-zero probability" that D4vd would be the top-ranked search over figures like Pope Leo XIV and Kendrick Lamar, prosecutors said. When D4vd was publicly announced as the top-searched person in December, Spagnuolo allegedly made around $1.2 million. "We're working with law enforcement on their investigation," a Google spokesperson said in a statement. "The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies. We've placed the employee on leave and will take the appropriate action." Prosecutors said Spagnuolo, who traded on Polymarket under the username "AlphaRaccoon," also sought to cover up his bets with a service that adds privacy protection to cryptocurrency transactions, according to the complaint. His account vanished from the market after users on X and Discord speculated that it had been used by a Google insider to trade ahead of the search results announcement, prosecutors said. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, the Army sergeant charged with insider trading on the Maduro ouster, has pleaded not guilty. Polymarket has said it is bolstering efforts against insider trading as the company aims to expand its U.S. presence. In March, the company updated its rules to clarify that certain kinds of wagers are prohibited, such as acting on stolen confidential information or betting if customers are in a position to influence the outcome of an event. Polymarket is partnering with blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis Inc. on insider-trading detection tools. The firm is also working with Palantir and TWG AI to identify and report suspicious activity on sports wagers on its U.S. exchange. Polymarket worked with authorities on the case of Van Dyke and said they flagged another trader who was arrested on Wednesday in New York. "With 2 out of 2 arrests in this industry resulting from our criminal referrals, Polymarket has emerged as the enforcement leader," the company said in a post on X. Polymarket's main business operates offshore, outside the oversight of U.S. regulators, and it sometimes allows customers to register without identity checks. While Polymarket's terms of service bar U.S. customers, traders have spoken publicly about circumventing the company's restrictions by using a virtual private network. The case is is U.S. v. Spagnuolo, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York. (With assistance from Ava Benny-Morrison, Nathaniel Popper and Denitsa Tsekova.)
US FAA orders SpaceX to investigate Starship Flight 12 mishap
Washington, May 28 (SocialNews.XYZ) The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered SpaceX to conduct a "mishap investigation" involving the Super Heavy booster during the 12th flight test of its giant Starship rocket. In a statement on Wednesday (local time), the FAA said it had determined that the flight test on Friday resulted in a mishap during the booster's return flight over the Gulf of Mexico following stage separation. The agency said it will oversee the process and approve SpaceX's final report and any corrective actions. According to the FAA, a mishap investigation is intended to enhance public safety, determine the root cause of the event, and identify corrective measures to prevent a recurrence, reports Xinhua news agency. The agency said that a return to flight for the Starship Super Heavy booster will depend on the FAA determining that no system, process, or procedure related to the mishap poses a threat to public safety. No injuries or damage to public property were reported following the incident, the FAA said. Starship lifted off from SpaceX's Starbase facility in the US state of Texas at 5:30 p.m. Central Time (2230 GMT) last Friday (May 22). All 33 Raptor 3 engines on the Super Heavy booster ignited successfully at liftoff. However, one engine shut down prematurely during ascent. Following a successful first-stage ascent, Starship's upper stage ignited its six Raptor engines during the hot-staging manoeuvre and continued toward space, according to SpaceX. After stage separation, the Super Heavy booster carried out a directional flip manoeuvre and attempted its boostback burn. However, not all planned engines ignited, resulting in only a partial boostback burn before the manoeuvre terminated prematurely. The booster later attempted to reignite its engines for the landing burn before making a hard splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico. The Starship upper stage successfully entered its planned coast phase despite the loss of one of its six engines. SpaceX said the vehicle demonstrated its engine-out capability and still achieved its intended trajectory. During the coast phase, Starship deployed 20 Starlink simulators and two modified Starlink satellites designed to capture imagery of the vehicle in flight. The two modified satellites transmitted images of Starship's thermal protection system back to mission controllers. All 22 payloads remained on the same suborbital trajectory as Starship and were expected to burn up during atmospheric reentry. About one hour after liftoff, Starship re-entered Earth's atmosphere and collected critical data on the performance of its heatshield and structural strength during reentry, according to SpaceX. In the final minutes of flight, Starship carried out a manoeuvre designed to test the structural limits of its rear flaps, along with a dynamic banking manoeuvre intended to simulate the trajectory of future missions returning to Starbase. Starship later splashed down in the Indian Ocean as planned. According to SpaceX, the vehicle successfully completed its landing flip manoeuvre and landing burn with two functioning Raptor engines before splashdown. The mission marked the first flight of the next-generation Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy booster, featuring upgraded Raptor engines and a newly designed launch pad at Starbase. According to SpaceX, the primary objective of the test flight was to evaluate for the first time the performance of the upgraded vehicle, its propulsion system and ground infrastructure in a real-flight environment. The launch attempt originally scheduled for May 21 was scrubbed due to a technical issue. SpaceX founder Elon Musk said a hydraulic pin holding the launch tower arm in place failed to retract as planned. Starship is slated to serve as the lunar landing system for NASA's Artemis program, which aims to return astronauts to the Moon and lay the groundwork for future human missions to Mars.
SpaceX Starship rockets grounded pending probe into test flight mishap
SpaceX Starship launches are on hold pending an investigation into last week's test flight. The Federal Aviation Administration announced on Wednesday that the hourlong spaceflight resulted in a mishap based on the performance of the mega rocket's first-stage booster. Minutes after Starship blasted off from Texas on Friday, the booster separated as normal but engines conked out as it made its way back to Earth. Instead of a controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico, the booster came in hard. There were no reports of injury or property damage, according to the FAA, which will oversee the company's investigation. The spacecraft continued around the world, releasing 20 mock satellites before ending the mission as planned with a fiery splashdown in the Indian Ocean. The 407-foot (124-metre) rocket is SpaceX CEO Elon Musk's biggest and most powerful Starship yet, designed to carry crews to Mars. NASA is looking for it to land astronauts on the moon as soon as 2028 and help build a lunar base. More From This Section Zelenskyy asks Trump for more US air defence aid against Russian attacks Washington paper mill implosion leaves 2 dead, 9 workers still missing Iran 'negotiating on fumes', says Trump, shrugs off midterms' impact on war Nasa unveils 3-phase plan for permanent moon base; 3 missions this year Israel-Hezbollah fighting escalates as US-Iran peace talks drag on
US charges Google engineer with insider trading on Polymarket
NEW YORK, May 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department has charged a Google software engineer with using insider information to rig bets tied to Google's most-searched list on prediction market Polymarket, earning $1.2 million in profits, according to a complaint unsealed on Wednesday. Michele Spagnuolo, a 36-year-old Italian citizen, allegedly used insider information to bet on long-shot candidates like indie pop musician D4vd, who appeared on Google's most-searched list after he was arrested and accused of murdering a teenage girl, according to the complaint. D4vd was the most-searched person of the year, according to Google statistics that were released on December 4, and Spagnuolo allegedly used insider information when betting on November 27 that D4vd would top the list. The bet was particularly profitable, because the markets placed a "near-zero probability" that D4vd would be the most-searched person on Google, according to the complaint. Spagnuolo, on an account called "AlphaRaccoon," also used insider information when placing other bets based on Google's most-searched list, according to the complaint. He made a bet in October that rapper Kendrick Lamar would top the list, at a time when Google's internal data showed that Lamar was on track to be the most-searched person of the year. Reuters could not immediately identify an attorney for Spagnuolo. Spagnuolo lives in Switzerland, according to the complaint, filed in the federal court in Manhattan. U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton said in a statement that prosecutors will pursue corporate insiders who seek to use confidential business information to turn a profit in prediction markets. "Insider trading compromises the integrity of our markets, and the American people want this greed-driven conduct investigated and prosecuted," Clayton said. Google said in a statement that it is working with law enforcement and that using confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of company policy. Spagnuolo has been placed on leave, according to a Google spokesperson. Federal prosecutors in April charged a U.S. Army soldier with using classified information to place Polymarket bets on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. (Reporting by Dietrich Knauth; Editing by Sonali Paul)
Google Engineer Charged With Insider Trading After Making $1.2m On Polymarket
Google engineer charged with insider trading after making $1.2M on Polymarket - BERITAJA is one of the most discussed topics today. In this article, you will find a clear explanation, key facts, and the latest updates related to this topic, presented in a concise and easy-to-understand way. Read more news on Beritaja. The U.S. Justice Department charged Google package technologist Michele Spagnuolo pinch insider trading, alleging the worker made $1.2 cardinal trading connected Polymarket based connected confidential business information. Spagnuolo, who utilized the sanction "AlphaRaccoon" connected Polymarket, has worked astatine Google for complete 12 years, according to accusation connected LinkedIn. "As alleged, Spagnuolo violated the duties he owed to his employer and utilized Google's confidential business accusation to make much than $1.2 cardinal successful trading profits connected Polymarket," Jay Clayton, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said successful a property release. "Insider trading compromises the integrity of our markets, and the American group want this greed-driven behaviour investigated and prosecuted." Prediction markets for illustration Polymarket, Kalshi, and others let users to stake connected beautiful overmuch anything. Insider trading is not allowed connected these platforms because it's illegal, but immoderate users still perpetrate the offense. The Justice Department precocious charged a U.S. Army soldier for allegedly utilizing his insider knowledge of the U.S. subject cognition to seizure Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro to make $400,000 connected Polymarket. According to the complaint, Spagnuolo risked complete $2.7 cardinal connected wagers related to Google's 2025 Year successful Search, a trading run successful which Google reveals the world's about celebrated searches of the year. Spagnuolo allegedly accessed confidential, soul Google Search information about the most-searched celebrities to pass his bets. "Polymarket worked intimately pinch the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York and the CFTC, and is the only prediction level to day whose practice has led to insider trading charges successful the United States," a Polymarket spokesperson told TechCrunch. "Blockchain trading is transparent, traceable, and bad actors time off footprints. We are committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets arsenic good arsenic enforcing our rules and moving pinch our regulators and rule enforcement." A Google spokesperson told TechCrunch the institution is moving pinch rule enforcement connected its investigation. "The worker accessed our trading worldly utilizing a instrumentality disposable to each employees, but utilizing specified confidential accusation to spot bets is simply a superior breach of our policies," Google said successful an emailed statement, "We've placed the worker connected time off and will return the due action."
