News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
By KEN SWEET and CHRISTOPHER L. KELLER NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets." Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M.
XAI reorganizes its engineering team ahead of SpaceX IPO
As Elon Musk's xAI merges more closely with SpaceX ahead of the space giant's blockbuster IPO, the AI company is undergoing yet another major overhaul to its engineering team, according to a memo viewed by Business Insider. SpaceX executive Michael Nicholls said the company is "clearly behind" the competition and is taking action to catch up as quickly as possible. Nicholls, the senior vice president of Starlink at SpaceX, has taken on the title of xAI president, a person with knowledge of the change told Business Insider. SpaceX, which acquired xAI earlier this year, is expected to file an initial public offering this year, which could value it at over $2 trillion, according to some reports. As it merges with SpaceX, xAI has undergone a series of organizational shake-ups while racing to keep pace with AI rivals OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google. The company has lost several cofounders and senior leaders, most recently Ross Nordeen, formerly one of Musk's closest deputies. Now, Musk is using the Tesla playbook to rebuild the company from the ground up, even as it navigates ongoing departures and layoffs. The stakes couldn't be higher: xAI is pushing toward an IPO that could value the company in the trillions. Devendra Chaplot, a former researcher at Facebook and Thinking Machines Labs, who joined the xAI last month, will lead pre-training, the initial phase in which a model learns general patterns from massive datasets, such as text, images, or code. Aman Madaan will oversee model factory and tooling, including the infrastructure, data pipelines, and training workflows used to develop and improve AI models. Aditya Gupta will head post-training and reinforcement learning, the final stage in which the model is fine-tuned, aligned with human preferences, and optimized for real-world use cases like chat or coding assistance. Beibin Li, a former researcher at Microsoft and Meta, will lead post-training for Grok Code. Xuhui Jia, who previously worked at Google DeepMind, along with Yukun Zhu, will lead video and image training. The company's product team will be led by Andrew Milich and Jason Ginsburg. The two engineers joined the company from AI coding giant Cursor in March. The product team will oversee Grok Main, Grok Voice, and Grok Imagine. Physical infrastructure will be led by Jake Palmer, and compute infrastructure by Daniel Dueri, who is the director of software engineering at SpaceX, according to LinkedIn. Other SpaceX employees have also taken on leadership roles. Matt Monson, the director of Starlink software at SpaceX, will also be leading data at xAI. On the compute team, the training performance of xAI's compute is "embarrassingly low," Nicholls said in the memo, and the company plans to improve it significantly in the next two months. A spokesperson for xAI did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Nicholls said in the internal memo that the changes are effective immediately and the company is working on giving staff titles that better describe their work. Musk first reorganized the company in February, after xAI was acquired by SpaceX. Since January, eight of the engineers who helped found the company alongside Elon Musk have left the company, including cofounders Nordeen, Guodong Zhang, and Manuel Kroiss, who led Grok Code, and Toby Pohlen, who helped lead Macrohard, the company's computer use agent project. In the wake of the cofounder departures, the company's structure has been in a near-constant state of flux, with Musk at times managing dozens of direct reports. Tesla and SpaceX engineers have also come into the company's Palo Alto office to assist with the changes, people with knowledge of the issue said. XAI has shed dozens of employees since February, Business Insider previously reported. The company cut portions of its teams working on its video and image generation tool, Grok Imagine, and Macrohard, its AI agent project, earlier this year, Business Insider also previously reported. More recently, the company has cut several members of its recruiting team, according to people with knowledge of the cuts. In March, Musk said on X that "xAI was not built right first time around, so is being rebuilt from the foundations up." He has also said that the company is looking back through old xAI candidates to bring in new people. "Many talented people over the past few years were declined an offer or even an interview @xAI," Musk wrote on X.
US court declines to block Pentagon's Anthropic blacklisting for now
NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - A Washington, D.C., federal appeals court on Wednesday declined to block the Pentagon's national security blacklisting of Anthropic for now, a win for the Trump administration that comes after another appeals court came to the opposite conclusion in a separate legal challenge by Anthropic. Anthropic, developer of the popular Claude AI assistant, alleges that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth overstepped his authority when he designated the company a national security supply-chain risk, a label that blocks Anthropic from Pentagon contracts and could trigger a government-wide blacklisting. Anthropic executives have said the designation could cost the company billions of dollars in lost business and reputational harm. A panel of judges of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit denied Anthropic's bid to pause the designation while the case plays out. The decision is not a final ruling. The lawsuit is one of two Anthropic filed over Hegseth's unprecedented move, which came after Anthropic refused to allow the military to use AI chatbot Claude for U.S. surveillance or autonomous weapons due to safety and ethics concerns. Hegseth issued orders designating Anthropic under two different laws, and Anthropic is challenging each of them separately. A California federal judge blocked one of the orders on March 26, saying the Pentagon appeared to have unlawfully retaliated against Anthropic for its views on AI safety. Anthropic's designation was the first time a U.S. company has been publicly designated a supply-chain risk under obscure government-procurement statutes aimed at protecting military systems from enemy sabotage or infiltration. In its lawsuits, Anthropic says the government violated its right to free speech under the First Amendment of the Constitution by retaliating against its views on AI safety. The company said it was not given a chance to dispute its designation, in violation of its Fifth Amendment right to due process. The lawsuits say the designations were unlawful, unsupported by facts and inconsistent with the military's past praise of Claude. The Justice Department says that Anthropic's refusal to lift the restrictions could cause uncertainty in the Pentagon over how it could use Claude and risk disabling military systems during operations, according to a court filing. The government said its decision stemmed from Anthropic's refusal to accept contractual terms, not its views on AI safety. The D.C. case concerns a law that could lead to the blacklist widening to the broader civilian government following an interagency review process. The California case deals with a narrower statute that excludes Anthropic from Pentagon contracts related to military information systems. (This story has been refiled to correct the dateline to April 8) Reporting by Jack Queen in New York; Editing by Noeleen Walder and Cynthia Osterman Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab * Suggested Topics: * Government * Constitutional Law * Civil Rights * Appellate * Public Policy Jack Queen Thomson Reuters Jack Queen covers major lawsuits against the Trump administration involving urgent questions of executive power and how their resolution could affect the law and the legal profession in the years to come. Previously, he covered criminal and civil cases against Trump during the interim of his presidential terms, including gavel-to-gavel coverage of his historic hush money trial in New York and his civil fraud trial, which ended in a half-billion-dollar judgment. Jack has also covered high-profile defamation cases including the Dominion Voting Systems' lawsuit against Fox News, which settled for $787 million after intense pretrial litigation. Based in New York, he specializes in breaking news as well as analysis, explainers and other explanatory reporting.
Anthropic says Mythos model too powerful for release
AI startup Anthropic said it created a model that is too powerful to be released to the public. Mythos exposed thousands of software vulnerabilities in common applications for which no fix exists, according to Anthropic, which instead shared a version of the software with certain companies to bolster defenses against AI-powered hacking. The situation is “almost reminiscent of Y2K,†except that in this case, cyber defenses are already “abysmal†and AI coding makes them more vulnerable, Semafor’s tech editor wrote. “It would be great if Mythos were the wakeup call the world needed to finally do something about cybersecurity, but that seems unlikely.†Meanwhile, Meta released its latest AI model Wednesday, which lagged rivals on coding abilities.
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets." _____ Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M.
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets." Ken Sweet And Christopher L. Keller (), The Associated Press
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Markets in Motion: oil plunges as markets react to geopolitical shift Markets react sharply to geopolitics as trends shift beneath the surface In this week's Markets in Motion, Bruce Campbell highlights how a sudden ceasefire announcement triggered immediate volatility across commodities. Oil prices dropped sharply on the news, while gold and silver -- which had been under pressure -- rebounded strongly, underscoring how quickly market narratives [...]
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets." Ken Sweet And Christopher L. Keller (), The Associated Press
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
US-Iran ceasefire confirmed, Polymarket odds lock across timelines
The US-Iran ceasefire has locked in at 100% YES across all ceasefire-related markets on Polymarket, following President Trump's announcement of a truce. The April 15 market jumped from 12% to 100% in a single day. This ceasefire agreement moved odds across every timeline, not just April 15. The April 30, May 31, June 30, and December 31 sub-markets all price at 100% YES. The largest single move was a 24-point spike in minutes on the April 15 market, as traders rapidly priced in the ceasefire's validity. ## Market reaction Daily trading volume on the April 15 market hit $1,385,525 in USDC. The 24-point spike from 67% to 90% shows that even with that level of liquidity, single large orders can move odds substantially. The term structure is now flat, with all deadlines priced identically at 100%, meaning traders see no distinction between near-term and year-end timelines. ## Why it matters With odds at 100%, there is no remaining upside for YES positions. The action now shifts to ancillary markets. US forces entering Iran and Iranian regime fall markets could see movement as traders reprice their broader geopolitical bets in light of the ceasefire. ## What to watch The upcoming negotiations in Pakistan are the next catalyst. If talks falter or Israeli operations intensify, the ceasefire's durability gets tested. Specific indicators: any changes in CENTCOM's posture, Iran's compliance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and unexpected moves by regional proxies like Hezbollah.
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.
A DC appeals court denies Anthropic's bid to pause the DOD's supply chain risk designation, after a California judge granted a preliminary injunction in March
@aiatmeta: Introducing Muse Spark, the first in the Muse family of models developed by Meta Superintelligence Labs. Muse Spark is a natively multimodal reasoning model with support for tool-use, visual chain of thought, and multi-agent orchestration. Muse Spark is available today at [image] Meta is back! Muse Spark scores 52 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, behind only Gemini 3.1 Pro, GPT-5.4, and Claude Opus 4.6. Muse Spark is the first new release since Llama 4 in April 2025 and also Meta's first release that is not open weights Muse Spark is a new model from @Meta evaluated on Artificial Analysis. We were given early access by Meta to independently benchmark the model. It is the first frontier-class model from Meta since Llama 4 Maverick was released in April 2025, and notably the first @AIatMeta model that is not being released as open weights [...]