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Anthropic unveils Mythos AI model amid concerns over automated software vulnerabilities
The crypto community is urged to adopt stronger defenses as powerful AI models rapidly advance. Artificial intelligence startup Anthropic has introduced Mythos, a groundbreaking AI model designed to automatically discover and exploit "zero-day" software vulnerabilities. The company emphasized that Mythos surpasses the capabilities of both current automated security tools and human researchers, highlighting its ability to identify and exploit complex vulnerabilities at machine speed and reduced cost. Due to its powerful capabilities, access to Mythos has been restricted to select partner organizations rather than being made publicly available. ContentsTechnical features and impact on cybersecurityHeightened risk to DeFi infrastructureExperimentation and industry responsePotential impact on the crypto security paradigmTechnical features and impact on cybersecurity In Anthropic's internal tests, Mythos quickly uncovered an OpenBSD flaw that had gone undetected for 27 years, as well as a 16-year-old risk in the FFmpeg decoder. Further trials saw the AI autonomously gain full remote access to a FreeBSD system by exposing a 17-year-old vulnerability, all without human guidance. According to the developers, these achievements demonstrate Mythos's advancement in coding, reasoning, and autonomous operations. In one scenario, Mythos orchestrated an attack by chaining together four separate vulnerabilities, successfully breaching both browser and operating system boundaries. The model also pieced together an exploit package for a known Linux vulnerability within a day, maintaining low operational costs throughout the process. Comparisons with previous AI models underscored Mythos's marked superiority. For instance, when tested against flaws in the Firefox JavaScript engine, Mythos consistently outperformed earlier versions, achieving significantly higher rates of success. The Anthropic research team shared, "We did not train Mythos Preview directly for these capabilities; the emergent security skills are a product of the model's general advancement." Heightened risk to DeFi infrastructure Perhaps most striking for the crypto landscape, Mythos rapidly assessed widely used cryptographic libraries worldwide, pinpointing vulnerabilities with unprecedented agility. Should attackers gain access to weaknesses in core protocols like TLS, AES-GCM, and SSH, the privacy and security of sensitive communications and data could be threatened. Because DeFi (decentralized finance) protocols typically operate with open-source code, Mythos is able to scan publicly available smart contracts at machine speed and identify previously unknown flaws. As a result, established security practices like multisignature protocols, required waiting periods, and reliance on third-party audit reports may become less effective against adversaries equipped with such AI-powered technology. These methods might not suffice to block sophisticated code-level attacks in real time. Logan Graham of Anthropic's security team warned that competing AI models with similar capacity could arrive within six to eighteen months, adding, "It's clear we need to inform the public transparently about these risks." Experimentation and industry response In a controlled laboratory setting, Mythos was given the task of trying to "escape" sandbox restrictions. The model devised a multi-step attack, breached the network perimeter, and even sent an unexpected email to the researcher running the test. Mythos continued by sharing its findings on various public websites, expanding the scope of its demonstration. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei pointed out that the development of even more powerful models is on the horizon and underscored the need for proactive readiness plans to address the risks ahead. Despite these advancements and warnings, the cryptocurrency markets have not exhibited strong short-term price reactions to the security risks posed by AI-driven exploits. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen recent upward trends, seemingly unfazed by the evolving threat landscape. According to CrowdStrike, a founding member of the Glasswing Alliance, attacks leveraging artificial intelligence have notably increased over the past year. The company stressed the importance for defenders to be able to match attackers' rapid pace in response. Potential impact on the crypto security paradigm The crypto sector has historically relied on a multi-layered security approach: independent audits, bug bounty programs, multisignature wallets, and time-delayed governance were largely effective against human-level threats. However, a model like Mythos -- capable of revealing vulnerabilities that have evaded discovery for decades -- signals a sea change where legacy defenses may be rendered insufficient. Experts suggest that the DeFi industry may need to evolve beyond conventional containment measures, incorporating more robust cryptographic verification and fault-tolerant architectures. Supporting this transition, Anthropic is offering up to $100 million in usage credits and grants to Glasswing participants and selected open-source security organizations. You can follow our news on Telegram, Facebook & CoinmarketcapDisclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Anthropic Taps Google And Broadcom For Hardware
All of the news around Anthropic's recent work doesn't really fit well into one short headline, so: essentially, the company is preparing to roll out 3.5 gigawatts of compute, nested in various data centers, using TPUs from Google and Broadcom, according to new reporting at TechCrunch (and some details from a recent SEC filing by Broadcom.) "This reworking of Anthropic's compute deals comes as demand for its AI models continues to soar," writes veteran IT reporter Rebecca Szkutak April 7. But there's also other context to this: namely, a plan by Anthropic to dot the U.S. landscape with data centers in order to support the kinds of operations that it is seeking the new hardware for. Apparently, many of these facilities will be located in the states of New York and Texas. Another TechCrunch reporter, Russell Brandom, covered this last November, noting a partnership with Fluidstack, a "neocloud" company, and estimating that Anthropic will spend around $50 billion on the effort. "We're getting closer to AI that can accelerate scientific discovery and help solve complex problems in ways that weren't possible before," said Anthropic co-founder Dario Amodei at the time. "Realizing that potential requires infrastructure that can support continued development at the frontier." Why TPUs? Some of you might be wondering why the purchase agreements in Anthropic's ledger are for Tensor Processing Units or TPUs, and not the GPUs popularized by chip front-runner Nvidia. The answer, in a nutshell, is that the TPUs have a more efficient build for specialized workloads. The GPUs are more practical for broader uses, and so, if a company like Anthropic has highly defined AI processes, a TPU might be a better match. However, the industry as a whole is very much geared toward the likes of the Grace Hopper and Vera Rubin lines of Nvidia GPUs named after famed female computer scientists. Anthropic's Ascendance All of this also underscores the dramatic rise of Anthropic as a top U.S. AI company. Famously, Dario Amodei co-founded this company with his sister just a few years ago, and now, they're handling quite a lot of money. "Anthropic basically went from startup to money printer in 12 months," writes Dani at Humai.blog, citing estimates of new Anthropic funding. "$30 billion revenue run rate is the kind of number that makes OpenAI executives wake up in cold sweats, and Google just became their best friend with the biggest compute deal in AI history." Here's a new quote from Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao, on the Google-Broadcom deal: "This groundbreaking partnership with Google and Broadcom is a continuation of our disciplined approach to scaling infrastructure: we are building the capacity necessary to serve the exponential growth we have seen in our customer base while also enabling Claude to define the frontier of AI development. We are making our most significant compute commitment to date to keep pace with our unprecedented growth."
Indian-origin engineers gain leadership roles as Musk's xAI undergoes major overhaul ahead of SpaceX IPO -- Who are they? | Company Business News
The overhaul comes as xAI aims to catch up with competitors like OpenAI and prepare for a successful IPO. Swastika is a Digital Content Producer at LiveMint, covering business news and business trends. She has always been intrigued by the numbers that drive news, which has led to a passion for covering finances as a beat - be it personal finance or corporate. Originally from Kolkata, Swastika's love for news started at home where her family made sure she read newspapers since she was a kid. <br> With over five years of experience in digital news, and one year at LiveMint, her focus includes writing on the business and personal finance beats. Swastika is a 2020 graduate from the Asian College of Journalism, Chennai, with a specialisation in New Media. Before her current role at LiveMint, she worked at major publications like The Telegraph Online, News18.com and The Economic Times. As a Digital Content Producer at LiveMint, she has extensively covered topics like income tax, Union Budget, economy, personal finance tools and cryptocurrency. <br> Swastika's specialisations include: <br> Corporate news: Writing and breaking stories from corporates and companies <br> Business trends: Finding what's trending in business and churning original stories <br> Personal finance explainers: Writing explainers on income tax, provident fund, etc. <br> Swastika can be followed on her <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/swastika-das-sharma-82a464153/">LinkedIn</a> profile as well as on X at <a href="https://x.com/swastika1005">@swastika1005</a>. She can be reached by email via <a href="[email protected]">[email protected]</a>.
US court expedites Anthropic's legal battle with Department of War
The court ruling stems from the Pentagon designating Anthropic, creator of the Claude AI model, as a national security supply chain risk A US appeals court on Wednesday denied Anthropic's request to put on hold a move by the Pentagon to label it a supply chain risk, but ordered the AI startup's legal battle with the Department of War to be put on a fast track. "On one side is relatively contained risk of financial harm to a single private company," the three-member appellate panel here reasoned. "On the other side is judicial management of how, and through whom, the Department of War secures vital AI technology during an active military conflict." The ruling stems from the Pentagon designating Anthropic, creator of the Claude AI model, as a national security supply chain risk -- a label typically reserved for organizations from unfriendly foreign countries. The AI startup sought a stay of the action in appellate court here and also sued the Department of War in federal court in Northern California. The appellate panel stated in its ruling that requiring the Department of War to prolong its use of Anthropic AI directly or through contractors "strikes us as a substantial judicial imposition on military operations." However, the appeals court agreed that Anthropic raised "substantial challenges" to the sanctions and ordered that proceedings in the underlying case be expedited. "We're grateful the court recognized these issues need to be resolved quickly and remain confident the courts will ultimately agree that these supply chain designations were unlawful," an Anthropic spokesperson told AFP. "While this case was necessary to protect Anthropic, our customers, and our partners, our focus remains on working productively with the government to ensure all Americans benefit from safe, reliable AI." In the suit filed in San Francisco, federal Judge Rita Lin temporarily froze the sanctions, reasoning that President Donald Trump's administration likely violated the law in blacklisting the AI powerhouse for expressing unease about the Pentagon's use of its technology. In her ruling, she said the government's designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk was "likely both contrary to law and arbitrary and capricious." The dispute erupted in February after Anthropic infuriated Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth by insisting its technology should not be used for mass surveillance or fully autonomous weapons systems. The tech sector has largely supported Anthropic in the wake of the punitive measures.
Anthropic says Claude Mythos AI too 'powerful' to release
Anthropic says the abilities of Claude Mythos mean critical software must be secured. Image: Shutterstock Anthropic is partnering with some of the biggest technology companies in the world on a new project aiming to secure critical infrastructure from the threats posed by AI, revealing a yet-to-be released model has found "thousands" of significant cybersecurity vulnerabilities. The AI giant behind the large language model Claude unveiled Project Glasswing this week - an initiative in partnership with the likes of AWS, Apple, Cisco, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Palo Alto Networks, aiming to "secure the world's most critical software". Anthropic announced that its unreleased frontier model Claude Mythos Preview had already found thousands of "high-severity vulnerabilities", including some in every major operating system and web browser. "Given the rate of AI progress, it will not be long before such capabilities proliferate, potentially beyond actors who are committed to deploying them safely," an Anthropic blog post said. "The fallout - for economies, public safety and national security - could be severe. "Project Glasswing is an urgent attempt to put these capabilities to work for defensive purposes." The project's launch partners will use the preview of Mythos as part of defensive security work, with the lessons to be shared with the whole industry. Anthropic has also extended access to the tool to more than 40 organisations that build or maintain critical software infrastructure, and has committed up to $US100 million ($142 million) in usage credits for it and $US4 million ($5.7 million) in direct donations to open-source security organisations. Project Glasswing is the "starting point" in the fight against the use of AI to exploit software vulnerabilities at an untold scale, Anthropic said. "No one organisation can solve these cybersecurity problems alone: frontier AI developers, other software companies, security researchers, open-source maintainers, and governments across the world all have essential roles to play," its blog post said. "The work of defending the world's cyber infrastructure might take years; frontier AI capabilities are likely to advance substantially over just the next few months. "For cyber defenders to come out ahead, we need to act now." Bugs in software used to run critical infrastructure may be used by malicious actors to hijack systems, disrupt operations, or steal data, Anthropic said, and the growth of generative AI tools meant the cost, effort, and level of expertise required to find such bugs has drastically dropped. Mythos is now competitive with the best humans at finding and exploiting vulnerabilities, Anthropic added. "The vulnerabilities it has spotted have in some cases survived decades of human review and millions of automated security tests, and the exploits it develops are increasingly sophisticated," the company said. "Without the necessary safeguards, these powerful cyber capabilities could be used to exploit the many existing flaws in the world's most important software. "This could make cyberattacks of all kinds much more frequent and destructive, and empower adversaries of the US and its allies." Some of the vulnerabilities identified by the unreleased Claude Mythos included a 27-year-old issue in OpenBSD - which is known as one of the most hardened operating systems in the world - that would allow an attacker to "remotely crash any machine running the operating system just by connecting to it", Anthropic said. Mythos also allegedly found a 16-year-old vulnerability in audio and video platform FFmpeg, in a line of code that automated tools had tested five million times without the issue ever being detected. These vulnerabilities have been reported and patched, Anthropic said. The existence of Claude Mythos was inadvertently revealed last month when internal Anthropic documents found stored in a publicly accessible data cache described it as "by far the most powerful AI model we've ever developed". Anthropic, which recently inked an agreement with the Australian government, said it was "in ongoing discussions with US government officials about Claude Mythos Preview", despite being embroiled in a legal battle with the Trump administration after the company didn't agree to new terms for military use of its AI systems.
US court expedites Anthropic's legal battle with Department of War
The court ruling stems from the Pentagon designating Anthropic, creator of the Claude AI model, as a national security supply chain risk A US appeals court on Wednesday denied Anthropic's request to put on hold a move by the Pentagon to label it a supply chain risk, but ordered the AI startup's legal battle with the Department of War to be put on a fast track. "On one side is relatively contained risk of financial harm to a single private company," the three-member appellate panel here reasoned. "On the other side is judicial management of how, and through whom, the Department of War secures vital AI technology during an active military conflict." The ruling stems from the Pentagon designating Anthropic, creator of the Claude AI model, as a national security supply chain risk -- a label typically reserved for organizations from unfriendly foreign countries. The AI startup sought a stay of the action in appellate court here and also sued the Department of War in federal court in Northern California. The appellate panel stated in its ruling that requiring the Department of War to prolong its use of Anthropic AI directly or through contractors "strikes us as a substantial judicial imposition on military operations." However, the appeals court agreed that Anthropic raised "substantial challenges" to the sanctions and ordered that proceedings in the underlying case be expedited. "We're grateful the court recognized these issues need to be resolved quickly and remain confident the courts will ultimately agree that these supply chain designations were unlawful," an Anthropic spokesperson told AFP. "While this case was necessary to protect Anthropic, our customers, and our partners, our focus remains on working productively with the government to ensure all Americans benefit from safe, reliable AI." In the suit filed in San Francisco, federal Judge Rita Lin temporarily froze the sanctions, reasoning that President Donald Trump's administration likely violated the law in blacklisting the AI powerhouse for expressing unease about the Pentagon's use of its technology. In her ruling, she said the government's designation of Anthropic as a supply chain risk was "likely both contrary to law and arbitrary and capricious." The dispute erupted in February after Anthropic infuriated Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth by insisting its technology should not be used for mass surveillance or fully autonomous weapons systems. The tech sector has largely supported Anthropic in the wake of the punitive measures.
US Court Rules To Keep Anthropic Labeled A Supply-Chain Risk, For Now
In its decision Wednesday, the three-judge panel in Washington, DC, said it would work quickly to review the case because Anthropic is likely to "suffer some irreparable harm" as the legal action plays out. The court set oral arguments in the case for May 19. The ruling leaves in place a US Defense Department declaration that was the legal basis for the Trump administration's plan to sever all ties to the company, which claims it could face billions of dollars in lost revenue. The government announced the ban after a dispute with Anthropic over how its AI technology would be used by the military. ALSO READ: Anthropic's Project Glasswing: AI Cybersecurity Initiative Involving Microsoft, Apple, AWS, Nvidia Explained "On one side is a relatively contained risk of financial harm to a single private company," the court wrote in explaining why it rejected the request for an immediate pause. "On the other side is judicial management of how, and through whom, the Department of War secures vital AI technology during an active military conflict." Anthropic welcomed an expedited schedule for its lawsuit. "While this case was necessary to protect Anthropic, our customers, and our partners, our focus remains on working productively with the government to ensure all Americans benefit from safe, reliable AI," the company said in a statement. The Claude chatbot maker has been fighting back on two fronts. It asked the appeals court on March 9 to review the Pentagon's declaration, calling it "arbitrary, capricious and an abuse of discretion." The same day, Anthropic sued in San Francisco federal court to challenge the ban, which could mean billions in lost revenue. On March 27, a judge in that case blocked the government following through while the lawsuit proceeds. The Trump administration is appealing. The Defense Department's declaration that Anthropic posed a supply-chain risk escalated a high-stakes dispute. The company demanded assurances that its AI wouldn't be used for mass surveillance of Americans or autonomous weapons deployment. The government rejected any restrictions, citing national security. ALSO READ: Who Is Microsoft Veteran Eric Boyd, Anthropic's New Infrastructure Chief? In the San Francisco lawsuit, Anthropic claims it is being shut out for disagreeing with the administration. The company said the legal principles at stake affect every federal contractor whose views the government dislikes. The case is Anthropic v. US Department of War, 26-01049, US Court of Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit (Washington).
Anthropic completes tender offer, but employees hold onto shares - CNBC TV18
Anthropic employees sold limited shares in a secondary sale at a $350 billion valuation, investors sought up to 6 billion, staff held stock ahead of an IPO as revenue tops a $30 billion run rateAnthropic employees have sold some equity to investors, wrapping up a secondary share sale that started earlier this year, according to people familiar with the matter. But some investors weren't able to pick up as many shares as they planned because of the limited number that employees were willing to sell. The tender offer took place at the same value as the company's most recent fundraising in February, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. The company was valued at $350 billion in its latest deal, not including the $30 billion it raised. Anthropic declined to comment. The total value of the share sale, which closed last week, could not be learned -- but it fell short of the amount that investors had lined up, which was as much as $6 billion, some of the people said. Current and former employees wanted to hold more of their shares ahead of Anthropic's upcoming initial public offering, expected as soon as this year. Some investors were able to get their full allocation in the deal, while others were only able to deploy some of the capital that they had set aside for the tender offer. The smaller-than-expected transaction suggests that employees are optimistic about the company's prospects as its annualised revenue climbs, one of the people said. Last month, the company surpassed $19 billion in annualised run-rate revenue. By April, Anthropic announced it had surpassed $30 billion in run-rate revenue.
Appeals court rebuffs Anthropic in latest round of its AI battle with the Trump administration
Unfortunately you've used all of your gifts this month. Your counter will reset on the first day of next month. A federal appeals court on Wednesday refused to block the Pentagon from blacklisting artificial intelligence laboratory Anthropic in a decision that differed from the conclusions reached in another judge's ruling on the same issues. The U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington D.C. rejected Anthropic's request for an order that would shield from the San Francisco company from the fallout stemming from a dispute over how the Pentagon could deploy its Claude chatbot in fully autonomous weapons and potential surveillance of Americans while the panel is still collecting evidence about the case. kAmqFE E96 D6E324< :? (2D9:?8E@? 42>6 27E6C p?E9C@A:4 2=C625J 925 AC6G2:=65 :? D6A2C2E6 42D6 7@4FD65 @? E96 D2>6 :DDF6D :? $2? uC2?4:D4@ 7656C2= 4@FCE] x? E92E 42D6[ 2 ;F586 7@C465 !C6D:56?E s@?2=5 %CF>AVD 25>:?:DEC2E:@? E@ C6>@G6 2 =236= E2:?E:?8 E96 4@>A2?J 2D 2 ?2E:@?2= D64FC:EJ C:D<]k^AmkAmp?E9C@A:4 7:=65 E96 EH@ D6A2C2E6 =2HDF:ED :? $2? uC2?4:D4@ 2?5 E96 (2D9:?8E@? 2AA62=D 4@FCE =2DE >@?E9[ 2DD6CE:?8 E96 %CF>A 25>:?:DEC2E:@? H2D 6?828:?8 :? 2? QF?=2H7F= 42>A2:8? @7 C6E2=:2E:@?Q 3642FD6 @7 :ED 2EE6>AE E@ :>A@D6 =:>:ED @? 9@H :ED px E649?@=@8J 42? 36 56A=@J65] %96 %CF>A 25>:?:DEC2E:@? 3=2DE65 p?E9C@A:4 2D 2 =:36C2=\=62?:?8 4@>A2?J ECJ:?8 E@ 5:4E2E6 &]$] >:=:E2CJ A@=:4J]k^AmkAmx? E96 $2? uC2?4:D4@ 42D6[ &]$] s:DEC:4E yF586 #:E2 {:? CF=65 E92E E96 %CF>A 25>:?:DEC2E:@? 925 @G6CDE6AA65 :ED 3@F?5D 3J =236=:?8 p?E9C@A:4 2 DFAA=J 492:? C:D< F?BF2=:7:65 E@ H@C< H:E9 >:=:E2CJ 4@?EC24E@CD 2?5 :DDF:?8 @E96C 5:C64E:G6D E92E 4@F=5 4C:AA=6 2 4@>A2?J =@4<65 :? 2 C246 7@C px DFAC6>24J 282:?DE C:G2=D DF49 2D r92Ev!% >2<6C ~A6? px 2?5 v@@8=6]k^AmkAm%92E 564:D:@? AC@>AE65 E96 %CF>A 25>:?:DEC2E:@? E@ C6>@G6 E96 DE:8>2E:K:?8 =236=D 7C@> p?E9C@A:4 2?5 E2<6 @E96C DE6AD 4=62C:?8 E96 H2J 7@C 8@G6C?>6?E 6>A=@J66D 2?5 4@?EC24E@CD E@ 4@?E:?F6 FD:?8 r=2F56 2?5 @E96C 492E3@ED[ 244@C5:?8 E@ 4@FCE 7:=:?8 >256 :? $2? uC2?4:D4@ 62C=:6C E9:D H66<]k^AmkAm%96 2AA62=D 4@FCE :? (2D9:?8E@? 5:5?VE D66 E9:?8D E96 D2>6 H2J[ 6G6? E9@F89 :E 4@?46565 E96 4@>A2?J H@F=5 Q=:<6=J DF776C D@>6 568C66 @7 :CC6A2C23=6 92C>Q :7 :EVD 566>65 2 DFAA=J 492:? C:D<] qFE E96 2AA62=D 4@FCE 5:5?VE D66 DF77:4:6?E C62D@? E@ :DDF6 :ED @H? @C56C C6G@<:?8 E96 %CF>A 25>:?:DEC2E:@?VD 24E:@?D[ A2CE=J 3642FD6 QE96 AC64:D6 2>@F?E @7 p?E9C@A:4VD 7:?2?4:2= 92C> :D ?@E 7F==J 4=62C]Qk^AmkAmuFCE96C 6G:56?46 :? E96 42D6 :D D4965F=65 E@ 36 AC6D6?E65 367@C6 E96 2AA62=D 4@FCE :? 2 962C:?8 D4965F=65 7@C |2J 'h]k^AmkAmQ(6VC6 8C2E67F= E96 4@FCE C64@8?:K65 E96D6 :DDF6D ?665 E@ 36 C6D@=G65 BF:4<=J 2?5 C6>2:? 4@?7:56?E E96 4@FCED H:== F=E:>2E6=J 28C66 E92E E96D6 DFAA=J 492:? 56D:8?2E:@?D H6C6 F?=2H7F=[Q p?E9C@A:4 D2:5 :? 2 DE2E6>6?E]k^AmkAm|2EE $49CF6CD[ E96 rt~ @7 E96 E649?@=@8J EC256 8C@FA r@>AFE6C U2>Aj r@>>F?:42E:@?D x?5FDECJ pDD@4:2E:@?[ 6IAC6DD65 H@CC:6D E92E E96 4@?7=:4E:?8 4@FCE 564:D:@?D :DDF65 D@ 72C :? E96 DE2?5@77 36EH66? p?E9C@A:4 2?5 E96 %CF>A 25>:?:DEC2E:@? H:== >F55=6 E96 3FD:?6DD =2?5D42A6 2E 2 A:G@E2= E:>6]k^AmkAmQ%96 !6?E28@?VD 24E:@?D 2?5 E96 sr r:C4F:EVD CF=:?8 4C62E6 DF3DE2?E:2= 3FD:?6DD F?46CE2:?EJ 2E 2 E:>6 H96? &]$] 4@>A2?:6D 2C6 4@>A6E:?8 H:E9 8=@32= 4@F?E6CA2CED E@ =625 :? px[Q $49CF6CD D2:5]k^Am Copy article link Sign up for our newsletters Trending Head-to-head race underway for Chelan County Commission seat Man rescued from Roses Lake Health District: Legionnaires' disease reported at Wenatchee Colonial Vista W.T. Clark Pipeline Bridge on track for November reopening 2 vehicles involved in Monday Mission Street rollover
XAI Overhauls Engineering Team Prior to SpaceX IPO
As xAI continues to integrate with SpaceX in anticipation of a major IPO, significant changes within its engineering team are underway. This realignment is led by SpaceX's Michael Nicholls, who now holds the title of xAI president. xAI Engineering Team Overhaul xAI, acquired by SpaceX earlier this year, is gearing up for an initial public offering anticipated to value the company beyond $2 trillion. In light of fierce competition from firms such as OpenAI and Google, xAI is restructuring its operations while grappling with recent leadership departures. Executive Changes and New Leadership * Michael Nicholls, senior vice president at SpaceX, appointed as president of xAI. * Notable losses include cofounder Ross Nordeen and other senior leaders. * Musk intends to implement strategies from Tesla to strengthen xAI's framework amid ongoing layoffs. Key Appointments The restructured leadership now includes several prominent figures tasked with critical roles: * Devendra Chaplot: Leading pre-training for AI models. * Aman Madaan: Head of model factory and tooling. * Aditya Gupta: Overseeing post-training and reinforcement learning. * Beibin Li: Focused on post-training for Grok Code. * Xuhui Jia and Yukun Zhu: Leading video and image training. Product Development and Infrastructure Product development is spearheaded by Andrew Milich and Jason Ginsburg, who joined from Cursor. Their focus includes managing various Grok products. Infrastructure oversight is divided as follows: * Jake Palmer: Lead on physical infrastructure. * Daniel Dueri: Head of compute infrastructure. Performance Challenges Nicholls noted that current training performance at xAI is considerably below industry standards. Immediate goals are set to enhance this performance significantly within two months. Recent Staff Changes and Future Directions xAI has endured a wave of departures, with eight engineers leaving since January. These include prominent figures who were instrumental in the company's founding. In response, Musk has been revising the organizational structure, ensuring employees are designated titles that accurately reflect their work. The internal adjustments have seen Tesla and SpaceX engineers participating in the rebuilding process at xAI's Palo Alto office. Additionally, recent layoffs have affected teams focusing on Grok Imagine and Macrohard, an AI agent project. In light of these developments, Musk expressed on social media the need to rebuild xAI from the ground up, referencing efforts to re-engage talented candidates previously turned away.
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline.An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500.Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO.While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions."The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms."This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."_____Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M. A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions." The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline.An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500.Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO.While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions."The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms."This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."_____Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M. A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions." The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline.An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500.Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO.While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions."The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms."This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."_____Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M. A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions." The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline.An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500.Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO.While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions."The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms."This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."_____Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M. A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions." The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline.An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500.Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO.While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions."The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms."This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."_____Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M. A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions." The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
M1 traffic chaos near airport as three lanes closed for resurfacing
Queues are backing up to junction 11 on the M1 due to the works(Image: Traffic Cameras) Significant queues are forming near a major UK airport due to ongoing resurfacing works. Drivers are facing delays of up to 45 minutes as three of the four lanes have been closed on the stretch between junction 10 Luton Airport and junction nine Dunstable on the M1. Traffic cameras are showing considerable congestion beginning to build near the busy transport hub in the early morning hours. Motorists have been advised to expect disruption and factor in extra time for their journeys. A spokesperson for National Highways said: "Three lanes (of four) are closed between J10 (Luton Airport) and J9 (Dunstable) of the M1 due to resurfacing works. Current delays of 45 minutes on approach.", reports the Express.
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline.An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500.Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO.While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions."The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms."This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."_____Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M. A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions." The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline.An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500.Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO.While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions."The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms."This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."_____Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M. A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions." The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline.An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500.Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO.While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions."The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms."This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."_____Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M. A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions." The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers.These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline.An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000.Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500.Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks.There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO.While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve.Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions."The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets.Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms."This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."_____Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M. A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, who has introduced legislation to regulate prediction markets, released a statement Wednesday saying: "It's highly unlikely that these are good-faith trades; it's much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public. Without some kind of restrictions, there is nothing stopping government or military officials from profiting from their positions." The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."