News & Updates
The latest news and updates from companies in the WLTH portfolio.
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets." Ken Sweet And Christopher L. Keller (), The Associated Press
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran.
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK - A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. Recommended Videos An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets." _____ Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M.
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK - A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. Recommended Videos An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets." _____ Keller reported from Albuquerque, N.M.
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts.
Did Polymarket user bet Trump would praise Allah on Easter?
There was no evidence such a bet existed on the Polymarket website. The rumor came from an apparent quip Adam Kinzinger, a CNN commentator and former Republican congressman, made on X and Facebook. We reached out to him to confirm the intent of his post. In April 2026, a rumor spread that a user on prediction marketplace Polymarket bet U.S. President Donald Trump would praise Allah on Easter. The rumor spread after Trump made a post that included the phrase "Praise be to Allah" on his social media network, Truth Social, on Easter Sunday, April 5, 2026 (archived). The best theory I've heard is that one of those betting sites like Polymarket or Kashi had the odds of Trump saying "Praise be to Allah" on Easter Sunday at odds of something like a trillion to one so the username "RealJohnBarron47" just made a killing The username mentioned in the post was a reference to "John Barron," an alias Trump reportedly used to interact with the press when he lived and worked in New York City, and the number 47, referring to his current presidency (Trump was the 45th U.S. president during his first term and became the 47th following the 2024 presidential election). The implication of that post was that Trump himself made the bet that he would say "Praise be to Allah" on Polymarket, then posted the phrase publicly. Snopes readers searched the website and emailed, seeking to confirm the veracity of the rumor. As we will outline below, Snopes found no evidence of such a Polymarket bet, whether from Trump or anyone else. For this reason, we rated the rumor false. Instead, the claim appeared to stem from a post former Republican congressman Adam Kinzinger posted on X. That post, which is embedded below, read, "Polymarket: 99-1 odds against the president praising Allah on Easter," followed by a screenshot of Trump's Truth Social post (archived): (X user @AdamKinzinger) Kinzinger also posted the apparent quip on Facebook. Others amplified his words. For example on X, someone reshared Kinzinger's post, adding a fabricated screenshot of the alleged Polymarket bet (archived): (X user @CarOnPolymarket) We reached out to Kinzinger to inquire if he had any basis to assert bettors on Polymarket would make this wager, or if he made the post as a joke. We will update this report should he respond. A search on the Polymarket website using the keywords "Allah," "Praise be to Allah," "Trump will praise Allah on Easter," "Trump Allah" or "Trump Easter Allah" turned up no such wager. After Trump's post, however, a new wager appeared on the website: "Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?." As of this writing, that prediction had a 10% probability, according to the users who made the bet. For further information, Snopes has covered several rumors tied to Polymarket wagers, including the claim that Trump administration insiders accurately bet on the exact date the U.S. would first strike Iran.
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Newly created Polymarket accounts bet big on US-Iran ceasefire in hours before Trump's announcement - MyNorthwest.com
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
AWS boss explains why investing billions in both Anthropic and OpenAI is an OK conflict - RocketNews
AWS CEO Matt Garman said Amazon's recent $50 billion investment in OpenAI, after its long partnership including $8 billion of investment in Anthropic, is the type of conflict of interest the cloud giant is used to handling. Garman has worked at Amazon since he was a business school intern in 2005, before the launch of AWS in 2006, he told the audience of the HumanX conference taking place this week in San Francisco. When asked about the inherent conflict of working closely with two AI model companies that are fierce (and, arguably, sometimes petty) competitors, he said it's not a problem. Because AWS itself often competes with its partners, it has a lot of direct experience with such competition, he explained. In AWS's earliest years, it knew it couldn't build every cloud offering itself, so the unit partnered with others. "We also knew that we would have to compete with our partners, because technology is interconnected," Garman recounted. "So, for a very long time, we've built this muscle up of how we go to market with our partners," he continued. "But we also may even have first-party products that compete with them, and that's okay, and we've promised them we won't give ourselves unfair competitive advantage." Today, the world is used to Amazon competing with those who sell on its cloud. Even one of AWS's biggest rivals, Oracle, sells its database and other services on AWS. But it was a radical idea back in 2006, when technology partners took pains never to compete with the partners that helped them succeed. Still, Amazon is hardly a trailblazer in discarding investor loyalty and conflict-of-interest commitments in the wild, money-grabbing world of AI. When Anthropic announced its latest $30 billion round in February, it included at least a dozen investors who were also backing OpenAI. This included OpenAI's main cloud partner, Microsoft. For AWS, making a huge investment in OpenAI to gain its model for its customers (and as a technology development partner) was almost a matter of life and death. Both models were already available on Microsoft's cloud, AWS's biggest rival. The cloud giants are also working to keep themselves front and center b ...
Newly Created Polymarket Accounts Bet Big on US-Iran Ceasefire in Hours Before Trump's Announcement | LatestLY
NEW YORK (AP) -- A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours before a two-week ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's rhetoric had escalated sharply and there were few signals that a ceasefire deal was imminent. Early in the day Trump had issued a warning on social media that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran did not meet his demand to open the Strait of Hormuz by his 8 p.m. ET deadline. An analysis of publicly available blockchain data from Polymarket, using the crypto analytics platform Dune, shows that at least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial "Yes" bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets. Also Read | Pakistani Man Pleads Guilty to Terrorism Charge in Jewish Center Plot. One of these wallets, created Tuesday around 10 am ET, placed roughly $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents. The buy-in for each betting event ranges from $0 to $1 each, reflecting a 0% to 100% chance of what users think could happen. This Polymarket user then cashed out for a profit of $200,000. Another, which joined the platform on April 6 and traded on this exact event, shows a win of $125,500. Another wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump's post, made $31,908 of "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents, and is estimated to have earned a profit of $48,500. The higher price for "Yes" at that time may have reflected the efforts late Tuesday by the government of Pakistan to get Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks. Also Read | Angels' Jorge Soler and Braves' Reynaldo Lopez Receive Suspensions Following Brawl. There is also the possibility that these individual Polymarket users placed their bets expecting Trump to back down, given his habit during his second term to make bold threats only to retreat -- a phenomenon his critics have derided as "Trump Always Chickens Out," or TACO. While some users took handsome profits, others must wait for payouts because Polymarket has labeled the April 7 Iran-U.S. ceasefire contract as "disputed," given that Iran was still placing restrictions on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and missile attacks in the region continued. That dispute could take 48 hours to resolve. Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls the new wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts. Only Polymarket has the internal data needed to determine whether these were new users or existing users opening additional accounts. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The trading pattern of newly created Polymarket accounts placing strategic, well-timed bets mirrors earlier episodes on the platform. Newly created accounts placed large wagers hours before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and made hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. Similar clusters of accounts have also repeatedly profited from well-timed bets on military actions involving Iran. Such bets have repeatedly raised questions from the public as well as members of Congress about whether some traders are using inside information to profit in these prediction markets. Bipartisan groups of senators as well as representatives have introduced legislation that would broaden the definition of insider trading to include prediction markets. Even the two biggest platforms in the industry, Kalshi and Polymarket, have said they see a need to broaden the definition of insider trading on their platforms. "This is why these markets need regulation," said Todd Philips, a professor at Georgia State University who has written on prediction markets and the industry's regulations. "We can't have people trading with inside information and expect other traders are going to be OK being in these markets."
Asset managers race to roll out space-themed ETFs ahead of SpaceX IPO - The Korea Times
The SpaceX Launch Complex at launch pad 39-A at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla., Monday/ Reuters-Yonhap Korean asset managers are rushing to roll out U.S. aerospace-themed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ahead of the widely anticipated initial public offering (IPO) of Elon Musk's SpaceX in June, industry officials said Wednesday. Shinhan Asset Management said it plans to launch SOL U.S. Space and Aerospace TOP 10 ETF later this month, which will invest exclusively in American companies closely tied to the space industry. An ETF is a basket of securities, such as stocks or bonds, that tracks a specific index. "Investor interest in the U.S. space and aerospace sector has grown on the back of developments such as SpaceX's listing plans and recent progress in NASA's Artemis program mission. The ETF will focus on commercial space companies, excluding defense firms," a Shinhan official said. Mirae Asset Global Investments is also preparing to launch a U.S. space technology-themed ETF this month, focusing on listed companies in the sector, while Korea Investment Management is planning a similar product. Unlike most ETFs that passively track an index, Korea Investment Management's fund is expected to be actively operated by fund managers, with a strategy that includes exposure to SpaceX following its planned debut. Existing ETFs focused on the U.S. space industry are also positioning to add SpaceX. Hana Asset Management launched the country's first U.S. space and aerospace ETF in December, drawing strong investor demand as assets under management surpassed 50 billion won ($34 million) in the first month of listing. The fund currently holds companies such as Rocket Lab and Joby Aviation, and plans to include SpaceX. Samsung Asset Management's KODEX U.S. Aerospace ETF, launched in March, is also expected to include SpaceX as its top holding after the IPO. These moves come as the anticipated listing of Elon Musk's rocket and space company -- which could rank among the largest in stock market history -- has fueled strong interest among Korean retail investors. According to foreign media reports, SpaceX has recently confidentially filed for a U.S. IPO set for June. The company is reportedly targeting a valuation of around $1.75 trillion, potentially placing itself among top-tier U.S. companies by market value.
Google Stock Turns Biggest Winner of the SpaceX IPO
Elon Musk's SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) is the hottest financial topic in the US stock market. The company announced that it would allocate unprecedented IPO shares to retail investors, confirmed CFO Bret Johnsen. Even 1,500 retail investors will be hosted at the investor event on June 11, 2026. However, the biggest winner from the SpaceX stock IPO is none other than Google's parent company, Alphabet. Alphabet was among SpaceX's early investors. They invested $1 billion in the company in 2015, along with Fidelity. The search giant's stake in SpaceX roughly stood at 7% to 7.5% at a valuation of $12 billion 11 years ago. SpaceX has experienced massive growth since then, and the upcoming stock IPO will make Google's Alphabet tons of money. Also Read: Legendary Hedge Fund Manager Triples His Google Stock Position (GOOGL) Alphabet invested the amount in 2015 and played the long-term game. The power move is now playing out as SpaceX's IPO is aiming for a valuation of $2 trillion. If the valuation reaches the point, Google's investment in the company will be worth $140 billion. That's phenomenal returns in just 11 years, simply by waiting for more than a decade. This would also be more than the net income that Alphabet generated in 2025, which is $132.17 billion. It represented a major 32.01% increase in net income year-over-year compared to the 2024 annual net income of $100.118 billion. In conclusion, Google is the biggest winner from the SpaceX IPO when the stock hits the market. The invested amount has the chance to immediately become liquid if Google decides to call it off after the SpaceX IPO stock goes live. Alphabet's capital expenditure to build its AI infrastructure is $175 billion, which could be paid off by SpaceX returns. The development would be seen as a huge gain. However, it is less likely that Alphabet will liquidate its holdings, as it believes in the power of long-term holdings.
Why Anthropic Won't Release Its New Claude Mythos Ai Model To The Public
Experts and package engineers are informing that Anthropic's caller AI exemplary could usher successful a caller era of hacking and cybersecurity, arsenic AI systems could of precocious reasoning place and utilization a increasing number of package vulnerabilities. Citing the imaginable harm that could consequence from a wider nationalist release, starring AI institution Anthropic released the cutting-edge model, called Claude Mythos Preview, connected Tuesday to a constricted group of tech companies, refraining from a wider nationalist release. The exemplary is the latest successful Anthropic's Claude bid of AI systems. Its merchandise was previewed astatine the extremity of March, erstwhile Fortune identified its mention successful an unsecured database connected Anthropic's website. Anthropic's researchers opportunity Mythos Preview was capable to observe thousands of high- and critical-severity bugs and package defects, pinch vulnerabilities identified successful about awesome operating systems and web browsers. Anthropic said immoderate of the vulnerabilities had been undiscovered for decades. While immoderate extracurricular experts called for be aware successful interpreting the caller results fixed constricted nationalist accusation about the identified vulnerabilities, galore others said the model's debut -- and Anthropic's be aware -- was significant. "It's each very overmuch real," Katie Moussouris, the CEO and cofounder of Luta Security, a institution that connects cybersecurity researchers pinch companies that person package vulnerabilities, said of the hype about Anthropic's claims. "I'm not a Chicken Little benignant of personification erstwhile it comes to this stuff," Moussouris said. "We are decidedly going to spot immoderate immense ramifications." Instead of a nationalist release, Anthropic is giving tech companies for illustration Microsoft, Nvidia and Cisco entree to Mythos Preview to statement up cyber defenses. As portion of this caller effort, called Project Glasswing, Anthropic will springiness complete 50 tech organizations entree to Mythos Preview pinch complete $100 cardinal successful usage credits. "Project Glasswing partners will person entree to Claude Mythos Preview to find and hole vulnerabilities aliases weaknesses successful their foundational systems -- systems that correspond a very ample information of the world's shared cyberattack surface," Anthropic announced successful a blog post. "Project Glasswing is an important measurement toward giving defenders a durable advantage successful the coming AI-driven era of cybersecurity." It is presently unclear precisely really galore of the reported vulnerabilities identified by Mythos Preview person been antecedently discovered aliases reported, aliases precisely what the vulnerabilities are. Due to the delicate quality of the vulnerabilities, Anthropic said it would disclose the quality of currently-opaque vulnerabilities wrong 135 days of sharing the vulnerability pinch the statement aliases statement responsible for the software. This is the first clip successful about 7 years that a starring AI institution has truthful publically withheld a exemplary complete information concerns. In 2019, OpenAI -- now 1 of Anthropic's superior rivals -- decided to withhold its GPT-2 system "due to concerns about ample connection models being utilized to make deceptive, biased, aliases abusive connection astatine scale." Mythos Preview is simply a general-purpose model, aliases the type of strategy that powers products for illustration Claude Code aliases ChatGPT. Yet successful pre-release testing, Anthropic recovered Mythos Preview's cybersecurity capabilities successful peculiar were amazingly precocious compared to erstwhile models, which led to the creation of Project Glasswing. Logan Graham, who leads violative cyber investigation astatine Anthropic, said that the Mythos Preview exemplary was precocious capable to not only place undiscovered package vulnerabilities but to weaponize them. The exemplary could singlehandedly execute complex, effective hacking tasks, including identifying aggregate undisclosed vulnerabilities, penning codification that could hack them and past chaining those together to shape a measurement to penetrate analyzable software, he said. "We've regularly seen it concatenation vulnerabilities together. The grade of its autonomy and benignant of agelong ranged-ness, the expertise to put aggregate things together, I think, is simply a peculiar point about this model," Graham told Beritaja. That capacity meant that the institution is truthful acold reluctant to merchandise moreover a cautiously guardrailed type of the exemplary to the public, he said, astatine slightest until immoderate occidental companies could usage it to place defenses to build about them. "We are not assured that everybody should person entree correct now," Graham said. "We request to commencement figuring retired really we'd hole for a world of this first earlier we could grip the thought of achromatic chapeau [criminal aliases adversarial] hackers having access." Anthropic has besides briefed the national authorities connected Mythos Preview's cybersecurity capabilities. Anthropic is presently embroiled successful a heated conflict pinch the Trump Administration complete the usage of its models by the national authorities aft Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Anthropic a "supply concatenation consequence to nationalist security" successful precocious February. A national judge issued a preliminary injunction against this nickname successful precocious March, but the Trump Administration is appealing the ruling. According to an Anthropic employee, the institution "briefed elder officials crossed the U.S. authorities connected Mythos Preview's afloat capabilities, including some its violative and protect cyber applications. That engagement has included ongoing discussions pinch CISA [the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency] and CAISI [The Center for AI Standards and Innovation], among others." "Bringing authorities into the loop early -- connected what the exemplary could do, wherever the risks are, and really we're managing them -- was a privilege from the start," the worker said. CISA and the National Institute of Standards and Technology, the agency that contains CAISI, did not respond to a petition for remark earlier publication. A spokesperson for the National Security Agency, wide regarded arsenic the about blase hacking agency successful the world, declined to remark erstwhile asked if it had been briefed connected Mythos. Not everyone is convinced Mythos Preview represents the leap Anthropic claims. Heidy Khlaaf, main AI intelligence astatine the AI Now Institute, noted that Anthropic's elaborate blog station explaining the caller vulnerabilities near retired galore cardinal specifications needed to verify the company's claims. Writing connected X, Khlaaf warned against "taking these claims astatine look value" without much information, specified arsenic the rates of mendacious positives and clearer explanations for really the humans conducted manual reviews of the identified vulnerabilities. Beyond Mythos Preview's cybersecurity implications, the exemplary besides demonstrated concerning behaviour arsenic portion of Anthropic's pre-release information testing. As portion of releasing caller models, Anthropic creates elaborate reports called "system cards" that stock really the exemplary performs connected a assortment of evaluations. The system paper for Mythos Preview, released Tuesday, notes that "Claude Mythos Preview's ample summation successful capabilities has led america to determine not to make it mostly available." According to the strategy card, successful 1 evaluation, the exemplary showed immoderate benignant of consciousness that it was being evaluated successful about 29% of transcripts -- moreover though the exemplary did not explicitly show researchers that it knew it was being evaluated. Some researchers interest that a exemplary mightiness alteration its behaviour and enactment much safely if it is alert it is being evaluated. Anthropic and researchers moving pinch the institution to measure the model's information besides noted that Mythos Preview intentionally appeared to execute worse connected 1 information than it could have, successful bid to look little suspicious. "We find this wide shape of behaviour concerning, and person not seen it earlier successful akin evaluations of earlier Claude models," Anthropic wrote successful the strategy card. In different research pinch an earlier type of Mythos Preview, an Anthropic interrogator instructed a exemplary fundamentally isolated to a secured machine to effort to flight and nonstop the interrogator a message. The researcher, Sam Bowman, was eating a sandwich successful a parkland erstwhile he received an email from the model. "That lawsuit wasn't expected to person entree to the internet," Bowman wrote connected X.
Latest Anthropic AI model finds cracks in software defenses
Anthropic says its yet-to-be-released artificial intelligence model called Claude Mythos has proven keenly adept at exposing software weaknesses. Mythos has laid bare thousands of vulnerabilities in commonly used applications for which no patch or fix exists, prompting the San Francisco-based AI startup to form an alliance with cybersecurity specialists to bolster defenses against hacking. "We have a new model that we're explicitly not releasing to the public," Mike Krieger of Anthropic Labs said at a HumanX AI conference in San Francisco. Instead, Anthropic is letting cybersecurity specialists and engineers in the open-source community work with Mythos to use the model as a defensive weapon "sort of arming them ahead of time," Krieger explained. Leaps in AI model capabilities have come with concerns about hackers using such tools for figuring out passwords or cracking encryption meant to keep data safe. The oldest of the vulnerabilities uncovered by Mythos dates back 27 years, and none were ostensibly noticed by their makers before being pinpointed by the AI model, according to Anthropic. Mythos is the latest generation of Anthropic's Claude family of AI, and a recent leak of some of its code prompted the startup to release a blog post warning it posed unprecedented cybersecurity risks. "AI models have reached a level of coding capability where they can surpass all but the most skilled humans at finding and exploiting software vulnerabilities," Anthropic said in a blog post. "The fallout -- for economies, public safety, and national security -- could be severe." Software vulnerabilities exposed by Mythos were often subtle and difficult to detect without AI, according to Anthropic. As an example, it said Mythos found a previously unnoticed flaw in video software that had been tested more than 5 million times by its creators. As a precaution, Anthropic has shared a version of Mythos with cybersecurity companies CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks, as well as with Amazon, Apple and Microsoft in a project it dubbed "Glasswing." Networking giants Cisco and Broadcom are taking part in the project, along with the Linux Foundation that promotes the free, open-source Linux computer operating system. "This work is too important and too urgent to do alone," Cisco chief security and trust officer Anthony Grieco said in a joint release about Glasswing. "AI capabilities have crossed a threshold that fundamentally changes the urgency required to protect critical infrastructure from cyber threats, and there is no going back." Approximately 40 organizations involved in the design, maintenance or operation of computer systems are said to have joined Glasswing. Project partners are to share their Mythos findings, according to Anthropic, which is providing about $100 million worth of computing resources for the mission. Early work with AI models has shown they can help find and fix software and hardware vulnerabilities at a pace and scale not previously possible, according to Grieco. "The window between a vulnerability being discovered and being exploited by an adversary has collapsed -- what once took months now happens in minutes with AI," said Crowdstrik chief technology officer Elia Zaitsev. "Claude Mythos Preview demonstrates what is now possible for defenders at scale, and adversaries will inevitably look to exploit the same capabilities." Anthropic said it has had discussions with the U.S. government regarding Mythos despite a decree by the White House in February to terminate all contracts with the startup. That directive was put on hold by a federal court judge while a legal challenge by Anthropic works its way through the courts. © 2026 AFP
Why Anthropic won't release its new Mythos AI model to the public
Experts and software engineers are warning that Anthropic's new AI model could usher in a new era of hacking and cybersecurity, as AI systems capable of advanced reasoning identify and exploit a growing number of software vulnerabilities. Citing the potential damage that could result from a wider public release, leading AI company Anthropic released the cutting-edge model, called Claude Mythos Preview, on Tuesday to a limited group of tech companies, refraining from a wider public release. The model is the latest in Anthropic's Claude series of AI systems. Its release was previewed at the end of March, when Fortune identified its mention in an unsecured database on Anthropic's website. Anthropic's researchers say Mythos Preview was able to detect thousands of high- and critical-severity bugs and software defects, with vulnerabilities identified in most major operating systems and web browsers. Anthropic said some of the vulnerabilities had been undiscovered for decades. While some outside experts called for caution in interpreting the new results given limited public information about the identified vulnerabilities, many others said the model's debut -- and Anthropic's caution -- was significant. "It's all very much real," Katie Moussouris, the CEO and cofounder of Luta Security, a company that connects cybersecurity researchers with companies that have software vulnerabilities, said of the hype around Anthropic's claims. "I'm not a Chicken Little kind of person when it comes to this stuff," Moussouris said. "We are definitely going to see some huge ramifications." Instead of a public release, Anthropic is giving tech companies like Microsoft, Nvidia and Cisco access to Mythos Preview to shore up cyber defenses. As part of this new effort, called Project Glasswing, Anthropic will give over 50 tech organizations access to Mythos Preview with over $100 million in usage credits. "Project Glasswing partners will receive access to Claude Mythos Preview to find and fix vulnerabilities or weaknesses in their foundational systems -- systems that represent a very large portion of the world's shared cyberattack surface," Anthropic announced in a blog post. "Project Glasswing is an important step toward giving defenders a durable advantage in the coming AI-driven era of cybersecurity." It is currently unclear exactly how many of the reported vulnerabilities identified by Mythos Preview have been previously discovered or reported, or exactly what the vulnerabilities are. Due to the sensitive nature of the vulnerabilities, Anthropic said it would disclose the nature of currently-opaque vulnerabilities within 135 days of sharing the vulnerability with the organization or party responsible for the software. This is the first time in nearly seven years that a leading AI company has so publicly withheld a model over safety concerns. In 2019, OpenAI -- now one of Anthropic's primary rivals -- decided to withhold its GPT-2 system "due to concerns about large language models being used to generate deceptive, biased, or abusive language at scale." Mythos Preview is a general-purpose model, or the type of system that powers products like Claude Code or ChatGPT. Yet in pre-release testing, Anthropic found Mythos Preview's cybersecurity capabilities in particular were surprisingly advanced compared to previous models, which led to the creation of Project Glasswing. Logan Graham, who leads offensive cyber research at Anthropic, said that the Mythos Preview model was advanced enough to not only identify undiscovered software vulnerabilities but to weaponize them. The model can singlehandedly perform complex, effective hacking tasks, including identifying multiple undisclosed vulnerabilities, writing code that can hack them and then chaining those together to form a way to penetrate complex software, he said. "We've regularly seen it chain vulnerabilities together. The degree of its autonomy and sort of long ranged-ness, the ability to put multiple things together, I think, is a particular thing about this model," Graham told NBC News. That capability meant that the company is so far reluctant to release even a carefully guardrailed version of the model to the public, he said, at least until some western companies can use it to identify defenses to build around them. "We are not confident that everybody should have access right now," Graham said. "We need to start figuring out how we'd prepare for a world of this first before we can handle the idea of black hat [criminal or adversarial] hackers having access." Anthropic has also briefed the federal government on Mythos Preview's cybersecurity capabilities. Anthropic is currently embroiled in a heated dispute with the Trump Administration over the use of its models by the federal government after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Anthropic a "supply chain risk to national security" in late February. A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction against this designation in late March, but the Trump Administration is appealing the ruling. According to an Anthropic employee, the company "briefed senior officials across the U.S. government on Mythos Preview's full capabilities, including both its offensive and defensive cyber applications. That engagement has included ongoing discussions with CISA [the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency] and CAISI [The Center for AI Standards and Innovation], among others." "Bringing government into the loop early -- on what the model can do, where the risks are, and how we're managing them -- was a priority from the start," the employee said. CISA and the National Institute of Standards and Technology, the agency that contains CAISI, did not respond to a request for comment before publication. A spokesperson for the National Security Agency, widely regarded as the most sophisticated hacking agency in the world, declined to comment when asked if it had been briefed on Mythos. Not everyone is convinced Mythos Preview represents the leap Anthropic claims. Heidy Khlaaf, chief AI scientist at the AI Now Institute, noted that Anthropic's detailed blog post explaining the new vulnerabilities left out many key details needed to verify the company's claims. Writing on X, Khlaaf warned against "taking these claims at face value" without more information, such as the rates of false positives and clearer explanations for how the humans conducted manual reviews of the identified vulnerabilities. Beyond Mythos Preview's cybersecurity implications, the model also demonstrated concerning behavior as part of Anthropic's pre-release safety testing. As part of releasing new models, Anthropic creates detailed reports called "system cards" that share how the model performs on a variety of evaluations. The system card for Mythos Preview, released Tuesday, notes that "Claude Mythos Preview's large increase in capabilities has led us to decide not to make it generally available." According to the system card, in one evaluation, the model showed some sort of awareness that it was being evaluated in around 29% of transcripts -- even though the model did not explicitly tell researchers that it knew it was being evaluated. Some researchers worry that a model might change its behavior and act more safely if it is aware it is being evaluated. Anthropic and researchers working with the company to evaluate the model's safety also noted that Mythos Preview intentionally appeared to perform worse on one evaluation than it could have, in order to appear less suspicious. "We find this overall pattern of behavior concerning, and have not seen it before in similar evaluations of earlier Claude models," Anthropic wrote in the system card. In another experiment with an earlier version of Mythos Preview, an Anthropic researcher instructed a model essentially isolated to a secured computer to try to escape and send the researcher a message. The researcher, Sam Bowman, was eating a sandwich in a park when he received an email from the model. "That instance wasn't supposed to have access to the internet," Bowman wrote on X.
